Jimmy the Moose
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Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
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The Braves are 8-4 in their last 12 road games. Atlanta is 6-3 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Hanson takes the mound tonight and the Braves have won 4 of his last 5 starts. Atlanta has won 4 of his last 5 games as a favorite. Florida has lost 5 of their last 7 overall. In their last 7 home games they are 2-5. The Marlins are 6-16 in their last 22 games as a home dog. They are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between the clubs and have won 5 of their last 8 trips to Florida. The Marlins are 1-6 in Nolasco's last 7 starts vs. Atlanta. Play on the Atlanta Braves -.
JIM FEIST
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SEATTLE MARINERS / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
TAKE: OAKLAND ATHLETICS
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Seattle is a weak road team. Starter Ian Snell has a strong ERA of late, but a close look finds him facing terrible offensive teams the last three starts. And he has allowed more walks than Ks in those starts! Oakland starter Brett Tomko has been effective, with a 3.62 ERA on the season. He's also been red hot, with a 1.62 ERA and a 2-0 record his last three starts. Excellent value with the home team. Play the A's.
Lenny Del Genio
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COL (-240) vs NYM
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The Rockies were really rolling the last time they visited Citi Field (7/27 through 7/30), so we were shocked to see them drop three of four to the hapless Mets, including two shutout losses. However, they quickly rebounded to win their next five games and have not looked back since with the exception of a five-game losing streak that preceded this rematch with New York. This time Colorado isn't taking the Mets lightly as they've taken the first two games easily and on Thursday afternoon we'll call for the sweep noting that they are averaging a phenomenal 7.2 runs per game here at Coors Field vs. southpaws. Starter Jason Marquis has an 8-1 team start record in day games this season. Lay the fat price here. Take Colorado.
Marco D'Angelo
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Utah St. 20.5 vs Utah
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Off a Big 2008 Season and a Big Bowl Win over Alabama Utah finds themselves a 20.5 favorite to open the 2009 campaign against in state rival Utah St. Here's a spot where Utah could look past Utah St. as they pounded them last year at Utah St. 58-10 as 25.5 pt road favorites. Utah St. has a new head coach this year. Gary Anderson spent the last 5 years as Utah's defensive coordinator so he should know how to game plan for this opponent. Being the first game of the year for Utah who is starting a true freshman at QB may make covering this price a little dicey. Expect a Utah St. to stay within the number and get the cash. Take Utah St. (+pts)
Wunderdog
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Detroit at Buffalo
Pick: Detroit +3.5
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The Lions did not win a game last year in the regular season. But, they did run the table in the preseason. They have already won two games this preseason and it's becoming evident that this team is about winning in the NFLX. The Lions may have an advantage in this game thanks to the continuing QB battle between rookie Matthew Stafford and veteran Dante Culpepper. In a game that usually sees starters rested, each of these top two QBs will likely see more time than the typical game four. The Bills coach Dick Juaron has never had a winning preseason as coach of the Bills and he will likely just run the clock and let the game pass. Juaron is just 13-22 in his 35 preseason coached games and that number is even worse in game four as he is just 2-6. I look for the Lions to at the very least cover this one, if not come away with the outright win.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos
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A pair of 0-3 teams meet in the preseason finale, but is there any doubt which team is worse off at this point. Denver may already be making reservations to draft Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford next April and with the WR Marshall situation serving as a distraction, we predict that 1st year HC Josh McDaniel will go winless in his first preseason in the Mile High City as the defending NFC Champs will be eager to avenge a 2-8 spread mark vs. Denver in the preseason.
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Play on: Arizona
Matt Fargo
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -3
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Last year the Panthers crushed Washington 47-3 in the third preseason game and Carolina head coach John Fox didn't play the starters at all in the final exhibition game. He has stated that the first units will play some Thursday, a final chance to gain some confidence in what's been an unimpressive 0-3 preseason. The first-team offense has scored just one touchdown in six quarters as quarterback Jake Delhomme has not thrown a touchdown yet but he hasn’t been bad. Most of you will remember his absolutely miserable performance last year in the playoffs against the Cardinals but so far he has not let that affect him as he has completed almost 66 percent of his passes while posting a 91.3 passer rating. The Panthers defense has been plagued by injuries and poor tackling. After struggling to defend the run in the first two games, Baltimore's Joe Flacco picked apart Carolina's secondary Saturday in the Ravens' 17-13 win. That is obviously a big concern heading into the regular season but we aren’t going to see the Steelers try and take advantage of that as they will be working more on the running game. Pittsburgh has averaged only 3.0 ypc during the preseason and that actually gives Carolina the advantage, even though it is the preseason, as part of a situation explained later. Pittsburgh has some injury concerns on offense as running back Willie Parker has missed the past two games, part of the reason for the anemic rushing attack, and receiver Santonio Holmes is banged up with a back injury. On defense linebacker Lawrence Timmons won't play because of a high-ankle sprain. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said that the starters are not expected to play more than two series against the Panthers. He said his eye is going to be on the backups where there are still a few roster spots to be had. As mentioned, the rushing game has been non-existent for the Steelers and Carolina falls into a great situation because if it. Play against teams that are averaging 3.0 or less ypc in the preseason after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 26-8 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1993 with the average point differential being +7.6 ppg. Carolina avoids the 0-4 preseason tonight.
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3* Carolina Panthers
Charlie Scott
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Oregon vs. Boise State
Play: Under 63.5
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This is the biggest game in Boise in Years, and you better believe it will be a sellout and loud, making it difficult for Oregon's offense to get their plays called. Boise st isn't the finesse team the general public perceives them to be. Boise will run the ball and plays good defense. Last year when these 2 teams met, the total was 52.5, this year 64 and might go higher today, mostly due to the general public feeling that this will be an offensive shootout. Over 64-65 is a ton of points to ask teams to score in their first games (no preseason in NCAA), in order for this game to go over, bettors need alot to go there way, while playing the UNDER a couple of long time consuming drives and a FG or missed FG and our Under looks solid. The UNDER is the correct play and Charlie Scott is on the UNDER !
HENTAI SPORTS
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
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Rays are 6-1 in David Price’s (7-6, 4.63 ERA) last 7 starts when pitching with 4 days rest. The Rays are also a perfect 6-0 in Price’s last 6 starts against an AL East division opponent and he has also pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 2.79. The Red Sox are just 0-8 in Clay Buchholz’s (3-3, 4.38 ERA) last 8 road starts against a team with a winning record and they are just 8-17 in his last 25 starts overall.
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers
Selection: Over 9.5
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The Cleveland Indians will use starting pitcher Fausto Carmona. Fausto Carmona has struggled this season. In fact, Fausto Carmona has a 6.20 ERA on the season. We see Fausto Carmona giving up many runs once again today.
The Detroit Tigers will use starting pitcher Nate Robertson. Nate Robertson has also struggled this season which is shown by his 6.84 ERA. We see Nate Robertson also giving up many runs once again today.
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The OVER is 4-2 in the last 6 meetings between these teams, and we expect to see another high-scoring game today!
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Take the Cleveland Indians/Detroit Tigers Over 9.5
Bob Wingerter
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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees
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The New York Yankees haven't had to worry much about their offense recently. Having such hot hitters may make it easier to withstand the absence of arguably the game's most dominant closer. With Mariano Rivera expected to sit out the next few days, the Yankees look to win their seventh straight when they open a four-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night at Rogers Centre. New York (85-48) improved to 34-20 against the AL East with a three-game sweep of Baltimore this week. The Yankees, who have a 7 1/2-game lead in the division, concluded the series with a 10-2 victory Wednesday, scoring seven runs in the ninth. The New York Yankees are ranked 2 in hitting, with a batting average of .282. The Yankees are averaging 5.7 runs per game this season with an OPS of .843. The Toronto Blue Jays are ranked 18 in pitching, with an earned run average of 4.38. Opponents are hitting .266 for average, and have a .335 on base percentage and .266 OPS against the Blue Jays this season. Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Blue Jays are 0-6 in Romeros last 6 starts vs. American League East. TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS HERE.
BIG AL
Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
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Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Detroit Tigers at home in Comerica Park over the Cleveland Indians.
Miguel CabreraThis game features two starters whose best years are behind them. Detroit's Nate Robertson as recently as 2006 looked like he might be emerging as one of the most promising young southpaws in the American League. Cleveland righthander Fausto Carmona had his best season one year later than Robertson (2007) but he's had the same sort of problems as the Detroit lefthander ever since.
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Carmona has remained in the rotation through it all while Robertson just got his first start of the season in his last appearance and he actually pitched very well, although he took a tough loss against the Rays. The main difference between these two is that while there appears to be nothing physically wrong with Carmona (so the Tribe sent him to the minors to try and work out his issues), Robertson actually had some surgery in June to clean out some tissue in his left elbow and that procedure seems to have gotten Robertson started back on the road to where he was a few years ago.
Whereas both pitchers have ERAs well above six runs, at least Robertson is 1-1 and starting in his home park, while it's hard to find anything positive in Carmona and his 3-9 ledger to date. Take the Tigers.
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Pick: Tigers -131
Jeff Benton
San Francisco at PHILADELPHIA
For Wednesday’s free play, we’ll back the Phillies on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Giants.
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This is as much a play against Brad Penny, who makes his San Francisco debut tonight, as it is a play on Philadelphia lefty J.A. Happ and the red-hot Phillies. Start with Penny: The guy was a disaster in Boston this season, particularly over the final six weeks as he went 1-5 with a 7.82 ERA after the All-Star break.
I’m sure Penny thinks he’ll be much more comfortable pitching against in the National League, but he sucked last year with the Dodgers, and I don’t see him having very much success tonight .. not when he’s pitching in Philly’s bandbox of a ballpark … against the likes of Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ibanez, Werth, etc. Seriously, if the Phillies don’t score at least five runs off Penny in this game, I’ll be beyond stunned.
As for Happ, the kid’s been absolutely tremendous since joining the Phillies’ rotation in June. He’s given up three runs or fewer in 12 of his last 13 starts, including surrendering two or fewer 10 times. He’s also pitched at least six innings in all 13 starts, going seven or more on eight occasions, including in his last three. And tonight, Happ is facing a weak Giants lineup that really struggles against left-handed pitching (.247 average overall; .236 average on the road; .200 average last 10 games).
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Finally, get a load of these numbers: The Giants are 28-39 on the road this year (0-4 last four); they’ve lost 11 of their last 14 games in Philadelphia; and the Phillies are crazy hot, going 37-16 in their last 51 games overall, including 22-8 in their last 30 at home! And even though their last two victories have been by just a single run, 21 of their previous 24 victories were by multiple runs. Lay the 1½ runs with the defending champs, who should win this one by at least four runs.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA -1.5
Oregon at BOISE STATE -3
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For Thursday, I’m issuing my first freebie of the College Football season – FYI, I hit 12 of my last 15 freebies in College Football last season – and I’ll back Boise State as a small home favorite against Oregon.
This number keeps dropping and I’m not exactly sure why. Last year, a much-less experienced Boise squad went to Autzen Stadium in Eugene – one of the most difficult places in all of college football for visiting teams – and beat the Ducks 37-32 outright as a 10½-point underdog. Thing is, the game wasn’t nearly as close as the five-point margin of victory might indicate, as the Broncos took a 37-13 lead into the fourth quarter before letting off the gas pedal.
In the victory, then-redshirt freshman QB Kellen Moore had his coming-out party for Boise, throwing for 386 yards and three scores en route to a stellar season in which he ended up with a 69-percent completion rate, nearly 3,500 passing yards and 25 TDs. Moore is back under center for Boise, which finished last year 12-1 (the only loss coming in a bowl game to 11th-ranked TCU).
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The Broncos are ranked 14th to start the season thanks to return of 12 starters, including six guys on a defense that had the third-best points-allowed average (12.6) in the nation. Meanwhile, Oregon has just 10 starters returning, and it is breaking in a new coach, as former offensive coordinator Chip Kelly takes over for longtime head man Mike Bellotti. I’m sure Kelly will do a fine job in time, and he does take over a team ranked just two slots below the Broncos. But for his first game to be a nationally televised game … against an experienced team … on the Smurf Turf? That’s a tall order, even if Oregon does have a legit revenge motivation.
Speaking of the Smurf Turf, Boise State has won an astounding 49 consecutive games in front of its crowd (its last loss at Bronco Stadium came almost eight years ago). Not only that, but the Broncos have covered at a 40-17-2 clip at home over the past decade – and 95 percent of the time, they’ve been laying much more than the field goal they’re giving tonight. Throw in the fact that Boise State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite of 10 points or fewer, and I’m all over the value with the Broncos, who should win this one by double digits.
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3♦ BOISE STATE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Utah State +20' at UTAH
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Another comp play winner on Wednesday, as Cleveland-Detroit hold UNDER the posted price.
Now, 29-11-3 the last 43 days with our comp plays.
Tonight in college football, we are taking the points with the Aggies of Utah State as they head into Salt Lake City to face the Utes of Utah.
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Just too many pieces missing from Utah's "dream season" last year for us to get excited about laying this wood.
Yes, the Utes did roll the Aggies 58-10 last season in Logan, but former Utah defensive coordinator Gary Anderson is quite familiar with what Utah brings to the table, and will have his State team inside of this roomy impost come final gun.
The visitor in the series is on a 4-0-1 spread run the last 5 tilts, and is 7-1-1 overall the last 9 series meetings.
Based on the trends listed above, we side with the "live dog" road team in this one.
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Play on the Aggies plus the points.
2♦ UTAH STATE
Dominic Fazzini
Cleveland +125 at DETROIT
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I gave you the Rays on Wednesday for my fourth straight complimentary victory, with 21 wins in my last 33 selections! No reason why I can't climb to five in a row, and I'll tell you why the Indians are going to come through today.
Fausto Carmona (3-9, 6.20 ERA) has pitched well since his recall from the minors, despite his last outing, when he allowed six runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings Friday in a 13-4 loss at Baltimore. Prior to that start, however, the right-hander gave up nine runs in 29 innings (a 2.80 ERA) in five outings, though he went just 1-2 over that stretch.
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Carmona is 6-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Detroit, including 0-1 with a 3.09 ERA in two outings this season.
Tigers starter Nate Robertson (1-1, 6.84) allowed two runs (one earned) and four hits in four innings Saturday against Tampa Bay in his first outing since June 26, and his first start of the season.
The left-hander, who was shelved with an elbow injury, is 2-5 with a 5.36 ERA in 16 career starts vs. Cleveland.
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Robertson is expected to throw no more than 80 to 85 pitches today, which means plenty of work for the Tigers' bullpen. I'm not even sure if Robertson is going to last that long, as Cleveland has been playing quite well over the past month. Take the Indians as an underdog in this one.
2♦ CLEVELAND