Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 4

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Detroit at Cleveland
The Indians look to follow up yesterday's 7-0 win over the Tigers and come into today's contest with a 5-0 record in Trevor Bauer's last 5 starts as a home underdog. Cleveland is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120)

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.419; Milwaukee (Peralta) 12.954
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under

Game 953-954: Arizona at San Diego (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 13.941; San Diego (Kennedy) 15.400
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-145); Under

Game 955-956: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Workman) 15.807; NY Yankees (Capuano) 14.658
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140); Over

Game 957-958: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.662; Cleveland (Bauer) 16.995
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120); Over

Game 959-960: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 16.282; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.226
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Under

Game 961-962: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Elias) 14.494; Texas (Ross) 15.555
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115); Under

Game 963-964: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santiago) 16.477; Minnesota (Gibson) 14.920
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Over

Game 965-966: Cincinnati at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.834; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.332
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-150); Over

Marc Lawrence

Packers at Seahawks
Pick: Under

Edges - Seahawks: 0-5-1 UNDER last six non-Sunday games, and 0-4-1 UNDER home openers, including 0-3-1 w/Carroll. Packers: 2-5 UNDER last seven non-Sundays. With the Packers defense vastly improved over last season’s unit and the Seahawks owning the top defense in the league last year, we recommend a 1-unit play niche UNDER in this game.

EZWINNERS

Green Bay Packers +5.5

I really like the Packers on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs to kick off the new season. Its not about the Packers remembering Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson throwing an interception to win the game, even though that will be on their minds, I really like the spot for Green Bay. The new enforcement of contact in the secondary will not affect any team more than the Seahawks and their physical "Legion of Boom" defense. Early in the season the refs will be calling this early and often and going up against Aaron Rodgers will really make this new enforcement magnified. The Packers ranked eighth in the NFL in scoring last season despite a rash of major injuries that included quarterback Aaron Rodgers himself missing multiple games. If they stay healthy they should be one of the top three offense's in the league. Seattle will once again be one of the top teams in the NFL. On offense they lost quarterback Russell Wilson's go to receiver in Golden Tate who signed with the Lions. Percy Harvin is healthy for now, but doesn't have the chemistry with Wilson just yet. I really like a focused Packers team plus the points in this spot against a Seattle team that will be enjoying their Super Bowl rings tonight. Take the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Green Bay +6 over SEATTLE

Are you ready? Nice way for the NFL to start off the season with a marquee match-up like the one here. The NFL markets better than any other sport so it should come as no surprise that NFL Fantasy Football is bigger than ever, (hell, even the players themselves are in leagues) and that betting on the game has never been so wipe spread. Of course, the Packers will be heading to CenturyLink field in Seattle, where they will renew what has become a bit of a rivalry with the defending Super Bowl champs. This is a tongue and cheek way to describe previous engagements between Seattle and Green Bay, but it is appropriate. The most memorable is the most recent occurrence when Green Bay traveled to Seattle on a Monday night and was robbed of a victory on what was an apparent Hail Mary touchdown pass that was called wrong by a surrogate officiating crew. This of course was a set of substitutes that were designated to call the game when the contracted NFL referees were on strike. Even John Gruden (among others) had a bitter taste in his mouth after watching the blatantly obvious miscue and this bitter pill is something the Packers have not forgotten. They can still see Seahawks coach, Pete Carroll running full speed up the sidelines with one finger pointing in the air (you know, the we’re #1 finger) after that miracle play and call by the refs. Instead of being a gentleman about it and winning with “class”, Carroll rubbed it in with that display. Opposing coaches and players are growing tired of Carroll’s antics and now teams want to beat the Seahawks more than ever. The call was so bad that even a couple of well-known sportsbooks refunded any money lost on the Packers as a gesture of good will.

There are some other intangibles and variables that can render the "12th Man" incapable of propelling the defending champs to a victory and one of them is Aaron Rodgers. When Rodgers is healthy, he has pinpoint precision and accuracy, delivering marvelous strikes while compiling prolific completion percentages and passing yardage. In fact, the Packers were 6-3 when Rodgers started and completed a game in 2013 and this accounted for 75% of their victories. In the two previous years in which Rodgers was healthy and played a full season, the Packers were 25-6 in the regular season and appeared twice in the playoffs. Most notably, with Rodgers at the helm, the Pack even captured a Super Bowl. To substantiate the will that Rodgers has imposed in his last three seasons, his regular season passing numbers are incredible and are as follows: 101 TD and 20 INT’s with an average completion percentage hovering around 67%. When Rodgers is at full health he can eclipse 4,000 yards passing in a full season. He is a quarterback that takes Green Bay's offense to a different level and he could very well be the best overall quarterback in the game. Match the presence of Rodgers with improvements to their defense, throw in six points with the best QB in the game, and it’s a bet we would make every time. Denver, with Peyton Manning at QB, wouldn’t be offered six points here if they were the opening game opponent. There isn’t a single argument that can be made for Denver’s offense being better than the Packers offense. As long as Rodgers is playing, it’s highly doubtful that we’ll see the Packers being offered a tag like the one here for the remainder of this season. Invest.

Season Win Total - Carolina Under 8½ -140

We never use the word “lock” or “guarantee” but in all of the years we’ve been doing this, this one looks as strong as or stronger than any of them. This number is so high because the Panthers won the division last year but this is not the same team. Not even close. Carolina's likelihood of a collapse starts with one of the strongest elements of forecasting in the NFL: Offense is more consistent from year to year than defense. That means a defense-first team such as Carolina is going to have a harder time duplicating success than an offense-first team such as Denver. Inconsistency is a bigger issue for the Carolina defense because three-fourths of its starting secondary from 2013 is gone in free agency. There's even more turnover on offense, and it's not exactly a good thing. Left tackle Jordan Gross retired with no clear replacement on the roster. The team turned over almost its entire wide receiver corps and is now depending on a 32-year-old vet coming off a fluke year (Jerricho Cotchery), a rookie who was widely regarded as a talented longer-term project (Kelvin Benjamin) and a serviceable slot receiver who would never scare anyone on the outside (Jason Avant).

Retirement ravaged the Panthers’ o-line this offseason; Byron Bell and Nate Chandler, a pair of athletic tackles, are being banked on to protect Cam Newton—a significantly iffier proposition than looking to a solid interior to once again pave the way for Carolina’s ground game. Cam Newton is an ordinary quarterback with declining yardage totals each season since his rookie debut. And he’s coming off ankle surgery. It barely matters that his already wafer-thin receiving corps was depleted even further in the offseason. After throwing for 374 yards or better in three of his first four NFL games, Newton has just four 300-yard games since—including one in his past 22 outings and the cast around him is worse now than it’s ever been. Carolina’s rushing attack not only gets worse each year, but it gets more split up as well. It is going on five years since any back ran more than 221 times in a season for Carolina. When DeAngelo Williams ended with 842 rush yards last year, it was the highest since 2008 for any running back there. With a weaker offensive line and weaker receiving corps to keep the opposing defenses honest expect less, not more out of this running game. To top it all off, the Panthers rank eighth in projected schedule strength because of their first place finish from a year ago, the toughest schedule of any of last year's division champions.

The Panthers open the year on the road against a much-improved Buccaneers squad followed by a home game against the Lions. Its next two games are against the Steelers at home and against the Ravens on the road. Carolina could open the year 0-4, 1-3 or 2-2 but then things get really tough. The Panthers next four games will be at home against Chicago followed by games at Cinci and Green Bay followed by a home game against the Seahawks. They’ll be thrilled to get one win in those four but an 0-4 stretch is a distinct possibility. Does it get easier after that? Actually, no it does not. After facing Seattle in Week 8, Carolina plays New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta. There is not an easy game or a gimme in their first 11 weeks and by that time, the Panthers could be 3-8, 2-9 or even 1-10 and it would not be a surprise. Add the physical toll (and mental toll of losing) of playing all those playoff bound teams and it’s not going to matter in the final five weeks what they do. Incidentally, the back-to-back games in Weeks 9 and 10 against New Orleans and Philly respectively are prime time games, one on Thursday and the other on Monday Night Football in Philadelphia. The Panthers close out their final five games In Minnesota, in New Orleans, at home to Tampa and Cleveland and finally at Atlanta to close out the regular season. Do you see 9 wins? We don’t see three wins and that’s with Cam Newton not getting injured. If you make one wager this season on total wins for the season, this is the one you should choose because the Panthers won’t come close to this number.

Season Win Total - Indianapolis Under 9½ -129

The sabermetrics revolution in baseball has been around long enough to warrant a bestselling book and a Hollywood film that had several Oscar nominations. Advanced statistics in football, however, has not even come close to a Moneyball moment. Sabermetrics looks under the hood of all stats to get a better barometer of what we’re dealing with and we mention this because you will see us using sabermetrics in our analysis of this wager and throughout the year. That brings us to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a sabermetric that you will hear about much more in the coming months.

DVOA EXPLAINED

One running back runs for three yards. Another running back runs for three yards. Which is the better run? This sounds like a stupid question, but it isn’t. Several factors can differentiate one three-yard run from another. What is the down and distance? Is it third-and-2 or second-and-15? Where on the field is the ball? Does the player get only three yards because he hits the goal line and scores? Is the player’s team up by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and thus running out the clock; or down by two touchdowns, and thus facing a defense that is playing purely against the pass? Is the running back playing against the porous defense of the Raiders, or the stalwart defense of the Seahawks? Conventional NFL statistics value plays based solely on their net yardage. The NFL determines the best players by adding up all their yards no matter what situations they came in or how many plays it took to get them. Now, why would they do that? Football has one objective -- to get to the end zone -- and two ways to achieve that -- by gaining yards and achieving first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player’s value or a team’s performance. All the yards in the world won’t help a team win if they all come in six-yard chunks on third-and-10. Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success. We’ll get back to DVOA later on in this write-up regarding the Colts and Andrew Luck.

When betting over/under win totals for the season we always look to go under because the win totals do not take into account the inevitable injuries that occur every week. Going over the number is actually a huge risk because any significant player or QB can be lost early in the season for several games or an entire year. It happens every week. That said, without a single injury these Colts will be hard pressed to go over 9½ wins. The reason that number is so high is twofold. First, the Colts have what is perceived as a franchise QB in Andrew Luck. Secondly, they won the division a year ago and therefore their stock is high and so is the htpe around them. Let us remind you that the Houston Texans and Washington Redskins both won their respective divisions in 2012. Last year, they combined to go 5-27. Teams turn over fast in the NFL, meaning that some of last year’s division winners could sink fast and we see the Colts as a team with a strong possibility of falling off miserably.

The Colts problems run deep. Indy has done a terrible job of putting other good young players around Andrew Luck and an even worse job of putting good young players on the defense that is supposed to keep opponents from outscoring Luck. This is a big part of why Luck has to keep coming back from such large deficits. But although Luck might truly be better than other quarterbacks when it comes to performing when down in the fourth quarter, there's no way he can maintain his current phenomenal numbers in late and close situations. Meanwhile, the team is heavily counting on two aging veterans. Reggie Wayne, who is coming off an ACL tear, and Robert Mathis, whose 2013 numbers stand out like a sore thumb when you look at his career progression. Oh, and he'll miss the first four games of the season with a suspension. Seriously, what is so appealing about this group? The 2010 through 2013 drafts have provided little in the way of foundational pieces. Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen -- who missed almost the entire 2013 season because of surgery on his hip -- are the only clearly valuable young players on the Colts' roster. Fleener has been categorically pedestrian. Anthony Castonzo is an adequate-at-best left tackle. Vick Ballard ruptured his Achilles tendon and will miss a second straight season. LaVon Brazill violated substance abuse protocol, was suspended for a year and then released. The only instant contributor from the 2013 draft was guard Hugh Thornton, who managed to lead all left guards in blown blocks last season. Defensive end Bjoern Werner still has potential, but he disappointed as a rookie. The Colts are brutal defensively and their offensive line may be the league’s worse. Andrew Luck without protection got very lucky last year but this year things figure to even out.

Luck finished ninth in total QB rating in 2013, and 11th in 2012. In the DVOA ratings Luck finished 19th and 16th among all qualifying quarterbacks during the past two seasons. Luck's conventional statistics add even more fuel to the fire. Luck's completion percentage was 54.9 percent in his rookie year, and it climbed to just 60.9 percent last season. You know, about the same as Chad Henne. But the tricky thing about statistics is that they are heavily dependent on context. Football statistics rely on the collective efforts of 11 players on each side of the ball. Andrew Luck's statistics may have "Andrew Luck" branded on them, but they're really something more like "Andrew Luck, throwing to T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener and fodder, selling the play-fake to a back who couldn't average three yards per carry in Indy, behind an offensive line that led the NFL in quarterback knockdowns allowed for the second straight season. Luck's so-so advanced statistics are generated not by Andrew Luck, but from the total output of the Indianapolis Colts. Unfortunately for Luck, the Colts may have the weakest non-quarterback roster in the NFL right now.

Yeah, the Colts play in a weak division and they play the Jags twice but all the AFC South teams (Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville) figure to be better this year and the Colts schedule is not a favorable one. They open the season in Denver and play Philadelphia in Week 2 on Monday Night Football. That’s two prime time games to open the year and they could easily be 0-2. They also play prime time games in Weeks 6, 9 and 11 at Houston, at New York Giants and home versus New England. That’s almost one third of their schedule in prime time. What follows prime time games are letdowns so victories in the subsequent weeks are always tough to come by, regardless of the competition. The Colts also have games in Dallas and Pittsburgh among others. The best teams in the NFL win 10, 11 or 12 games and the Colts will need 10 victories to beat us and frankly, we don’t see them being anything more than a .500 club and that’s if everything goes perfect.

SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA +113 over L.A. Angels

The Angels couldn’t get out of Houston fast enough. After reeling off six wins in a row, L.A. went into Houston for a two-game set and was outscored 12-4 in losing both games. Now the Halos go into Minnesota with Hector Santiago going to face the hottest offense in MLB. Minnesota’s 5.5 runs per game in August led the majors and the Twinkies have not slowed down in September with 20 runs scored in their first three September games. Santiago is 1-0 over his last five starts with an ERA of 1.93. That ERA run has this below average pitcher way overvalued. Santiago is a perfect example of surface stats being misleading. Truth is, Santiago has benefitted from extremely lucky hit and strand rates. Over those five aforementioned starts, Santiago has an unsustainable low hit rate of 24% and an even more unsustainable strand rate of 90%. Santiago manages to strike out a decent number of hitters (94 K’s in 107 IP) but he still walks too many batters and that K rate is unsupported by his 7% swing and miss rate. Santiago’s fastball velocity is heading in the wrong direction; it declined from 93.8 in 2011 to 91.8 in 2013 and tops out at 90.1 this season. Santiago has one of the worst groundball/fly-ball tilts in all of baseball which stands at a pathetic 29%/59%. Issuing too many walks with a serious fly-ball tilt is a combination that generally tends to produce blow-ups so it would come as no surprise to see a nasty outing from Santiago in this one.

The Twins will counter with Kyle Gibson. Gibson is hit and miss. He put up a rough 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in August in which his skills were mediocre at best. But keep in mind that his 11% swing and miss rate that month suggests there are more strikeouts to come. If Gibson can find a strikeout pitch against LH bats (3.9 K’s/9), he could finally cash in on his upside. Gibson has been hurt by an unlucky 67% strand rate this entire season. His strand rate over his last five games was even lower at 64%. The good news is that his 54% groundball rate is one of the best marks in the game and so is his 0.5 HR per game average. The seeds of a good pitcher are here and we’re suggesting that Gibson has a much better chance of throwing a gem or lasting deep than Santiago does.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twin +110

The Angels have dropped the last 2 struggling in Houston losing last night 4-1, while the Twins were blasting the Whitesox. We want o play against road teams like the Angels that are off a road favored loss and had 4 or less hits, that are playing an opponent off a home favored win. These teams are 1-14 straight up since 2004 and 0-10 if the home team won by 2 or more runs. They are 0-6 when favored like the Angles are tonight. The Twins will get a solid start from Gibson tonight and will look to take advantage of LA Lefty Santiago who has lost 7 of 9 on the road and has allowed 8 runs in 11 innings here. With Minnesota 11-2 at home off a home win by 5 or more runs where they scored 10 or more runs. We will back the Dog and Take Minnesota.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Sleepyj

Detroit Tigers -135

The Detroit Tigers will look to take a 4 game series by adding a third win tonight Vs. the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland managed to shutout the Tigers last night and put a damper on the Tigers recent hot run. The Tigers will look to shutout the Indians tonight as they turn to the Ace of the pitching staff with Max Sherzer. Sherzer on the year is 15-5 with a 3.26 ERA. Sherzer lost his time out and i think it's going to be hard to pin back to back losses here not only on Sherzer but on the Tigers tonight as well. The Indians will turn to Trevor Bauer who has pitched rather solid his last 4 starts. Bauer is 2-1 Vs. this Tiger lineup this year but i think tonight he finds himself in a jam here against the Tigers..The Tigers find themselves 1.5 games back in the division and tied for the Wildcard. With the Ace on the mound today i think we get a focused effort here from Sherzer and the Tigers. The Indians have been playing great ball for more than a week now, but i just feel the Tigers are a bit stronger and with Miguel Cabrera back in the box the Tigers are looking much better.

Jim Feist

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +132

San Diego is favored despite the worst offense in baseball. That struggling offense faces a good arm in Arizona's Vidal Nuno, who has allowed 1, 2, 2, 2 and 2 runs the last five starts. Nuno pitched eight excellent innings on Saturday against the Rockies, as he allowed one run on only two hits while striking out seven hitters. He has a 2.45 ERA against San Diego this season allowing 2 hits in 7 innings! Ian Kennedy has a losing record overall and has been getting hit, allowing 10 runs his last three starts (17+ innings). He has a 5.06 ERA against Arizona this season and a losing home mark.

Jesse Schule

St. Louis vs. Milwaukee
Play: Over 8

The Cardinals bats have come alive during a five game winning streak, and they will look to continue surging as they face the Brewers in Milwaukee tonight. The Brew Crew have lost eight in a row, and now sit three games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central.

Wily Peralta will toe the rubber for the Brewers, and he's been just hammered lately. Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA) has surrendered 14 runs on 16 hits over eight innings in his last two starts. He's had troubles with several of the Cardinals hitters in the past, including Matt Carpenter who's 6-for-15 with a home run and two RBIs lifetime, and Matt Holliday who is hitting .375 with a pair of home runs and five RBIs lifetime versus Peralta.

The Cardinals hand the ball to 23 year old Michael Wacha, who makes his first start since June. The right-hander has missed the last two months with a sore shoulder, and he's only pitched two innings in his rehab stint at Double-A Springfield. Wacha lost his only previous meeting with Milwaukee this year, giving up three runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings. He was also 0-5 with a 3.40 ERA in seven starts on the road prior to landing on the DL.

These teams have pushed the total over in 11 of the last 14 meetings in Milwaukee.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Jimmy Adams

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -109

The Brewers are a pure “Fade” team right now, plain and simple. This squad has lost 8 games in a row and just got their doors blown off by the subpar Cubs. They were outscored 17-5 in that series and are hitting just .211 since beginning this losing streak. To make matters worse, Carlos Gomez went down with an injured left wrist and Ryan Braun’s status is uncertain due to the birth of his child. The Brew Crew has given up the division lead due to this stretch of poor play, and they gave it to the team that’s coming into Miller Park tonight.

St. Louis is playing solid baseball right now, winners of 5 straight. They’ve won 7 of 12 meetings this year vs. Milwaukee and have also taken 12 of their last 16 at Miller Park. Michael Wacha comes off the disabled list for this one. He’s pitched well all year long and shouldn’t miss a beat facing the shorthanded Brewers lineup.

It’s Wily Peralta on the other side, a guy who gave up 6 runs in just 3 innings in his last start. Peralta has allowed a whopping 14 runs in just 8 innings throughout his last 2 starts. Something is clearly wrong with this guy, and he’s not likely to figure it out tonight. Take the Cardinals.

Will Rogers

Angels vs. Twins
Play: Over 8½

The Minnesota Twins scored five runs in the bottom of the fifth inning last night, defeating the White Sox by a score of 11-4. They will host the Angels in Game 1 of a four game set at Target Field tonight, and after seeing almost 100 runs (97) cross the plate in the last six games at Target Field, another high scoring tilt wouldn't surprise anyone.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Twins will send Kyle Gibson to the hill, and he's really struggled at home lately. Gibson (11-10, 4.23 ERA) was torched for 10 runs on 16 hits over 10 innings in losses to Detroit and Cleveland in his last two home starts. He has only pitched two innings versus the Angels this year, but that was a complete disaster, allowing seven runs before getting the hook. The Halos counter with Hector Santiago, who has struggled on the road this year.

2. Kennys Vargas - The 24 year old has impressed since joining the Twins, hitting .319 with six home runs and 31 RBIs in just 32 games. He's hit home runs in each of his last two games at Target Field.

3. X-Factor - These teams have trended toward high scoring games, with the total going over at a rate of 31-15-5 over the last 51 head to head meetings.

Matt Fargo

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +121

Toronto locked up its first series win in Tampa Bay since 2007 after winning last night and tonight it will go for the sweep as it looks to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Blue Jays have won four straight games and they need to keep taking advantage of the soft early part of September as including tonight, the next 10 games are against teams with a losing record before closing the season with 14 games against winning teams and that is where ground can be made up as long as they don't falter now. They are a respectable two games under .500 on the road and have won five straight games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has fallen apart after a mid-August run as it is 6-12 over its last 18 games including losses in eight of 11 at home. The Rays used to possess one of the best home field edges in baseball but this season they are nine games under .500 here. Mark Buehrle gets the ball for Toronto and he has not had a great few weeks as he has been all over the place. The good news is that he has dominated Tampa Bay this year, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four starts, all resulting in Toronto wins. Going back, the Blue Jays are 19-4 in Buehrle's last 23 starts against teams with a losing record. The Rays counter with Jake Odorizzi who has been pretty solid this season and he is coming off one of his best starts of the year as he allowed just one hit and no runs in seven innings against the Red Sox. This was the third time he allowed just one hit in a start and in the other two follow up starts, the Rays lost. The Rays are 3-9 in Odorizzi's last 12 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.

Matt Fargo's Featured Package

Scott Spreitzer

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Hector Santiago has pitched well for the Angels, allowing just 3 earned runs and 24 base runners in his last four starts, spanning 22 2/3 IP. Besides his stingy results of late, I expect the Angels to get back on track at the plate, where they're 22-11 in road night games against right-handers, averaging over 5 rpg. Kyle Gibson goes for the Twins and he's allowed 5 earned runs in three of his last five starts. The righty has a 5.19 ERA in his last six starts, overall, and was pounded for 7 earned runs and 6 base runners in just 2 innings in his lone outing against the Halos this season. The Angels are 36-16 off a loss, while the Twins are 3-11 in their last 14 as an underdog. I'm backing the Angels on Thursday.

Hollywood Sports

Arizona Wildcats at Tex San Antonio
Prediction: Tex San Antonio

Arizona (1-0) was dominant in their 58-13 win over UNLV last Friday where they outgained the Rebels by more than 400 yards of offense -- but the Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 20 points. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games played in the month of September, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. UTSA (1-0) comes off a 27-7 upset victory at Houston last week. Head coach Larry Coker has the benefit of the most experienced team in the FBS that returns twenty starters from last year's 7-5 team. The Road Runners have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. Take the points with UTSA at home.