Ray Monohan
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Toronto +120
The Blue Jays struggles at the Top are well documented but with the win yesterday they have already clinched their first series win there since 2007. Speaking of struggles Mark Buehrle is due to get his first win since July as he has been mostly good and and had two no decisions in games the Jays won against Tampa to go along with two victories over the Rays. The Jays have gotten healthier and the bats are going. Even if it might be too late take them in this one.
EZWINNERS
Texas San Antonio +7
The Roadrunners are coming off of the biggest win in the short history of the program last week at Houston and I love them in this spot as well. UTSA shutdown the high octane Houston offense last week and forced the Cougars into six turnovers. The week for their home opener they get another high powered Arizona offense that just killed UNLV last week, but this will be the first road start for the Wildcats freshmen quarterback Anu Solomon. On offense, the Roadrunners don't take many big shot down field. UTSA likes to run the ball and dink and dunk with play action which I think will be successful against an Arizona defense that has one of the small defensive front seven's in the Pac-12 conference. UTSA has won six straight games going back to last season and much like they did last week will be seeking revenge for a big loss at Arizona last season. Take the points.
Strike Point Sports
Green Bay +6 over Seattle
I know, I know, Seattle is dominant at home. I also know that they are coming off a Super Bowl win, and that doesn’t bode well. Super Bowl champs have a ton of pressure on their shoulders as they try and repeat the success they had the previous season. Green Bay’s offense is strong enough to keep pace with that vaunted Seattle defense as Rodgers can control the air and Lacy can control the ground. I am not saying that Green Bay will win this game, but it will be closer than people think. Green Bay has won six of their last eight games versus Seattle, including five in Seattle. Take the road dog in this one as Green Bay will cover this line in an entertaining fashion.
Indian Cowboy
Texas San Antonio +7 over Arizona
If you wait, you can probably get 7.5 or even closer to 8 by game time as the public is noticeably heavy on Arizona. You can call me crazy but I actually believe Texas San Antonio is going to get Arizona absolute fits on Thursday Night Football. We would not be a bit surprised to see Texas San Antonio take an early half-time lead into this contest. Stop and think about as to why a Pac team would only be favored by a touchdown over a relative newcomer in Texas San Antonio on the national scene? It’s because Texas has and will always be a bed rock of talent, and this Texas San Antonio team is one of the best unknown teams in the country. They will be soon be known following this Primetime Thursday Night Contest. Note that these two teams played last year, with Arizona winning 38-13 at home and UTSA covered as a 25.5-point underdog, and now they find themselves as just a 7-point underdog at home a year later. With revenge, with Arizona coming off a big win and UTSA having 6 straight wins dating back to last year, look for this contest to be much closer than people expect, and I have UTSA falling within the touchdown spread here.
Ben Burns
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Detroit Tigers -134
After taking the first two games of this series in Cleveland, the Tigers got shutout on Wednesday. I expect them to bounce back and take Thursday's finale.
Give Cleveland some credit for dusting itself off after a painful loss on Tuesday where they allowed a 3-run HR in the top of the ninth that was the difference. But they also lost 12-1 on Monday. The odds are not in their favor tonight as Max Scherzer is pitching for Detroit. The Cy Young winner, despite some recent struggles, still has a 19-9 team start record.
Scherzer has typically been very good in this spot. He has a 15-1 TSR his last 16 Thursday starts and 12-2 TSR in the fourth game of a series.
Also, I feel it should be noted Detroit was not favored on the money line last night. They are here, looking to extend a 5-0 run as a road fave of -110 to -150.
Trevor Bauer gets the nod for the Tribe. The team has won his last four starts and he has a 2-0 record this year vs. the Tigers in three starts. But his ERA is 4.42. Look for Detroit to make it 3 of 4 in this series.
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay Rays -130
While the Blue Jays have taken the first two games of the series, Toronto has never swept the Rays in a 3-game set in Tampa Bay and I'm confident that streak won't come to an end. The Rays haven't been playing great of late, but they haven't lost 3 straight in over 2 weeks.
I look for Tampa Bay to secure a win tonight behind a big time performance from starter Jake Odorizzi, who was dominant in his last start against the Red Sox. Odorizzi allowed just 1 hit over 7 shutout innings of work at home. That dropped his ERA at home to 2.92. He held the Blue Jays to just 2 runs on 6 hits in a 10-3 Rays win at home against Toronto earlier this season.
Toronto counters with lefty Mark Buehrle, who just hasn't been the same since that great start to the year. Burhrle has lost 8 of his last 9 decisions and comes in with a 6.20 ERA over his last 8 starts.
The Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a left-handed starter, 4-1 in Odorizzi's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 after dropping the first two games of a series.
Nick Parsons
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians +128
I like the Indians to even the their homestand with the Tigers at two games apiece.
Detroit's pitcher Maz Scherzer has been a little disappointing down the stretch. Scherzer (15-5, 3.26 ERA)is 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA in his last three outings. In his last outing he gave up six runs and nine hits, while striking out 11 without a walk in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 loss against the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. Scherzer gave up seven runs and 12 hits in seven innings of an 11-10, 13-inning loss at Cleveland on May 21, but then yielded three runs and 12 hits while walking six in 11 2/3 innings to go 1-0 in his last two starts against the Indians (71-66). Cleveland is batting .308 against Scherzer this season.
Cleveland will be pitching, Trevor Bauer (5-7, 3.99) against the Tigers. He has allowed eight hits and struck out 15 while walking eight over 11 2/3 scoreless innings to go 1-0 in his last two starts. He walked five and yielded four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-2, 11-inning victory at Kansas City on Saturday. He is 2-0 in three starts against the Tigers even though he has a 4.42 ERA against them.
Vegas Butcher
Green Bay Packers +6
I’ve made the case for the Packers in this game in my NFL Preview: VegasButcher's 2014 NFL Preview so I won’t go into too much detail in this analysis, but I will highlight a few things.
•Packer’s pass rush will be an issue for Seattle. Signing Peppers to start opposite of Matthews is a big factor here as Seattle’s O-line ranked dead-last in Adjusted Sack Rate last season. Sure the line will be healthier but it’s still a major weakness for the Seahawks. Improved pass-rush by Green Bay will help control the line of scrimmage and I don’t see Seattle being as efficient offensively.
•Green Bay’s offense this year will be more dominant than at any point over the last few years. That’s saying a lot, but with the addition of Lacy and dominant run-blocking (5th in ALY) that Packers’ O-line displayed last season, I don’t see how this Packers team doesn’t improve offensively. An effective run-game will slow down Seattle’s pass-rush, will force the safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage, and will of course enable the Packers to control the clock in the 2nd half of the game if they have a lead. Rodgers is an absolute stud, but with an elite run-game (something he never had before), he’ll be a super-stud this year and that’s a scary thing.
•Regression is a fact not fiction. Seattle’s D played at a historically high level last season and though some might expect the same level of efficiency, it’s very unlikely. Regression will happen and I have a hard time seeing this Seattle D being just as good. Add in the fact that NFL is cracking down on holding, jamming past the 5 yard line, and just general contact with WR’s down the field, and it’s not so difficult to see that Seattle’s D will need to make some adjustments which might take some time. This could be a very critical factor in this game as Green Bay has an elite offense and could cause major issues for Seattle’s physical-style of play.
•Familiarity with Harvin. This one is not so obvious, but it’s a factor in Green Bay’s direction. Having faced Harvin for a number of years when he played with the Vikings, Packers are very familiar with his abilities. The guy missed a lot of time over the last few years, and teams within Seattle’s division might not have seen him before, making him possibly an even bigger weapon than he already is. But not so against the Packers who have a better shot of containing him than others.
•Scrap the SuperBowl from your memory. I’ve heard people say that Seattle will crush the Packers on Thursday, like they did to Denver in the SB. That’s a very dangerous approach to this game. Denver was decimated with injuries on defense in the SB last year and had virtually zero pass-rush in that game (Miller was injured, remember?). Packers will have a potentially scary pass-rush this season. Denver had Peyton Manning throwing passes, who is very accurate but lacks the mobility and arm-strength at this point of his career to get the ball down the field and in tight coverage against a dominant D. Seattle played Denver’s receivers very tight, put a lot of pressure on Manning, and the final results spoke for themselves. Well, Rodgers has a rocket, he is extremely mobile, but most importantly he’s not afraid to squeeze the ball into tight windows and actually is one of the better QB’s in placing the ball in the right spot for his receivers. The physical, tight coverage of Seattle’s secondary won’t be as big of a factor against Rodgers as it was against Manning in the SB. Besides, Denver had a banged up and used up Moreno running the ball for them in the SB. Packers will have a young, healthy bruiser in Lacy on Thursday.
I believe Green Bay will be one of the better teams in the league this year. They’ll have an elite offense and most importantly they should have a much better D than last season. This team lost @ San Fran by 6 last year, @ Cincy by 4, and against San Fran in the Wild Card game by 3, a game where neither Rodgers nor Cobb were necessarily at full strength (both just came back from serious injuries). That’s very impressive to me as both San Fran and Cincy had terrific defenses last season and played a similar ball-control/strong-D type of a game that Seattle likes to implement. This year, Green Bay will be flat-out better than last year and Seattle will regress a bit. I believe 6 points is way too much here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one fall to 5.5 and maybe even lower by tomorrow. Should be a great game but no way will this one be a blowout from my perspective. Grab the points and enjoy the start of the NFL season!
Raphael Esparza
Arizona / Texas San Antonio Under 56
Yes I know the Arizona Wildcats ran all over the UNLV defense, but the Roadrunners of UTSA are not UNLV! UTSA are coming off a big road upset win last weekend over Houston, and the Cougars didn’t score their first touchdown until late in the 4th quarter. UTSA had six takeaways in that game, and the Roadrunners are allowing 10.4 points per game in their last 5 games. If Arizona can spread the ball early and UTSA controls the line I see another low-scoring game and I see a very close game. I see Arizona squeaking this game out, but I don’t see Arizona scoring at will like they did last week against a weak UNLV defense. Texas San Antonio is 3-7 O/U in their last 10 nonconference games and a perfect 0-4 O/U following a SU win.
Harry Bondi
TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (+7) over Arizona
Texas San Antonio is fairly new to the Division I scene but this is one of the most experienced rosters in college football, with 21 returning starters and more seniors (37) than most programs have in two seasons. Head Coach Larry Coker, who won a national championship at Miami, has instilled a physical and nasty style of play and that was clearly evident last week, especially on defense, when the Roadrunners (+10) shutdown Houston in a 27-7 victory. That was a against a Houston offense that averaged more than 30 points per game last season. Arizona steamrolled UNLV last week but we're not comfortable laying a TD on the road here with a redshirt freshman at QB against a veteran defense. Texas San Antonio is a profitable 15-7 ATS the last three years, including 5-1 in September. This is an overlay. Take the home dog.
Jeff Scott Sports
Arizona -7 over UTSA: UTSA is a team that I will be high on this year, but I feel they are up against in this one. Last week they were off a big revenge win over Houston and have a big revenge game on deck at Oklahoma State. Yes this is their home opener and they also have revenge in this game, but still it is a tough sandwich game for them. They will also be facing a team with much more speed on both sides of the ball than they did last week and Im not sure they will be ready for that. Arizona comes in with an explosive offense, while their defense looks like it should be a very formidable group this year. Even though UTSA put up 27 points in last weeks game they did so on just 263 yards of total offense. That will not get it done vs the Wildcats in this one. UTSA has a fine defense but they just won make enough stops and their offense won't put up enough points to keep this one within a TD. Arizona should take this one by double digits.
Dr Bob
SEATTLE (-5) 28 Green Bay 21
Can you ask for a better game to start the season? On many different levels this is clearly a premiere game to watch. Not only because of the fact that two of the best teams in the NFL square off, but also because the NFL’s renewed defensive contact emphasis will be put to the test in a battle of top ranked pass offense versus league best pass defense. As it has been widely discussed, the NFL rules governing illegal contact and defensive holding were put to the test in preseason action with an alarming increase in the number of flags thrown. Speculation has been that re-emphasis of the rules are a result of the aggressive play of the Seahawks defensive backs last season, the “Legion of Boom rule”. This sort of thing isn’t new, however. Certainly not to Peyton Manning. Back in 2004, the NFL made defensive holding and illegal contact a major point of emphasis based in part on complaints from former Colts G.M. Bill Polian that Patriots defensive backs were roughing up the Colts receivers in the AFC Championship Game. This resulted in an increase in illegal contact fouls from 79 to 191 the following season after additional emphasis and enforcement were ordered by the league. Now, the NFL is getting back to the letter of the law. We get our first test case here in regular season action when the games count with two of the best subjects to test.
When I look back at the Packers last season, it is really the tale of two teams. One with Aaron Rodgers and one without. As we know, quarterback is the most important position on an NFL roster and major differences in talent at the position account for major differences in offensive production. Take the case of Aaron Rodgers in 2013. In the games that Rodgers played in, the Packers offense averaged 29 points per game, +5 points better than the average amount allowed by their opponents. His yards per pass production was off the charts with 7.6 YPS against a schedule of teams that allowed 6.1 YPS on average, best in the league. Better than Peyton Manning who had the most prolific passing season of any quarterback in NFL history by traditional standards. In the games without Rodgers at the helm, the Packers averaged only 22 points per game, -4 points worse than the average amount given up by their opponents. The passing numbers were even worse as Green Bay averaged a full -1.3 yps less without Rodgers against a schedule of opponents that allowed +.3 yps more. The NFL is a passing league and with enforcement of the defensive contact penalties this season, potent offenses should be even more potent. This is clearly a much different team with Rodgers at QB, and I have the Packers rated as the 4th best team entering 2014. Coach Mike McCarthy is quoted as saying “"I don't know if I've felt this good coming out of the preseason as I do tonight," after his final preseason game. It can sometimes be difficult translating coach-speak as there is generally some sort of an agenda attached. However, in this case I believe it. McCarthy goes on to say, "I don't jump out and make statements, but our goal is simply the same every year: We're here to win championships".
Analyzing the Packers it becomes clear that this is a team that should improve off of last season, if the team can remain reasonably healthy. Outside of Rodgers, injuries to other key players derailed the Packers last season as Clay Matthews, Reggie Cobb, Bryan Bulaga, Nick Perry, Morgan Burnett, Casey Hayward and Eddie Lacy all missed time,or in the case of Bulaga, the season. For most of the pre-season it appeared that the Packers were getting out relatively unscathed until NT BJ Raji was lost for the season with a torn biceps and new C JC Tretter was lost for some time with a knee fracture. While Raji will be missed, the real troubling loss is at the center position. The Packers spent the entire off-season preparing Tretter for the center job and they were so confident in his abilities that they allowed Evan Dietrich-Smith to leave in free agency. Tretter, who is in his second season, took every rep with the starters during OTAs, minicamp and in the first three preseason games. His replacement is rookie fifth-round pick Corey Linsley of Ohio State who will have had less than two weeks to prepare to face the Seahawks in Seattle on Thursday night. You couldn’t ask for a worse spot to start your career. This is a major issue for the Packers heading into this game as the noise level at CenturyLink field will make it very difficult for the offense to communicate and with Linsley new to the mix, the Packers offensive tempo will likely be compromised.
On the other side of the field, the Seahawks will be aggressive in attacking the vulnerabilities in the Packers offensive line. And as we know, they have the personnel to do it. Although they might miss some of departed Red Bryant’s run stuffing ability and Chris Clemons and Clinton McDonald’s pass rush, they have the pieces in place and a scheme that should enable them to compensate for those losses. Overall, this is a defense without any real holes and in 2013 they performed at a historic level. In 2013, the Seahawks allowed an average of 284 yards at 4.6 yppl to a schedule of teams that gained 351 yards at 5.2 yppl, by far the best in the league. Barring injury I don’t see much changing in 2014 as I have them rated as the best defense in the NFL once again.
Offensively they should be even better. Russell Wilson is now in his third year and will have Percy Harvin at full strength to start the season. If the preseason is any indication, he is poised for a huge year as he posted outstanding passing and offensive productivity numbers. Here are the raw preseason totals: 13 offensive possessions in four preseason games. They scored points on 11 of those possessions and punted just once. Those 13 possessions consisted of nine touchdowns, two field goals, a missed field goal and just the lone punt. Overall, Wilson was 33-for-42 for a 78.6 completion percentage, 437 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for 61 yards on nine carries and three touchdowns. His passer rating for the preseason clocked in at 133.8. It’s only the preseason but you simply can’t do much better than that. Add that to what he did last year in his second season and without Percy Harvin (7.0 YPS to teams that allow 6.1 YPS) and my efficiency projections for this offense in 2014 are near the top of the league at #5.
My ratings favor the Seahawks by 5.5 points in this game and I don’t have any situations that apply. Based on the combination of home field advantage, crowd noise and the trouble that the Packers will have at center I like the Seahawks to win and cover. Although he is a bit overrated as a run defender, the Packers may miss the depth and experience that BJ Raji provided in the middle of the defense and if the Packers have trouble stopping the run, they’ll have trouble stopping the Seahawks from scoring points. It will be interesting to see how the Seattle defense plays against a potent Packers offense but I expect that there will be some miscommunication issues that could hurt the Packers here.
John Ryan
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Yankees are just running out fo time and chasing an opponent in baltimore that is steadily getting better as each week passes. Still, they are in the midst of the Wild Card race, but here again, they are competing against teams that are just simply better. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 128-104 mark for 55.2% winners and has made 58 units/unit wagered averaging a +127 DOG play since 2008. Play on road teams (BOSTON) tht has been a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games and starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. NYY are a money burning 10-19 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in home games facing an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season; 3-11 (-9.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 this season. Yankees won 5-1 last night, but Boston is a very strong 11-2 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in road games revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less this season. Take Boston.
Sam Martin
Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
Reds starter Mike Leake has been red hot in his last two starts, but we will fade him as Cincinnati takes on an even hotter pitcher tonight on the road in Chris Tillman. Leake hasn't allowed a single earned run in each of his last two starts, but the Reds barely escaped those two games with a 1-1 record, winning 1-0 and losing 2-1.
Baltimore's Chris Tillman is on fire with a perfect 7-0 team start record since late July, with the O's winning those games by a combined 27 runs. For his part, Tillman has allowed just six earned runs combined over his last six starts, and here at home his ERA is now down to 2.50 through 15 starts. Don't believe this Reds offense will be able to get to Tillman tonight and we'll back the home favorite in a solid pitching edge.
Jack Jones
Cardinals/Brewers Under 8.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. I look for a pitcher's duel tonight between Michael Wacha and Wily Peralta in this huge NL Central showdown.
Wacha makes his return from the disabled list tonight looking to pick up where he left off over the last two seasons. He has gone 5-5 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.118 WHIP over 15 starts in 2014 to carry over his remarkable success from the postseason last year.
Peralta has been an underrated starter this year, going 15-9 with a 3.87 ERA in 27 starts. What stands out most to me is how Peralta has dominated the Cardinals this year. Indeed, he is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts against the Cardinals this season, allowing just three earned runs over 20 innings.
Milwaukee is 26-13 UNDER (+11.6 Units) at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. The Brewers are 60-33 UNDER (+22.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Wacha's last 10 road starts. The UNDER is 9-4 in Peralta's last 13 home starts with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5.