Dave Price
Seattle Mariners -119
Look for Seattle to take care of business against a Texas club that has lost five straight and 51 of 69. Texas has shown it can be trusted with Robbie Ross on the hill. The Rangers are 0-8 in his last eight starts, and he's given up at least five runs in five of these. Seattle's Elias has been on top of his game. He's allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last seven starts. The Mariners have won five of their last six on the road and are 10-3 in their last 13 road games versus teams with a home winning percentage below .400.
Cajun-Sports
Packers / Seahawks Over 47
The Green Bay Packers open the 2014 campaign with a trip to the Pacific northwest for a meeting against Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. The TPR Index qualifies this game as an Over play with a 4.9 point advantage. We note the Packers are 8-1 Over when installed as an underdog of four or more points their last nine. They are also 12-3 Over when facing teams from the NFC West. Seattle is 7-1 Over versus teams from the NFC North. This series has seen the Over cash at a rate of 3-1-1 the last five games. Play OVER
BONES BEST BETS
ANGELS ML + ANGELS/TWINS – OVER 8.5 +243
Gibson’s last 4 home starts have been awful to say the least. Over these 4 starts he is 0-3, has pitched a total of 18.1 innings, allowed 21 earned runs (10.35 ERA), allowed 31 hits and 7 walks! He faced the Angels in LA on June 24th where lasted just 2 innings allowing 7 earned runs! Does not look good for Kyle Gibson here tonight.
BLUE JAYS ML + BLUE JAYS/RAYS – OVER 7 +289
Jays have turned it on wining 4 straight with their offense looking good while doing it. The Rays have now dropped 7 of 10 allowing almost 5 runs per game in that span. Both Buerhle and Odorizzi have struggled of late with ERAs in the 5s over their past 3 starts. Both teams L5 and L10 are seeing 7.6 runs per game or higher.
CARDINALS ML + CARDINALS/BREWERS – OVER 8 +235
These are 2 teams going in opposite directions. The Cards have won 5 straight and the Brewers have lost 8 in a row. The Cards have also won 5 of their last 7 meetings vs the Brewers this year. The Gomez injury hurts the Brewers even more. The Brewers are a must fade right now and Peralta has looked terrible his last 2 starts. In 8 innings pitched over his last 2 starts he has given up 13 earned runs and 16 hits. We like the over here as well because we’re not sure Wacha will be able to bring his A-game coming off injury.
Stephen Nover
Packers at Seahawks
Play: Packers +6
Everybody seems to be just recalling the Seahawks smashing the Broncos in the Super Bowl and forgetting about the Packers, who with Aaron Rodgers and a healthy lineup are as good as any team on a neutral field. Seattle is the loudest outdoor venue in the league, but Green Bay negates some of that Seahawks' home field advantage with a no-huddle. The Packers are no longer a finesse team. Not with powerful Eddie Lacy. The Seahawks have the best secondary in the league. But their physical secondary is going to be affected more than any other team with the increased emphasis from officials on flagging defensive holding and making tighter pass interference calls. The Packers are deep at wide receiver. The Seahawks are actually weak at nickel back with Jeremy Lane, who isn't 100 percent because of a groin injury and will have problems handling Randall Cobb, who the Packers constantly move around. Seattle lost three of their top seven defensive linemen reducing their depth. Green Bay's offensive line is underrated especially with Bryan Bulaga healthy. I would take Green Bay's offensive line over Seattle's. The Packers have a deep secondary, too, and their defensive line is much improved. The Packers haven't forgotten either how they were robbed during their last visit to Seattle two years ago when replacement referees stole the game from Green Bay.
Greg Shaker
Packers / Seahwaks Under 47
Oddsmakers are very generous with this number and I am getting it now prior to this one going down which it already has at some spots. Lest we forget that a Seattle Defense that is healthy and rested is as good as it gets and they proved that for us last year allowing just 7 in their 1st regular season game and just 3 in their 2nd game. They did that playing eventual playoff teams, Carolina and San Francisco. This team got better and better on D last year allowing 20 points only once in their last 10 played and closing out the season on a 7-1 UNDER run. I know that these are the Packers and they can score points but a Thursday Night game at this jungle is not the way you want to start the season. The Hawks are going to do what they do on offense, that is run the ball, have controlled scoring drives, and eat clock. My only concern here is that they might get a D score or two and always the chance you take playing UNDER in a Seattle game. Having said all of the above this number has actually risen from an open of 45, peaked at 47.5 and is now showing some 46.5's out there, namely Pinny, one of if not the sharpest books on the Planet.
Jeff Alexander
Milwaukee Brewers +100
The Brewers are in excellent position to end their 8-game skid with Peralta on the rubber. He has dominated the Cardinals, going 4-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last four starts against them. He has a 1.35 ERA in three starts against them this season. Wacha hasn't pitched in the bigs since June 17 so I expect to see some rust. Plus, the Cards are 0-8 in his last 8 road starts. Milwaukee trails St. Louis by 3 games and will be looking to make a move in this 4-game set.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Angels -117
This is a great spot to back the Angels as a small road favorite against an inferior opponent in Minnesota. Los Angeles is going to come out extremely motivated after getting swept in a quick 2-game series at Houston and the Twins are just the team to rebound against. Minnesota is just 3-8 in their last 11 games.
Huge edge for LA on the mound as well. The Angels will send out Hector Santiago, who has a sizzling 1.62 ERA and 1.140 WHIP over his last 3 starts, while the Twins counter with Kyle Gibson and his 6.60 ERA and 1.867 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
Key Trends - Angels are 24-9 in their last 33 games after scoring 2 runs or less, 16-7 in their last 23 road games after losing 2 of their last 3 and 22-14 in their last 36 road games with a money line of +125 to -125.
System - Teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 (Twins) on the season (AL), with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games are just 33-69 (32%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Doug Upstone
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Los Angeles Angels -115
Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like Minnesota, turning 0.8 or less double plays a game on the season, after a contest where they had at least 10 more hits than their opponent. The logic behind system is the underdog is unlikely to have such a strong offensive game again and since they as a team lack range to force more twin-killings (especially with soft-tossers like Minnesota has besides P. Hughes), the opposing team has more chance to score. In the past 17 years, this home dog is 10-36 and let's not forget, Minnesota is 43-68 when Hughes is not their starter this season.
The Real Animal
Texas San Antonio +7
The line value has diminished greatly tonight with UTSA only +7. A year ago they were +24½ in Tucson and lost 38-13. Certainly catching six turnovers contributed to the upset win at Houston, spoiling the new stadium opener for the Cougars. But the Roadrunners have 37 seniors and 10 returning starters on defense, a unit that is allowing just 10.4 points per game in their last five. Plus we catch Arizona freshman QB Anu Solomon making his road debut. Last week he posted 425 passing yards and four touchdowns on the way to a school-record 787 total yards against UNLV. But Arizona last year won at UNLV 58-13 (same score as last week) and then proceeded to only win at Cal by five points and lost at Washington by 18 and Arizona State by 37. UTSA has won six straight. Arizona is just 4-6 SU in their last 10 on the road and their only wins last year came against bottom-feeders UNLV, Colorado, and Cal. Coach Rodriguez is only 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS in his 12 road openers. Meanwhile Coach Coker is 16-8 ATS as an underdog in his career. Arizona’s front seven is extremely small by Pac-12 standards and UTSA loves to run the football. UTSA had a 40:22-22:14 advantage over Houston with the clock and held the cougars to just 208 total yards of offense including -26 on the ground! While UTSA lost by 25 at Arizona last year they were only out-gained by 43 total yards. Curiously, the Wildcats are 3-14 ATS on the road after outgaining their last opponent by 225 yards or more. Note that UTSA was in revenge last week after losing to Houston 59-28. This team is vastly improved. Grab the points with the Roadrunners.
Jeff Scott Sports
Seattle/Green Bay Over 47: Yes Seattle has a stout defense, while the Packer defense is improved, but still I see the offenses getting their chance at plenty of points here. Last year Russell Wilson was more of a game manager, but the Seahawks may be looking to open up the offense a bit more this year, and while the Packer defense is improved they certainly can be scored on and if they get scored on early then that should force them to use their air attack a bit more as the game wears on as they look to keep pace with the Seahawks. Both first team offenses looked very solid in the preseason and I expect that to continue in this one, especially with the new rules that just may have been designed to work against the Seahawk defense.
Red Dog Sports
Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -5½
The Seahawks won the Super Bowl last season in a blowout. Will they be hungry this year? They are led by coach Pete Carroll and QB Russell Wilson as well as Percy Harvin and Marshawn Lynch on offense. They have the best defense in the NFL and a great crowd. Green Bay has QB Aaron Rodgers and he will be the difference in this game. If he plays great the Packers can win or cover but I think we see the home team win by about 10 points.
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox, and in this one I want you to list Chris Capuano over Brandon Workman.
I know Workman has been pretty good for the Red Sox here and there, but he is returning to the Majors after being optioned to Triple-A on Aug. 24. The right-hander was hit pretty hard in his most recent start for Boston, as he allowed 10 hits and seven runs in 3.2 innings against the Mariners.
I'd rather bank on the home team with Cappy, who earned his first win with New York, after firing 6.1 innings of three-run ball against division-contending Toronto his last time out. Capuano snapped a 12-start winless streak by turning in his second consecutive quality start in the victory.
Take the Yanks and list both.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee in a crucial NL Central Division battle. As I expected, the Cardinals have turned the tables on the Brewers and taken control of the Central Division. Milwaukee is in free-fall mode right now, having been outscored 55-16 during this current skid which has seen them fall way out of first place... and they now lead Atlanta by only 1/2 game for the second Wild Card spot.
Michael Wacha (5-5, 2.79 ERA) gets the start for the Redbirds and seems to be primed for his return to action for the first time since June 17. He's hoping to pick up where he left off in June as his last start was a good one. One run allowed over six innings in a 5-1 win before going on the shelf for two months.
He's countered by Wily Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA) who was making great progress until recently. Over his last two starts, Peralta has allowed 14 runs over eight innings of work in back to back losses.
Take St. Louis as your free play of the day.
2♦ ST. LOUIS
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Under in the Tigers-Indians contest.
Cannot count on Max Scherzer's ERA to stay over 5 (for his last 3 starts) much longer, as this guy is too good to continue to slide the way he has. Scherzer is 15-5 on the season, and his last last pair of starts against Cleveland this year have seen just 3 runs cross in nearly 12 innings for a 1-0 mark.
Trevor Bauer is working on an 11-plus inning scoreless stretch for the Tribe, and the fact that the teams have played the last pair in this series, and 5 of the last 6 this season Under the total, only furthers my belief that Scherzer and Bauer are going to be hard to score on tonight.
Tigers and Indians conclude with another Under.
4♦ DETROIT-CLEVELAND UNDER
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers for a second-straight night. Last night the Tribe was my smart play. Tonight the Tribe is a freebie.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Indians - Trevor Bauer. He logged his second straight scoreless outing on Saturday, making it the the first time he hasn't allowed a run in back-to-back starts during his two-year career. He lasted 5.2 innings of the Indians' 3-2 extra-inning win, and struck out six while scattering four hits.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Tigers - Max Scherzer. Yes, the right-hander is in after striking out 11 White Sox in 6.2 innings last Saturday, but tonight he is up against a Cleveland team that's batting .308 (24-for-78) in three meetings with him this year.
In conclusion, why CLEVELAND is my SMART PLAY in this game - The Indians are right in the middle of the American League Central division race, so after snapping a two-game skid with last night's blowout of the Tigers, this becomes a solid chance to make it two straight.
Cleveland is in fourth place in the American League wild-card race, and would love to not just take it to the Tigers, but build some confidence and momentum by blasting Detroit for a second straight night.
3♦ CLEVELAND