Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Baltimore Orioles, over the Cincinnati Reds in Interleague play. The O's are handing the ball to Chris Tillman, and I think the right-hander will be the difference maker in this clash at Camden Yards tonight.
Tillman is in after allowing just one run in a win against the Twins on Saturday, however, the fac he only lasted five innings for his third non-quality starts in 16 outings tells me he'll be looking to reconnect with the dominating style he was pitching with over the summer. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 2.13 ERA in his last 16 starts, and should be able to handcuff this lineup.
1♦ BALTIMORE
Brad Wilton
My free play winner for Thursday is the Cardinals over the slumping Brewers.
Milwaukee's losing streak is now at 8 in a row, and their offense has gone AWOL with 2 runs or less scored in 7 of those 8 losses.
The Brewers have lost hold of first place in the Central to the visiting Cardinals who come into Miller Park having won 5 straight. The Redbirds have also won 5 of the last 7 series meetings against their fading division-rivals this year.
Michael Wacha makes his first start since June 17th, as he was sidelined with shoulder soreness. He will go against Wily Peralta who has given up 14 runs in his last 8 innings pitched for a pair of losses.
Things just not going Milwaukee's way right now, so side with St. Louis to extend the Brewers woes in this series opener.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Tony George
Green Bay @ Seattle
Play: Seattle -5.5
A line drop on Thursday as heavy money and heavy opinions coming in on Green Bay tonight as the NFL Kicks off their season opener in Seattle, home of the 12th man in the NFL in a star studded national TV event tonight. The Super Bowl Champs get a very tough assignment tonight against a Packer team hell bent on redemption as they look to regain their stature as one of the NFL’s elite teams in 2014, and let’s not forget the last time these two hooked up at night on national TV, as we all remember the “Fail Mary” play to end that game on a Monday Night, clearly in my mind a game the Pack should have won, (Guess where my money was at in that one !)
While there is a ton of media hype, and the unveiling of the Super Bowl Champions Banner tonight, one has to look at this game for what it is. You need to ask yourself the basic handicapping questions. Who can run the ball better, who has the better defense, who has better special teams, who takes care of the ball better, and who has the better coach? Well, all of those items are CLEARLY on the side of the Seahawks. The KEY ingredient there is head coach. Pete Carroll in no way will not have his team prepared tonight despite all the hoopla surrounding tonight’s game and he is the better coach. They looked great in week 3 of the preseason, which is the dress rehearsal for the regular season and let us not forget that home field advantage in Seattle is worth 4 points on any power rating sheet in America. Yes Aaron Rodgers is the better QB but the surrounding cast for him is not as strong as what QB Wilson has around him, and Rodgers will face the best secondary in football here, no doubt in catch up mode at some point unless the wheels come off for Seattle and I just do not see that happening, even with CB Lane out tonight for Seattle.
Also in question is Green Bay’s running game, and their ability to run it against the NFL’s best defense. There is also a question of Green Bay’s ability to stop the run, and Julius Peppers is not the answer, and while he is still a good player, he not 27 years old anymore. I would expect a ground game to open up the pass game for the Hawks, and also Russell Wilson’s ability to scramble gets a ton of 3rd down conversions, which in fact does keep drives alive and wears down a defense coupled with a brutal ground attack being presented to them by RB Lynch. Also of note, a key player on any NFL team is the center position on offense. Green Bay starts a rookie center tonight in the most hostile environment he has ever seen. That is a KEY disadvantage for Green Bay here.
Bob Balfe
St. Louis Cardinals -105
The Brewers have been struggling big time as they now are on a official brutal losing streak. If they can snap out of it at even money against a top notch pitcher in Wacha then so be it. Until then the prove nothing and at this price there is tremendous value fading them. Take St. Louis.
LineCatchers
Green Bay Packers + 6
What an intriguing match up we have to open the 2014 NFL Season, the Green Bay Packers on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. I really like the Packers in this spot on Thursday night for several reasons.
The new enforcement of contact in the secondary will not affect any team more than the Seahawks and their “Legion of Boom” defense. In my view, the officials will want to make ALL teams aware of just how serious they are in protecting receivers from hard hits. Aaron Rogers is the best QB on the planet and with a deep WR core which the Packers now possess, I really do believe that we will see this Seattle team tested to its full capacity tonight.
Seattle at home have been an automatic wager over the last 3 years and I’m certain they will be one of the top teams in the NFC this year once more. All the talk about the ‘Legion of Boom’ has over shadowed the fact that they have lost their number 1 WR and target for Russell Wilson in Golden Tate who signed with the Lions. Tate led Seattle with 64 catches, 898 receiving yards and 5 TD catches. He also had 520 yards after catching the football, a threat which this Seahawk offense no longer carries down the field.
Over the last three seasons, Green Bay are 32-7 in Regular Season play with Rogers starting under centre and of those seven defeats, six of them were by an average of just 4.5 points. I like the packers to keep this game very close and maybe win this game outright. It is very unlikely that we will see the Packers listed as six point dogs for the remainder of the season as long as Rogers stays healthy.
OC Dooley
Blue Jays +130
After last night’s result Toronto has officially WON a “series” in Tampa for the first time in SEVEN long years. This evening the Blue Jays will attempt to sweep the Rays in Tampa for the first time in franchise history and I argue that they have the “law of averages” on their side. Veteran Mark Buehrle has just ONE win in the past fifteen starts which is the exact opposite of early in the campaign when he got off to an incredible “10-1” overall start. Buehrle was one of many free-agents brought in by Miami when the Marlins officially opened their new ballpark but along with Jose Reyes was unceremoniously shipped north of the border in a relatively short period of time. It would be appropriate if the speedster Reyes (homered on Tuesday) and Buehrle actually excelled this evening in the state of Florida. It was back at the All Star Break when it appeared that the Blue Jays actually had a shot at winning what is a weak American League East division draw and despite a severe slump come into this evening still within striking distance (4’ games out) of a Wild Card playoff berth. I am aware that Tampa’s Jake Odorizzi (one hit allowed last time on the mound) is coming off a gem but the youngster has been inconsistent
Anthony Michael
Seattle Seahawks -6
The way Seattle plays at home you can pretty much play them anytime they are laying less than 7 points as they are here. The Packers defense is terrible and the Seattle offense has looked very strong when the starters were in during the pre-season. Green Bay may have revenge from the game stolen from them by the replacement refs but that is not going to help them in this atmosphere against this team.
Dr Bob
Arizona (-7) 30 UTSA 24
Both of these teams were impressive last week, with Arizona dominating UNLV to the tune of 787 yard to 371 yards on the field and 58-13 on the scoreboard and UTSA upsetting Houston 27-7 as a double-digit dog. The Roadrunners were helped out by a +5 in turnover margin in an otherwise even contest (267 yards at 3.7 yards per play for UTSA and 255 yards at 3.6 yppl for Houston), but Houston has 17 starters returning from a better than average 8-5 team so playing them even from the line of scrimmage is impressive. Especially impressive is the UTSA defense, which played pretty well last year (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and returns 10 starters from that unit. Of course I had projected the Roadrunners’ defense to be better than average this season but they far surpassed expectations with last Saturday’s performance against a pretty good Houston offense with a good experienced quarterback in John O’Korn.
We’ll find out just how good the UTSA stop unit is tonight, as Rich Rodriquez finally has his recruits in place on offense in his 3rd season at the helm. Redshirt freshman quarterback Anu Solomon looks like a star after averaging 9.0 yards per pass play last week and the rushing attack doesn’t appear to miss All-American Ka’Deem Carey based on last week’s 363 yards at 7.9 yards per rushing play. Actually, I didn’t think the Arizona rushing attack would suffer at all without Carey, whose 5.4 yards per run wasn’t that remarkable. Arizona won’t produce 787 yards as they did last week against UNLV but they should be able to move the ball pretty well against a stout UTSA defense.
Where Arizona appears to have a real advantage is with their better than average defense going up against a San Antonio attack that really struggled last week under new quarterback Tucker Carter. Carter is replacing a 3 year starter in Eric Soza, who put up solid numbers as a senior, but it appears as if Carter may be more of a drop than anticipated after last week’s poor showing (just 4.0 yards per pass play). I actually rate Houston’s defense more highly that Arizona’s defense so Carter and the rest of the offense should have more success this week. Overall, my ratings favor Arizona by 10 points but UTSA applies to a 60-19 ATS game 2 home underdog situation that I’m not eager to go against. In fact, I’ll lean slightly with UTSA plus the points.
VegasButcher
Detroit Tigers -127
Gonna back Scherzer on a ‘bounce-back’, sort of. He allowed 9 hits, 2 HR’s, and 5 ER’s in his last outing but when you strike out 11 in 6.2 innings, you deserve better. He had a 0.77 xFIP for the game and 1.33 SIERA. White Sox crushed his fastball in that last game but the pitch that was really working for him was his ‘changeup’, his best pitch that got majority of those strike-outs. Well, Indians rank 28th against the pitch and this lefty-dominant lineup will have trouble against it if Scherzer is ON once again tonight. As far as Bauer is concerned, he’s at 170 innings thrown already this year, way more than 138 he’s thrown last year or even 146 the year prior. His best pitch has been his ‘curveball’ this season but Detroit ranks #1 against it on the year. Maybe that helps explain why the Tigers have blasted 5 HR’s and generated 21 hits in his 18.1 innings against them this season. Bauer is coming off 2 starts where he allowed 0 ER’s combined, but 8 BB’s in those 11.2 innings is a concern. Typically mediocre pitchers like Bauer have a hard time maintaining their consistency and coming off two spectacular outings, I like his chances of some regression. Besides he faced the 19th and 21st ranked offenses against right-handers in those two starts. Tonight, he’ll get to face the #1 offense in the league for the 4th time this season. I don’t like his chances of success.
Teddy Covers
Tigers / Indians Over 7.5
The Tigers got shut out by Danny Salazar yesterday. They’ve been shut out on seven previous occasions this year. Six of those seven games flew Over the total, with Detroit scoring five or more in five of those contests; a team that has bounced back very well following a sluggish offensive showing.
And the Tigers are poised to hit Trevor Bauer this evening. They’ve faced him three times already this year, with all three games producing eight runs or more. Bauer has been particularly vulnerable to the long ball against Detroit, giving up five homers in those three starts. Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera, Torii Hunter, Ian Kinsler and JD Martinez have all hit .333 or better against Bauer their careers. And it’s surely worth noting that it’s taken 220 pitches for Bauer to labor through 11.2 innings in his last two starts; a potential harbinger of upcoming troubles as he’s been struggling with his command.
Max Scherzer’s two previous starts at Cleveland this year produced 14 and 21 combined runs. Scherzer has been laboring of late. Each of his last three starts has flown Over the total, with two of them producing 14 combined runs or more. Here’s what he said following his loss to the White Sox last week: "The margin of error between success and failure, right now, is razor thin. You have to be really on top of your game to have success. Really, in my mind, I felt I had great stuff (Saturday). But it only takes a couple pitches to get beat."
If Scherzer is giving up four runs and getting beat on a night when he’s got great stuff, I’m not convinced his primed for a dominating effort in his next start either! And like the Tigers against Bauer, the Indians lineup has enjoyed success against Scherzer this season, hitting .308 against him as a team. We don’t need an offensive explosion to cash this Over, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get one.