SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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DENVER -7½ over BaltimoreFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Almost every year there is a team of destiny which just wins in spite of what is expected and that gets the right calls, bouncing balls and a sense of chemistry that seems to just appear later in the season. Not that the Ravens were a bad team, but they ended the year as the best of all and that’s all that matters. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice. The Ravens get to re-assert themselves now with different personnel and show that it was no fluke and that the NFL is not just a reality show scripted by Ray Lewis. The Ravens went into 2012 wanting Joe Flacco to prove himself before re-upping him with a new contract. That merely cost them $120 million for six years. That was a King's ransom for a quarterback who never passed for more than 3817 yards or 25 touchdowns in a season. For whatever reason, Flacco had maybe the best four games of his career in the playoffs. Flacco threw for multiple touchdowns in only three of his first 13 games until catching fire at the right time. Of the Ravens three main receivers now, they combined for only one season over 1000 yards and that was Brandon Stokley when he had that freakish year as a Colt nine years ago. Rare is so much rebuilding on a team that won it all last year but that’s precisely the situation for Baltimore this year. Dennis Pitta became Flacco's security blanket last year and scored three times in the playoffs. But he suffered a badly dislocated hip in July that may force him to miss the entire season and in all cases a good chunk of the year to start. That leaves blocking tight end Ed Dickson and 34-year old Dallas Clark who has been a non-factor since 2009. The passing game no longer has Pitta or Anquan Boldin. That's a big chunk of the offense that someone has to fill. Again, not a positive development.
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The Broncos were the team to beat in the AFC last year and that is exactly what these Ravens did. Peyton Manning's first season back from neck surgery was a huge success and he brought along the entire offense with him. It was a bitter pill to swallow when the Ravens pulled out the win and don’t think the Broncos have forgotten that. Denver’s offense has even been upgraded with Wes Welker and Montee Ball in the backfield. The defense may not be quite as good for 2013, but that only means more Peyton Manning and that is always a good thing.After sitting out a year with a bad neck, Peyton Manning came back in pretty good form. His 4659 yards ranked second best in his career as did his 37 touchdowns. He never failed to throw at least one touchdown in every game and only four times did he not end up with multiple touchdown passes. He was vintage Manning while making Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker into his new version of Harrison/Wayne. And now he gets Wes Welker? And an easy schedule? Just hardly seems fair. Manning passed for 290 yards and three scores on the Ravens in the Divisional Round last year. He threw two interceptions and lost one fumble in a very uncharacteristic game. He might remember that day.
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While it is early to consider any obituary for the Ravens defense, the loss of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will have some effect, perhaps not the profound negative that some believe but it’s worth noting that Bernard Pollard is also gone. That all said, the Broncos are at home here in front of the world against the team that derailed what was thought to be a certain Super Bowl bid. The Broncos make a big statement tonight and it comes at the expense of the Ravens. 7½-points may seem like a big number but that’s exactly what the oddsmakers want you to think.
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WEEK 1 Survivor PoolFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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DENVER over BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Once again this season we are going to attempt to pick one straight up winner each week while not being allowed to use the same team more than once in a season. Most people will look to the biggest favorites of the week and choose one of them and that’s a “safe” way to play but here’s the problem with that philosophy. In the unlikely event that you avoid a big upset each week and remain standing, at the end of the pool, you will end up splitting it with many others. Furthermore, when an upset occurs and you’re on that team, you will get eliminated along with 25%-35% of the remaining entrants. In other words, any favorites of seven points or more usually cover 90% of the entrants. Let’s say there are three teams that are favored by 7 points or more. Those 3 teams will be chosen by approximately 90% of the entrants in your pool or 30% each. In Week 1, Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh will likely be split up almost evenly by about 85% of your pool and that’s what we are trying to avoid.
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We also avoid playing road favorites because they simply don’t win enough and they are almost always in line for an upset. Road chalk like the Bucs, Chiefs, Seahawks and Chargers in Week 1 are far too risky for our liking and that brings us to our pick: DENVER.
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Yes, the Broncos are among that group of teams that are favored by 7 points or more but because it’s a Thursday night game and because they are playing the Super Bowl champs, only 20% or less of your pool entrants will be choosing them. Think you shouldn't be picking against the Super Bowl champions and their $120 million quarterback? Think again. Not only is the game at Mile High Stadium but Denver ranked as the second-most efficient team in 2012, behind only the Patriots. Denver owned the No. 2 defense in the NFL last season and although they are without Von Miller, they figure to play just as hard. The Ravens show up with less of a team than last year with notable defections/retirements on both sides of the ball. Because they are the ruling Super Bowl champs, they better get used to everyone bringing their A+ game against them. The extremely focused Broncos figure to do just that. Nobody wants to get eliminated in Week 1 and of all the “big favorites”, this one will be the least played among pool entrants and we’re suggesting it has the best chance of winning.
Bob Balfe
Cincinnati Reds -135
What a great extra inning game last night won by the Cardinals as a backup player stole the show. The Reds are now in desperation mode and need to win this game with their left hander on the mound. Cingrani is the better pitcher this year and the Cardinals have not hit the ball that great as of late and really struggle against lefties. If the Reds lose this you can stick a fork in them. Take Cincinnati.
Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida Atlantic at East CarolinaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If you read our College Football Article this past weekend, you know that games involving favorites have gone under the total 11 times in 17 chances in the opening week, including a perfect 5-0 Under in the non-Saturday games. We look for that trend to hold true tonight in the Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina matchup, noting the visitor only scored six points last week at Miami FL. and while the Hurricanes won big (but did not cover as as 31-point favorite), the Hurricanes only amassed 200 yards passing and we think East Carolina will have a hard time duplicating their 447-yard passing outburst they had against ODU last weekend. East Carolina wins this game comfortably (no opinion on the ATS winner), but this one stays well under the high total.
Tony StoffoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cincinnati RedsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With Lance Lynn matching up with Tony Cingrani here, and the Cardinals in a major slump right now having lost 5 of their last 7 - makes for a solid release on the Reds here this evening. In his last 3 starts Lynn has a 7.94 ERA with a 2.06 WHIP In his last 3 starts Cingrani has a 1.20 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP Cardinals are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Reds are 5-1 in Cingrani's last 6 starts vs. National League Central. Cincinnati at this price the play here.
Ken ThomsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ravens / Broncos Over 48FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Taking a shot at this game to go over....Denver a depleted pass rush without Von Miller and Dumervil now on the Ravens plus no Champ Bailey in secondary. Manning should still run everything from shot gun...use Welker & Thomas all night and force Flacco to air it out as well. Baltimore may also uptempo their offense to take advantage of Denver's depth on Defensive side of the ball. Look for Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones and Baltimore's underrated receiving corp to surprise tonight. Ray Rice will also catch some balls out of the backfield as a safety valve. I think Manning will be on his game even with a depleted offensive line and I look for a 34-27 Bronco win.
Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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2 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver/ Baltimore Over 48: I have to feel this will be an uptempo game on both sides, which should lead to plenty of points. The Broncos have some injury woes on the OL, but still Peyton is behind center and he has plenty of weapons to get the ball to, including newly acquired Wes Welker. The bigger problem for Denver comes on defense, where they lost Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (Foot), so I expect the Raven to put up some points on them. The Ravens defense is banged up as well, plus Reed and Lewis are gone from this unit this year. I see some early season growing pains from the Raven defense this year. Both teams are hurting on the defensive side of the ball and with two very good offenses attack those units I expect plenty of points in this one.
Doug UpstoneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston vs. New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On Thursday, PLAY OVER on teams like Boston when the total is 8.5 to 10, with a team batting average between .265 to .279, against a very good AL starting pitcher (Ivan Nova) whose ERA is 3.50 or lower, in September games. This MLB system is 42-13 since 2009, 76.4 percent. The average score of these games has been 11 runs.
Dave Price
New York Yankees -105
The Red Sox are a slight underdog Thursday, and that doesn't bode well for them. In fact, they are just 24-54 in their last 78 games as an underdog, including 2-5 in their last 7 games as a road underdog. In addition, The Red Sox are 17-35 in their last 52 road games versus a team with a winning record and 7-15 in their last 22 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Yankees are playing their best ball of the season. They've won 5 of their last 6 overall and 15 of their last 18 at home. They are also 8-0 in their last 8 home games versus a right-handed starter. I expect this trend to continue as Peavy is 0-4 in 4 starts against the Yanks. New York is 6-0 in Nova's last 6 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. He's been brilliant in winning his last 2 starts against the Red Sox. Take New York.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -147
The Baltimore Orioles get the nod Thursday against the reeling Chicago White Sox. Baltimore (73-65) need to put the foot on the gas as it trails Tampa Bay by 4 games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League.
Chicago (56-82) has had the foot off the gas over the last week. In fact, it has lost six straight and currently sits in second-to-last place in the American League standings. The White Sox have essentially packed it in at this point.
Miguel Gonzalez has been solid this season at 8-7 with a 4.11 ERA in 23 starts. Gonzalez is also 5-2 with a 4.09 ERA in 10 home starts. In his lone career start at Baltimore, Jose Quintana allowed five earned runs and two homers over 3 2/3 innings of a 3-5 loss.
The White Sox are 12-41 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 12-2 in Gonzalez's last 14 home starts. Baltimore is 8-1 in Gonzalez's last nine starts as a home favorite. Chicago is 2-8 in Quintana's last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Thursday.
Jeff Alexander
St. Louis Cardinals +130
The Cards are a nice value play here with Lynn getting the ball because he has had Cincy's number. The Cards are 5-0 in Lynn's 5 starts against the Reds, during which he's posted a 3.72 ERA. The Cards have scored an average of 8.6 runs in these games while winning by an average of 5.8 runs. I'll back the Redbirds with the more proven starter on the mound.
Tony Bucca
Rays vs. Angels
Play: Over 7½
You would think with Price pitching that this would be a slam dunk under. At 7' it implies an over. Yet 11 out of 19 starts have gone over in his games. Same thing for Williams where 11 out of 20 have gone over, 2 of his L3 starts. Both teams, Rays road games and Angels home games, average close to or more than a combined 9 runs per game.
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
Saunders is 6-7 on the road with a eye-popping 5.30 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and astronomical .335 batters against. Guthrie is 9-4 at home with a more manageable 4.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
Craig Davis
Your free play for Thursday is the NY Yankees over the Boston Red Sox with Peavy and Nova on the hill.
While I fully understand this game is the biggest rivalry in baseball, the Yankees are on fire recently (especially at home) and they don't care who is in front of them... they need every win they can get to try and catch Tampa Bay as the last Wild Card team in baseball.
And with Ivan Nova on the hill tonight, I really like their chances at home.
Nothing against Jake Peavy, but Nova has pitched very well of late including a complete game shutout of the Baltimore Orioles in his last start.
Nova, today, faces a Boston team that he's had mixed reviews against... winning twice at home and losing twice on the road. Good thing this game is at home. He's allowed only seven earned runs in his last four home starts, winning three of them and pitching better with each game.
Jake Peavy has been fairly solid this year, as well, but is 0-4 in his career against the Yanks despite a decent ERA. Why? Because for whatever reason he doesn't get a lot of run support when he faces New York.
Should be another typical New York/Boston matchup, but today's game belongs to Nova and the Yanks as your free play of the day.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Under in the Red Sox-Yankees series opener.
Boston put up 20 big runs last night in their home rout of Detroit, but prior to that outburst, the Red Sox had been 5-1-1 Under the total in their previous 7 games.
Look for them to return to lower-scoring form as they face Ivan Nova tonight.
Nova was just named the A.L. pitcher of the month as he went 4-0 in his 6 starts with an ERA of 2.08.
6 of Nova's last 8 season starts have ended up playing Under the total.
Boston will send Jake Peavy to the hill, and Peavy is 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA the last 3 times he has taken the ball to the mound. The Red Sox are on an 8-2-1 Under run their last 11 on the road.
Have to believe we are looking at a pitcher's duel tonight in the first of four big games from the Bronx.
Boston-New York stay low.
3♦ BOSTON-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Brad Wilton
Thursday comp play winner will be to take the Under as the Cardinals and Reds wrap up their series from Cincy.
Last night it took a rather lengthy 16 innings to decide the outcome, as the teams did combine for an Over - but just barely - in the third of four from Great American Ball Park.
The series numbers have shown the Over to be the play lately, as the Over is on an 8-2 run, but my thinking is both sides have to be fatigued after last night's marathon, and we will see the pitchers take control tonight.
Lance Lynn is due for a solid outing, as Lynn has been hit hard in each of his last 4 starts. Lynn did turn in a solid performance back on August 4th versus Cincy, working 8 innings while allowing just 2 runs to score.
Tony Cingrani returns to the rotation after a lower-back strain removed him from his last start on August 20th. Cingrani was on a 3-2 run with a 1.91 ERA in his previous 7 outings, and he does own a 2.76 ERA for the season.
Tired bats and bodies tonight yield to a low-scoring game in the series finale between the Cards and Reds.
2♦ ST. LOUIS-CINCINNATI UNDER
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is on the Baltimore Orioles, as they host the struggling Chicago White Sox. The line is on that precarious 160, but I'm willing to lay it, and not bother with the run line in this game.
I know the O's have slipped in the playoff chase after a rough 3-6 road trip, but if there were ever a perfect opportunity to claw their way back into the standings with this series here.
While the O's have lost two of three in Cleveland to fall one-half game behind the Indians and into fifth place in the American League wild-card standings, four games back of Tampa Bay, and despite them losing 14 of their last 23 games, the White Sox stumble into Baltimore having lost six straight.
Point blank, Baltimore is the better team, has more to play for and the White Sox are an abysmal mess right now. Take the O's
5♦ BALTIMORE