Chris Jordan
My free winner for Thursday night is the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals, and I want you listing both Tony Cingrani and Lance Lynn with this game.
In an all-important game for the National League playoff race, I like the left-handed Italian to get it done for the Reds, in his first start since Aug. 20, when he left early with a lower back strain after just 3-2/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He did throw a successful bullpen session Tuesday and told the Reds website he was ready to return to the mound.
Cingrani is 6-3 on the year with a 2.76, and barring another back injury, he has the stamina and durability to keep the Reds in a position to win. Besides, after last night's marathon loss, I think this is the Reds' game to win and he is catching the Cardinals' lineup in the right spot, possibly a bit overzealous.
As for Lynn, he steps to the hill after a rough August, winning just once and posting a 5.84 ERA in six starts. The right-hander has allowed at least three runs in a big inning for the opposing team, in four of his last five outings. The Reds can hit the ball, and I think the bats will be on fire to make up for missed opportunities last night.
Take the Reds, and list both.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is on an MLB total, as I like the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics going Over the posted number, based on the pitchers who are going in this game. All Total plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, and I want you to be sure the following pitchers are the starters of record on your ticket when making your play: Brad Peacock and Sonny Gray. If one or both of these pitchers is not going, this is a no-play.
Starting with the Astros, Peacock has been sketchy in his last two trips to the hill. Though he's 1-1 in those games, he has a rather sky-high 7.84 ERA, as he's allowed nine earned runs on 13 hits and six walks in 10-1/3 innings. Big difference from his three starts prior to, as he was 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA in those games, after giving up four earned runs on 11 hits and eight walks in 19-1/3 frames. And he is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA lifetime against the contending A's, who desperately need to pick up a win, and will be swinging for the fences on this kid.
I'm not convinced I can trust the A's, though. I know right-hander Sonny Gray is in after throwing 6-2/3 innings of shutout ball against the Rays in his last start, and yes both of the rookie's wins have come at home, where he's allowed just two earned runs over 21-2/3 innings. But ever heard of the due theory? Something tells me this boy is about to get rocked.
Even Sonny Corleone had the due theory kick in; I say Sonny Gray will have his.
I don't know who wins, but it's going Over.
3♦ Houston/Oakland OVER
The Real Animal
Florida Atlantic / East Carolina Over 55
East Carolina last week beat Old Dominion 52-38 with a 481-460 narrow edge in total yards. ECU QB Shane Garden (formally at Texas Tech) was 46-of-54 with no picks for 447 yards. The Pirates threw it 54 times and only attempted 22 rushes. Meanwhile Monarchs QB Taylor Heinicke went 38-of-51 for 338 yards with three touchdowns also ran another in. He certainly had no trouble moving the ball on the ECU defense. East Carolina runs a no-huddle offense with a 2-1 ratio of passes to rushes. I like any total with ECU ‘OVER’ providing it’s 56 or less. The Pirates lost last year’s New Orleans Bowl to Louisiana-Lafayette 43-34. Their final six games resulted in total points of 77, 124, 51, 76, 84, and 77 points. This team averaged 31.5 a game and allowed 31.6. You know with the ESPN cameras around, the Pirates are going to want to score points. I know Florida Atlantic didn’t show much on offense last week at Miami. But it’s a different athlete on defense that plays for the Hurricanes compared to East Carolina. FAU allowed 30.8 points per game last year. They should have allowed many more points at Miami. The Hurricanes dropped several easy touchdown passes early and then also fumbled at the 1-yard line. Miami had 503 total yards scoring 34 points. They could have easily had 50. I do expect ECU to run more tonight given the fact Miami had 303 yards on the ground at nearly eight yards per carry. Last week the two-QB system for FAU was a no-go after Greg Hankerson left the Hurricane game with bruised ribs. But he’s been cleared to play tonight. I expect the Owls to put significantly more points on the board tonight. “We had a lot of big sets against Miami, played a lot of base defense,” FAU Coach Carl Pelini said. “This week we will see a lot more three wides, four wides, five wides, sometimes empty, spread the field a lot more. Very, very different offense than Miami.” My sharp house had a bump at 2:18PM ET raising the ECU total from 53 to 56! That is some serious steam! FYI: ECU is 6-0 ATS the week before facing Virginia Tech.
Dr. Bob
EAST CAROLINA (-20½) 33 Florida Atlantic 17
My ratings using last year’s stats would have favored East Carolina by only 9 points and even though Florida Atlantic figures to be worse with a new starting quarterback and ECU should be better with improved defense I simply can’t justify a line this big. East Carolina beat Old Dominion 52-38 and outgained the Monarchs 488 yards at 6.7 yards per play to 460 yard at 6.1 yppl and those numbers are pretty close to what I had projected (a 10 point win and 6.8 yppl to 5.9 yppl). So, I’m pretty solid in my rating of East Carolina, which I rate at average offensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively. Florida Atlantic covered the spread in their 6-34 loss at Miami but they were out gained 250 yards at 3.4 yppl while allowing 505 yards at 7.4 yppl. The Owls’ new quarterbacks look terrible and my ratings have the FAU pass attack among the worst in the nation at 1.6 yards per pass play worse than average while the rushing attack is 0.7 yards per rushing play worse than average. My ratings project 305 yards and 17 points, which is actually what the odds makers predict given the line is 20.5 and the total is 55 points (that would be a predicted score of 17.25 to 37.75.
Where I see things differentially is in ECU’s production. I rate the Pirates’ attack as just average on a yards per play basis after being 0.2 yppl worse than average last season (5.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and I rate the FAU defense at 0.5 yppl worse than average with 8 starters returning from a unit that was 0.6 yppl worse than average last season. The Owls couldn’t stop the strong Miami rushing attack last week (315 yards allowed at 8.8 yprp) but they held future NFL quarterback Stephen Morris to just 5.9 yards per pass play (although it would have been a bit higher if not for a couple of dropped passes). East Carolina only ran the ball 17 times while running 56 pass plays last week so the fact that Florida Atlantic isn’t good defending the run may not be much of an issue and the Owls’ secondary could be better than I rate them (0.5 yppp worse than average) given how well they played last week at Miami. The line looks too high and I’ll lean with Florida Atlantic plus the points.
Harry Bondi
East Carolina / Florida Atlantic Over 55
Both of these squads can score but don't play a lick of defense! East Carolina has averaged 46 points a game in their last 8 games but are giving up 34 points per game in the same time period. Last week, the Pirates put up 52 points versus Old Dominion but allowed the Monarchs to score 38. Florida Atlantic should be able to score at least that and after facing Miami's tough defense last week they should be able to torch the Pirates weak secondary. Take the OVER 55 in tonight's East Carolina - Florida Atlantic shootout.