Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday September, 6

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Colorado RockiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado comes to Atlanta with a strong offense, fifth in baseball in runs scored, 6th in on base percentage and third in slugging, with a team batting average of .272 (4th). Starter Jhoulys Chacin has quietly been throwing well, with a 2-1 record and a 1.50 ERA his last three starts walking just 4. In his last starts, a win, Chacin fired a first-pitch strike to 21 of the 27 batters he faced. The Rockies are 10-3 in their last 13 games as an underdog. Braves starter Tim Hudson has an ERA of five his last three starts and the Braves are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play the Rockies.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rangers vs.Royals
Play: Over 9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Road favorites like the Rangers have played over the total 80% of the time off a 1 run road favored win at -140 or higher if they scored 5 or more runs and left 5 or less men on base. Texas has averaged over 5 runs per game this season and the Royals are swinging hot bats right now. Both Pitchers Feldman for Texas and Hochevar have terrible earned run averages this season as Both are over 5. Look for a high scoring game here tonight in the finale of this 4 game series.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kansas City RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Scott Feldman is 0-5 last five, and it hasn't been bad luck. The downside here is backing wildly erratic Luke Hochevar, but at the price the Royals are not a bad choice to upset the Rangers.

JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles -115
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Tonight's game is important to both squads as they are within a game of each other in the fight for the AL East divisional title. Before last night, they had identical records of 76-59, but the Yankees were 35-31 on the road, while the O's were 37-30 at home! NYY sends out young David Phelps (3-4, 3.13 ERa & 1.18 WHIP) who has been primarily a relief pitcher, and in his last "4" starts is 1-1, and in his last one he was part of a victory over Baltimore, even though he went only 4.2 innings, surrendered "3" runs and walked "6". For the O's it will be Jason Hamel in his first start since July 13th, as he is coming off the DL, still he is 8-6, 3.54 ERA & 1.24 WHIP, and was Baltimore's best starter this year prior to the DL. We like Hamel and the O's at home +103!

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh +4½ -106 over CINCINNATI
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Cincinnati opened as a 2-point choice and the money hasn’t stopped pouring in on the Bearcats ever since Pitt lost its opener to FCS opponent Youngstown State, 31-17. In that game, the Panthers defense allowed 386 total yards and allowed drives of 79, 92, 71, 78 and 67 yards.
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This is an overreaction to that loss. Upsets happen all the time and what usually follows is a wake-up call. Pitt cleaned house in the off-season and hired an entire new coaching staff. Insiders report that new coach Paul Chryst pushed players really hard, trying to chase away some bad seeds from the previous regimes (both Todd Graham's and Dave Wannstedt's). With a game under its belt and the motivation of last week's loss, chances are Paul Chryst's squad will respond. Chryst said he has been lifted by the players' reaction to the loss, the first in Pitt's long football history against a Division I-AA team. "I love right now where this group is at. They've had the right response”.
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The Bearcats will play their first game of the year and playing a team that has already played is not to their advantage. The Bearcats have returning starters at key positions but what they don’t have is a proven running back or QB. Isaiah Pead, who rushed for 1,259 yards last season has departed, which leaves backup George Winn. Munchie Legaux takes over at QB, having played limited time last season.
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This is a featured Thursday night game. The books have to be especially sharp in these isolated games or they can get buried. They didn’t make a “soft number”. The Panthers loss to YSU has caused the masses to believe this is a gift line. It’s not. Pitt has an outstanding record when being offered points, especially against this host, where they’re 6-1 against the spread in the past seven meetings. With red flags pointing in the Bearcats direction, we’re confident with the fade here.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee +115 over MIAMI
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Day game after a night game usually means that some regulars are going to rest but with the Brewers making a run, don’t expect Ron Roenicke to do so. Marlins manager, Ozzie Guillen is already working with a “B” line-up and is likely to rest or give several other September call-ups a chance to “get in there”.
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Miami is favored because Josh Johnson has been putting up solid numbers for five years. However, he’s labored plenty this year and has just seven wins in 27 starts to go along with a respectable but not typical 3.86 ERA. Johnson had surface stats that were off the charts in 2011 (1.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) until shoulder inflammation sidelined him. His average fastball velocity has dipped from 94 in April to 92 in his last four starts. Health is a concern and it’s been said that that the intense heat felt all around the majors this past summer has been unforgiving to pitchers suffering from fatigue. Could Johnson be in that group? The Marlins have lost his last five starts.
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Put Marco Estrada on your radar screen. The Brewers have won his last three starts and in terms of skills, no pitcher in baseball has been better since the all-star break. Estrada has 114 K’s and a mere 24 walks issued in 108 innings. Over his last 18 innings, covering three starts, he’s whiffed 27 while posting a 0.50 ERA. Estrada has an xERA of 3.12 over his past nine starts and really has a great chance to dominate this second tier lineup of the Fish. Regardless of outcome, the surging Brewers are a must play taking back a tag against this struggling lineup, pitcher and team.

DAVID BANKS

Pittsburgh / Cincinnati Under 48.5

The first Big East Conference game of the year takes place on Thursday night as the Cincinnati Bearcats open up their 2012 season vs. a Pittsburgh Panthers team coming off of an embarrassing loss at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, OH at 8:00 ET on ESPN. The Bearcats had an opening week bye while the Panthers now wish they had one too after losing at home 31-17 to Youngstown State out of the FCS, Pitt's first loss ever vs. a non-FBS school.

That loss marked the Pittsburgh coaching debut of Paul Chryst, and the contest was a nightmare even before it began when it was announced just before kickoff that six players were suspended for the opener for disciplinary reasons, including highly touted running back Rushel Shell. It has not yet been announced if the suspensions will be lifted for this game, so Shell, who is the leading rusher in Pennsylvania high school history, may or may not make his college debut Thursday. Without him, the Panthers managed an ordinary 369 total yards vs. an FCS defense in a game Youngstown State controlled from start to finish, much to the chagrin of the booing Pittsburgh home crowd. Other than the suspensions, Chryst is also Pittsburgh's fourth head coach in the last three years, and bringing in yet another coaching staff that is implementing new schemes on both offense and defense is another reason why the Panthers were so discombobulated vs. a supposed outclassed opponent. It is not as if Pittsburgh is lacking in talent, as quarterback Tino Sunseri is back for his senior season and the one good thing to come out of last week's disaster is that running back Ray Graham, who has rushed for over 2200 yards in his Pitt career and who had over 1000 all-purpose yards when he tore his ACL in the ninth game of the season last year, show no ill effects in his first game back while rushing for 71 yards on 14 carries (5.1 YPC).

The Bearcats return 11 starters from a ream that went 10-3 last year, a season that culminated with a 31-24 win over Vanderbilt in the Liberty Bowl. However, only four of those returning starters are on offense, so there will be some rebuilding on a unit that ranked 33rd in the nation in scoring at 33.3 points per game in 2011 and 48th in rushing offense at 178.5 yards per contest. The Cats will be hard pressed to match that success on the ground considering last year's leading rusher and Big East Offensive Player of the Year Isaiah Pead is now in the NFL and the team also lost three starting offensive linemen, two of which were All-Big East selections. Cincinnati does return its top two receivers, and although quarterback Zach Collaros has moved on, the new starter Munchie Legaux does have experience as he filled in when Collaros missed some time with injuries last season. The defense is more experienced with seven starters back, and it was one of the better defenses in the Big East last year, although two of the starters not returning were linebacker J.K. Schaffer and defensive tackle Derek Wolfe, both of whom were first team All-Big East members.

Despite the vast coaching turnover in recent years, Pittsburgh has dominated this head-to-head series from a betting standpoint, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Yankees -102FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees enter this crucial series with some momentum and a one-game lead in the division race after defeating Tampa Bay Wednesday. They have won 20 of their last 27 in Baltimore, and I like their chances tonight given how poorly Hammel has pitched lately. He is 0-4 with a 7.78 ERA in his last 4 starts and will be making his first start after missing nearly 2 months with a knee injury. I don't anticipate him to come out smoking against a New York club he has a 6.06 ERA against in 7 starts. He is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts against the Yankees with 2 of those losses coming this season.
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New York rookie David Phelps (3.13 ERA) had some success against Baltimore in Saturday's 4-3 win despite not having his usual command. With a little bit better command, I expect him to have even more success tonight. The Yankee bats should take care of the rest.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers -132FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Texas Rangers (81-55) are trying to lock up the AL West division and home-field advantage in the American League. The Kansas City Royals (61-75) are simply just playing out their season. Texas has taken two out of three from the Royals, and I look for it to win Game 4 tonight.
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I know Scott Feldman hasn't been the most impressive starter this season for Texas, but he has been better than Kansas City's starter. Feldman has owned the Royals, going 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in six career starts against them.
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Luke Hochevar is 7-13 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in 13 home starts.
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The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Texas is 72-34 in its last 106 vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 4 of a series. Bet the Rangers Thursday.

Ray MonohanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles -104FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees will kick-off this crucial four-game weekend series with David Phelps on the mound. The right-hander is 3-4 this season with a 3.13 ERA. Baltimore will counter with Jason Hammel in Game 1.
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Hammel has made 18 previous starts this season to compile an 8-6 record behind a 3.54 ERA. The Yankees are 20-7 in their last 27 games in Baltimore but 2-5 against the O’s in the last seven meetings, and are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
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The O's are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss, are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series and are 6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

MLB Predictions

Cubs / Nationals Over 8

The Chicago Cubs have dropped 5 straight including the first three of this series to fall to 51-85 on the season and an awful 17-51 on the road. Washington has enjoyed their three straight wins over the Cubs outscoring them 22-7 and have now won 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 games. The Nationals are 84-52 and 42-24 at home. Tonight's starter for Chicago will be Justin Germano who is 2-5 with a 5.52 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .286 opponents batting average this season. His ERA is actually higher as a starter due to two solid relief appearances. He is 2-4 with a 6.57 ERA over 7 starts. Also note that on the road he is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA and .308 opponents batting average. Jordan Zimmermann was having a great season with a 9-8 record, 3.01 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .253 opponent batting average, but has been struggling as of late. Zimmermann is 0-1 with a 9.88 ERA over his last 3 starts. His ERA is higher at home where he is just 2-3 with a 3.97 ERA (compared to 7-5 with a 2.16 ERA on the road). Take note that the OVER is 7-3 in the Cubs last 10 road games, 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs a team with a home winning % of .600 or higher, and 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games vs a right-handed starter. The OVER is also 6-1 in Germano's last 7 starts overall. The OVER is 7-2 in the Nationals last 9 games overall, 6-2 in their last 8 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. The OVER is also 8-2 in Zimmermann's last 10 home starts, and head to head 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings in Washington. Washington could put this OVER the total themselves if they keep their red hots bats going which have scored 20 runs over the past two games, but given Zimmermann's troubles lately I could see the Cubs scoring a few runs themselves to help push this OVER the total.

Chuck O'Brien

My free pick run is now at 104-67-2, and tonight I am playing the Over with the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, at Camden Yards.

With David Phelps and Jason Hammel headed to the mound for the Yankees and Orioles, respectively, I have to believe we're going to see a game in the double digits. Both are hittable, and it's not just because I think these are a pair of vulnerable arms, but more so because we're staring down the barrel of a crucial series between American League East rivals that are atop the division.

The Yankees are ahead of the Orioles by just one game, and let's be clear, with the Bombers mired in a 5-10 slump, it's safe to say a sweep by the O's would put them in front of New York by three games. Tampa Bay - which is in third place, 2-1/2 back of the Yanks - hosts the two-time defending American League champion Rangers over the weekend. Thus, with the Rays in a tough three-game set with Texas, both Baltimore and New York will surely be gunning for big wins.

And it begins tonight with a huge offensive explosion to set the tone for this four-game series.

Phelps faced the O's in his last start, and alloweed three runs over 4-2/3 innings while taking a no-decision in a Yankees win. He also walked six and was drilled for a home run. He's 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in seven big league starts and I think will be in store for a long night.

With Hammel, he'll be making his first start for the O's since July 13. He underwent right knee surgery, but before that wasn't pitching all that well. This is a tough series to come back to the mound to, especially when he's 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA lifetime versus the Bombers.

This one goes high tonight.

3♦ Yankees/Orioles OVER

Matt Rivers

Free play for Thursday will be the Texas Rangers over the Kansas City Royals.

With a 27-12 overall run in this rivalry, including wins in four of the last six this season, have to lay it with the first place Rangers to take the series finale tonight.

Both Scott Feldman and Luke Hochevar have been struggling of late, but with Texas heading to October playoff baseball, Ron Washington will need Feldman to get back on track in a hurry.

Feldman has lost his last five starts this season, and has been hit hard in all five of them. Feldman's last win did come against Kansas City back in early August, and he has pitched well versus the Royals, going 3-2 in his six starts against them with a 2.84 ERA. I expect him to end his skid versus the Royals tonight.

As for Hochevar, he is on an 0-4 run with a 5.75 ERA since his last win back on July 31st versus the Indians. Keep searching Luke, you will win one again soon...just not tonight versus the Rangers.

Texas the play as the road favorite.

4♦ TEXAS

Jeff Benton

Your Thursday freebie is the Yankees-Orioles Over the total.

First of four from Camden Yards for these teams battling for first place in the A.L. East, and I have the feeling we will see some runs tonight when David Phelps and Jason Hammel make the start.

The Yankees may only be 2-1-1 Over the total their last four games, but they were able to come up with six runs last night in a key win at Tampa Bay, and starter David Phelps sports an over five ERA the last three times he has started.

Phelps' last start did come versus the Orioles, as he allowed three runs in just over four innings before being relieved.

As for Baltimore, three of their last four games have landed Over the total, and starter Jason Hammel is making his first start since the middle of July.

Hammel's ERA was close to five in the last three starts he made before heading to the disabled list to undergo knee surgery.

When these teams last met at Camden Yards in late July they combined for 16 runs. Look for the runs to add up again tonight as New York and Baltimore open their long four-game set with a high-scoring affair.

Yanks-O's Over tonight.

1♦ N.Y. YANKEES-BALTIMORE OVER