SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
The Super Bowl champion Steelers open defense of their sixth title at Heinz Field with a matchup against the AFC rival Titans, who had the NFL’s best regular-season record last year.
Pittsburgh went 12-4 SU (9-7 ATS) to win the AFC North title, followed by a 3-0 SU run in the playoffs (2-1 ATS), holding off Arizona 27-23 in the Super Bowl but failing to cover as a 6½-point favorite. The Steelers finished the season on tears of 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 3,301 yards last year, but he had 15 INTs to go with his 17 TD passes for an offense that finished 22nd in the league (311.9 ypg). Pittsburgh’s defense helped make up for that, leading the league in total defense (237.2 ypg allowed) and scoring defense (13.9 points per game allowed).
Tennessee jumped out to a 10-0 start last season and cruised to the AFC South title with an NFL-best 13-3 record, tying for the league lead by going 12-4 ATS. However, after a first-round bye, the Titans’ season ended quickly with a 13-10 divisional-round playoff loss to Baltimore as a three-point home chalk. QB Kerry Collins, back as the starter in 2009, was effective if not spectacular last year, throwing for 2,676 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs. RBs Chris Johnson (1,228 yards, 9 TDs) and LenDale White (773 yards, 15 TDs) were the difference-makers, paving the way for the league’s seventh-best rushing attack (third in the AFC).
The Titans also finished second to Pittsburgh in scoring defense (14.6 ppg) and were seventh in yards allowed (293.6 per game) in 2008.
These teams met late in the regular season last year, with the Titans rolling to a 31-14 home victory as a one-point home underdog to secure the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Tennessee is 4-2 SU in the last six clashes in this rivalry, but the two teams have split those games at the betting window, alternating ATS wins and losses along the way. The underdog went 5-1 ATS in those six meetings.
Along with their current 7-2 ATS run, the Steelers are on pointspread upswings of 5-0 at home, 4-0 on Thursday and 6-1 in conference play, and they’ve cashed in four straight season openers. Likewise, the Titans are on ATS rolls of 8-0 in September, 16-5 as a pup, and 9-4 inside the AFC, and they cashed in six of their eight road games last season.
Defending Super Bowl champions have won nine consecutive season-openers (7-2 ATS).
For Tennessee, the “under” is on runs of 8-2 on the highway, 7-3-1 as a ‘dog and 6-2 in September. On the flip side, the over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-0 in Week 1 action, 13-4 against the AFC and a lengthy 39-16-2 at Heinz Field.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven contests overall and seven of the last eight battles in Pittsburgh.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Clemson (1-0 SU and ATS) at (15) Georgia Tech (1-0, 0-0 ATS)
Two teams coming off blowout victories to open the 2009 campaign square off in a key early-season ACC clash, with the 15th-ranked Yellow Jackets hosting Clemson at Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Star running back CJ Spiller ran back the opening kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown and the Tigers rushed for 202 yards en route to Saturday’s 37-14 rout of Middle Tennessee State, getting the money as an 18½-point home favorite. Going back to last season, Clemson is on a 5-2 SU and ATS run (5-1 SU and ATS in the regular season), and the winner has cashed in each of the team’s last 10 lined games.
Georgia Tech had little trouble with Jacksonville State on Saturday, cruising to a 37-17 victory in a non-lined home game. The Yellow Jackets finished with a 497-291 edge in total offense (335-98 on the ground), but they had five fumbles (three lost). Georgia Tech is 10-3 SU in the regular season since coach Paul Johnson took over before last year (7-2-1 ATS in lined games), scoring at least 31 points in its last four victories.
Going back to 2004, Georgia Tech is on a 4-1 run in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), including last year’s 21-17 victory as a two-point road chalk, which Clemson played several days after then-coach Tommy Bowden resigned. The visitor is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, and despite the Yellow Jackets’ triumph last season, the underdog is still 17-3 ATS in the last 20 series clashes.
Georgia Tech finished tied for first with Virginia Tech in the ACC Coastal Division last year, going 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS, including 3-1 at home (2-1-1 ATS). Clemson split its eight conference contests in 2008 (3-5 ATS), going 2-2 SU and ATS on the road.
The Tigers carry various positive and negative ATS trends, including 2-8 against winning teams and 3-8 on Thursday, but 16-5 as an underdog, 6-1 as a road pup and 7-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are on pointspread swings of 4-0 in September, but 3-7-2 as a home favorite.
The “under” has been the play in the last four Georgia Tech-Clemson meetings. Additionally, the “under” is on runs for the Yellow Jackets of 6-2 in ACC action, 5-2 in Septembers, 15-5 on Thursday and 7-1 after a SU victory. Finally, the Tigers carry “under” trends of 11-4 overall, 7-2 in conference, 7-1 on Thursday and 6-2 after a victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Seattle (72-68) at L.A. Angels (83-55)
The Mariners conclude a 10-game, three-city A.L. West road trip at Angel Stadium, with lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith (3-2, 3.88 ERA) trying to halt a four-game Seattle losing skid when he starts opposite Angels veteran John Lackey (9-7, 3.74).
Los Angeles jumped on Seattle early Wednesday, scoring four first-inning runs en route to a 6-3 victory. The Angels have won seven of their last 10, giving up a total of just 21 runs in the process. However, despite putting up a six-spot last night, the Angels’ once-red-hot offense has been held to three runs or fewer in six of its last eight games. Mike Scioscia’s club is on runs of 55-25 overall, 38-18 against southpaw starters and 27-10 on Thursday.
Seattle has lost four in a row following a four-game winning streak and it is now 19-42 in its last 61 games as an underdog, 2-6 in its last eight on the road and 1-5 in its last six on Thursday. On the bright side, the Mariners are on upticks of 7-5 against A.L. West foes and 5-2 versus right-handed starters.
These teams have split the season series, 9-9, but the Mariners are just 9-22 in their last 31 games at Angel Stadium.
Rowland-Smith has gone eight innings in each of his last two starts, allowing an identical three runs in eight innings each time out, losing 3-0 to the Royals in K.C. and then beating the A’s 6-3 on Friday. The southpaw made two starts against the Angels last September, losing them both despite allowing just four earned runs over 13 1/3 innings of work (2.70 ERA).
The Mariners have won four straight games that Rowland-Smith has started against A.L. West foes. Also, including his two starts against L.A., he’s appeared in eight games versus the Halos, going 0-1 with a 3.10 ERA in 20 1/3 innings.
Lackey is just a mediocre 5-5 with a 3.71 ERA in the friendly confines of Angel Stadium. However, Lackey has been brilliant in his last two, holding the A’s to one run on five hits of a 9-1 win back on Aug. 30, and throwing a one-run, complete-game, six-hitter in a 2-1 win in Kansas City on Saturday.
Los Angeles has lost five of Lackey’s last six starts versus teams with a winning record, but it is 20-9 in his last 29 starts versus divisional rivals and 7-1 in his last eight outings versus the Mariners. For his career, the burly right-hander is 11-9 with a 4.12 ERA in 24 starts against Seattle, including 1-1 with a 6.57 ERA in two outings this season
With Lackey on the mound, the “under” is on runs of 9-4 on Thursday and 5-2 against Seattle, but five of his last seven home starts have topped the total and five of his last six starts at Angel Stadium versus the M’s have gone over. Also, both of Rowland-Smith’s starts against L.A. have stayed low.
The under is 20-6-1 in Seattle’s last 27 games versus the A.L. West, but the over is 7-4-2 in the M’s last 12 roadies and 5-0 in their last five on Thursday. Meanwhile, the under for the Angels is on stretches of 6-0-1 overall, 5-2-1 at home and 7-3-1 against the A.L. West. Lastly, the under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 Mariners-Angels battles, including 4-1-1 in Anaheim.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
DUNKEL
Seattle at LA Angels
The Angels come off a 6-3 win last night and look to build on their 9-3 record in John Lackey's last 12 starts after scoring 5 or more runs in the previous game. LA is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200)
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Wells) 15.466; Colorado (Contreras) 16.146
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-210); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-210); Under
Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.419; Washington (Hernandez) 13.339
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-190); Over
Game 905-906: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (West) 14.393; NY Mets (Parnell) 15.379
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over
Game 907-908: Atlanta at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 14.571; Houston (Oswalt) 14.822
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-130); Over
Game 909-910: Minnesota at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 14.646; Toronto (Cecil) 15.895
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+135); Under
Game 911-912: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Washburn) 14.735; Kansas City (Dinardo) 15.428
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Under
Game 913-914: Seattle at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.551; LA Angels (Lackey) 15.356
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200); Over
NFL
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
The defending champion Steelers open the regular season against Tennessee on September 10. The Steelers are the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5)
Game 451-452: Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 140.646; Pittsburgh 148.444
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 33
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 35
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5); Under
NCAAF
Clemson at Georgia Tech
The Tigers look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Clemson is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Georgia Tech favored by just 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+5 1/2)
Game 301-302: Clemson at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 93.177; Georgia Tech 95.709
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 2 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 5 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+5 1/2); Under
WNBA
New York at Detroit
The Shock look to bounce back from last night's loss in Minnesota and build on their 6-2-1 ATS record in their last 9 games following a SU defeat. Detroit is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6 1/2)
Game 601-602: New York at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: New York 107.701; Detroit 117.305
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9 1/2; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 6 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Indiana at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.517; Chicago 111.926
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 137 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 146
Dunkel Pick: Chicago; Under
Game 605-606: San Antonio at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 111.936; Sacramento 109.403
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 154 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 158
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1 1/2); Under
Game 607-608: Phoenix at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.176; Seattle 113.932
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 173
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+6); Over
Masterbets
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Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Bet: Under
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The line has opened low at 35 points but no one is biting, and this alone could be significant. Last time these two teams met it was a high scoring affair, but in Pittsburgh and the first week of the new season one can expect conservative play scoring and a game that ends closer to 30 total points. Our proprietary database suggests that the right bet on the total points at any number 33 or higher is to take the UNDER.
Karl Garrett
Tennessee at PITTSBURGH
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Heading to the NFL this Thursday night for my free play, as despite the Steelers defense being ranked # 1 overall in the league last year, I am taking this Tennessee-Pittsburgh game to go OVER the total.
Every season you think that Henz Field is going to host a bevy of low-scoring games, what with the weather being as sloppy as it can be, and the field getting as torn up as it has, BUT Pittsburgh's home turf has been an OVER players haven, as 6 of the 10 games played their last season eclipsed the posted price, and 30 of the last 43 overall in Pittsburgh have also gone OVER the total.
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You want to go back further?
OK, how does a 47-22 OVER mark the last 69 games played in the Steel Town sound?
Throw in last year's 31-14 Tennessee home win over Pittsburgh heading OVER the total, and I just get the feeling that some how, some way, tonight's opening game of the NFL season is going to see some points scored.
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G-Man on the OVER.
3♦ OVER
Drew Gordon
Minnesota -140 at TORONTO
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Now on a 55-40 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Astros over the Braves 2-1 Wednesday. For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Minnesota/Toronto match up.
Blue Jays may have gotten the best of Scott Baker in his season opener back in April, tagging him for 6 runs in 4 innings... But you better believe it's going to be a hell of a lot tougher this time around. At that time, Baker was coming off the DL (shoulder), and it took him until June to get his act together. But since then he's been razor sharp, going 11-1 over his L18 starts, and he's been even better of late, going 7-0 with a solid 3.04 ERA over his L11 outings! The Twins righty is out for redemption this afternoon, and that's bad news for Blue Jays-backers!
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On the flip side, southpaw Brett Cecil gets the nod for Toronto, and to say he's struggling is a gross understatement! Cecil is 1-3 with a disgusting 10.03 ERA over his L4 starts, and it looks like the rookie has pretty much hit the "wall." This will be his last start of the season, and while he's had some stretches of solid play, right now he's nothing short of a liability.
Finally, sitting 5 1/2 games back from Detroit and the top of the AL Central, the Twins need to start stringing together some victories, especially with their hottest pitcher on the mound this afternoon. With a bullpen that's posted an impressive 2.33 ERA over their L3 games, the Twins have a domianant edge on the mound in this one, and I expect that to be the difference Thursday.
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Take Minnesota behind Baker over Toronto and Cecil in this MLB match up.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta at HOUSTON -120
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Second straight FREE winner on Wednesday when the Marlins delivered the victory in New York against the Mets. Tonight I'll make it three in a row with a comp play winner on the Astros as they host the Braves in Houston.
These two teams have played some thrillers in the first two games of this series with Atlanta getting the Tuesday win 2-1, only to have the Astros turn the tables and win Wednesday's contest 2-1 thanks to a walk-off, bases loaded single from Miguel Tejada.
Today's play is on the home team as we're looking for Roy Oswalt to stand up and be Roy Oswalt tonight. Be that dominating pitcher the city loves and hitters fear. Oswalt has been looking better lately, allowing three runs or less in each of his last four starts with the Astros winning eight of his last 10 contests.
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Opposite Oswalt will be the Braves' Derek Lowe who is just 7-6 on the road with a 4.87 ERA. He's allowed three runs or more in three of his last four starts. Atlanta is on slides of 1-5 when Lowe starts against a team with a losing road record and 1-7 overall.
Meanwhile, look at what the Astros do with Oswalt on the hill, 62-23 at home, 35-16 when he gets four days off and 57-21 when he's a home chalk. As a team, Houston is on runs of 5-1 overall, 9-2 at home and 7-1 agaisnt N.L. East teams.
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Houston has the 11-4 advantage when the Braves travel to the Lone Star State. Look for the Astros to eventually put two or three up and win this one as Oswalt looks magnificent.
2♦ HOUSTON
Stephen Nover
Cincinnati at COLORADO
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Normally I wouldn't favor an under with this type of starting pitcher matchup. But these two teams are on under rolls and Kip Wells and Jose Contreras are below the radar screen right now.
The Reds are 13-3-1 to the under in their last 17 road games. They have gone under in all but eight of their last 31 games.
Wells is enjoying his finest stretch of the season going 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. He one-hit the Braves in his last start at Atlanta on Sunday going six innings. Wells knows the Rockies having been with them at the start of last season.
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The Rockies still may be missing their two top home run hitters, Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart. They've combined for 47 homers and 139 RBIs this season. Both have missed the last couple of games because of sore backs.
Colorado has gone under in four of its last five games. Jose Contreras was impressive in his Rockies debut on Saturday giving up one run on eight hits with five strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings versus Arizona. Contreras was struggling with the White Sox. But he's in a new league now and he's had great sessions with Colorado pitching coach Bob Apoduca, who apparently has fixed some of Contreras' mechanical flaws.
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The under has cashed in six of the past seven meetings between the Reds and Rockies.
3♦ UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Clemson at GEORGIA TECH
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Another comp play winner on Wednesday, as the Cubs come through.
Now a 32-15-3 comp play run the last 50 days.
Thursday night college action, and while Clemson and Georgia Tech put up some big scores in their season-openers, we are looking for things to tighten up a little bit at Bobby Dodd Stadium this evening.
Both schools did a decent job on the defensive end last weekend, and figure to be able to make enough key stops in this one to hold the game UNDER the posted price.
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It should be pointed out that the last four series meetings have seen a combined 38, 16, 38, and 19 points.
ALL four of those games stayed UNDER the total, and with the prime-time lights perhaps giving both squads a little bit of the jitters, we will play this Thursday night ACC clash to hold UNDER the posted total as well.
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Play the LOW.
1♦ UNDER
Jeff Benton
Clemson at GEORGIA TECH
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Got my second straight 4♦ free-play winner with Wednesday’s as the Angels covered the run line against the Mariners. For Thursday, I’ll make it three in a row by playing the Clemson-Georgia Tech game UNDER the total.
Both of these squads put up 37 points in their season openers on Saturday, but that’s misleading because both played crappy competition, with Georgia Tech crushing Jacksonville State and Clemson pounding Middle Tennessee State. Tonight, I fully expect the defenses (which yielded a total of 31 points last week) to take control of this game.
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For one thing, defenses are almost always ahead of offenses in the early going in college football (where there is no preseason). Besides that, these ACC rivals know each other very well as they meet every season. And in the last four years, the defenses have dominated this matchup, with final scores of 10-9, 31-7, 13-3 and 21-17. All four stayed under the total. In fact, going back to 2002, only one of the last seven Clemson-Georgia Tech clashes has featured more than 43 combined points.
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Clemson has given up 21 points or fewer in 11 of its last 12 regular-season games, while the Yellow Jackets last year allowed an average of 10.1 points through their first seven contests after allowing just 15.5 ppg in their first eight games of 2007. Throw in the fact that the under is 15-5 in Georgia Tech’s last 20 marquee Thursday games and 7-1 in Clemson’s last eight on Thursday – not to mention 11-4 in the Tigers’ last 15 overall – and we’ll confidently play this one low.
4♦ CLEMSON-GEORGIA TECH UNDER
Charlie Scott
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Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Over 35
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For tonight's matchup, I don't know if there's enough of an advantage for a big play. However, due to the fact that it's opening night, and I'm off to a 4-0 start in NCAAF, I feel we have enough of an edge in the Over for a play. My main reason for playing the Over, is that with low totals like this 1 turnover for a TD almost insures a winner, and I expect a couple of turnovers tonight. Both teams Coaching staffs are very good and have been game planning for tonight's game for weeks if not months, and both Coaches will use trick plays. The weather should not play a factor as it might rain a little, but there won't be any wind. I'm not a big trend handicapper, but do believe that in order to predict the future, one must look at the past. In my new data base I plugged AFC Conference game, with a total of 36 or less, played in September for Years 2006,07,08. The Over was 7-1. I'm on the Over !
Rob Vinciletti
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Under 9.5
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The Phillies have gone under in 17 of 20 games as a road favorite of minus 175 or more. In September they have gone under in 7 of their 8 games. Philly has struggled at the plate averaging just 2.4 runs on .217 hitting over the past seven games. Washington has not fared much better averaging just 3 runs per game on .245 hitting in that same time span. Tonight the pitching match up is J.Blanton for Philly and L.Hernandez for the Nationals. Blanton has pitched real well in the second half after struggling early in the year. He should have no problems tonight against a sub par Washington team. Hernandez pitched most of the season with the Mets. In his last two road starts he has pitched very well. While he has had struggles this year,he is known for his big efforts when facing top tier teams. I look for a well pitched low scoring game here tonight.
Bob Harvey
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Play Under 8
John Lackey looks to give the Angels and their ailing offense a boost tonight in the finale of their three-game series against the Mariners and Ryan Rowland-Smith.
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The two teams combined for nine runs last night meaning most betters pushed. But that is one of the rare games recently in which these two teams have even flirted with topping the total.
The Angels got four runs in the first inning in Wednesday nights game and two in the eighth on a Juan Rivera homerun but in between were a lot of goose eggs something the Angels have seen a lot of lately. The big problem has been hitting with runners in scoring position. Anaheim was just 1-11 in Mondays extra inning victory over the Ms and just 2-10 last night. The hallmark of Mike Scoscia coached teams is to get the key hit and if need be play the station-to-station game. That hasnt been happening lately and neither has the long ball save for Riveras blast.
Despite the offensive funk the Angels are now 5-2 in their last seven games thanks to a starting staff that has dominated over that stretch posting a ridiculous, and I mean that in a good way, a 1.55 ERA.
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Seattle continues to scratch for runs. Theyve managed just 5 in their first two games of the series and with Lackey on the hill their offensive problems more than likely wont improve tonight. Lackey is 9-7 on the year and has lowered his ERA to 3.74. Hes been especially tough over his last three starts going 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09.
Ryan Rowland Smith might be one of the best young pitchers you never heard of. In his ten starts, Rowland-Smith has a 3.88 ERA in 62 innings and over his last three outings his ERA is 3.22. Hes coming off a four-hitter in his last start against Oakland. Hes a big reason that Seattle has the 6th best pitching staff in baseball. The Mariners bullpen is solid as well, ranking 11th in MLB.
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Overall Seattle is 39-27-1 to the UNDER on the road this season and the UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine series meetings.The key to a low scoring game is simple. If we see lots of Lackey and very little of the Angels bullpen, then thats a good thing. If Smith is on his game we figure to see another 4-3 type game and thats plenty good for me.
Ben Burns
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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The final meeting in the season series between the Mariners and Angels is expected to pit Seattle southpaw Ryan Rowland-Smith against LA right-hander John Lackey. I expect that matchup to favor the Angles.
Lackey got off to a slow start this season. In fact, his ERA was above six in mid-June and was still a lofty 5.18 in the first week of July. However, it's been steadily coming down ever since. He enters this game with a 9-7 record and a respectable 3.74 ERA. Keep in mind that this guy was 58-30 the past four years (incl. 19-9 in 2007) with his ERA never above 3.75. In other words, he knows how to pitch! That's certainly been the case lately. In fact, in his last two starts, Lackey has allowed just a single run through 17 complete innings. That's a 0.53 ERA.
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With all due respect to Smith, who has been solid for the Mariners, he's not currently pitching quite as well as Lackey. Other than his first start (when he allowed two unearned runs in 3.1 innings) Smith has allowed two earned runs or more in all of his starts this season. Of course, there's nothing wrong with that - it's just difficult when the opposing pitcher is allowing 0 or 1 runs. Making things even more difficult for Smith, who has a poor 5.23 ERA on the road, the Angels have a much better hitting lineup than the Mariners - and they're playing in front of their home fans. Consider laying the wood with LA
MTi Sports
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Florida Marlins at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets
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The Mets are 4-0 in the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two and they were a dog in the second. The Marlins are 0-5 on the road when they are off two wins in which they never trailed. Take New York.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: Philadelphia over Washington
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Simply, a difficult number (2-to-1) to lay on the road, but the Phillies appear to have solved the Nationals September jinx with the help of Raul Ibanez coming to life. For Philadelphia work horse RHP Joe Blanton gets the call in what should be short work versus fading veteran Hernandez of Washington. The Nationals are 0-4 with the hurler as an underdog last four times out, while the Phillies are 16-5 at Washington (before Wednesday night).