INSIDER SPORTS GROUP
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Selection: Seattle/Los Angeles Under 8
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Both of today's starting pitchers have been pitching very well as of late. Seattle Mariners (Ryan Rowland-Smith) has a 3.22 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Los Angeles Angels (John Lackey) has a 2.35 ERA in his last 3 starts. We expect a solid performance (once again) from both these starting pitchers.
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These teams have a history of playing low-scoring games. In fact, the UNDER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
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Take the Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels Under 8
SportsBook Breakers
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4-Star PITTSBURGH -5 over Tennessee
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In one of the easiest games of week one to evaluate, look for Pittsburgh to control both sides of the ball in a convincing week one victory.The reason that this game is easy to evaluate is because neither team has been overhauled from its 2008 form, sans one major excep-tion. Pittsburgh lost one major contributor from their 2008 team, CB Bryant McFadden, and another solid player in WR Nate Wash-ington, without adding anyone of significance except through the draft. However, expect second-year players RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed to make major steps forward in ‘09. Tennessee added Washington and DT Jovan Haye, but the man Haye’s replaces is the key to the offseason. Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth has left Tennessee for the Washington Redskins and that loss is going to be a major factor in the Titans’ season. When Haynesworth missed games in the last several seasons, the Titans were a different defense. This good but not eliteTitans’ defense will not be enough to dominate teams on the side of the ball that this team has been built to win with.Now many are pointing to the 31-14 Titans’ win over Pittsburgh at home in week 16 of 2008 as a reason to take Tennessee. This is something to use to your advantage as this game is keeping the line for this week one tilt down. For starters, last year’s game was much closer than the score would indicate. The Steelers led 14-10 in the middle of the third quarter and a 83-yard Tennessee interception return for a touchdown in the final minute of the game made the score much more lopsided than the game. The main indicator that this game was a fluke is the 4-0 turnover margin in favor of Tennessee. This is not something that is repeatable or likely to happen again Thursday night. Pittsburgh actually outgained Tennessee by more than 50 yards in last year’s meeting.Pittsburgh has been extremely successful in season openers of late. In Pittburgh’s last six week one games, the Steelers have won all six, five by at least 11 points. In the last four season openers, the Steelers have covered all four by at least 11 points.The Steelers need to start off with a win as they travel to Chicago and Cincinnati the next two weeks. The Steelers are 14-2-1 ATS (8.1 ppg) and 17-0 SU (14.9 ppg) since November 13, 1995 as a home favorite of at least 4 points before week 15 when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. There is a reason Tennessee was a two-point home dog to the Steel-ers- last year, just as there is a reason Pittsburgh’s futures win total is 10.5 -130, while Tennessee’s is -9 -110. This line would be higher if not for last year’s game and Tennessee’s 13-win season in 2008.
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Prediction: PITTSBURGH 24 Tennessee 13
Scott Spreitzer
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Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
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I'm taking the underdog Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon. If Minnesota doesn't catch the Tigers in the AL Central, they can blame it on their lack of wins against lefties, and their bad numbers against the AL East (10-21). Minnesota is winless in road day games against southpaws, going 0-8 while averaging just 2.3 rpg. Heck, they're 4-19 overall in road games against lefties. Making life tougher on Thursday is the fact that they have never faced Toronto lefthander Brett Cecil, who has been at his best in daytime action. Cecil has allowed only 14 earned runs in six afternoon outings, spanning 33 1/3 IP, for a 3.78 ERA. He's "punched-out" 29 batters in those games, for a healthy, 7.84 K's per 9 IP ratio. I expect Cecil to get plenty of support from his offense in this one. The Jays slam righties in home day games, going 15-5 and averaging 5.3 rpg! Combine Toronto's record in this spot with Minny's 0-8 mark mentioned above, and we have a 23-5 play-on situation.
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Play on: Toronto
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
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Looking for Minnesota to finally cash an Over ticket as tonight they face Toronto's Brett Cecil, who has an ERA over 10.00 in his last three starts. Also, Scott Baker was rocked in his previous start vs. the Blue Jays, giving up six runs in four innings in a 12-2 loss. He is also 5-1 Over after allowing 1 ER or less in his previous outing. Toronto is 5-1 Over as a home dog of +125 or more this season. Expect plenty of runs this afternoon.
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Play on: Over
LT Profits
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
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The Detroit Tigers have blown a couple of chances to extend their 5.5-game lead in the American League Central by dropping the first two games of this series vs. the lowly Kansas City Royals, but we look for Detroit to respond in emphatic fashion today.
Sure, Jarrod Washburn has been a major disappointment since being acquired by the Tigers, but facing Kansas City is just what he needs to return to the fine form he displayed while with the Seattle Mariners earlier this season. His best start in a Tiger uniform came against there Royals, when he tossed eight scoreless innings while allowing just three hits at Comerica Park on August 14, marking his sixth consecutive Quality Start vs. Kansas City over the last three seasons.
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Lenny DiNardo is making his first start ever as a member of the Royals, but he has started in the Major League before with very mediocre results. In fact, he made 29 starts over the last three years for the Oakland Athletics and Boston Red Sox, and he is 10-15 with a 4.93 ERA and an ugly 1.59 WHIP in his brief career. The southpaw must now contend with a Detroit lineup that has hit considerably better vs. lefties (.273) than vs. righties (.245) the last 10 games.
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Besides, the Tigers are probably in a foul mood and can be expected to give their all today in an attempt to avoid what would be an embarrassing sweep at this time of the season.
Pick: Tigers -1.5
EZWINNERS
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
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The Phillies starting pitcher Joe Blanton has now had eleven straight quality starts. Blanton is opposed by the National's Livian Hernandez who only has two quality starts in his last six outings. The Phillies have already roughed up Hernandez once this season to the tune of ten hits and seven earned runs in only three innings pitched and I see no reason why they won't do the same in this match up. The Phillies are now 17-5 in their last 22 games at Washington. Play Philadelphia on the runline.
DAVE COKIN
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MINNESOTA TWINS / TORONTO BLUE JAYS
TAKE: MINNESOTA TWINS
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Scott Baker has never beaten the Blue Jays, but I believe he'll end that streak here. Baker has been rock solid for the Twins, and he owns a substantial edge over Jays rookie Brett Cecil, who sure looks like he's about gassed at this point. The Twins are in need of every win right now to maintain any hopes of catching the Tigers, and I like them to earn an important victory here.
JIM FEIST
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SEATTLE MARINERS / LOS ANGELES ANGELS
TAKE: SEATTLE MARINERS
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Seattle is the dog here, but comes to town with a decent young pitcher on the mound in Ryan Rowland-Smith. The kid throws strikes and has been consistent. In his last 3 starts he has a 3.22 ERA. John Lackey has the reputation of an ace, but has been up and down much of the season with a 9-7 record. This is an excellent spot for the road dog with the under the radar arm. Play the Mariners.
Tommy Gill
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Pittsburgh Steelers -6
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When I was looking at this match up today in Pittsburgh I only could see a few different angles for this game. Both teams have good ATS numbers in certain situations and Tennessee has been good on the road ATS while Pitt has been good at home ATS. I dont know if a lot of you all remember but when Tennessee was stomping on the towels at the end of the regular season match up last year I was going to take Pitt in a revenge angle this season. Pitt did out play Tennessee last year in Tennessee but due to turnovers they ended up losing the game. First off Pitt has the best defense in the league bar none while Tennessee does have a top 10 D this season I still think they will have to improve with out Hanseworth in the middle for them this year stuffing the run. Pittsburgh should have no problem in a high-energy type of game getting a hard fought win. Looking for a 20-10 type of defensive slugging game today.
John Ryan
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Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta as they face Houston set to start at 8:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 122-77 making 58.5 units with the average play a +111 DOG. Play against any team that is a bad offensive team scoring <=4.1 runs/game facing an average NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA=4.20 to 5.20 and a WHIP of 1.250 or better on the season. Oswalt starts for Houston tonight and he is having a decent season, but has been suffering from a lower back ailment for at least the last month. He throws FB, curve, and slider. Specifically, he throws FB 68% and 78% when behind in the count. Batters are hitting 274 on the FB. He is certainly one of the very rare RH pitchers that will challenge LH hitters with a curve ball. He throws that curve 22% of the time to LH hitters and only 14% to RH. He does throw a below average change to LH hitters as well. The Braves have the type of hitters that can work the counts in their favor and get favorable hitting opportunities. Take the Braves.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -109
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Bottom Line: The Phillies really should have covered the run line last night, but I like them to do it here against the struggling Nats and with the struggling Hernandez on the hill. The Nats have lost 10 of 11 and Hernandez's teams have dropped 13 of his last 15 starts. The right-hander is just 2-9 with a 6.65 ERA over that span. Take Philly on the run line.
Sammy Jankus
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NOTE: Sammy is 'The Reverse Barometer' so always play the OTHER SIDE of who he likes!
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4* Twins-Blue Jays to go OVER 9
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Folks, this will be a true test of my ability to turn chicken salad into chicken s**t. The Minnesota Twins have failed to go 'Over' the total in 13 consecutive games, logging 12 Unders and one tie. Over that 13-game span, the Twinkies have averaged a pathetic 3 RPG. So if the Twins are only good for 3-4 runs today, can Toronto put up the other 5-6 runs against Minny pitcher Baker? Like George Bush the Elder used to say, "Ain't gonna happen!" I'm loading up on these two chump squads to stay well below the 9-run barrier this afternoon – so that means your play (and I feel awful doing this to you) is on OVER THE TOTAL.
Dominic Fazzini
Detroit at KANSAS CITY
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Jarrod Washburn (9-8, 3.55 ERA) has not panned out like Detroit hoped he would when it acquired him from Seattle at the trade deadline.
The veteran left-hander is just 1-2 with a 6.81 ERA in six starts with the Tigers.
That said, Washburn has been solid against Kansas City in his career, going 8-6 with a 2.94 ERA in 19 games (18 starts). He allowed just three hits in eight scoreless innings vs. the Royals on Aug. 14 in a no-decision.
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K.C. starter Lenny DiNardo is making his first major league appearance of the season so the Royals can give ace Zack Greinke an extra day of rest.
DiNardo was 10-5 with a 3.32 ERA for Triple-A Omaha, but he is just 9-12 with a 5.66 ERA in 29 career big-league starts. The left-hander also has a 20.25 ERA in two relief appearances against Detroit.
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The Tigers are trying to avoid being swept in this series, and I just can't see Kansas City pulling it off against the AL Central leaders. Plus, Washburn has a 3.18 ERA in 10 road starts this year, and the southpaw is 6-2 with a 2.20 ERA in 12 career games at Kauffman Stadium. Take the Tigers on the run line today.
3♦ DETROIT -1.5
Hunter Price
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Seattle Mariners vs. LAA Angels
Play: Seattle Mariners
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As for today's card I would like to take a shot at a fat dog on the road in the Seattle Mariners. This is a team that is 4-2 on the year in game 3 of a road series after losing the first 2 games of the series. Those 4 wins come against the likes of Nick Blackburn of the Twins (who back in May was one of the top 5 home pitchers in baseball), Trevor Cahill of the A's, CC Sabathia of the Yankees, and Tommy Hunter of the Rangers. While not all of the starters they have gone against have been Cy young caliber guys they include some rock solid teams. The M's also get to face Lackey today and have done well against him in their last 2 meetings getting 5 runs off him in each start. Rowand-Smith on the other hand for Seattle has held the Angels in check over his last 2 match ups giving up 2 and 3 runs in each. The line for today's game continues to go up so if you are patient I think you can get close to +190 - +195 by this evening.
BIG AL
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Seattle at Los Angeles
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Most people take it for granted that when they look at the A.L. standings they will see the Los Angeles Angels at the top of the West Division. And that may be where they are today, but folks may forget that it took them about three months to get there as they were not in first place until the beginning of July. Now that they're where most people are used to seeing them, they will have to fight hard to keep it that way for another month as Texas simply refuses to go away, sitting only four games behind right now with less than a month to go. All the more reason for veterans like John Lackey to step up in games like this as Seattle would love to play the part of spoiler and lefthander Ryan Rowland- Smith would like nothing better than to prove that he belongs in the Mariners rotation heading into next season. It seems that the Mariner bats usually come out for Smith, especially when he's pitching on the road as in his four road starts this season, the Mariners have averaged exactly six runs and they've needed to do that because the Australian's road ERA in those four starts is over two runs higher than his home ERA (5.23 vs. 3.21). And in those four road starts, the total runs have been 44 or an average of 11 runs per game.
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PLAY OVER