Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 8,2011

Marc Lawrence

Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Kansas City Royals

When the Royals visit the Mariners in Seattle in the opener of a four-game series Thursday evening Kansas City will send Luke Hochevar ot the mound knowing he is in great KW form with four walks and 20 strikeouts in his last three starts. Meanwhile his opponent, Jason Vargas, enters tonight's contest in lousy current form with an 8.75 ERA in his last four starting efforts knowing he is 1-11 in his MLB career team starts during the month of September. With Vargas 5-10 at home with a 5.19 ERA this season, look for the Royals to draw first blood here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Nick Parsons

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
PICK: Under

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

Coming into Wednesday the Red Sox are 85-56; 42-29 at home and 43-27 on the road.

Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in 66 of 132 this year (with nine "pushes").

Andrew Miller (6-2, 5.27 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors; Miller is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs and five hits in just 1 1/3 innings of work.

Note though that Miller has won his previous two outings while compiling a 0.77 ERA.

In the other dugout: Coming into Wednesday the Blue Jays are 70-72; 34-35 at home and 36-37 on the road.

Toronto has seen the total go "under" the number in 63 of 138 this year (with four "pushes").

Rickey Romero (13-10, 2.97 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; Romero gave up an uncharacteristic five runs off eight hits with three walks over 6 2/3's innings of work in a loss to the Yanks last Saturday.

Note though that that snapped a six game win streak over eight starts for the south-paw.

Romero is 7-3 with a 2.93 ERA North of the border this year.

Bottom line: With these two starters on the hill tonight, both of whom are coming off sub-par outings and are anxious to return to form, why not place a wager on the "under" in this contest?

David Chan

Indians @ White Sox
PICK: Over

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak above the posted number.

David Huff (2-3, 2.81 ERA) gets the start for the Indians.

Huff gave up five runs off six hits over six frames of work in his team's 5-1 setback to the Royals last Saturday.

He's now allowed at least three runs in two of his last three outings and is 1-2 in that span.

Huff is 1-2 on the road with a 3.98 ERA this year.

He'll be opposed by Gavin Floyd (12-10, 4.45 ERA) who gave up four runs off eight hits over five frames of work on Saturday vs. the Tigers; he struck out four and walked no one.

Floyd has been the beneficiary of run support of late; he's 3-0 with a 3.98 ERA over hits last five starts overall.

The bats come alive against these inconsistent starters in this important divisional matchup; all signs point to a high-scoring affair!

Jordan Haimowitz

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: New Orleans Saints +4½

Let's get the season started off right. My first play of the year will be a FREE PLAY.

Drew Brees and the Saints are stock piled with talent and are led by one of the leagues best coaches in Sean Payton.

In reference to the Packers, in my eyes, the verdict is still out. Led by phenom Aaron Rodgers, this team won the superbowl last season getting hot at the right time. The offense overall is more of a question mark to me then the defense.

How good is that WR group? Will Ryan Grant hold up?

I do not buy Green Bay as a 4.5 point favorite against a seasoned team who has also recently won a superbowl led by an elite QB just as good as his counterpart.

Play on New Orleans.

Jim Feist

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets

This is a tough spot for the Braves, a double header coming off a showdown series with the Phillies on the road. The Braves bring up 20-year old Julio Teheran for a second stint. The kid got two goes in May and didn't pitch well, giving up 10 hits and 4 walks in 8+ innings for a 5.16 ERA. This Atlanta offense is 18th in baseball in runs scored, 25th in on base percentage, and faces New York Met righty Dillon Gee (12-5, 4.48 ERA), who is 2-0 against Atlanta this season with a 2.49 ERA. Play the NY Mets.

Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

Green Bay/ New Orleans Under 47: The Under is 9-3-1 in New Orleans last 13 games during Week 1. I know we have two offense that can score as soon as they get off the bus, but I have a feeling this will be lower scoring than most think. Sure the Pack can score from the locker room, but this team also has a very good defense that led the league in sacks last year, plus they held opposing QB's to a passer rating of 67.2, which was also best in the league. New Orleans is another team that can score anywhere in the stadium, but they may turn to some more runs this year as Adding Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles would suggest. I also expect them turn to the run a little more as a way to keep that awesome pass rush of the Pack honest, plus Green bay did allow 4.7 ypc last year. More running should keep the clock churning. Last year the Saints defense wasn't that bad as they allowed just 315 ypg overall and 198 ypg through the air and while this unit is a bit weaker, I feel that they will have enough to keep Green Bay's scoring down. I just see more defense than offense in this one as the teams put no more than 40 points on the board.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Arizona at Oklahoma State

The Cowboys rang up over 60 points and 600 yards of total offense in their opening week 61-34 win over Louisiana, which means good things here for Over bettors. OSU is 14-2 Over following a win by three touchdowns or more as well as 12-1 Over at home after scoring 42 or more points last game. Additionally, Ok State has gone Over in eight straight home games. Arizona had the ninth best passing attack in the country last season and will be facing the defense that was sixth worst against the pass. This game will be far higher scoring than last year's Bowl game.

Play on: Over

Matt Fargo

Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox

You can officially stick a fork in the Indians as they are done. They now trail the Tigers by 9.5 games in the American League Central after getting swept to start the week and yesterday's loss was especially painful the way it happened. The White Sox have actually moved ahead of Cleveland in the division and while their season is done as well, they are playing better right now and head back home where they are 4-1 in their last five games. Chicago has won 13 of the last 17 meetings in this series. The White Sox send Gavin Floyd to the mound and he has been very good this season with the exception of a few bad starts. He allowed 10 runs against the Yankees and seven runs against the Twins and take those away and his ERA drops from 4.45 to 3.67. He is coming off a non-quality start last time out and he has followed up a non-quality start with a quality start in nine of 11 previous tries this season. Five of his last seven starts against Cleveland have been quality outings and the White Sox are 5-0 in his last five starts as a favorite. The Indians counter with David Huff and he has been all over the place. He has allowed one run or less in four of his six starts but he allowed 10 runs in 8.1 innings in those other two starts. Both of those starts came on the road and they happened to be his two most recent road starts. He has turned some heads but I do not think he has turned a corner as he went 2-11 with a 6.21 ERA last season and his career ERA is 5.44 in 44 starts with only 15 resulting in wins. Against the White Sox he has an 8.04 career ERA while the Indians are 2-12 in his last 14 road starts and 4-17 in his last 21 starts as an underdog. 3* Chicago White Sox

Frank Jordan

Saints vs. Packers
Play: Over 47

These two teams have great offenses and they also have good defenses, but I think it will be the offenses to take the lead early and the defenses to shut it down late. With that there will still be enough points for it to go over as it will be at least 28-20 at the final. Play the over

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Arizona has perhaps this years most under rated Pitcher going in Ian Kennedy, and he has been lights out all year. He has out pitched some of the best in the game all year long. He has a solid 2.93 home era and has a superb .086 era over his last 3 starts allowing just 2 runs in 21 innings. He has defeated the Padres all 4 times with a 2.19 era in the process. Tonight he takes on Luebke. In his last 3 starts he has been off with a 5.17 era and he is 0-2 with a 5.56 era vs Arizona. Both of these teams are heading in opposite directions. Looking at the numbers we see Arizona at 11-2 the last 13 while the Padres are 2-11. When taking on winning teams the Padres are 8-17 of late. Arizona is 28-11 vs winning teams of late and are averaging 5.6 runs per game the past week compared to San Diego averaging who is hitting just .221 over the last week. Finally we note Arizona is a fine 12-3 as a home favorite in this range. Line too high for unit rated status but for a free play were good.

Dave Cokin

Arizona vs Oklahoma State
Pick: Arizona

I'm down on Arizona this season and feel that Mike Stoops might be on very thin ice as far as job security goes. Oklahoma State figures to win tonight's hookup. But from a spread standpoint, the number is a tad inflated so I'm opting for the Wildcats plus the points.

EZWINNERS

New York Yankees -200

The Yankees rookie starting pitcher Ivan Nova just keeps rolling along. Nova leads all big league rookie pitchers with fifteen wins and has not lost a game since June 3rd. Nova is already 2-0 against Baltimore this season with an ERA of just 3.15 in those games and he has allowed more than four earned runs in a game just twice this season. The Orioles starting pitcher Alfredo Simon is coming off of his worst start of the season as he allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings of work against the Rays on Saturday. Simon is 0-2 against the Yankees in his career with an ERA of 4.80. I don't expect his luck to change in this game. The Yankees have won 22 out of the last 30 games between these two teams played in Baltimore and I expect that to continue. Play on New York.

Hollywood Sports

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

While Philadelphia owns a 42-26 record on the road this season -- but Milwaukee has won 23 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record of 60% or higher on the road. The Brewers have also won 13 of their last 16 opening games of a new series. And while they come off a 2-0 loss to St. Louis yesterday, Milwaukee has won 13 of their last 16 games when scoring two runs or less. They send out Chris Narveson who is 10-6 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP this season -- but he sees these numbers drop to a 3.76 ERA and 1.38 WHIP when at home. The Brewers have won 4 straight games with Narveson on the mound at home. Philly sends out Cole Hamels who was solid in his last start where he allowed only three runs in seven innings of work -- but the Phillies have lost 7 of their last 10 games when Hamels was looking to follow up a Quality Start. As an underdog in this spot, the Brewers offer a nice proposition. Take Milwaukee on the money line while listing both pitchers Cole Hamels and Chris Narveson.

Doug Upstone

Chicago White Sox

For all the good things Cleveland has done this season, they have slid to third place behind Chicago in the AL Central. Tonight they face the White Sox and it could get ugly. Play On favorites with a money line of -150 or more like the Pale Hose, an AL team hitting .265 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or lower), playing on Thursday. (39-6, 86.7% L13Y)