SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +126 over TORONTO
Ricky Romero has been staggering down the stretch. His five-game rolling strikeout rate average has declined from 9.1 K/9 in early August to 4.9 in early September and that’s right in line with his career form in September, as he’s always struggled in the final month. The Red Sox have scored 24 runs in the past two days versus the Blue Jays and Romero is 2-6 lifetime against Boston with an ERA of 8.08 and this year he’s 0-2 against them with an ERA of 11.42. Mentally, Romero is in trouble against Boston before this one starts. The Boston Herald noted that Miller has worked with Boston pitching coach Curt Young recently in shortening his stride, and this adjustment has seemed to help his command. In fact, Miller has walked two batters or less in two of three starts since the adjustment. He also threw two gems against both K.C. and Texas and the Jays have never faced him before other than three total AB’s. Miller has good stuff and could shine again in this spot. The Red Sox are too good and too hot at the plate to ignore taking back a tag against a pitcher they absolutely own that is laboring badly. Play: Boston +126 (Risking 2 units).
New Orleans +4½ over GREEN BAY
Nice way to start the season, especially in front of one of the league’s most passionate fan base after a championship season. Green Bay will be a strong contender this season but don’t be surprised if the Saints are right there every step of the way. New Orleans hasn’t forgotten their hiccup to the Seahawks in last year’s playoffs and what better way to amend that loss than to knock off the Super Bowl champs here. The Saints’ offense is still a force and moves were made to solidify some troublesome spots on defense. While we’re not in love with the game from a wagering standpoint, a New Orleans win wouldn’t surprise, a cover would surprise less and it’s rarely a good idea to be spotting a juggernaut points. Play: New Orleans +4½ (No bets).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 -130
The Brewers will come to the ballpark motivated and focused as they look to bounce back from consecutive defeats to send a message to the best team in the league. Milwaukee took 2 of 3 at Philadelphia earlier this season, and will be happy to return home tonight where it is 50-19 on the year. The Brew Crew have won 14 of their last 17 series openers and 11 of their last 13 against the NL East. The Beermakers are also in good hands with Narveson. They've won his last 6 starts and 13 of his last 16 starts. They've also won each of his last 4 home outings. The Phillies have lost 2 of Hamels' last 3 starts. We'll take the Brewers as they're showing value on the run line.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago White Sox -149
We'll side with the Chicago White Sox at home Thursday against the struggling Cleveland Indians. Cleveland has lost three straight and are really banged up right now with injuries. They send David Huff to the mound, who is 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in his last three outings. The White Sox counter with Gavin Floyd, who is 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in his last three starts. Huff sports an 8.05 ERA and 1.852 WHIP in three lifetime starts versus Chicago, while Floyd is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in three 2011 starts versus Cleveland. We are backing the better starter and the better team in this one tonight folks. Take the White Sox on the Money Line.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies -130
The Philadelphia Phillies are on a roll right now. Philly has won three straight and eight of their last 10 to get to 91-48 on the season. I'll side with this red hot team tonight as they have the edge on the mound over Milwaukee.
The Brewers have lost two straight and five of their last nine to come back down to reality. Milwaukee isn't a team that has played well over the final month in recent years, which has cost them a shot at playing in the postseason time and time again.
Chris Narveson sports a 4.26 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 25 starts this season for Milwaukee. He's up against Cole Hamels, who is 13-7 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 27 starts. Hamels is 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in nine career starts against Milwaukee, while Narveson is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in two career starts against Philly.
The Phillies are 28-9 against left-handed starters this season. Philly is 50-17 in their last 67 games as a favorite. The Brewers are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Roll with the Phillies Thursday.
Steve Janus
Philadelphia Phillies -130
The Phillies sit 10.5 games ahead of the Braves in the NL East, while the Brewers hold an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central. I look for both teams to come in wanting to send the other team a message on the chance that they meet up in the postseason. That also has me taking the Phillies with Cole Hamels on the mound against Chris Narveson.
Hamels is 13-7 with a 2.63 ERA on the season and has really pitched well on the road. In 13 road starts, Hamels is 6-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.981 WHIP. Hamels has also had some success against the Brewers, going 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA.
The Brewers are 0-2 in Narveson's two career starts against the Phillies. Narveson has a 5.40 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in those two starts. He does have a respectable 10-6 record in 2011, but his 4.29 ERA shows that he has been fortunate in a few of his starts.
Philadelphia is 14-3 in their last 17 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 21-7 in their last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter, 8-1 in Hamels' last 9 starts following a team loss in his previous start. BET THE PHILLIES!
Jack Clayton
Red Sox at Jays
Pick: Red Sox
Boston comes in ranked 2nd in runs scored, first in batting average, on base percentage and slugging. They can beat you with speed and power, plus they love to draw walks, which is a problem for Toronto starter Ricky Romero, who has allowed 11 walks in his last three starts (18 innings) for a 5.30 ERA. Play the Red Sox.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox +121
Toronto's Romero has struggled against Boston, going 2-6 lifetime (2-9 on the money line) with an ERA of 8.08. Boston's Miller has been superb on the road, going 5-1 (6-1 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.34. Bet Boston.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -149
Expect the White Sox to bounce back strong against a Cleveland club they have defeated 7 times in 10 meetings this season. Chicago has the right guy on the mound in Gavin Floyd. He's 3-0 on the money line in his last 3 and 7-3 in his last 10 starts against Cleveland. He's given up 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 7 starts against the Tribe. Cleveland's David Huff is 3-0 on the ML against Chicago but is extremely fortunate to be so as he's carrying an ERA of 8.05 in those outings. We'll take the Sox.
Teddy Covers
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
PICK: Over 9.5
I’ve been betting the Red Sox Over the total on a consistent basis in recent weeks, cashing far more often than not! Last night’s game was a classic example of why Boston is such a good Over team – Boston went Over the total by themselves and still lost, an easy ‘right side’ winner that was cashed by the top of the fourth inning. There’s absolutely no reason to expect a dramatically different result tonight.
Toronto’s Ricky Romero has spent his entire career getting lit up by the Red Sox. In eleven previous starts against Boston, Romero has an 8.08 ERA, a 2.18 WHIP while allowing the Red Sox lineup to hit .357 against him. Those aren’t exactly confidence inspiring numbers. Romero faced Boston twice this year, failing to finish the fifth inning either time: 17 hits and eleven runs allowed in just 8.2 innings of work.
Toronto’s lineup broke out of their funk with an eleven run outburst last night. The Blue Jays have been Over machines: 10-2 to the Over in their last dozen games; 9-2 to the Over in their last eleven meetings with Boston on this field. Toronto hits lefties .21 points higher than righties for the year, a bad matchup for inconsistent Boston starter Andrew Miller, who failed to get out of the second inning in his last trip to the hill. Expect fireworks again tonight! Take the Over.
Matt Rivers
Oklahoma State -13.5
Reasoning: It’s a lot of lumber to be laying but I really don’t see a scenario where this thing can end all that well for the visitors from Arizona. Yes Nick Foles and Juron Criner are the real deal and a duo who can hook up a ton and look awesome but this is such a random spot for them in Stillwater that it just will not be close to enough in the end.
These teams played last season in the Alamo Bowl game and it wasn’t even close. The Cowboys came out from the get go and pretty much outclassed the Wildcats, who were only a four or so point dog in that thing. Even the Cowboy defense showed us a thing or two on that pretty easy win.
Mike Gundy is a man and over 40 now but he is a solid coach with a pair of superstars himself. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon may be the most dangerous quarterback wide receiver combination in the entire nation and today at home the crowd is going to be beyond raucous and just too much for the visitors from the soft Pac-12.
The Wildcats should put some points on the board and could hang for a little bit. But they have a schedule this season that is second to none and it all starts right here and now in an incredibly difficult place to play. Mike Stoops’ team has top 25 potential but should only win about six games because of the unbelievable competition they play and where they play them.
We are going to see the 9th ranked team in the nation feed off of their drunk and rowdy crowd and make the stadium into a frenzy and a buzz saw in the end.
Points will be put on the board and after 60 minutes the Cowboys are once again going to be too potent.
Real Animal
Arizona +13.5
Sure Arizona does have a rebuilt offensive line and their best receiver, Juron Criner, is expected to miss with illness. But Oklahoma State is not exactly a defensive stalwart allowing 34 points to Louisiana-Lafayette last week. This is a rematch of last year's Alamo Bowl won by the Cowboys 36-10. But in that game the Wildcats actually had more yards at 370-312. However Arizona was -4 in turnovers. Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeded completed 24-of-39 passes for 388 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw three interceptions against Louisiana last Saturday. Meanwhile AZ QB Nick Foles completed 81 percent of his passes last week for 412 yards and five touchdowns in a blowout of Northern Arizona, albeit at home. In the Alamo Bowl last year, Arizona had six first-half trips into Oklahoma State territory and scored a total of seven points. I do not trust a fraudulent defense laying double digits. Take Arizona as a 2* opinion +13 1/2. FYI: All six primetime TV college football games have gone 'OVER' the total in the early stages of college football. They were UNLV/Wisconsin, TCU/Baylor, Oregon/LSU, Boise State/Georgia, SMU/Texas A&M, and Maryland/Miami-of-Florida.