Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 9,2010

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Auburn vs. Mississippi St
Play: Over 54
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Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville will provide the setting for ESPN’s Thursday night showcase as the Auburn Tigers pay a visit to the Mississippi St Bulldogs in an early SEC showdown. The last time these two met in Starkville, points were at a premium as the Tigers won a nail-biter, 3-2. This time however, look for things to be different as both offenses are poised for big nights.
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The Tigers have won eight of the last nine in the series, including a 49-24 victory last season at Jordan-Hare. Junior college transfer Cam Newton leads an offense that returns seven starters and didn’t disappoint in a 52-26 win over Arkansas St. in the opener. Gus Malzahn’s offense broke records in year one and it’s reportedly faster this season. They’ll test a Miss St. defense that returns seven starters to a defense that allowed 5.7 ypp last season.
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Dan Mullen’s offense showed improvement in a 49-7 opening win over, albeit, the Memphis Tigers. Even still, the Bulldogs offense which returns seven starters led by quarterback Chris Relf, should be able to move the ball against a Tigers defense that returns eight starters from a year ago, but failed to show any improvement in the opener against the Red Wolves.
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Both offenses should present serious problems for the opposing defenses Thursday night. Auburn's defense was liability last season and it doesn’t look as if much has changed. Points should be a plenty as both teams light up the scoreboard and send this one sailing over expectations. Play OVER the total (-) for 1 unit.

Jim Feist
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San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants
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It's a great race in the NL West as we come down the home stretch, with the Padres and Giants battling it out. The Giants go with a terrific young arm in Matt Cain, with a 3.18 ERA. He has realy cut down his walks this season, a huge part of his improvement. The Giants are 8-2 his last 10 starts. Jon Garland is an aging arm and the team is 0-2 his last two starts, giving up 6 runs in 11 innings. Back the young ace in this one. Play the Giants.

EZWINNERS
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Los Angeles Dodgers -130
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The Dodger's starting pitcher Ted Lilly has only had one bad start since coming to LA in a trade with the Cubs and is 5-1 with a 3.17 ERA in those games. Lilly has dominated the Astros this season and in his career. Lilly has a 0.69 ERA in two starts against Houston this season with 14 strikeouts in 13 innings pitched and he is 7-1 lifetime with an ERA of 2.19 against Houston. Bud Norris gets the start for the Astros and he has been in a funk. After a very good stretch of starts, Norris is 0-1 in his last three starts and his ERA is 6.06 in those games. Norris lasted just 4 2/3 innings on Saturday, his shortest outing since July 17, as he allowed five earned runs on eight hits. This is the most innings Norris has ever pitched and he appears to be hitting the wall. The Dodgers have won four straight meetings between these two teams and I look for their success to continue in this game. Play on Los Angeles.

Luke Anthony
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San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants
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Matt Cain vs Jon Garland tonight is going to be a pitchers duel in San Diego. It will come down to what bats are going to come through and get the big hit. I have way more trust in the Giants bats who are hot and playing better baseball over the Padres who are still coming off 10 strait losses this week! Look for Cain to shut down this weak Padres offense and the Giants to get just enough to win this game on the road.

Karl Garrett

Another FREE play winner on Wednesday as the Houston Astros come through to make it 4 straight comp play winners! And how about my 7-1-1 run on Thursday night's in college football dating back to last season?

Your free play for Thursday night is to take the Vikings-Saints game to make its way over the posted total.

G-Man just doesn't see the defenses imposing their will on these high-powered offenses.

Last year in the NFC Championship game, the teams sailed over the posted total, and New Orleans is on a 17-7 over run their last 24 home games.

Brett Favre hasn't had a whole lot of rep time, but you can never count out his competitive spirit when it comes to marquee games like this, and of course with Favre's knack for throwing the big pick, we could see some short fields set up with a turnover or two.

Drew Brees looked like he was in mid-season form in the preseason, and the G-Man has never questioned his ability to engineer scoring drives with the offense he has on his side.

America is expecting fireworks this opening night, and the Vikings and Saints will not disappoint.

Play the over in this one.

5♦ OVER

Joel Tyson

NFL season gets underway in the Big Easy this Thursday night, and I expect things to be a little "easy" for the Saints in this one.

Minnesota has some issues that they need to work through, mainly Brett Favre reporting late to camp this season. Favre will have to adjust to life without his go-to guy Sidney Rice for the better part of the first half of the season, and then there is the fact that Favre isn't getting any younger.

The Vikings would like nothing better than to exact some revenge, but I just cannot go against New Orleans in this home opener even if the line is a bit on the inflated side.

Drew Brees looked to be in peak form this preseason, and the Saints have shored up both sides of their line, and have a little more depth at the wide receiver postion too.

The Saints have opened the season at home the last 2 years, and both games resulted in wins and covers, plus the defending Super Bowl winners are a perfect 10-0 straight up, and 7-3 against the spread in Week One of the new season.

Hard to argue those numbers, especially with so many question marks surrounding Favre and his receiving corps.

Lay the wood.

2♦ NEW ORLEANS

Chuck O'Brien

Now on to my today’s complimentary winner, as I’ll take Auburn as a slight road favorite at Mississippi State.

I recognize that the Tigers have had their problems covering pointspreads on the road (1-8 ATS last nine on the highway). But they haven’t had much trouble beating this particular SEC rival. A year ago, Auburn hammered Mississippi State 49-24 and cashed as a 15-point home favorite, moving to 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings and 6-2 ATS in the last eight. Take away a bizarre 3-2 victory in their last trip to Starkville, and the Tigers’ last six wins over the Bulldogs have been by scores of 42-14, 45-13, 43-14, 28-0, 34-0 and 49-24.

Mississippi State, which has had just one winning season since 2001, figures to be much improved this year under second-year coach Dan Mullen (who went 5-7 last year). And the Bulldogs definitely sprinted out of the gate strong last week, pounding Memphis 49-7 as a 21½-point home favorite. That said, there’s still a significant gap in talent between these two programs, and many experts have Auburn (ranked No. 21 this week) as the surprise team in the SEC, thanks in large part to 6-foot-6 dual-threat QB Cam Newton, who accounted for 257 total yards and five TDs (three passing, two rushing) in last week’s 52-26 rout of Arkansas State.

It’s never easy to go on the road and win these prime-time, nationally televised conference games, but if Auburn wants to be thought of as an elite SEC squad this year, this is a game it must have. And given this pointspread, a victory essentially means a spread-cover.

3♦ AUBURN

Bobby Maxwell

On to today's freebie, for years, Auburn has been criticized for a severe lack of offense. That wasn’t a problem in Saturday’s opener against Arkansas State and that momentum will carry over to the SEC opener tonight in Starkville, Miss. against Mississippi State. Lay the small chalk and go with the Tigers.

Second-year Auburn coach Gene Chizik has a superstar in QB Cameron Newton who was named the SEC offensive player of the week after the Tigers’ 52-26 win over Arkansas State on Saturday. Newton threw for 186 yards and three TDs and added a whopping 171 yards rushing and two more TDs. That’s an impressive debut for the kid who started at Florida, then went o Blinn College in 2009 and won the junior college national title.

Auburn went just 3-5 in SEC action last year and their easiest SEC win can against these Bulldogs when they scored a 49-24 home win and cashed as 15-point favorites. The Tigers have cashed in six of the last eight meetings but failed to cash in the last meeting in Starkville, winning the incredible 3-2 game as 10-point favorites.

Mississippi State is coming off back-to-back losing seasons, but the Bulldogs torched Memphis on Saturday, winning 49-7 at home and cashing as 21 ½-point favorites. They threw the ball for 373 yards and five TDs, with freshman Tyler Russell doing most of the damage with 13-of-16 passing for 256 yards and four TDs.

Auburn’s pass defense needs to re-evaluate after getting beat for 323 passing yards against Arkansas State on Saturday.

The Tigers are on ATS surges of 6-2 in the last eight against the Bulldogs, having been favored in each of the last six. Mississippi State is on ATS slides of 0-5 on Thursday, and 2-5 after a straight-up win.

I like the Tigers, especially with Newton running things in this matchup. Play Auburn.

4♦ AUBURN

Chris Jordan

I'm on a 17-5 run with MLB free plays, and today I'm coming with the Rockies over the Reds in a matinee contest.

I told you about the Rockies twice this week already, and I'll jump back on them today, as they look to win their season-best seventh straight and 10th in a row at home in this matchup.

After six straight wins and a 13-4 record since Aug. 21, Colorado is just 2 1/2 games behind the Giants, who trail the division-leading Padres by two.

The Rockies, who have been a September juggernaut two of the past three seasons, have won 30 of 40 at Coors Field.

They're averaging 6.2 runs and batting .305 during their current six-game winning streak.

Colorado is 28-6 versus the Reds in Denver and has won 20 of the last 25 meetings with them.

All Rockies at this cheap price.

2♦ COLORADO

Stephen Nover

I am on a 65-47-2 run with my baseball free selections. I like the Dodgers to beat the Astros for my Thursday free play.

The Astros return home following a successful 4-2 road trip. The Astros have been playing well, but I see them having a letdown returning home and facing tough left-hander Ted Lilly.

Lilly has turned in quality starts during nine of his last 10 outings. He's held opponents to three earned runs or less all but once during these last 10 starts. Lilly has a 132-to-37 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Houston starter Bud Norris can't match that or Lilly. Norris is 6-8 with a 5.34 ERA.

Norris has had a 100 plus pitch count during his last six starts. Prior to that, he never had three straight 100-plus pitch count games. The fatigue is hitting him. Norris has allowed 10 earned runs on 16 hits and six walks and two homers during his past two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings.

1♦ DODGERS

BRETT ATKINS

Made it back-to-back free winners on Wednesday as the Rockies delivered a beatdown to the Reds in Colorado. Tonight I'm delivering again on the diamond with a comp winner on the Padres over the Giants in San Diego. Over on my site today, it's all about the gridiron as I'm dishing out a huge 20 Dime College FB Winner and a 5 Dime NFL play on the exciting opening game. .

On to my free winner - This is a huge series in the N.L. West as the Padres and Giants open a four-game set with San Francisco trailing the Padres by two games in the standings.

San Diego has won three in a row overall after that long 10-game losing streak brought the Giants and Rockies right back into the divisional race. Jon Garland goes for the Padres in this one and his home ERA is a stellar 2.68. In four career starts against the Giants, Garland’s teams have come out on top all four times.

Matt Cain is on the hill for the Giants and he has had a lot of trouble against San Diego, losing all three outings against the Padres this season. With Cain on the hill, the Giants are 5-23 when he’s on the road against a winning team, 2-6 on the road overall and 1-5 when he’s a road underdog.

The Padres have won four of the last five against San Francisco at Petco Park in San Diego and they have taken nine of 11 from the Giants overall this season.

I like the fire Garland has shown lately, more willing to step up and lead this young Padres’ squad. I’ll back San Diego with Garland on the hill.

2♦ SAN DIEGO

NELLY'S GREENSHEET

Auburn (-3) MISSISSIPPI STATE
This is a huge early season SEC game and even though Auburn has won eight of the last nine meetings, these teams are much closer than most people probably perceive. Auburn gained some buzz last season with a 49- 24 win over the Bulldogs at home to move to 2-0 in Coach Chizik’s first season but Mississippi State ended up being very competitive the rest of the way. Coach Mullen is in his second year with the MSU program as well and after going 5-7 and giving scares to several national powerhouses the Bulldogs are looking to climb into the bowl picture this season. The Bulldogs allowed 589 yards against Auburn last season but the rush defense clamped down the rest of the season and this will be a key game to earn some respect heading into a brutal scheduling stretch in the SEC. Last week Mississippi State delivered a rout over rival Memphis with an efficient passing game and a very tough run defense. Auburn also put up big numbers to win last week but it was just a 12-point game in the third quarter and the defense allowed 366 yards. The Bulldogs have been dangerous home underdogs in and should be the better defensive team. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 4

TEMPLE (-8) Central Michigan
After narrowly redeeming the 2009 loss to FCS Villanova last week Temple will look to get the MAC title they nearly had last season starting off the conference season with the 2009 MAC champions. These teams did not play last season in the regular season and Temple’s loss to Ohio to close the year cost the Owls the championship match-up. Temple is the heavy favorite in the MAC this season with nearly the entire offense back and a favorable scheduling draw. In 2008 Central Michigan won by ten at home in the last meeting between these teams but there are big changes for the Chippewas this season. Central Michigan was very sharp on defense last week but Temple looks like the MAC’s best team. TEMPLE BY 10

NEW ORLEANS (-5) Minnesota (48)
NBC certainly could not have picked a more alluring TV match-up as this NFC championship rematch will have plenty of storylines and drama to discuss before the game even starts. The Vikings of course dominated the yardage in last year’s game with the Super Bowl trip on the line with a nearly 2:1 yardage advantage but five turnovers and several misplays ended the season and gave the Saints the path to their first championship. New Orleans was able to pressure QB Brett Favre last season and that should be the plan again but revenge is very possible. The difference between Minnesota and New Orleans should not be significant. VIKINGS BY 3

Tom Freese

Rangers at Blue Jays
Prediction: Over

Texas starter Colby Lewis has allowed 16 runs in his last 2 starts. The Rangers are 10-2-1 OVER in game 4 of a series. Texas is 4-1 OVER their last 5 games overall. The Rangers are 4-1 OVER their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto starter Shaun Hill is making his firts start this year. The Blue Jays are 7-1 OVER in game 4 of series and they are 6-0 OVER their last 6 games vs. righty starters. Toronto is 6-1-2 OVER when the total is 9.0 to 10.5. The Blue Jays are 6-2-1 OVER their last 9 home games.

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St Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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St Louis is getting down to must win games as they now sit 6 games behind Cincinnati in the NL Central division race. They send a very good Adam Wainwright to the mound tonight against the Braves. Atlanta comes in losers of 5 of their last 7 games overall. St Louis bullpen has a 3.64 ERA overall this year. Adam Wainwright is 17-10 with a 2.34 ERA overall this year and has a 3.15 ERA on the road this year. Lack of run support has hurt Wainwright's record this season. St Louis has won all 4 meetings this year with the Braves. Wainwright is 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA overall vs Atlanta since 1997. Jair Jurrjens is 1-3 overall vs St Louis since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!