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Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 9,2010

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Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Atlanta Braves +104
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With a chance to pull even with idle Philly, look for the Braves to come through at home tonight against the slumping Cards. While Wainwright has never lost to Atlanta, it appears the St. Louis ace is running out of gas. He has lost his last 4 starts, with 3 of those losses coming to Milwaukee, Washington and Pittsburgh. The Braves are in good hands with Jurrjens on the mound tonight. The Atlanta righty is a perfect 6-0 (8-0 on the money line) with an ERA of only 2.15 at home this season. He should find success against a St. Louis club that has scored two or fewer runs in seven of its last 10 games. I'll back the best home club in baseball at a great price tonight.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 10:02 am
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SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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COLORADO –1½ +1.56 over Cincinnati
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The Rockies are red hot with six wins in a row and 12 wins in its last 16. The Rocks have also shredded the Reds in the first three games of this four-game set and have now outscored them 23-10. The Rocks also have a big edge on the hill with Jason Hammel over Travis Wood. Wood has been living a charmed life. He has very good numbers that include a BAA of .212 an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP if 1.09. However, Wood has also faced some weak hitting line-ups recently that include the Cards, the Cubbies twice and the Pirates. What’s most concerning about Woods is that he’s an elite fly-ball pitcher with a 48%/31% FB/GB ratio. He has a 0.7 HR/9 rate and with such a high fly-ball rate that number is simply unsustainable. Wood also has an xERA of 5.24 over his last five starts and there’s a strong chance his luck will run out against this hot-hitting host. By contrast, Jason Hammel has a GB rate of 46% and over his last five starts that rate is exactly the same at 46%. He induces groundballs and he induces them often. That alone gives him a big edge and when you throw in the current state of mind of these two combatants, one has to give the Rockies a big edge right across the board. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
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San Francisco +1.05 over SAN DIEGO
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John Garland favored over Matt Cain? Are you kidding? Win or lose here, you can rest assured you’re going with the best of it. Garland has posted impressive 31-day surface stats (2.15 ERA) but xERA over that stretch of 4.44 tells us, as it always does, that he’s a fluke. Garland keeps walking guys, he keeps falling behind in counts and aside from experience, he does not offer up much more. Garland is fourth in the NL in walks issued with 77. Meanwhile, Matt Cain is the straight goods and he’s hot. Cain has walked one batter in six of his last seven games and in the other game he walked two. Unlike Garland, he throws strikes and is constantly ahead in the count. Cain has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 games. In addition, the Giants offense is stronger than the Padres and while the Padres are so tough at home, they have zero advantage in this contest and should not be favored. Play: San Francisco +1.05 (Risking 2 units).

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 10:04 am
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RANDALL THE HANDLEFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota +5½ over NEW ORLEANS
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It would be a small consolation for the Vikings to avenge last year’s 31-28 NFC Conference championship loss to these Saints but it would certainly make an early statement in Minnesota's quest for this year’s title. While the Vikes are likely to slip a bit from last year's 12-4 mark, oodles of talent remain and certainly keeps them in the mix amongst conference elites. Of course, the Superdome will be rocking as the home crowd welcomes their champions but spotting these points against a team that out-yarded New Orleans by a 475-257 count in aforementioned contest cannot be recommended. Expect another close one and a possible Super-Bowl hangover. Play: Minnesota +5½ (no bets).

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 10:04 am
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Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
Pick : Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros continue to battle as the season goes along. They have been a thorn in many team's sides, and the Dodgers get a taste of it in Game 1 tonight. Houston is 13-4 in their last 17 games overall, which includes a 4-game sweep of the Phillies and a 3-game sweep of St. Louis. They have been especially good when playing against a team in postseason contention.
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The Dodgers are still in contention, but they are basically playing their way out of it by going 0-5 in their last 5 games overall and 2-9 in their last 11 games. Even Ted Lilly is having a hard time getting motivated to pitch for L.A., going 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Astros are a very profitable 23-14 against the money line against left-handed starters this season. Lilly is 0-8 against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Astros Thursday.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 12:04 pm
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Info PlaysFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3* on Atlanta Braves +102
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Reasons the Braves win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - with a winning record on the season, in September games. This is a 79-38 ML System hitting 67.5% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 7-1 this season. Bet Atlanta at home.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 12:04 pm
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Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Houston Astros +1.5 -135
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The Dodgers lost interest in this season, as evidence by their 5-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Houston is playing some of its best baseball of the season, winning 7 of its last 9 games. While Lilly is the better starter in this matchup, the Dodgers have lost each of his last 2 starts and he has given up 9 runs in just 11 innings in those 2 games. Plus, I have no problem going against LA on the road when you consider that it is just 9-25 in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. You also have to like the fact that the Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 7-1 in Norris' last 8 starts. I'll take the Astros catching 1.5 runs at a solid price tonight.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 12:05 pm
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Doug UpstoneFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Temple Owls
Play: Temple Owls -7
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No other way to look at this, it is must win for Temple. The public perception is the Owls have arrived and believed to be the best squad in the MAC. A loss to Central Michigan isn’t a crushing defeat, but with Connecticut and Penn State on deck, the preseason momentum would come to serious halt with a loss.
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Central Michigan has yet another coach, but for the redshirt juniors and seniors on the Chippewas, they have only known success and will do everything in their power to prove to everyone they haven’t fallen nearly as far as what most experts believe.
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With Temple coach Al Golden’s club 9-2 ATS after a home triumph, expect the Owls to give a hoot and cover the spread.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 12:06 pm
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Frank Jordan
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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St. Louis is in desperate need of a win as they have lost 7 of 10 and are very close to being completely out of any race for the playoffs. They do have their ace on the mound in Adam Wainwright, but of his 17 wins only 6 are on the road and of his 10 losses 8 are on the road. In his only start against Atlanta this year he did go 6 innings allowing three runs and picked up a win. Jiar Jurrjens is going for Atlanta which will make tougher for the St. Louis offense to score runs which has been rather tough for them of late. Jurrjens is 7-4 on the year, but at home he is 6-0 with an era of 2.15. Look for Jurrjens to be too tough and Wainwrights struggles at home to continue. Play Atlanta

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 12:06 pm
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Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals at Braves
Play: Cardinals
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A big showdown in St. Louis during a pennant race. Adam Wainwright has been an ace for the Cardinals, with a 17-10 record and a 2.34 ERA. Atlanta is without star slugger Chipper Jones and starter Jair Jurrjens has an ERA of 5.00 his last three starts, walking 11 in 18 innings. Have to back the visitors and their ace.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 12:09 pm
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John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
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5* graded play on the Padres as they host the Giants in ahuge game with big time playoff implications. Looks like one of theses teams is going to be on the outside looking in to the playoffs. SD has reestablished themselves with three straight wins after a 10 game losing streak. They lead the Giants by two games and the Giants trail the Braves by two games. It is possible for both teams to make the playoffs, but either the Phillies or Braves would have to fall apart down the stretch. With the Braves and Phillies all but tied for the NL East lead and the best record in the NL it is unlikely that wither team is going to fall apart. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Padres will the game an increase their lead over the Giants to three games. Cain gets the nod for the Giants and he is just 3-7 in 14 road starts posting a 3.69 ERA and a 1.295 WHIP. Padres starter Garland has not allowed more than three earned runs in eight straight starts. He is 7-4 in 15 home starts posting a 2.58 ERA and a 1.301 WHIP. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-15 making 22.4 units since 2004 for 71.2% winners. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games and with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. Take the Padres.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 2:07 pm
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Lenny Del Genio
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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
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This is a critical weekend series in the NL West with the Padres currently holding a tenuous two game lead over the Giants. Following a disastrous 10-game losing streak, the Padres rebounded to sweep another division rival, the Dodgers, to improve themselves to 31-28 in division play. San Diego has dominated head-to-head play with San Francisco in 2010, taking nine of 11 meetings, including four of five here at Petco Park. Since the start of the 2009 season, San Fran has lost 11 of 14 games in this park. That's bad news for their postseason hopes as they play seven of their final 22 games at Petco. Tonight's starter Matt Cain in particular has struggled here as the team has lost 13 of his previous 16 starts in San Diego. This season, Cain is 0-2 vs. the Padres (three starts) with a 4.34 ERA. Take San Diego.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 2:08 pm
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VEGAS EXPERTS
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Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
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These two teams combined to go Over the total when they met last January in the NFC Title game - the ninth time in 11 meetings a Vikings vs. Saints game has cashed for Over bettors. But check this out: 58% of all Week One contests since the 2000 season have gone Under the total. Additionally, if both teams had winning records the previous year, the number jumps to 72%! This number is too high for this early in the year as we expect the Vikings offense to struggle with Favre still getting acclimated.
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Play on: Under

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 2:10 pm
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Black WidowFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1* on St. Louis Cardinals -108
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Rarely will you get Adam Wainwright at this generous of a price. We'll take advantage and back the NL Cy Young candidate as he looks to get his team back in the win column with a victory over the Atlanta Braves, a team they are trailing in the Wild Card race. St. Louis knows they need to sweep this series if they want any chance of making the postseason. Wainwright is 17-10 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.033 WHIP this year with 184 strikeouts in 200.1 innings. Wainwright is 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 5 career starts against Atlanta, not once losing to the Braves. Enough said. Take the Cardinals on the Money Line.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 2:11 pm
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Dan BebeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SDP (-111) vs SFG
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All season long, the Giants have struggled with the Padres. For whatever reason, San Diego has been able to play some of the ugliest games on the planet, and eek out wins against the Giants over and over again. Yes, San Francisco kept from getting skunked by grabbing a couple wins against San Diego in the second half, but over the season, the Padres have absolutely had San Francisco's number.
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San Diego took 2 of 3 in the Bay Area in mid-August. They took 4 of 5 games against the Giants in May. They swept a 3-game set from the Giants in April. I'd say 9-2 against a team is a pretty strong edge. The bottom line is this: the Padres and Giants are pretty similar. Two teams built on pitching. The difference is that the Padres just have a knack for winning close games, late. The Giants are coming off a loss in Arizona, shut down by Dan Hudson, and losing ground on the Padres for the first time in 2 weeks in the NL West. The Padres come off a sweep of the visiting Dodgers, so they're turning it around after the 10-game losing skid.
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San Diego is a team gaining confidence again, and it sure is easy to win when you're having fun out there.
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This series is going to be very hotly contested, but for me, it comes down to the Padres' ability to squeak out wins against opposing aces. Jon Garland has been very good against the Giants in his career (3-0, 2.15); Matt Cain and Garland have both been tremendous since the All Star Break. But Cain, despite a 3.12 lifetime ERA against the Padres, is just 4-8, and can't seem to get past them. He's faced them 3 times this year, and is 0-2 despite pitching pretty well, and again, it just comes down to the fact that the Padres find ways to win.

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 2:12 pm
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O.C. Dooley

Auburn -1

One has to wonder why Auburn has been cast as a road favorite considering that they have lost on the scoreboard in 7 of the past 8 chances on the highway. Prior to the negative eight-game stretch Auburn managed to win a game at Mississippi State but it was only by a ONE point margin in what was one of the strangest final scores (3-2) that you will ever find in college football. To make matters even worse the Tigers are on a horrendous 1-8 ATS slide on the highway and last week in their home opener they failed to cover the spread as a prohibitive 31’ point favorite as the defense surrendered a hefty 26 points against an inferior opponent. One of the main reasons why Auburn is still being asked to lay a few points tonight has to do with a very impressive debut of new quarterback Cameron Newton who is a former “five star recruit” that actually started his collegiate career at Florida before transferring to the junior college level. Newton actually passed on a chance to play with Mississippi State which is going to make him public enemy #1 this evening, but he is none the less coming off a stunning Auburn debut (186 yards passing, 3 touchdowns) which included 171 RUSH yards and a pair of scores. What excites me most about Auburn is that Gene Chizik is the only headmaster in the entire Southeast Conference that did NOT lose any of his assistant coaches, which means there is continuity with the program. Since tonight’s game is priced at near a “pick em” it is worth mentioning that Auburn’s Wes Byrum is arguably one of the best kickers in the SEC Conference and has the ability to come through in clutch situations. To give you an idea about the state of Mississippi State’s offense that starting quarterback at Houston a year ago threw more touchdown passes (44) than Miss State has managed in the past 4 years combined. I am aware that Mississippi State won a 49-7 opening week romp over Memphis, but it took multiple quarterbacks to get the job done. It was exactly one year ago in game #2 that Auburn took care of Mississippi State by a comfortable 49-24 count

 
Posted : September 9, 2010 4:36 pm
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