Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 20

Sam Martin

Florida International at Marshall
Prediction: Marshall

Not a strong enough matchup for us to release a premium selection on this game, but we do feel there is good line value on the underdog here. Marshall has two fewer victories than Florida International, but play in a much better conference and have played a superior non-conference schedule (including West Virginia and Virginia Tech). Marshall finished the season wining five of their last eight - with all of their losses coming against superior competition which saw the Herd line up as no less than a 19-point underdog. That's not the case here, and while Marshall has struggled to stop the run against better teams, they should be just fine tonight. Marshall should win this game outright, and if not for the Herd's lack of a consistent passing game (although they have done much better of late), we would have backed Marshall as a premium selection in this contest.

David Chan

Blackhawks @ Penguins
PICK: Under 5½

The 21-8-4 Chicago Blackhawks swoop into Pittsburgh to take on the 18-11-4 Penguins.

Chicago is coming off a 4-2 win over the Flames on Sunday.

The victory marked coach Joel Quenneville's 600th, and the Hawks fifth straight win.

“We did some good things for the most part,” Quenneville said. “Our puck possession game has gotten better as we’ve gone along.

“I don’t think we should be satisfied … but we’ve gotten production from a lot of places.”

Goaltender Ray Emery is on fire, 9-1-2 overall.

The Pens are coming off an 8-3 win over Buffalo on Saturday.

Evgeni Malkin had a hat-trick, and five points overall:

“It was a very exciting night for us,” said Malkin. “I very (much) enjoyed playing. I don’t know, it was a lucky day for the whole team.”

It was an impressive offensive performance, but take note that Buffalo entered the game without seven players due to injury.

And note that the 'Hawks catch a break here as captain Sidney Crosby was put on the injured list on Saturday.

A couple of the most skilled offensive teams in the league; but also a couple of the hottest goaltenders going head to head.

I expect a hard-fought, "chippy" affair, where every puck is contested; it sets up perfectly as a low-scoring contest!

Jim Feist

Butler vs Gonzaga
Pick: Under

A pair of strong defensive teams meet in this non-conference game, and Butler is a club that loves to slow the pace down. They take on a Gonzaga team that can also play strong defense, and the Zags are 5-1-1 under the total in their last 7 non-conference games, plus the under is 18-7-2 in their last 27 home games. Look for more defense than oddsmakers expect; Play Butler/Gonzaga under the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

Florida International –4 over Marshall

Interesting matchup in that FIU arrives here with an 8-4 record while Marshall barely qualified for post-season with a 6-6 mark. The Golden Panthers are just a four-point choice because Marshall plays in a tougher division and they had a stiffer schedule. The Thundering Herd played three ranked teams this season while FIU played none. However, Marshall was blown out in all three by a combined score of 127-51. They also lost 59-17 to Tulsa. In games against common opponents, Louisville and Central Florida, the Panthers won them both while Marshall split the games, losing to UCF 16-6. It’s credible if they played tough games and stayed even remotely close but Marshall did not. Thundering Herd QB Rakeem Cato is erratic in terms of accuracy and he was benched earlier in the season before an injury to replacement A.J. Graham forced him back into the lineup. Cato is prone to mistakes and with 24 days off, expect him to be even more reckless. Marshall’s O-line won’t help either, having allowing 26 sacks and that suits a potent FIU pass rush just fine. In terms of defense, the Thundering Herd is a weak unit that has trouble tackling. When you throw in home field (the game is in St. Petersburg, Florida) and the electric playmaking skills of the best player on the field in RB/kick returner T.Y. Hilton, it becomes a cheap price to spot with the superior club. Play: Florida International –4 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

FIU -4 Over Marshall: I realize that Marshall played the 5th toughest schedule in the nation, while FIU played one of the easiest, but lets look at what this Marshall team did down the stretch. The Herd did go 4-2 in their last 6 games and their 4 wins were all vs losing teams, but they did struggle in the wins as they needed OT to beat a bad East Carolina team, they won by just 1 point over a 2-10 Memphis team and they won by just 4 over a 4-8 rice squad. They really only played 1 good game in their last 6 games and that was a 59-14 destruction over 3-9 UAB team, while they lost by a combined 77 points to Tulsa and Houston. This is a team with many problems on defense as they are 87th overall (418 ypg) and 84th in points allowed 30.2 ppg, plus they are 100th vs the pass (262.8 ppg). The Offense for the Herd has not been that impressive as they have put up just 335 ypg (101st) and 22 ppg (98th). The offense is led by Cato, who started eight games this season and had a 125.23 pass efficiency rating while throwing 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Cato split time as the Thundering Herd's signal caller with A.J. Graham before the sophomore scrambler went down with a season ending injury. If Cato goes down with injury, wide receiver Jermaine Kelson is the emergency backup. FIU has a very talented, athletic, and aggressive defense. The Panthers are ranked 16th in the nation in scoring defense with just 19.4 points allowed per game. FIU was ranked in the top three in every defensive category in its conference, and led the Sun Belt in sacks per game with 3.6 per contest. Winston Fraser is the leader of the defense with 107 total tackles.On offense FIU has a star in T.Y. Hilton. The senior wideout caught 64 passes for 950 yards this year despite dealing with injuries along the way. Hilton was the favorite target of senior quarterback Wesley Carroll throughout the year. Carroll passed for 2,224 yards and 14 touchdowns with only four interceptions. Carroll has not thrown an interception in three games, and has had the luxury of one of the better pass-blocking units in the nation, as FIU is only allowing 1.1 sacks per game. They also have RB Rhodes, who racked up 1,121 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground this year. If his ankle proves to be an issue, Darriet Perry is a serviceable backup. Despite playing the much easier schedule I still feel that FIU is the play. They have the better offense, and a huge edge on defense, plus they get a big nod on special teams with TY Hilton and they should with this one rather easily. KEY TREND--- Marshall is 4-16 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers since 1992.

Scott Spreitzer

Idaho at Wright State
Play: Idaho

Not sure why Wright State continues to garner the respect they have been receiving, relatively speaking. The Raiders lost 4 starters from last season's 19-14 squad and it's a true rebuilding season for Billy Donlon in his second year as coach. Donlon is attempting to upgrade the talent at this program, but it's going to take some time. Wright State (4-8 SU; 3-6 ATS) have dropped 4 of their last 5 home games and a couple of those haven't been close.

The Raiders simply have no scoring. Not a single player averages at least 10 ppg and leading scorer Julius Mays (9.7 ppg) may not play on Tuesday due to an injury. Whether he plays or not, a 9.7 ppg scorer just doesn't mean that much to me...it's still a play on the road team. Wright is averaging just 55 ppg on just 37.8% shooting (31.7% treys). The Raiders aren't much better on defense. They rank 277th in FG percentage allowed and 286th defending the 3-pointer. Their 63 ppg allowed has little to do with their defensive skills. And they don't rebound well, averaging under 30 rpg (Idaho is on a 9-2 ATS run against teams who avg less than 33 rpg). I suspect the Raiders will struggle again in this one.

Idaho finished tied for 3rd in the WAC last season and they're shooting "lights out" so far this season. The Vandals rank 10th in the nation, connecting on 50.4% of their shots and they're 6th from behind the arc, making 43% of their attempts. And while WSU hasn't, Idaho has earned their 64.4 ppg allowed. They have held their opponents to 38.2% shooting (38th in CBB). And in case that's not enough, Idaho owns a +7.4 rebounding margin per game.

Every area where Wright State struggles, the underrated Vandals excel. Idaho is on a 12-3-1 ATS run in road action and they're 4-0 ATS against teams playing less than .400 basketball. More of the same in my opinion. I'm laying the points with Idaho.

Buffalo at BYU
Play: BYU

The Cougars lost a rare home court tilt on Saturday when the Baylor Bears rolled into Provo. Baylor simply owns the athletic "bigs" to give BYU's interior players a hard time. As good as Baylor is this season, the winner wasn't decided until the final minute. But in the loss, the Cougars found out that they have a serious play-maker on their hands. Guard Matt Carlino made his first appearance in a BYU uniform since transferring from UCLA a year ago. Carlino is already a fan favorite and rightly so. The 6'2 guard scored 18 points on 50% shooting (FG & 3-pointers) in 24 minutes of action. Carlino gets up and down the court faster than anyone on the team and he's extremely quick at closing out shooters on the defensive end. Buffalo is off to a nice start which includes a 29-point win over Dayton. The Bulls return 4 starters from last year's 20-14 squad. But I believe they're going to be a bit overwhelmed at Marriott Center. The Cougars beat Buffalo by a 90-82 final as a 9-point road favorite last season. The Cougars may not have Jimmer, but Carlino will begin to ease that loss. BYU is in the top 35 in FG shooting and 3-point shooting, and they're a beast on the boards. The Cougars also rank 33rd in FG percentage allowed. The Cougars will not let up for 2 reasons: They're off a home loss and they know that Buffalo is a team they have to take seriously after last year's 8-point win. I'm recommending a play on BYU minus the points on Tuesday.

BEN BURNS

Predators @ Capitals
PICK: Under 5.5

These teams have both been involved in some low-scoring games of late. The Capitals lost 2-1 last time out. Their previous game resulted in a 1-0 victory. In fact, they've now scored only one goal in three straight games. Meanwhile, the Predators are also off a 2-1 game, a victory over St. Louis on 12/17. They've now seen three of their last four games fall below the total.

Nashville, which has won five straight, has now seen the 'under' go 18-11-2 the past few seasons, when on a winning streak of three or more games. During that streak, the Preds have also seen the 'under' go 34-21 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Also, note the 'under' is 3-0-2 their last five against Eastern Conference opponents.

Off the three straight one goal performances, one might expect the Caps to break out offensively tonight. That may happen. However, it hasn't always proven to be the case, In fact, a closer look reveals that the 'under' is now a lucrative 22-10-2 the past few seasons, when they're off a game in which they scored one or fewer goals.

Looking at this season's earlier meeting shows that Nashville won by a score of 3-1. While already "low," that score was even a little deceiving. That's because that game was actually scoreless with five minutes left in the third period. After 55 minutes without a tally, all four goals (one of them an empty-netter) came in the final five minutes. Two of those came in the final 25 seconds. (Last year's meeting also fell below the total, a 3-2 win by the Caps.)

The fact that the Preds won that 11/15 meeting is worth mentioning. That's because the Caps have seen the 'under' go a modest 40-34-7 when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. With the 'under' also at a lucrative 25-15-4 when the Caps faced a Western Conf. opponent, consider the UNDER 5.5 goals.

VEGAS EXPERTS

NY Islanders at Winnipeg Jets
Play: Winnipeg Jets

Yesterday’s Tip cashed on Detroit and we have another under-valued favorite for tonight’s Tip. Winnipeg is a -155 favorite but still has tons of value over a poor New York Islanders team. The Islanders are only 5-17 SU this season when playing as an underdog and will struggle this evening. Winnipeg has won six of their last eight games while the Islanders are coming off a win over Minnesota but before that matchup they lost four straight. Winnipeg already shutout the Islanders this season 3-0 on the road as +130 underdogs and should have another easy matchup at home tonight since they are 11-5 SU in all home games this season.

Sean Murphy

Minnesota Wild @ Calgary Flames
PICK: Calgary Flames

Both of these teams are struggling right now, but the Flames have the benefit of playing at home, and unlike the Wild, don't find themselves in a back-to-back situation.

Minnesota has lost four games in a row, with the most recent setback coming last night in Vancouver. The Wild failed to score a single goal in the 4-0 defeat - they've now scored only five goals over their last four contests.

Of course, offensive woes are nothing new for the Wild. They're averaging only 2.35 goals per game on under 27 shots per contest away from home this season. While they've managed to hold the opposition to less than 2.2 goals per game on the road, they're actually giving up over 34 shots per game.

Calgary returns home following a winless four-game road trip. It's worth noting that the Flames are riding a three-game winning streak here on home ice, having outscored the opposition 13-8 over that stretch.

Unlike the Wild, the Flames have had some offensive success recently, scoring eight goals in their last three games. Their power play has been steadily improving, scoring at least one goal in each game over that period.

Minnesota has had some recent success in Calgary, but remains 8-20-2 in the last 30 meetings between these two teams at the Saddledome. The Wild should have a better opportunity to get back on track in the final stop on this road trip, in Edmonton on Thursday night.

Steve Janus

Idaho -2

I really like the Idaho Vandals to come away with a win against the Wright State Raiders tonight. The Vandals are 7-4 overall and 4-2 on the road, which includes a 74-60 win as a 12.5-point underdog at Oregon State. The Raiders are just 4-8 and simply aren't playing good basketball. Wright State is just 3-4 at home this season. In their last two home games they lost by 20 to Cincinnati and 28 to Ohio.

Wright State averaged just 55.3 ppg on 37.8% shooting. The Vandals come in allowing opponents to shoot just 38% from the field. The big difference in this game will be inside on the boards. The Raiders are an awful rebounding team, averaging just 29 boards a game. Idaho is 9-2 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season. Winning by an average score of 71.8-58.7.

Idaho is also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Wright State +3

Off back-to-back disappointing performance against Cincinnati and Ohio, expect Wright State to put its best foot forward tonight. The Raiders have been a quality investment when catching points at home, going 13-6 ATS in their last 19 in the road. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Wright Stat's 28-point loss to Ohio last game is significant because it is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home and 9-1-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Idaho crushed Cal State Bakersfield 72-44 last game but is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Vandals are also only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. In addition, Idaho is 0-7 ATS all-time under coach Verlin when checking into a road game following wins in 4 of its last 5 contests. We'll side with the hungry home dog in this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Islanders +138 over WINNIPEG

The Jets have been a great addition to the NHL season this season. They play an exciting brand of hockey and they’ve rejuvenated the city. That said, this looks like an extremely vulnerable spot for Winnipeg. Firstly, the Jets have played just one road game since November 29, covering a 10-game span. They’re also coming off that highly emotional Saturday night contest and the surrounding attention in Teemu Selanne’s return to Winnipeg. This game is sandwiched between that one and an upcoming contest with the Montreal Canadiens, the team that opened the year here and punished the Jets 5-1. The Islanders are exactly the type of team that can take advantage of a club that’s not 100% focused. New York has been playing so much better recently despite a string of losses. They’re coming off a 2-1 win over Minnesota and that followed a four-game losing streak in which they played nose-to-nose with all of its opponents, games that could’ve easily netted different results. The Islanders have picked up points in seven of their last 10 games and they can take advantage of catching the Jets in a big letdown spot. Play: N.Y. Islanders +138 (Risking 2 units).

NEW JERSEY -½ +142 over N.Y. Rangers

The Rangers are a tough team to beat but right now the Devils are playing as good as anyone and we’ll continue to ride them until this hot run ends. New Jersey has won four in a row and six of seven. They’re not only winning but they’re scoring at a rate that’s never been seen before in New Jersey. With the hottest line in the NHL putting up points every game, the Devils have scored five or more in four of their last seven. During its current four-game win streak, New Jersey has lit the lamp 19 times. By contrast, the Rangers have scored four times in their last three games. Devils too hot to ignore and it’s also worth noting that they’re 22-7 over their past 29 games when favored. Play: New Jersey -½ +142 (Risking 2 units).

Phoenix +117 over FLORIDA

When a posted total of five comes in, the books are expecting a low-scoring, close game and that means the dog has a great chance of winning. This is not a big game for the Panthers. They rarely see the Coyotes and in fact, Phoenix has played here just once in the past four years. Florida is coming off three OT games in a row and four OT games in its last five. Those are intense contests and with a brief, two-game trip on deck against Ottawa and Boston, Florida could easily be caught napping here. The Coyotes rarely go on any prolonged losing streaks. They’ve lost four of five and will come in here with more urgency than the Panthers. As we’ve seen time and time again over the past three years, the Coyotes are capable of beating any team in the NHL that isn’t ready for them. In a good situational spot, give the Desert Dogs a great chance of picking up two points here. Play: Phoenix +117 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Buffalo +13 over BYU

Buffalo is a recognizable city but its college basketball program has been off the map for years. They play in the MAC and for the first time in a long time, they actually have a chance of winning that conference. The Bulls are a strong rebounding team (4th in the country) and they get excellent guard play. In any basketball league, that combo is a potentially lethal one. Buffalo is 6-2 and while they don’t have any wins over ranked or big-name opponents, they do have some impressive wins. The Bulls whacked Dayton 84-55 in addition to a nine-point win over Cornell. They lost to a very good Princeton team, but fought throughout before losing by just eight. BYU has skewed numbers this year. They come in 8-3 but have defeated eight cupcakes. It has played two ranked teams in Baylor and Wisconsin but lost to both, the latter by 17. The Cougars lost their two top scorers from a year ago and the 44 points per game that went with them. They’ll still challenge for the WCC but they’re not the dominant team they were last season and what we have here is an overvalued BYU club versus an undervalued Buffalo team. Play: Buffalo +13 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2). Play: #561 Buffalo +13 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

NHL Predictions

Winnipeg Jets -150

The Islanders broke a 4 game losing streak with a 2-1 shootout win in Minnesota on Saturday night. Losses had come against Dallas, Montreal, Pittsburgh, and Chicago. The Islanders are now 10-14-6 on the season, and just 4-6-3 on the road. Tonight's game is Winnipeg's 4th home game of a 6 game home stand. The Jets have won 2 of the first 3, and have won 6 of their last 8 games. Winnipeg is now 15-13-4 on the season, and a solid 11-5 at home this year. These two teams have met once this year in New York, with Ondrej Pavelec getting a shutout for Winnipeg in a 3-0 Jets victory. Winnipeg has won 5 of these two teams last 6 meetings. Note that the Jets are 6-1 in their last 7 home games, and 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Winnipeg is 9-4 in their last 13 vs Atlantic division opponents, and 4-1 in their lsat 5 vs a team with a winning % below .400. The Islanders are just 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win. New York has only won back to back road games once this season. Also note that the Islanders are allowing 3.54 goals against on the road, while the Jets are scoring 3 goals per game at home. Winnipeg is playing very good hockey on home ice lately, and they have a team that struggles on the road coming into Nationwide Arena tonight. I like Winnipeg to get things done, and will lay some chalk on the home team.