Nelly
Arkansas Little-Rock + over Illinois State
Illinois State has won seven of the last nine games butt he schedule has been rather soft, ranking 331 in the nation. The Redbirds were a Missouri Valley contender a few years ago but took a big step back last season going 4-14 in league play. There are three starters returning this year and the early season wins have been somewhat encouraging but only a narrow win over Rutgers really moves the needle at all. Illinois State did play close with Illinois but overall the schedule has been incredibly weak and there is little reason to believe that the Redbirds are ready for a big move in the Valley standings. Arkansas Little Rock has generally been one of the more consistent Sun Belt teams aided by a very tough home court. This season the Trojans are struggling at 3-9 but it has been a tough schedule. Arkansas Little Rock made the NCAA tournament last season improbably hitting a last second shot from star Solomon Bozeman to upset North Texas in the Sun Belt final. The Trojans were sent to play-in action where they lost to UNC-Asheville and Bozeman is no longer on the roster and injuries have diminished the squad early in the season. The Trojans have a poor record but they have played competitively in most games. They lost by just five against UW-Milwaukee, took SMU to overtime, lost by eight to Missouri State, and by three to Oral Roberts and Louisiana Tech. The Trojans were blown out against Michigan State but they have played close with several teams that look much better than Illinois State. This is a steep line for the Redbirds and Arkansas Little Rock can hang close in this game.
Wunderdog
Butler vs. Gonzaga
Play: Butler +13.5
Butler has made the best run of a mid-major in many years, if not ever, by going all the way to the National Championship game two years in a row. Gonzaga has made a lot of noise in their own right and have now become a Top 25 fixture and NCAA Tournament team. Butler lost a lot of experience and leadership from last year's team, but they still have talent and are well coached, but just have not shot the ball well yet. Gonzaga is still good, but this team is also not quite at the level of what we have seen recently. Butler is one of the best dogs in the country as they are a remarkable and highly profitable 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 as a dog, including a picture-perfect 8-0 ATS on the road as a dog of +7 to +12.5. Play on Butler here.
Tony Stoffo
UAB vs. V Commonwealth
Play: Under 120
Going with a play on the Under in this spot - as all the early money and trends points toward a lower scoring game in this spot. UAB is 11-1 Under in road games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=18 turnovers/game. UAB is 15-6 Under versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. VCU is 19-9 Under versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Plus here is a situational trend favoring a low scoring game that has gone an incredible 26-5 hitting at a 84% clip.
Black Widow
1* Northern Iowa -5.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers are the real deal this season. They are showing excellent value at home tonight as a mere 5.5-point favorite over Ohio. UNI is 10-1 this season, including 6-0 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 17.9 points/game. This is one of the best defensive teams in the country as the Panthers allow just 57.4 points/game on 41.8 percent shooting. Ohio (9-1) is a solid team as well, but they have simply benefited from an easy schedule to this point. Their toughest game by far came at Louisville, which resulted in a loss for the Bobcats. The rest of their schedule has been very manageable, and that's putting it lightly. Ohio is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more since 1997. Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season. The Panthers are 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. UNI is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take Northern Iowa and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Northern Illinois +12
The Huskies are 0-10 and will likely fall to 0-11, but I like their chances of keeping this one within the number. After all, playing against favorites of 10 or more points (VALPARAISO) that enter off a close loss by 3 points or less, provided they are taking on an opponent that enters after playing a game in which 115 total points or less were scored, has produced a 110-54 ATS record since 1997. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season. The Huskies are a solid 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points.
Rob Vinciletti
NY Islanders vs. Winnipeg Jets
Play: Winnipeg Jets
The Jets are 11-5 at home this season and have won 5 of 6 overall with 2 days rest. In the month of December they have started out hot winning 6 of 8. The Islanders are in the midst of another mediocre season and are 4-25 on the road revenging a loss vs an opponent as a favorite. The Islanders have dropped 8 of 11 on the road when the total is 5.5 this season. Winnipeg shut them down 3-0 in their earlier game and should take care of business here at home. Take Winnipeg.
Jack Jones
Montana State +22.5
New Mexico has a quality team this season under head coach Steve Alford. The Lobos are off to an 8-2 start, which includes a 7-2 ATS mark. But because of this fast start, I believe New Mexico is way overvalued tonight.
Montana State is 5-5 this year and they have shown pretty well on the road all season. They beat Utah 70-64 on the road as a 6-point dog, while also upsetting San Jose State away from hom as a 3.5-point dog. The Bobcats nearly beat Arizona State on the road as well, falling 72-78 as a 13.5-point underdog. ASU is a commont opponent for these teams as UNM beat the Sun Devils 76-71.
This play falls into a system that is a very profitable 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against favorites of 20 or more points (NEW MEXICO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season.
New Mexico is coming off back-to-back solid wins over two teams from BCS conferences. They beat USC 44-41 before topping Oklahoma State 66-56. This certainly sets the Lobos up for a letdown spot against the Bobcats. Because the Lobos have covered six straight, oddsmakers have over-adjusted tonight. Bet Montana State Tuesday.
Dave Price
1 Unit Montana State +22.5
History stacks the odds against New Mexico this evening as plays against favorites of 20 or more points that have won 60-80% of their games on the season and have covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games are 33-9 ATS since 1997. These teams have been favored by an average of 22.6 points but have won by just 18.6 points on average. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points.
Larry Ness
Ohio vs Northern Iowa
Pick: Ohio
Northern Iowa is off to a 10-1 start and some are saying the Panthers are starting to resemble the 30-win team that made it to the Sweet 16 two seasons ago. However, I believe that’s stretch. The losses of guard Ahelegbe (14.1) and of consummate team player, the 6-6 O’Rear (6.9-5.7), are HUGE. James is the team’s leading scorer (14.3) out of the backcourt plus the 6-9 Koch (11.5-4.7) is a very good interior player. I realize that Northern Iowa is the perfect example of the total equaling more than the sum of its parts but tonight’s opponent, Ohio U, comes in 9-1. The Bobcats lone loss this year came 59-54 at current No. 4 Louisville, a game the Bobcats led by six points late in the game. Ohio owns a terrific floor leader in DJ Cooper (14.8-4.5-6.6) and Ohio St transfer Offutt (11.6-4.4) has become a solid partner. Up front, a pair of 6-8 players are Keely (10.4-5.8) and Baltic (9.0-5.1), giving Ohio U more than enough inside size to compete vs the Panthers. While this game is in Cedar Falls, the Bobcats may have a slight advantage, as Northern Iowa will be playing back-to-back games, after beating Loras (Division III) on Monday night. Also of note, Koch did not play against Loras on Monday due to illness. He’s expected to play tonight but one never knows. Bottom line is this, Ohio U is a perfect 10-0 ATS as a rod dog the last one-plus seasons. I’m taking the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Ohio +6 over NORTHERN IOWA: I have been on the side of the Panthers for much of the early part of the year, but I fell this is a good spot to go the other way. Yes Northern Iowa is 10-1 on the year and they have had some good wins like beating Iowa by 20 at home and ISU by 7 on the road, but this Ohio team is a solid 9-1 themselves and they have had some very good games as well. The Bobcats showed what they're made of early on with a 5 point loss at Louisville as 16 point dogs and their last 3 on the road has consisted of a 2 point win at a very good Oakland team, an 18 point win at Portland and a 28 point destruction of Wright State in their last game. Overall that a pretty good road resume this team has posted. Ohio is led the trio of D.J. Cooper, Walter Offutt, and Reggie Keely. Cooper is one of the top point guards in the MAC and leads the squad with 14.8 ppg and 6.6 apg. The junior guard exhibited his value against Wright State as he scored 20 points, grabbed nine rebounds, and dealt out five assists. Offutt is second on the team with 11.6 ppg. Anthony James and Jake Koch have paired up to push Northern Iowa this year. Entering Monday, James led the team with 14.3 ppg. Koch is second on the team in scoring with 11.5 ppg. Seth Tuttle has been a nice addition to the lineup this season for the Panthers. The freshman forward has provided size in the frontcourt and leads the team with 5.5 rpg. Overall the bobcats have a slight offensive edges as they have put up 72.3 ppg, while NIU has averaged just 68.3 ppg. On defense the Panthers get the slight edge as they have allowed 58.3 ppg, while the bobcats have allowed 63 ppg. Ohio hasn't allowed teams to shoot well on the road as they have allowed just 40.8% shooting, while NIU has allowed 45.2% shooting at home. The Panthers have a solid edge at the line, but the Bobcats have a big rebounding edge (93rd to 322nd). These teams are very evenly matched, but the Bobcats have played really well on the road vs a tough schedule and I will look for them to win this one outright.
4 UNIT PLAY
Illinois State/ Ark-Little Rock Under 122: The UALR Trojans have had a devil of a time scoring this year as they come in averaging 63.4 ppg on 41.6% shooting, while averaging just 59.9 ppg on 39.3% shooting vs Division 1 teams, including just 56 ppg on 35.1% shooting on the road this year. Lets also note that in their division 1 games the Trojans have hoisted up just 52.5 shots per game and that is 261st in the nation. This is not a good shooting team at all and tonight they get to face one of the better defensive teams in the nation as they Redbirds have allowed just 56 ppg (14th) on 38.1% shooting (34th). Not sure how the Trojans will get more than 50 in this one. The Trojans do allow 69.4 ppg on the road, but they have allowed just 40.9% shooting away from home. The Redbirds on offense have scored 67 ppg vs division 1 teams, but this is not an uptempo team as they have averaged just 49 shots per game (331st) when taking on a division 1 team. The defense of the Redbirds and style of play both teams employ will really help keep the scoring down in this one. I look for this one to struggle to hit 115. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 7-25 in Illinois State's last 32 at home and 9-24 in their last 33 as a favorite.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Idaho/ Wright State Over 118.5: Wright State has been involved in some low scoring games at home as their home games have averaged just 117.2 ppg, but things have picked up lately at the at the Edwin J. Nutter Center as they last 2 games there have averaged 136 ppg. The biggest reason may be due to the play at the defensive end as they have allowed 80 ppg in their last 2 games at home, compared to allowing just 54.4 ppg in their first 5 at home. They may continue to struggle at that end tonight when the face an Idaho team that has put up 71.7 ppg overall, including 75.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Idaho is a very good shooting team as they are 10th in FG% (50.4) and 7th in 3-point FG% (43.0). Now despite holding opponents to just 63 ppg on the year the Raiders have allowed teams to shoot for 45.3% (277th), including 36.9% from long range (288th). Idoho will get their share of points in this one. Wright State is one of the worst offensive teams in the natio as they have put up 53.1 ppg (337th) and 56.7 ppg at home, but Idaho is not a great defensive team. The Vandals did allow Cal-Bakersfield just 44 points last time out, but they did allow 68.1 ppg in their previous 7 games and they have allowed 64.4 ppg overall this year. At the very least the Wright State Raiders should be good for 58 points, while I don't see how Idaho doesn't hit at least 65 points. This game should hit 120+ points with ease. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 9-1 when Wright State is at home vs winning teams, while the OU is 14-3 in Idaho's last 17 as a favorite.
Gonzaga/ Butler Over 133: This is a Google News play (14-5 on the year). Butler has suffered from a loss of talent from last year and that along with being a marked team has hurt the team in the early going, especially on offense, but they showed some promise last time out vs Purdue as they found some consistency from long range in the win over Purdue, hitting seven three- pointers. The Zags have been hurt by the three ball this year as they have allowed teams to hit 37.3% form long range, which is 293rd in the country. Butler has scored jhust 63.6 ppg away from, but the Zags have allowed 67.6 ppg on 43.3% shooting, so points can be made by this Butler team here. The Zags have a very balanced and efficient offense and they come in having scored 74.6 ppg at home, while Butler has allowed 71 ppg on the road this year. Let's also note that the Zags have hit 39.1% from long range at home, while Butler has allowed 46.3% from long range on the road. The OU is 31-14 when Gonzaga is of a game where they had 5 or less steals since 1997. Butler's road games have averaged 134.7 ppg, while Gonzaga's home games have put up 142.2 ppg. Look for a bit of an up and down game, with both teams combining for 140+ points.
2 UNIT PLAY
Valparaiso -12.5 over NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Yes the Huskies are due for a win, but it will not happen tonight. This is ma bad team that is 0-10 on the year and they have been outscored by 18.2 ppg in the process. They have no offense as they have averaged just 53.3 ppg on a mere 34.3 % shooting, while at home they have averaged just 57 ppg on an even worse 33.7% shooting. Valpo has struggled on defense, but the Husies have played some bad defensive teams this year, but still can't score. Valpo puts up 73.6 ppg on 48.4% shooting and should have an easy time vs a Huskie squad that 71.5 ppg on 44% shooting. The Huskies inept offense will not put enough points on the board to keep this one close.
1 UNIT PLAY
Oakland +9 over ARIZONA: Gotta love the way this Oakland team plays basketball as they put pressure on you by consistently pushing the ball., they make you run and have had some good wins, beating Tennessee, Houston and Valpo, with the latter 2 on the road, while their 2 losses have been by a combined 12 points. Arizona may be 7-4 on the year, but they are just 4-7 ATS, because they just don't blow many teams out. The Oakland offense will keep this one close.