John Ryan
Butler vs. UAB
Play: UAB -1.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on UAB as they face Butler beginning at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that UAB will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 2004. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road win by 10 points or more and with just one or fewer starters returning from last season. UAB has an 88% probability of hitting between 72 and 78% of their free throws. Note that UAB is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game over the last 3 seasons. AiS also shows an 86% probability that Butler will score between 61 and 66 points. note that UAB is a solid 43-18 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. Take UAB.
Freddy Wills
Coll Charleston vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii -5
This one comes late and is the last of 4 games in the Diamond Head classic. The only team with home field advantage of the East vs. West tournament will be Hawaii. A place they necessarily have not played well ATS at home. HOwever, I like them to cover tonight because they will play a Charleston team that is -14ppg, -15 rpg, and -10.8 FTA on the road this year. Granted the competition in terms of playing teams from higher divisions is there, but overall they have played an opponent with a .425 winning % compared to Hawaii at .674. Hawaii ranked 101 points higher in the RPI and for good reason. What Charleston doesn't do well Hawaii does well which is rebound. Charleston is giving their opponents 6 more FG attempts this season and it's because their opponents are grabbing 14.3 offensive rebounds a game. This is just flat out awful. The reason it's happening particularly on road is nearly half of their FG attempts are three pointers. Therefore we must look at whether or not Hawaii can defend the three and against three top 100 3PT% teams in New Mexico, Northern Colorado, and BYU. Granted Hawaii may have lost those games, but they are facing an inferrior opponent that lacks the ability to rebound. If Hawaii can out rebound which I think they can as they are +5.2 at home and get to the FT line which they will as they are +9.6 at home they will win this game easily. The key will be to stop the perimeter shooting of Charleston and with Charleston having to travel and play in unusual late game at almost 1 AM their local time things could be off just enough for Hawaii to cruise.
Info Plays
3* on Golden State Warriors +8
Reasons why the Warriors cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, on Tuesday nights. This is a 43-16 ATS System hitting 72.9% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) Memphis has not been favored by more than 6 points in any of their last 17 games, and they should not be favored this heavily tonight against the Warriors. Bet Golden State on the road.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago Bulls +6.5
The Bulls have to be furious over their loss to the Kings last night. They led that game by 35 points, and have been getting hell from the media all night and all day today. This team will come out with a chip on their shoulder Tuesday in New York. The Knicks are 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. New York has only been favored in 3 of their last 17 games overall. This team is getting too much respect from the books here tonight when they don't deserve it. The Knicks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite & 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Bulls and the points.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Hawks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Atlanta Hawks -8½
It's tough not to like the Hawks when they are scoring 105.3 ppg on 47.2% shooting against teams normally allowing 99.7 ppg. Their defense is also above average, on the road they are giving up just 95.4 ppg against teams who normally score 98.9.
The Wolves are horrible on defense, giving up 105 ppg against teams who normally score 100.8, plus their offense is inadequate with 94.4 ppg against teams who usually give up 99.6.
I expect the Hawks to come out swinging tonight since they are coming off a 98-101 loss in Chicago on Saturday so the big number doesn't scare me off here. Take Atlanta.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Pacers/Celtics UNDER 202
Indiana isn't the same high scoring team without Danny Granger. In fact, the Pacers are 13-5 Under when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Plus, the Pacers just played last night and tired legs usually aren't conducive to scoring many points. We'll bet the Under.
Drew Gordon
Golden State at MEMPHIS -7'
24-15-2 roll L41 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Warriors/Grizzlies match up.
Although these two teams have been mentioned in the same breathe for many years now, that is not the case anymore. In case you haven't noticed, the Griz are playing some damn good basketball, getting outright wins against Dallas, Cleveland, and Denver at home this month! I know the line on this contest may seem a bit pricey, but the right play is the Griz and here's why:
Besides Memphis solid play at home, we also have to factor in the Warriors atrocious road play, going 3-12 SU and 6-8-1 ATS away thus far this season. They have recent road losses against such bottomfeeders as Detroit & Philly, and when the play anyone good (or anyone playing well), they result has been a blowout loss (i.e. at Denver 12/1 or at OKC 12/7). Things do not bode well for the Warriors in this one.
Also, from a match up standpoint, there's a couple advantages for the Griz, but none bigger than the frontline. Gasol, Gay, and Randolph are playing with a lot of chemistry, while a multiude of injuries has decimated this Warriors team, leaving playing scrubs like Chris Hunter with their already below average front-line. The backcourts are somewhat comparable, but the Griz also enjoy a solid edge in depth.
Finally, look at this game from a perception standpoint. The public simply is not willing to lay this many with the Grizzles, believing the two teams are at-or- near the same level. Its clear Vegas is begging you to take the Warriors, and if you look at their last meeting (a Warriors win and cover 11/4) it may seem like the right thing to do... But we know better! Lay the points, and grab the cash with the surging Grizzlies in this spot.
Take Memphis over Golden State in this NBA match up.
2♦ MEMPHIS
Chris Jordan
Indiana at BOSTON -14'
Laying the big chalk with the Celtics in this one, as they should have no trouble taking it to the visiting Pacers.
With revenge on the brain from a 113-104 win on Nov. 14, the Celtics will be posied to trounce Indiana, which scored more points than any other Celtics opponent this season. It was Boston's only loss in 13 road games.
I can only imagine how ugly this one will be tonight.
The Pacers are 5-14 since that win and have lost nine of their last 10 on the road. As for Boston, it has responded by winning 12 of its last 13 and is once again the class of the Eastern Conference.
The Pacers have dropped seven of their last eight trips to Boston.
This one will be a blowout.
5♦ CELTICS
Stephen Nover
Oklahoma City at LA LAKERS -9
In fading the Lakers in this matchup, I wish I could say one reason is Kobe Bryant is playing with a broken right index finger. The broken finger, though, hasn't slowed down Bryant. He's averaging 30.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists in five games since injuring the finger.
But Bryant's greatness and the Lakers being the defending champs are two reasons why I believe the Thunder will give them a tough battle. Kevin Durant relishes the challenge of matching Bryant's scoring. Durant is an emerging superstar averaging better than 27 points per game.
The Thunder is 11-5-2 against the spread the past 18 times they've played the Lakers in Los Angeles.
The Lakers just returned from a five-game road trip. This is their first home game in 11 days. They have a huge nationally televised look-ahead matchup against Cleveland up next. I see the Lakers being flat for this matchup.
The Thunder have improved enough to where they are a .500 team at 13-13. They have some nice young players to go with Durant, including Russell Westbrook, a former UCLA star, and Jeff Green. In addition, James Harden is giving them a spark off the bench.
This is the third meeting already this season between the two clubs. The Thunder nearly upset the Lakers in the first meeting, losing by three in overtime.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Jeff Benton
Oklahoma City +9' at LA LAKERS
For Tuesday’s free play, I’ll head to the NBA and play the Thunder plus the points against the Lakers.
Really only one thing I’m focusing on with this play, and it’s the fact that Oklahoma City is 26 games into the season … and yet still hasn’t had back-to-back ATS setbacks. In fact, the Thunder – who lost at Houston on Saturday 95-90 as a 3½-point road underdog – are 10-0 ATS when coming off a non-cover!
That is pretty remarkable. You know what’s not remarkable? The fact the Lakers, despite being the best team in the NBA again, have just a 12-14 ATS mark to go with their 22-4 SU record. That should prove once and for all that the Lakers’ pointspreads are always inflated because the public loves to back this team. Guess what? This spread once again is inflated, as the Thunder have the talent and ability to hang with the Lakers (they’ve done it once already this year, losing by three points in overtime at home).
Oklahoma City is actually 11-5 ATS in its last 16 trips to Hollywood to play the Lakers. It is also 5-1 ATS in its last six games when favored by 5 to 10½ points. Throw in the fact that Los Angeles – coming off consecutive spread covers in double-digit wins at New Jersey (Saturday) and Detroit (Sunday) – has had three straight ATS wins just twice all year, and I’ll take the big points and looking for the Thunder to continue their amazing season-long pointspread trend of answering an ATS loss with a spread-cover.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Michael Cannon
Oklahoma City +10 at LA LAKERS
I am now 47-34-3 with my last 84 free plays.
Take the points with the Thunder tonight on the road over the Lakers.
This is a potential letdown spot for the Lakers. It’s the first home game for Los Angeles after a five-game road trip, and they have the Cavliers on deck.
Oklahoma City is a team on the rise. Kevin Durant is already turning into a superstar in just his second year in the league.
The Lakers had to go to overtime to squeak past the Thunder in the first meeting between these two this year.
There’s no doubt Los Angeles is the superior team here, and they know it as well.
That’s why they’re prime for a letdown.
Take the points with the Thunder as they stay within the number.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Dominic Fazzini
Michigan State at TEXAS -7
Well, I guess the Cavaliers have the Suns' number, sticking Phoenix with its first home loss this season and me with a loss on my complimentary selection Monday. But I've got a sure winner picked out today from a matchup of two of college basketball's top teams.
Texas looked damn good pounding North Carolina 103-90 at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday. Four Longhorns scored at least 20 points in the win, and they outrebounded the Tar Heels 56-36.
Michigan State has faced three top-25 teams this season and lost twice, including a 89-82 loss at North Carolina on Dec. 1. The Spartans are on a four-game winning streak now, but all four victories came against pretty weak teams, so I'm not overly impressed.
In starting the season 10-0, Texas has won every game by double digits, with the game against the Tar Heels being its closest margin. And the Longhorns have failed to cover just twice, beating Southern California 69-50 as a 20 1/2-point favorite and topping Rice 77-59 as a 18 1/2-point favorite.
Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games and 7-2-1 ATS in its last nine as a favorite. Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall and 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Longhorns to win by at least 10 points today.
4♦ TEXAS
Scott Delaney
Butler at Alabama-Birmingham
Not going to lay points against the Dawgs in this situation, as they've taken on some stiff competition thus far and take a step down in competition with the Blazers today.
Butler (8-3) has played four ranked teams this season and finally earned its first win in those games on Dec. 12, 74-66 against then-No. 13 Ohio State.
I know this is a threatening program out of Birmingham nowadays, with fourth-year coach Mike Davis - who is still known as "former Indiana coach" in most circles - running the show, but that doesn't scare me.
I'm taking the points with the 20th-ranked Dawgs in this one, as it's the better value.
3♦ BUTLER
Tony Weston
Strong winner last night as the Bucks take care of business and give us a Comp Play winner.
I’m handing you another Comp Play winner tonight as I’m taking Ohio State at home against visiting Cleveland State.
Coming into this game Ohio State is just 6-5 ATS overall this year, however, the Buckeyes are 5-3 ATS at home and get to battle a Cleveland State team that’s 2-5 ATS overall this season and only 1-4 ATS on the road.
Keep in mind, also, Ohio State has been blowing out its opponents, beating teams by an average of about 23 points per game overall (82.5-59.3). At home, the Buckeyes have been even more dominant, beating their opponents by more than 32 points per game (86.5-53.9).
The Buckeyes will cruise again and beat up on Cleveland State.
3♦ OHIO STATE
Mr. Vegas Wins
Oregon State/BYU
Both teams can run the football and have above average defenses. The weather in Vegas is not good, with 18 MPH winds tonight and cold. That is not offensive football weather, so this total is far too high. Play the Oregon State/BYU Under the total.