Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 27

David Chan

Maple Leafs @ Panthers
PICK: Under

The 18-13-4 Toronto Maple Leafs blow into Florida to take on the 18-11-7 Panthers.

Florida comes out of the break with a six-point lead in the Southeast Division; however it lost 8-0 at Boston on Friday:

“It was an old-fashioned butt kicking. There’s really nothing to say,” coach Kevin Dineen said. “I’m usually a glass-half-full guy, but there’s nothing to say.”

Note that Panthers' center Stephen Weiss is likely to be sitting this one out with an upper-body injury.

In fact, the Panthers are dealing with a number of significant injuries right now, as five players have been lost over the last four games:

“We’re a pretty banged-up team right now,” defenseman Ed Jovanovski said after Friday’s loss. “Now we have a couple of days off and hopefully we can rest up and get some guys back.”

The Leafs got goaltender James Reimer back from injury a couple of weeks ago, and he went 2-0-1 heading into the break.

Toronto is dealing with a bit of a tough schedule right now:

“It’s going to be three tough games going to Florida, Carolina and Winnipeg but it will be easier going in not on a losing streak,” said coach Ron Wilson.

The first time these teams met this year, the Panthers won in Toronto 5-1, back in early November.

The Panthers' Jose Theodore had 38 saves and is 4-1-1 with a 1.65 GAA in his last six starts vs. the Buds; his backup Scott Clemmensen has a 1.75 GAA vs. Toronto.

You may want to consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

Jim Feist

Wisconsin vs Nebraska
Pick: Under

A pair of powerhouse defensive teams meet as the Big 12 clashes with the Big 10. Bo Ryan's defense is leading the way for the 11-2 Badgers, allowing 42, 51, 54, 33 and 45 points the last 5 games! They are on a 6-1 run under the total and the under is 21-10 in the Badgers last 31 road games. Nebraska likes to slow the pace down, as well, especially at home: The under is 31-13 in the Cornhuskers last 44 home games. Play Nebraska/Wisconsin under the total.

Sean “Paddy” Murphy

Winnipeg @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Colorado Avalanche

The Jets just wrapped up a six-game homestand that saw them go an even 3-3.

Meanwhile, the Avalanche have won five games in a row to work their way right back into the Western Conference playoff picture. Colorado's home ice edge has been incredible, as its won eight in a row here at the Pepsi Center.

There's reason for concern when it comes to the Jets right now. Not only are they having a tough time winning games with any consistency, but they're beginning to lag at the defensive end of the rink. They've given up over 30 shots on goal in three of their last four games. Last time out, they managed only one goal on 22 shots themselves.

Note that the Jets have been awful defensively on the road this season, allowing just shy of 33 shots on goal and 3.6 goals per contest. Not surprisingly, they've won only four times in 16 tries away from home.

This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season. The road team swept last year's season series, but given the strong home/road dichotomy both have shown this season, I expect that trend to change tonight.

Red Dog Sports

Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Play: Over 106

This Big Ten battle looks to be very low scoring. You don't see many over/unders in this range except for Princeton a few years ago (they had an o/u of 98!). PG Jordan Taylor should be able to score a few points and get a few assists to help push this over the total. The Badgers led the NCAA in free throw % last year so they are going to be solid at the end of the game and they can make 3's as they were at 47% earlier in the year after a few games and led the nation. Nebraska lost at home to Wake Forest in a low scoring game in the 50's. All we need is a game in the 57-52 range and we have an over.

Bryan Power

Winnipeg @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Colorado Avalanche

I made the mistake of going against the Avs in this space Monday as they won for a fifth straight time, beating the Wild 4-2 on the road. Tonight, they face Winnipeg for the first time and given Colorado's 9-1 mark vs. Eastern Conference foes, I'm not making the same mistake two nights in a row. Even more impressive has been the Avalanche's recent run on home ice where they've gone a perfect 7-0 in the month of December and won eight straight here overall. This will only be the Jets' second road game in nearly a month. The other was a 7-1 blowout loss to the Red Wings. They are just 4-8-4 away from home for the season. G Ondrej Pavelec has a poor 4.00 GAA in his previous seven road starts & is likely to be in net Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Avs G Jean Sebastien-Giguere has a 1.45 GAA his last four starts at home. Look for Colorado to continue its home dominance Tuesday.

JR O'Donnell

Minnesota +5

Mil Bucks got crushed on the boards last night by a Charlotte Bobcats club 52-39 margin.. Wolves Beasley & Love are 2 flat out monsters.... Bucks 1-4 last 5 at home & Dog in the series 4-1-1.... Looking deep boys the Mil Bucks starters logged tons of minutes last night... Wolves are a sharpie here tonight..... Both crew off a back to back.... We feel that Jennings get shut down tonight @ the Us Cellular Center...... We are power rating this ball game @ Mil - 2.11 points

SPORTS WAGERS

Western Michigan +2½ over Purdue

Western Michigan sports one of the nation's top quarterbacks in Alex Carder, while national receiving leader Jordan White headlines a deep and productive group. The Broncos are strictly one-dimensional though, which is good news for a Purdue team that has struggled to stop good rushing attacks but has a solid secondary. Western Michigan is fired up for its first bowl trip to nearby Detroit and while others from the Big Ten may have been disappointed with this bowl game, the Boilermakers are not. The Boilers should be able to run the ball on a soft Broncos rush defense despite losing RB Ralph Bolden to a serious knee injury in the season finale at Indiana but this team has suffered further roster issues since then. The leading tackler and third-leading receiver will miss the bowl with suspensions, two more starters have been arrested and some other players are in academic limbo. Purdue has split four games against MAC competition under Danny Hope, though the Boilers were giving double digits in each. The Broncos have some things going for them here but Western backers are still getting less than a field goal to oppose a program that's 38-9-1 all-time against MAC teams. We side with the underdog, but can't endorse this one strongly at the short price. Play: Western Michigan +2½ (No bets).

N.C. STATE –1½ +100 over Louisville

Charlie Strong has a Louisville team loaded with talented underclassmen that is poised to be a major player in an expanding Big East. This year's group matured as the season progressed but it's far from the senior-laden bunch that beat Southern Miss in St. Petersburg last bowl season. North Carolina State improved throughout the year as well, largely due to the return of several players injured in early fall and that has them flying under the radar. The Wolfpack's capable passing attack features all-conference threats at wideout and tight end and matches up well with a Louisville defense that's much more vulnerable against the pass than the run. The Pack's improving defense is second nationally in turnovers gained and is stout enough up front to handle the Wildcat/Pistol-oriented Louisville attack. This game will be played in front of a partisan crowd in Charlotte and we won't fade Tom O'Brien, who, at 7-2 straight up and 8-1 against the spread is one of the nation's most accomplished bowl coaches. We get the better side, more Bowl experience, a favorable crowd and all we have to lay is a pork chop? Louisville is getting far too much credit here. Play: N.C. State –1½ +100 (Risking 2 units).

DETROIT -½ +106 over St. Louis

After last night’s win, St. Louis has won 14 of 18 home games. On the road they’re a different story with just seven wins in 17 games. They’ve lost two of its last three road games with only win over that span coming against a Coyotes club that outshot them 26-18. The Blues have played some tough hockey but they’ve overachieved with the talent they have and a lot of their success has been due to hot goaltending. The kicker here is that the Blues have beaten the Red Wings both games this season and an inferior club will seldom beat the superior club three times in succession. As tough as the Blues have been at home, Detroit has been better with 13 wins in 16 games at the Joe. They were flat last night in Nashville and you can be sure they had this game on their minds, as St. Louis sits one point above them in the standings. If Brian Elliott beats us, so be it. Jimmy Howard can play too and what we can almost guarantee is that the Red Wings will be jacked up and determined to beat this intruder for the first time this season, reminding St. Louis of who is boss. Play: Detroit -½ +106 (Risking 2 units).

COLUMBUS +110 over Calgary

Much prefer a team playing its second game back after a break than a team playing its first game back. Despite some wins (and some losses too), we saw a bunch of teams come out flat yesterday including Detroit, Chicago, San Jose, New Jersey and Washington. Interestingly enough, the Jackets weren’t one of those teams. Down 3-0 headed to the third, Columbus absolutely dominated the Blackhawks in the final period, allowed just 22 shots on net the whole game and that shows a team that surprisingly has not quit. The Flames are coming off a couple of big wins prior to the break. They beat Detroit and followed that up with its biggest win of the year over the Canucks in Vancouver, thus creating this letdown spot. The Flames have won three in a row and will now play their second game of a six-game trip. However, they returned home for the Christmas break and have been off for three full days. After three days rest and following a win, the Flames are 0-2 this season. The Jackets are an enigma. They have more talent that many teams in this league but they keep losing. If last night’s effort is duplicated here, they’ll get the money and the short line strongly suggests that’s a distinct possibility. Play: Columbus +110 (Risking 2 units).

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Western Michigan +2.5 over Purdue: I know this is MAC vs Big 10, but I feel the wrong team is favored here. The Western Michigan Broncos proved they could take on the BCS this year as they were outgained by just 9 yards in the game vs Michigan, they beat UConn on the road and lost by just 3 at Illinois. Western Michigan's offense is led by the dynamic duo of Alex Carder and Jordan White. The quarterback and receiver have combined to give the Broncos the MAC's top passing attack and eighth best aerial attack in the nation with an average of 328.3 yards through the air per game. Carder ranks seventh in the nation with 335.2 yards of total offense per game and has had some huge performances this season including a 548-yard and seven-touchdown passing day against Toledo in a thrilling 66-63 loss. Carder has had the luxury of passing to the nation's leading receiver in receptions and receiving yards per game in Jordan White. The Boilers have been good against the pass as they rank 36th in that category (202.8 ypg), but overall they rank 64th in points allowed (26.4 ppg) and that includes allowing 35.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Western Michigan's defense is not spectacular with national rankings of 100th in total yards of offense allowed per game (434.1 ypg.) and 72nd in scoring defense (28 ppg.), but they do have the 2011 MAC Defensive Player of the Year Drew Nowak, who accumulated 83 tackles, 8.5 sacks, and a forced fumble on his way to the award. Johnnie Simon leads the team with 103 total tackles. Even though their defense was bad, the Broncos should be able to contain this fairly weak Purdue attack. Purdue is ranked 79th in total offense, 83rd in passing and 67th in points allowed. Purdue does rank 36th in rushing, but they will be without top RB Ralph Bolden who injured his knee in the season finale, plus they are going up against this powerful Broncos attack, so running the ball will not help them keep pace here. Purdue may slow this offense down a bit, but not nearly enough to get the win as their own offense just doesn't have the horses to outscore this team.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

NC State -1.5 over Louisville: Louisville has won all three previous meetings with NC State on the gridiron, but I expect tonight to be different. The Cardinals are a young team, especially on the offensive side of the football and it showed at times this season in terms of consistency. Louisville finished the regular season averaging a modest 21.8 ppg on just 328.2 yards of total offense. Freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed an impressive 66.0 percent of his passes this year, but threw for just 1,855 yards, with 12 TDs against nine INTs and he will be throwing to 2 freshmen WR's, so you see how young this offense is. It would have been 3 freshmen WR's but their leading receiver Michaelee Harris is out for this game with a knee injury. Now this young inexperienced offense must take on a NC State defense that comes in ranked 2nd nationally in takeaways. This has been an inconsistent defense overall, but they did play better down the stretch as they allowed 22.7 ppg and 297.3 ypg in their last 3 games. They did allow 41 points to Maryland in the season finale, but on just 365 yards, as TO's and poor special teams play set up the Terps with easy scoring chances. I expect this defense to play really well vs the young Cardinal offense tonight. The Wolfpack's offense was a little more stable this season, but still struggled with consistency from time to time. The team averaged 28.0 ppg this season, netting a modest 108.2 yards per game rushing and 238.0 yards per game passing. Quarterback Mike Glennon had a decent season, completing 62.4 percent of his passes, for 2,790 yards with 28 TDs. The team has a go-to-guy on the outside in wideout T.J. Graham. A game-changer in the return game, Graham also led the team in receptions (tied with 39), for 641 yards and five TDs. All in all this offense still gets a solid edge over that of the Cardinals. The strength of the Louisville team resides on the defensive side of the football. The Cardinals allowed just 19.2 ppg this season, but i feel that Glennon can have a good night vs them as they are 63rd in the nation vs the pass, allowing 224.3 ypg. Both teams followed similar paths to the postseason. The Wolfpack have star power on both sides of the football, while the Cardinals bring a whole lot of youth into this bowl game (10 freshmen starters overall). I do not think youth will be served here as the Wolfpack experience will show in the second half and pull away late< especially since this is practically a home game for them. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- PLay on any team with a line of +3 to -3 (NC STATE), if they have a TO Margin of +1 per game or better and they are off a game in which they committed 3 or more TO's. This play is 32-9 the last 10 seasons.

2 UNIT PLAY

NC State/ Louisville Under 44.5: As always I'm gonna try and not repeat too many stats from above. The Wolfpack defense was a bit inconsistent at times, but they have played better down the stretch and will be taking on a young Cardinal offense that is not explosive at all (95th in yards per play, 4.9). The Cardinal is 104th in total offense and 100 in ppg (21.8), so i don't look for a lot of offense from them tonight. The NC State offense has not been great at 93rd in total offense and 108th in rushing. The have put up m28 ppg, but their defense has really set them up with some short fields that has allowed them some easy scores. They did score 56 and 37 points in their last 2 games vs bad defenses (Maryland and Clemson), but in their prior 3 vs good defenses (BC, FSU and N. Carolina), they averaged just 7.7 ppg. Tonight they do face a good defense that is 23rd overall. 9th vs the rush and 14th in points allowed, plus they have allowed just 4.9 yards per play, which is 29th. I don't see either team having too many big plays as both team will have to work the ball down the field with time consuming drives. This should be a higher rated play, but with a young offense going up vs a Wolfpack defense that causes so many takeaways, there is the possibility of some easy scores that could inflate the final score. Still I expect the Cardinal to struggle on offense, while their defense should keep the Wolfpack scoring down as well.

Matt Fargo

Atlanta Hawks vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: Atlanta Hawks -4

Atlanta is the last team to take the floor in the Eastern Conference this season as all other teams have played at least one game. I think this is an advantage as any extra preparation time this season is a big edge because of the limited preparation time heading in. There have been a few changes to the Hawks roster, notably the loss of Jamal Crawford but most everything else is in place. Atlanta will be without Kirk Hinrich for a while but point guard Jeff Teague is in control to run the floor.

New Jersey is coming off a win last night at Washington and I think it provides a perfect letdown opportunity. The Nets trailed by as many as 21 points before rallying to win thanks to a massive edge on the glass including an 18-8 advantage with offensive rebounds. The Nets shot only 39.5 percent from the floor including 23.1 percent from long range (6-26) and despite being the home opener and only the second game of the season, New Jersey could be mentally drained after last night.

The Hawks fell off last year as their regular season win total dropped by nine victories but despite bowing out in the second round yet again in the playoffs, they were able to finally take out nemesis Orlando in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Whether they can carry that over into this season remains to be seen but this is a confident team. "We have a sign in the locker room, 'No more excuses,'" coach Larry Drew said. "We're at a point in our careers now where it's time to take that next step."

Getting off to a good start is priority number one for Atlanta and while it lost both meetings in New Jersey last season, the situation is much better here. The Nets closed last season by going 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games while going 2-8 ATS in their final 10 games when playing with no rest. The Hawks were just a game under .500 on the road last season which was their best road record in years so winning on the road is no longer an issue.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Utah Jazz +4½

Motivation won't be an issue for the Lakers after opening the season with back-to-back defeats, but fatigue will be an issue. This will be the Lakers third game in three nights, and it comes against a Utah team that is yet to play this season. Playing on consecutive nights is doing no favors for stars Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, who are dealing with wrist and shoulder injuries respectively. The Lakers are constantly overvalued, which is a big reason why they are 17-30 ATS in their last 47 home games. They are even 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following 1 or more consecutive losses. More recently, the Lakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. We'll take the Jazz.

Steve Janus

Trail Blazers -8

Both of the these teams played last night. The Trail Blazers were able to hold off the Philadelphia 76ers for a 107-103 win, while the Kings shocked the Los Angeles Lakers 100-91.

I believe the oddsmakers have set this line at 8-points for a reason, and the public is biting the bait and taking the Kings. I backed the Lakers yesterday thinking they would bounce back, but it appears that game against the Bulls on Sunday took a lot out of them and playing on the road just made it that much harder. I think the Kings are in for a similar performance in this game.

Portland doesn't usually get a lot of hype, which is why it seems a little strange that they are this big of favorites after the Kings just beat the Lakers. Ill take my chances and roll a small play.

Lenny Del Genio

Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

It's panic time in Hollywood as the Lakers have opened 0-2 with losses to the Bulls and Kings. There's good value on Kobe and company tonight going against a Jazz team playing its season opener. Yes, it's the Lakers third game in three nights, but Utah simply is not very good. Plus, the Lakers have revenge going back to last year for an 86-85 loss as 14-point favorites on this floor. Can't see the Lakers opening the year 0-3. Take LA Lakers.

Dave Price

1 Unit St. John's +1

The Red Storm are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. They are also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Friars are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big East foes and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the Johnnies.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/ Notre Dame Under 135: Gonna go with the Under here. The Last 3 times these teams have played, Notre Dame spread the court, used then entire shot clock and as a result they won all three games and those games produced an average of just 101 ppg being scored. With Timmy gone for the season the Irish will really struggle to score vs good defensive teams and Pitt certainly qualifies. With a lack of scoring punch I fully expect Mike Brey to use that offense in this one. It has really worked for them. The Pitt offense has been struggling of late as they have averaged just 66.3 ppg in their last 3 games, but their defense has been solid of late as they have allowed 59.5 ppg on 39% shooting in their last 5 games, while they have allowed 57 ppg on 42.7% shooting on the road this year. ND has allowed 65 ppg overall this year, but just 59.8 ppg on 38.8% shooting at home. Im not sure this will be a game with just 101 points scored, but with both defense's playing well and with an expected slow down game from Mike Brey, I just don't see more than 120 points here. KEY TRENDS--- NOTRE DAME is 19-8 UNDER after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons, while PITTSBURGH is 10-1 UNDER off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1997.

2 UNIT PLAY

Wisconsin/ Nebraska Over 106: The Badgers have played excellent defense this year as they have allowed just 44.7 ppg and they have not allowed more than 61 points all year. They feasted on some really week teams though and in their 4 games of note (BYU, N. Carolina, UNLV and Marquette) they allowed 57 ppg. Nebraska has a decent offense as they have put up 66.8 overall and 67 ppg at home, plus they have shot well this year, as they have hit 45% of their shots overall and 45.7% of them at home. Wisconsin road games have averaged 115.5 ppg, while Nebraska home games have averaged 126.8 ppg. I Expect at least 115 in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

Providence/ St Johns Over 134: Providence averages 78.7 ppg and allows 66.7 ppg on the road this year. St Johns have averaged a good 69.7 ppg at home and while they have allowed just 63.6 ppg overall there, they have played just 1 notable team on their home floor and that was Arizona. St Johns allowed 81 points in that game. We also note that Providence is 17-6 OVER after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. I expect about 140 in this one.