Jack Jones
New Jersey Nets +4.5
The New Jersey Nets come into the 2011-12 season very underrated. With Deron Williams there for a full year, this team could certainly surprise in the Eastern Conference. They are off to a good start after winning at Washington 90-83 last night.
I believe the Atlanta Hawks are going to be down this season. They traded away perhaps the best sixth man in the league in Jamal Crawford, and his scoring off the bench is going to be missed. The Hawks are without PG Kirk Hinrich, and their other PG Jeff Teague is banged up as well and listed as questionable tonight.
Home-court advantage has proven to be huge in this series between the Hawks and Nets. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings overall. Dating back even further, the home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Bet the Nets Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Illinois -5½
The Golden Gophers are 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Big Ten. The Golden Gophers are also 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Fighting Illini are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take Illinois.
MTi Sports
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Utah Jazz
The Lakers are 0-9 ATS (-12.7 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a game on the road after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent and 0-5 ATS at home with no rest after a loss in which Kobe Bryant took more than 20 shots. Consider grabbing the Jazz and the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Boston/ Miami Over 187: The Heat have not missed a beat, offensively this year as they had good offensive showing in the preseason and then hit the Mavs for 97 points in their first 3 quarters, before putting up just 8 points in that 4th quarter vs the Mavs. This Boston team is getting older and the short training camp will hurt them this year, especially in the early going and on defense. in their opener they allowed the Knicks to put up 106 points on 47.3% shooting. Miami has been pushing the ball in the early going and I don't expect the Boston defense to keep up. On the Other side Miami did play great on defense vs the Mavs, but Boston is a good offensive team and they did put up 104 points on 51.3% shooting and they should be able to score on this Miami team that did show some flaws in preseason. I Expect 195+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY- Play Over - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - off a road win, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games.This play is 25-5 since 1996.
2 UNIT PLAY
Atlanta -4.5 over NEW JERSEY: During the regular season Atlanta took a significant step backwards under first year coach Larry Drew, falling from 53 wins in 2009-10 to just 44. But if you take the postseason into account, things start looking a little bit rosier for Drew. He will again have a solid, athletic core at his disposal led by All-Star big man Al Horford, shooting guard Joe Johnson, the always dynamic Josh Smith and emerging point guard Jeff Teague. This season, seven-time All-Star Tracy McGrady replaces high-scoring sixth man Jamal Crawford, who found a new home in Portland. This is a team with a lot of weapons. Last night I used the Nets over Washington and they won the Game outright, but the fact is that Washington is not a good team and it will take some time for this young Nets squad to win consistently. The Hawks are a playoff contending team, while the Nets are still a year or two away. Look for Atlanta to get out of the blocks on a good note with a solid win here.
Chuck O'Brien
Your free winner for tonight is going to be on Providence over St. John's in Big East college basketball action, as the Friars will come out of Queens with the win over the Red Storm.
I've kept my eye on St. John's the entire season with great interest, in large part because I wanted to see how the players would respond to head coach Steve Lavin's cancer procedures and frequent absences. Respectably, the Red Storm are 6-5 on the season and for the most part have held their own.
But in this conference opener, with the line a near pick or laying just a point, I have to take the better team in this one.
Six of the seven St. John's players in the rotation will sniff Big East play for the first time, and make note, the Storm have arguably the thinnest lineup, with just seven players in the rotation, and easily the least experienced squad, as six guys never played in a Big East game. Four Red Storm starters are freshmen.
The Friars aren't that much older, witth a relatively young lineup, but they've had time to bond and they're playing well, now at 11-2 on the season, including a perfect 3-0 mark in true road games. The road team is 2-0 the last two meetings, while the straight-up winner has covered five straight meetings.
Providence comes into this one riding a seven-game win streak, including wins over Northern Iowa, South Carolina and Rhode Island in its last outing. The Friars have beaten teams from the ACC in Boston College and the SEC in South Carolina, and are playing with confidence on both ends of the court. And it's really not a big deal in opening the conference season on the road, as the Friars have been the road team in 10 of the last 12 Big East openers. And they've done well away from home this season, winning true road games at South Carolina, Fairfield and Rhode Island.
With St. John's, we have a team that has won six games, sure, but the five losses came against arguably its toughest competition: Arizona, Texas A&M, Northeastern, Kentucky and Detroit. And with one of the shallowest rosters in the country, I can't imagine the Storm hanging close in this one.
Take the road team in this Big East opener.
4♦ PROVIDENCE
Matt Rivers
Free play winner for Tuesday is the underdog Kings as they visit Portland tonight.
Both teams were in action last night, and both teams recorded wins, as Sacramento beat back the Lakers, while Portland was able to hold off the Philadelphia 76ers at home.
Not willing to lay the lumber tonight with the Blazers, as I think the Kings are going to be one of the suprise teams this season that provides real value at the ticket window.
The road team has won five straight series meetings between these two teams, and Sacramento does come into Rip City having covered 6 of their last 8 on the road.
Dating back to last season, Portland is on an 0-6-2 spread slide their past eight games played, and the impost tonight suggests that slide with reach 0-7-2 when this game is final.
Take the Kings plus the points.
3♦ SACRAMENTO
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let us look at the Miami Heat to cover against the Boston Celtics.
Miami opened with an impressive 105-94 win over the Dallas Mavericks. And that game was not as close as that score seems.
The Heat have all their pieces in place and after not winning the title last season, seem to be in a better state this season. The Celtics rallied before losing to the New York Knicks, 106-104, in their opener.
The Celtics travel to Miami will only have Paul Pierce for limited play today. For the Celtics to compete with the Heat, it would need to have a healthy Pierce. Rajon Rondo will need to have a monster game to compete, but he would not be able to do it alone.
The Big Three of the Heat are starting out the season in fine form and will be too much for the Celtics. Unlike the Knicks, the Heat will play defense and Ray Allen and Rondo will have a tougher time scoring.
3♦ HEAT
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with the Bucks over the 'Wolves in a game that only purist will love. I know full well there may be more intriguing match ups on the board tonight, but I could care less about how interesting a game is, all I care about is winning.
What bothers me about Minnesota is they're getting a lot of early season love and their cover against an elite Thunder team last night was impressive. So if that's the case, why in the hell are they almost 6 point road dogs in this spot? It's as if the oddsmakers are begging you to take them, and that immediately raises a red flag for this 'capper.
It was clear that Minnesota came out to play in their home opener, while one could argue the Bucks weren't nearly as motivated opening the year on the road at Charlotte. Look for the Bucks to bring a hell of a lot more energy onto the court tonight, as they look to bounce back. It seems as though the guys in Vegas agree with this line of reasoning, installing the Milwaukee as a decent sized favorite in this spot.
From a match up perspective, you have to believe Jackson and Dunleavy will play better than they did in the opener. If they can improve upon their awful performances against Charlotte, then the Bucks are well-equipped to match up with the Minnesota. Bogut and Ilyasova makeup a big, rugged frontline capable of matching up with rebounding machine Kevin Love and the talented but oft-times unmotivated Beasley. And please don't even talk to me about Milicic. Moreover, Brandon Jennings remains the best guard on the court - by far - and will run circles around Ridnour/Rubio/Barea.
Bottom line, keeping this play somewhat modest, but overall this is a good spot for an underrated Bucks team. A lot depends on Jackson and Dunleavy getting acclimated and contributing, but I'm confident they'll play better than they did last night on the road. Lay it with Milwaukee over Minnesota Tuesday.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Scott Delaney
Your free winner for Tuesday night is going to be the Los Angeles Lakers over the visiting Utah Jazz. As part of the 66-game schedule in this shortened season, NBA teams will endure back-to-back-to-back stretches. The Lakers are the first team we're seeing in this situation, and after season-opening losses to the Bulls and Kings, I'm betting the Lakers will get in the win column with a strong effort tonight.
The Lakers showed defensive prowess on Christmas Day, and should have beaten the visiting Chicago Bulls. Last night they just didn't get enough offense to overcome the Kings in Sac-town. But tonight, back home at Staples Center, I think we're going to see the Lakers' best overall effort. Even if that means the old Kobe Bryant has to resurface and explode for Los Angeles.
It's been 33 years since the Lakers opened the season 0-3, and they couldn't ask for a better opponent than the Jazz, whom L.A. has beaten 25 of the last 28 times at home.
And while some might believe the Jazz are coming in fresh, being it's their season-opener, and the Lakers will be tired, I'd rather think of it that Los Angeles is primed after two straight nights on the hardwood, and the Jazz will be working the rust out tonight.
Last April the Jazz ended a 17-game losing streak at Staples Center with an 86-85 win, so there's a bit of revenge for the Lakers lingering there, not to mention them wanting to avenge the last two nights. Lay the points.
4♦ L.A. LAKERS
Jeff Benton
Tuesday freebie is the Pittsburgh Panthers as the small road favorite at Notre Dame, as the Big East slate gets underway for both schools.
Pitt's last game came on the 23rd, and Jamie Dixon's team was stunned as the double-digit home favorite, losing outright to Wagner! Perhaps they got caught in the holiday mode, and perhaps they were also caught looking ahead to this game against a Notre Dame team that has certainly had their number of late.
The Irish own the last three wins in this series, and are 4-1 straight up the last five times they have faced the Panthers.
I am a big believer of the "revenge angle", especially in college basketball, so go ahead and lay the small road impost with the triple-revenging Panthers tonight.
Notre Dame is just 8-5 for the season, but a closer look shows an 0-5-2 spread mark in their lined contests this season. The Irish have lost their best weapon (Tim Abromaitis - knee injury) for the season, and the host in this series is just 3-7 against the spread the last ten conference meetings.
Pittsburgh to score the road win and cover tonight in South Bend.
4♦ PITTSBURGH
Chris Jordan
For your complimentary winner on Tuesday night I am going to take the points with the Minnesota Golden Gophers, as they head Champaign for a clash with the Fighting Illni of Illinois. At 12-1, the Gophers have adjusted just fine to the loss of all-Big Ten forward Trevor Mbakwe, as coach Tubby Smith has them looking like a threat to the Big 10 title.
All I've read, every time this team comes across my schedule of games, is how life without Mbakwe is going to be difficult. Yet since he tore his ACL in late November, the Gophers are a perfect 6-0. And even though the wins came against teams such as Appalachian State, St. Peter's and Central Michigan, it gave Tubby's team a chance to gel and adapt in his absence. Sans Mbakwe, the Gophers have relied on depth and improved perimeter play, as four starters average between eight and 10 points per game.
The Gophers still have senior center Ralph Sampson III and junior forward Rodney Williams roaming the paint, and though Sampson has had a bit of a downturn, I'm banking the past nine days off have done him good, and he'll be ready to step up his game for Illinois.
In the meantime, the Illini bolted out to a 10-0 mark before losing two of their final three nonconference games, falling to UNLV and Missouri. And after losing that emotional 78-74 Braggin’ Rights clash last Thursday to Mizzou, many on the Illini went home for the holiday, returned Christmas night for practice and now get a re-energized Gophers team that wants nothing more than to open conference play with a win.
3♦ MINNESOTA
OC Dooley
Timberwolves +5
Visiting Minnesota has special motivation for tonight after Milwaukee point guard Brandon Jennings proclaimed two years ago at a pre-draft workout that Ricky Rubio was just quote “all hype”. This is the same Rubio (number five pick of the 2009 draft) who finally has arrived in America to play in the NBA and in his professional regular season NBA debut last night dished out 6 assists, while committing no turnovers. There is plenty of excitement with the Timberwolves as Rubio now joins forces with Derrick Williams who was the #2 overall pick of the most recent NBA draft. Also on the T-Wolves roster is former Bucks guard Luke Ridnour who is familiar with tonight’s opponent. Due to the league lockout these two teams are meeting just once this regular season, but it is worth noting that the Wolves have been able to split each of the past four meetings with the Bucks. Even though Minnesota lost their home opener last night, they battled back from a 12-point second half deficit and nearly pulled off an upset against a superior opponent ( Oklahoma City). Last night was the season debut for Milwaukee which saw the team cough up an enormous 14-point halftime lead and lose on the road at Charlotte. Making his Bucks debut last night was veteran Stephen Jackson who was held to just 6 points on the scoreboard. My research indicates that in the past two years Milwaukee has been a disaster (1-9 ATS) when facing an opponent from the Northwest Division, which is the case in this particular contest