Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Tom Freese

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

The Lakers are 21-9 straight up this year. Los Angeles is 5-11 ATS their last 16 games overall and they are 2-8 ATS off an ATS loss. Kobe and company are 0-5 ATS their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. San Antonio is 26-4 straight up this year. The Spurs are 9-2 ATS their last 11 games off a straight up win by more than 10 points. San Antonio is 9-4 ATS their last 13 games off an ATS WIN. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS their last 6 Tuesday games.

Cajun Sports

UC DAVIS vs. CS Fullerton
Play: UC-Davis +3

The boys from UC-Davis have shown a propensity to play well against bad teams especially on the road, as they are 8-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 20 to 40 percent the last 3 seasons. Add to this fact that they are 14-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game the last 3 seasons, 13-4 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive non-conference games the last 3 seasons, 22-9 ATS as a road underdog or pick the last 3 seasons and 18-7 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread the last 3 seasons. UC-Davis is only 1-6 SU on the road this season but they are 4-3 ATS in those games. They have also had success on this floor versus Fullerton posting a record of 2-0 both straight up and against the spread here the last three seasons. Take the points with UC-Davis.

Craig Trapp

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Boston Celtics -5

Last season head to head BOS dominated winning both games straight up and ATS. This year this injured BOS teams are finding all kinds of ways to win. INDY on the other hand has not won ATS in nearly 3 weeks. BOS is upset they gave up late lead on Christmas day and they take it out on INDY.

Scott Spreitzer

L.A. Lakers @ San Antonio
PICK: L.A. Lakers +3.5

Los Angeles is off back-to-back ugly losses by 19 points and 16 points. The second loss came against Miami on a national Christmas Day stage and that one hurts the most. Kobe Bryant even said that it seems like his team is not taking the games as seriously as their opponents. I expect that to change in San Antone. The Spurs are always ready to give an all-out effort this season. But I suspect the Lakers will be in the mood, also. Reportedly, Los Angeles has refocused with a pair of practices since the debacle against the Heat. These teams were dead even last season with each team winning twice. The Spurs had their 10-game win streak snapped last time out and I believe it's going to take one more game to get back on track. Los Angeles has won five in a row SU on the road, covering four straight road games, while the Spurs have covered just one of their last five as a home favorite. Look for the trends to continue in their current direction. I'm taking the points with the Lakers on Tuesday.

Jim Feist

Lakers vs. Spurs
Take: Over 197½

Reason: The Lakers didn't feel like playing any defense on Xmas Day and gave a present to the Miami Heat, giving up 96 points. In fact, the Lakers haven't played any defense the last three games, allowing 110, 98 and 96 points (2 losses). That lazy 'D' will hurt this game against the uptempo Spurs and their tremendous three-point shooting, tops in the league. The Lakers did a terrible job of rotating defensively along the perimeter and Miami made them pay. The Spurs are even better from long range while riding a 4-2 run over the total. I see an offensive show and a soft total from oddsmakers, play the Lakers/Spurs Over the total.

Ray Monohan

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Vancouver Canucks
Play: Vancouver Canucks

Two of the top teams in the NHL meet Tuesday night in Vancouver when the Canucks entertain the Philadelphia Flyers. Going out on a MAJOR limb here. It's been 22 years since the Canucks have defeated the Flyers in Vancouver. The date was Jan. 17, 1989, a 5-3 Canucks win at the Pacific Coliseum. You could look it up. Bob McCammon behind the Canucks' bench, Trevor Linden's rookie season. Paul Holmgren was coaching the Flyers, Ron Hextall in the nets, Tim Kerr their leading scorer. The Flyers might have been wearing the "Cooperalls" though I'm not 100% positive. It's about time this streak ends isn't it? Vancouver is one of the hottest teams going, having earned points in nine of its last 10 contests. The Canucks bring a formidable power play into Tuesday's game, ranked second in the NHL in efficiency at 23.9 percent. They're also strong at killing penalties, sitting fifth overall at 85.5 percent. They last met on Dec. 3, 2009 in Philadelphia, where Roberto Luongo turned aside 38 shots in a 3-0 Vancouver victory. The Flyers were a 5-0 loser in their most recent outing at home against the Panthers, are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. Northwest division teams. Vancouver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games, and are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home. The Canucks finally get it done tonight on home ice.

Sam Martin

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

Lakers come into this key road game reeling after back-to-back losses against the Bucks and Heat, and now face a red hot San Antonio team that not only has the best winning percentage of anybody else in the entire league, but is also an incredibly tough home team sitting at 17-2 straight up. LA has to be worried after the poor showing on Christmas against Miami, and could have a letdown heading into this key Western Conference matchup. Spurs won't have many chances like tonight to build some distance in the standings between these two teams, and we look for an inspired effort here from the home side.

SPORTS WAGERS

Iowa +3 over Missouri

The Tigers come in ranked #14 in the nation while the Hawkeyes lost their last three regular season games and will be without record-setting receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and leading rusher Adam Robinson, both of whom are suspended. Missouri ended up with an impressive 10-2 record while the Hawkeyes ended up with a disappointing 7-5 record. Why then is this line just -2½ or –3? You’re going to read about the Hawkeyes being shorthanded and about other issues surrounding the University. So, yeah, all that stuff is a reason for concern and it makes it difficult to pull the trigger on Iowa. However, the line itself does not and Kirk Ferentz always has his Hawkeyes prepared for the big one. Iowa still played one of the toughest schedules in the nation with easy wins over then #5 Michigan St by a score of 37-6 and Penn St by 21. They also lost by a combined four points to Wisconsin (31-30) and Ohio St (20-17). Defensively, the Hawkeyes are one of the best in the nation and that’s key. Meanwhile, the Tigers had an easier schedule although they beat Oklahoma 36-27. After that win they subsequently dropped two in a row to Nebraska and Texas Tech and other than that, its schedule was weak. Missouri’s ranking might be a little too generous and again, we go back to the small line under circumstances in which most folks are going to lay the points and that’s a huge red flag. Play: Iowa +3 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

INDIANA +2.00 over Boston

One of the strongest angles is to play against teams that have just broken a long winning streak and that’s the case with the C’s after their 14-game winning was snapped with a loss on Christmas day to the Magic. It makes a lot of sense too. Those big runs take a lot out of a team and after a loss and a ton of energy and intensity that it takes to win so many games, a letdown is inevitable. The Celtics are still without Delonte West and Rajon Rondo and Rondo’s absence is especially damaging. The Pacers can be great one night and very average the next. We’ve seen them absolutely dominate their opponents. They’ve also beaten some very good teams this season that include a three-point win in L.A. against the Lakers, a 16-point win in Miami and a 31-point victory over the Nuggets. Indiana has some great shooters and center Roy Hibbert is slowly becoming a force. The Pacers will be completely jacked up and raring to go here and they definitely offer up some good value in this spot. Play: Indiana +2.00 (Risking 2 units).

Carolina +1.07 over TORONTO

There’s no doubt the Leafs are playing a lot better these days despite just one win in its last four and that sole victory came against the pitiful Devils. The Leafs deserved better fates in recent losses to both Atlanta and in Vancouver. As the chalk, however, they offer up no value whatsoever, as they’re still fragile, they’re still losing games and they still struggle to score goals. Toronto will also have to face the hot hand of Cam Ward here, a guy that’s playing as good as any goalie in the business. The Canes are coming off a 3-2 loss to the Caps. They’ve now dropped three straight after winning four straight but they’re working hard and it’ll very likely pay off here. The Leafs bring out the best in Carolina and in fact, the Canes have scored 15 times over the last three games against Toronto, all wins, 6-5, 4-2 and 5-1. One last note to this game is that the Leafs were stuck in New Jersey after the area was hit hard by the recent snowstorm and even spent four hours on the runway before being told that they’re not leaving. They’ll get in sometime today (at the time of this writing at 10:00 AM on Tuesday they were still in New Jersey) but long delays knock the hell out of you and surely it’s something that is not beneficial. Play: Carolina +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

ROCKETMAN

Philadelphia @ Vancouver
Play: Philadelphia +125

Philadelphia is 7-0 SU and ATS at Vancouver since 1996. Flyers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. Flyers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Flyers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. Flyers are 5-1 in their last 6 Tuesday games. Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals. Canucks are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Flyers are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Vancouver. Flyers are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings. Road team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!

LARRY NESS

UC-Davis @ Cal State Fullerton
PICK: Cal State Fullerton -1.5

UC-Davis was 14-18 last year with THREE of those wins coming over CS-Fullerton, which finished 16-15. The wins came by four points at home, by six (in OT) at Fullerton and by three points in the conference tourney at a neutral site. UC-Davis comes is 5-7 overall, including 1-4 on the road with that lone win coming over Sacramento St. Fullerton is 4-8 but 3-1 SU at home. Fullerton lost two key players expected to be back over the summer, PG Streeter (11.8-4.7 APG) and the 6-10 Bryce Webster (7.1-4.9). However, freshman PG Perry Webster (8.8-5.7 APG) has done a solid job plus two reserves from last season, the 6-7 Chin (15.8-5.8) and the 6-6 Johnson (15.0-5.4) have surprised in forming a solid forward duo. Guard Peltier (13.2), has also been a nice surprise. UC-Davis has two 6-8 players, Harden (14.8-6.2) and Payne (12.7-4.8) but both are more the big guard / small forward types. These teams are similar in talent, making last year's three-game sweep by the Aggies a 'head-scratcher.' Expect the Titans to 'scratch that itch' tonight and get the win.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

It's going to be tough for the Magic to get up for this game following last night's dominant performance against New Jersey and with a big showdown against the Knicks on deck. Cleveland, however, which has the benefit of a day of rest, and it will be out to end a 3-game skid. While Orlando's new personnel is starting to jell a little bit, it's always tough playing a back-to-back, especially out on the road. With this in mind, we can't ignore the fact that Orlando is just 1-8 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite this season, actually losing by an average score of 96.9 to 93.4 in this situation. In addition, the Magic are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. We'll take the points this evening.

Jack Jones

Lakers/Spurs UNDER 199

This game will be a defensive battle tonight in San Antonio between the defending champs and the best team in the league this season. San Antonio is 26-4 this season where they are giving up 98.1 PPG overall and 96.9 PPG at home. The Lakers are struggling of late, but they still get after it defensively where they allow 97.8 PPG overall and on the road. After back-to-back losses, expect a great effort defensively from the Lakers tonight. Los Angeles has scored a combined 159 points in their last two games for an average of 79.5 PPG.

These teams typically play in low-scoring affairs when they get together. The UNDER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in this series. The Spurs and Lakers have combined to score 199 or less points in 17 of their last 18 meetings and 36 of their last 40 meetings overall. They are so familiar with each other because years in and year out they've been the two teams that consistently compete to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals. They know each other inside and out, and their philosophies have not changed because their head coaches remain the same. Take the UNDER Tuesday.

Black Widow

1* on Indiana Pacers +6

Indiana is much-improved this season and will give the Boston Celtics a run for their money tonight. Boston remains banged up with three key players in PG Rajon Rondo, C Kendrick Perkins and SG Delonte West all out with injuries. The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this series. Indiana is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home meetings with Boston, with their only loss coming in overtime. The Pacers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. This is a Pacers team that owns a winning home record where they are outscoring opponents 102.2 to 97.5 on average. Plays on home underdogs (INDIANA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1996. Take the Pacers and the points.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Lakers/Spurs UNDER 198.5

I expect plenty of defensive intensity in what should feel like a playoff game tonight. As a result, we should see this one play to the Under. The Lakers have played to the Under in 15 of their last 19 games. Plus, this matchup has been an Unders machine. The Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall and 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in San Antonio. The Under is 7-3 in the Spurs' last 10 home games and 9-3 in the Lakers' last 12 road games. Bet the Under.