Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets -7.5
With Carmelo Anthony expected to return to the lineup tonight, expect Denver to bring its 3-game losing streak to an end against a team it has dominated at home. Denver is a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread at home against the Blazers since the beginning of the 2008 season. It has won those games by an average score of 108 to 94. Denver is an awesome 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning by an average of 13.7 points in this situation. Lay the points.
Bobby Maxwell
Missouri (-2') vs. Iowa, at Tempe, Ariz.
For my comp selection, too much drama going on at Iowa to go with the Hawkeyes tonight against a damn good Missouri team in the Insight Bowl in Tempe, Ariz. I’ll lay the chalk with the Tigers and expect them to win it by two touchdowns.
Iowa has had to suspend all-Big Ten WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos after he was arrested on drug charges and tested positive for cocaine and marijuana. Then the H awkeyes announced that RB Adam Robinson would not be playing for “failing to comply with team expectations and policies.” He had rushed for 941 yards and 10 TDs this season. Throw those 10 TDs on top of Johnson-Koulianos’ 10 TDs and that’s 20 TDS of offense missing tonight.
Missouri’s defense is already tough to score on, allowing just 15.2 points per game, good for sixth in the nation. Iowa’s defense was sixth in the country at 16.4 points per game, but this Big 12 offense they are about to face is much different than what they saw in the Big Ten schedule.
The Tigers put up 401.1 yards per game and have three RBs that ran for more than 380 yards and a starting QB in Blaine Gabbert who has thrown for 2,752 yards, 15 TDs and just 7 INTs along with rushing for four TDs.
After last year’s ugly loss to Navy in the Texas Bowl, Missouri knows it can’t be lackluster in preparing for this one. They’ll be ready and show it on the field. Lay the points with the Tigers.
4♦ MISSOURI
Karl Garrett
Missouri (-2') vs. IOWA - at Tempe, AZ
Must respect Iowa's bowl success, as the Hawkeyes have covered their last 3 bowl games, and 5 of their last 6 overall, but Kirk Ferentz' team is without 2 of their key offensive cogs for this game, and they do come in riding a 3-game losing streak with just a 1-4-1 spread mark their last 6 games overall.
Mizzou is looking to make amends for their poor bowl showing last year when they lost outright to Navy as a TD favorite. The Tigers come in with wins in their last 3 games, and just 7 points allowed in their last pair of games.
I like the steady play of Blaine Gabbert under center, and I think this kid is sitting on a big game for the Tigers tonight.
G-Man gonna lay the short impost and go with Missouri late night tonight.
3♦ MISSOURI
Chris Jordan
Missouri (-2') vs. Iowa, at Tempe, Ariz.
We have the 12th-ranked Missouri Tigers taking on a very disappointed Iowa Hawkeyes team in the Insight Bowl, and I'll give you insight as to why the Tigers will win this one big.
Not only did they watch a 7-2 record turn into a 7-5 joke of a season after they lost their last three games of the season, but they saw their all-time leading receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos get arrested after police found marijuana, cocaine and prescription drugs inside his residence and their running back Adam Robinson is going to miss this game because he violated team rules.
Why this line hasn't moved even further is beyond me, but so be it. I'll still lay the cheap chalk with the Tigers, who went from laying -1 point to 2' or 3 in some places.
Missouri comes into the postseason after enjoying one of its best seasons ever, finishing the campaign with a 10-2 record behind one of the stingiest defenses in the country. The Tigers allowed just 15.2 points per game.
On offense, it's a textbook offense behind quarterback Blaine Gabbert, who I know has to have a big game for the Tigers to pull away, and I believe will down the stretch.
See, Iowa's not going to have anything explosive to do on offense, and everything will rest on quarterback Ricky Stanzi's shoulders without the aforementioned key personnel. And by the second half, the Iowa defense is going to be awfully tired from being on the field for so long.
That will allow Gabbert to shine late, and lead the Tigers to a pull-away win and cover.
5♦ MISSOURI
Joel Tyson
Minnesota (+14) at PHILADELPHIA
Before you laugh, consider that the Eagles are primed for a letdown here, as they scored the improbable comeback win against the Giants last weekend, and they do have a home game against their other hated rivals the Dallas Cowboys on-deck for this upcoming Sunday.
Minnesota may be bad, but consider this, NFL favorites of 14-points or more are 6-0 straight up this year, but only 2-4 against the spread.
The Vikings don't want to be humiliated once again under the prime time lights, so grab the generous impost as the Birds win it outright, but the Vikes stay inside of the roomy impost.
1♦ MINNESOTA
Derek Mancini
Minnesota (+14) at PHILADELPHIA
Make no mistake, the extra days of rest and prep helped the Vikings. But it helped for more reasons than one. You see, besides the obvious rest time for Peterson and possibly Favre (doubtful, but its Favre), the Eagles also got to watch the Giants lose to the Packers. That loss clinched the division for Philly, as they sat back on their couches Sunday. Not a good thing. Sure, everyone wants a first round bye, but is it the same as a division title? No.
One could argue that the Vikings are just as motivated to play spoiler after their dismal season, a big win would be huge for this team. Not only that, but Peterson is definately playing, and it anyone's guess (as of this writing) about Favre, however, I still expect Webb will play better than last week, if called upon. Eagles defense is good, but it ain't that good.
Finally, consider the emotional high the Eagles are on right now. Its never easy to refocus from a huge comeback win like the one the Eagles manufactured last week against the Giants. Then throw in the division championship, and you've got a team ripe for a letdown. Don't think we'll see any outright upsets here, but the Vikings will keep this game within the number. Take Minnesota plus the points over Philadelphia Monday.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Chuck O'Brien
N.Y. Knicks (+9') at MIAMI
For Tuesday’s complimentary selection in the NBA – and by the way I’m on a 7-2 run with free releases after Air Force got it done against Georgia Tech in Monday’s Independence Bowl – take the Knicks as a big road underdog at Miami.
The Heat certainly looked like championship material with their 96-80 Christmas Day shellacking of the Lakers (winning outright as 3½-point underdog). And there’s no denying this All-Star team is on a roll, having won 14 of 15, while going 11-3 ATS in the last 14.
However, Miami has cashed just twice in its last five games as a favorite, including back-to-back non-covers at home against Cleveland (a shaky 101-95 win as a 16½-point favorite) and Dallas (a 98-96 loss as a 6½-point chalk). In fact, LeBron, Wade and Co. are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 at home (all as a favorite).
New York has followed up a three-game slide – which came on the heels of an eight-game winning streak – with consecutive blowout home wins over quality foes Oklahoma City (112-98) and Chicago (103-95). The Knicks easily cashed in both games and they’re on a 16-4 ATS roll, including nine spread-covers in their last 10 road games (eight of those 10 being outright wins!).
Yes, the Knicks’ worst performance in the last month came 11 days ago at Madison Square Garden against these Heat (a 113-91 setback as a five-point favorite). And yes Miami has won the last six meetings in a row, cashing in each of the last five. However, New York – in addition to those aforementioned incredible spread-covering streaks – are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six when catching 5 to 10½ points on the highway (and tonight they’re catching nearly double digits).
With the Heat still riding high off that big win in L.A. on Saturday – and with them having a game tomorrow night in Houston – the Chuckster senses a flat spot for the home team. Unlike what happened 11 days ago at the Garden, New York keeps this one close throughout and stays inside the number.
3♦ N.Y. KNICKS
Stephen Nover
N.Y. Knicks (+9') at MIAMI
No, the Knicks aren't in the class of the Miami Heat. But they are 15-4 in their last 19 games and off impressive victories against Oklahoma City, 112-98, and Chicago, 103-95.
Now the Knicks go to Miami in a big revenge situation. The Heat and LeBron James burst the Knicks' bubble destroying them, 113-91, 11 days ago. James, who gets highly motivated when playing at Madison Square Garden, scored 32 points, pulled down 11 rebounds and had 10 assists.
The timing of that game was bad for the Knicks, though. They had just lost in their previous game to Boston by two points in what could be the game of the year in the NBA. They were ripe for the pickings and James wanted to put on a show in the nation's media center.
James won't be so psyched this time around playing at home. This is a letdown spot for Miami following its dismantling of the Lakers in Los Angeles on Christmas. James may play less minutes, too, along with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh with the Heat meeting the Rockets in Houston Wednesday night.
The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road matchups. They should be primed for a strong effort and are improved enough to hang with the Heat.
1♦ NY KNICKS
Scott Delaney
L.A. Lakers at SAN ANTONIO (-3)
The Lakers are in one of their funks again, and until I see different, I'm playing against them the whole time.
The Spurs still boast the best record in the NBA, and juding by what Kobe Bryant had to say on Christmas Day, and what the mood of the two-time defending champs is right now, I doubt their record is in jeopardy.
Los Angeles followed a 98-79 home loss to a sub-.500 Milwaukee team with a 96-80 thumping at the hands of Miami in a Christmas showdown that didn't necessarily live up to its billing.
The Spurs are in after a 94-80 win over Washington on Sunday, and come into this one having won 10 straight at home.
This will be too easy for the Spurs, so lay the low number and play on San Antonio.
1♦ SAN ANTONIO
Michael Cannon
Minnesota (+8) at WISCONSIN
Let’s build off yesterday’s outright free winner on the Timberwolves with a play on Minnesota plus the points on the road over Wisconsin in a Big Ten matchup.
I have to say I’m a little surprised at the number here. Minnesota fared well in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off Classic, knocking off North Carolina and West Virginia.
The Gophers are back at full strength with the return of guard Al Nolan, who had missed time with a foot injury.
Wisconsin has revenge motive for last year’s 16-point setback to Minnesota at The Barn, but all that tells me is Minnesota isn’t intimidated by the venue and this year’s team is stronger anyway.
Take the points with Minnesota on the road over Wisconsin.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Stephen Nover
Minnesota (+8) at WISCONSIN
Wisconsin is a great defensive club. But the Badgers aren't built to cover big margins like this, especially against an improved Gophers team that has become respectable under Tubby Smith.
The Gophers are on a five-game winning streak. They looked strong in non-conference going 11-1, including defeating then-No. 8 North Carolina and West Virginia.
Minnesota has won the past three meetings against Wisconsin. It's not a fluke. The Gophers' have a huge front line consisting of Trevor Mbakwe, Ralph Sampson and Cotlon Iverson. They lead the Big Ten in blocks and Mbakwe is the conference's second-leading rebounder.
This makes the Gophers a difficult team to get penetration on. The Badgers have had problems with the Gophers' zone defense the last couple of years shooting just 34.1 percent from the floor in the last three meetings. Nearly half of Wisconsin's field goal attempts were from beyond the arc.
The Gophers' already strong depth improves with this matchup as senior guard Al Nolen is expected to play after missing five games due to a stress fracture in his foot.
1♦ MINNESOTA
EZWINNERS
San Antonio Spurs -3.5
The Spurs are by far the best team in the Western Conference so far this season and I expect them to pick up the win in this game. The Lakers are not playing very well at all and they have also played on of the easiest schedules in the NBA so far this season. Thirty games into the season and LA has only played six teams that have a record better than .500. In those games the Lakers only have a 2-4 record. LA should be fired up after their embarrassing Christmas day loss to the Heat, but the Spurs should match that fire because they are coming off of an embarrassing home loss to the Magic in their last game. Lay the points.
Info Plays
3* Lakers +3
Reasons why Lakers will cover:
1) Play On - any team (Lakers) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest, as its 34-12 over the last 5 seasons.
2) The Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
3) The Spurs are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.