Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 28,2009

BANG THE BOOK

Eagle Bank Bowl Opening Odds: UCLA -4 Total 45

This game took awhile to materialize because we had to wait for the winner of the Army/Navy game. If Army would have won then they would have played in this owl game. Since they lost UCLA at 6-6 now gets the call to be in this bowl game. Once it was announced that UCLA was going to be playing in this game the odds makers made them a 4.5 point favorites. This is odd for a team that finished 6-6 and better yet the opponent, the Temple owls finished 9-3. Temple as always been known as a doormat football team but this year has been different as they grabbed nine wins and a very impressive record against the number. They match up in most numbers against UCLA and this line has been posted on reputation alone. Eaglebank bowl director Steven Beck knows who the best team was for this game. "UCLA is the one we identified," Beck said on a conference call. "We really wanted Temple-UCLA. Temple really wanted UCLA. They didn't want a rematch with Army, although they didn't have a choice. They just would have loved a shot at a BCS program like UCLA." Temple did want UCLA and they will be ready for them. The Owls are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. The Bruins are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. The owls are the better team and this line is on the wrong side, take the Owls.

Eagle Bank Bowl Pick: Temple +4.5

Champ Sports Bowl Opening Odds: Miami-2 Total 56 -

This bowl game has two good football teams that had high hopes when the season started but have fallen on tough times since. Wisconsin is a Big ten powerhouse but could not keep up with Ohio St and Penn St and even got passed by the surprising Hawkeyes. Miami on the other hand had a very tough schedule out of the gate and played well beating some powerhouse teams in the NCAA before fading down the stretch. This game will see two different teams take the field. Wisconsin wins with a power rushing game and a bruising defense. The Canes win with speed and skilled athletes at seemingly every position. So who will win in this one?
The difference will be the offensive line of the Badgers they are big and tough and can wear down even the best defenses in the league. They average over 400 yards of offense on the road and can control the game. The Badgers are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The canes get beat on the front line and on the scoreboard.

Champ Sports Bowl Pick: Wisconsin +3

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

First meeting. After starting 3-0 SU/ATS in non-conf gms the beginning of P10 play was a disaster as the Bruins dropped 5 str (1-4 ATS) and appeared to be back in the rebuilding mode the rest of the yr. Wins vs 3 P10 tms that were not bowl elig (comb 10-26) and an Army loss got them an at-large bid here. This will be HC Neuheisel’s 1st bowl gm with his alma mater but he has been to the postseason on numerous occasions in his previous stints with Washington and Colorado (4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS). Temple earned their 1st bowl bid in 30 yrs after an amazing 9-3 ssn led by Al Golden who earned MAC COY getting the Owls to their 1st winning ssn S/’90. In his 4 yrs, Golden’s tms have improved each ssn. UCLA has 8 Sr starters among 10 upperclassmen while TU has 6 Sr’s and 13 upperclassmen. The Bruins went 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) on the road this yr while the Owls went 4-2 SU (5-1 ATS) away from home. UCLA ply’d 7 bowl eligible tms being victorious just once (2-5 ATS) as they were outscored 27-16 and outgained 376-293. TU on the other hand faced 4 bowl caliber tms going 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) despite being outscored 26-19 and outgained 341-284. A win here would give UCLA just their 3rd winning ssn in the L/7Y while the Owls could reach the 10 win plateau for just the 2nd time in school history (1979).

UCLA has our #66 off avg 21 ppg and 339 ypg. HC Neuheisel opted to go with rFr Prince at QB TY after LY’s struggles of now bkup QB Craft (7-20 ratio in ‘08). Prince is a gritty performer as his numbers really don’t define the success that he delivers to the tm. Prince’s solid play allowed UCLA to escape in Knoxville in wk 2 but he suffered a broken jaw at the end of the gm forcing him to miss the next 2. RFr RB Franklin provided a spark early on leading the tm in rushing but fmbl issues dropped his touches toward the end of the ssn opening the door for Coleman and RB/FB Moline. The WR unit features 3 players who surpassed the 35 rec mark with Rosario being the deep threat. The TE unit is loaded as the trio of Paulsen, Moya and Harkey provided solid blk’g and reliable hands. The OL avg 6’4” 318 (0 Sr) but was the biggest concern on the tm heading into ‘09. Colo trans C Maiva and true Fr LT Su’a-Filo (PS#8) played solid late helping the unit pave the way for 3.6 ypc while all’g 28 sks (6.9%) a yr after all’g 35 (8.1%). UCLA’s def finished with our #21 ranking all’g 21 ppg and 338 ypg. The DL avg 6’2” 276 (2 Sr) and is led by P10 DPY DT Price who has 43.5 tfl in just 34 career gms. The LB unit is led by 1st Tm P10 Carter who started all 4 ssns. The secondary finished with our #30 ranking all’g 194 ypg (59%) with a 15-18 ratio and is led by 1st Tm P10 CB Verner and 1st Tm FS Moore who led the nation with 9 int. UCLA has our #12 ST unit which features 1st Tm AA and Groza winner Forbath who connected on 26-29 FG’s (all 3 misses from 50+). P Locke earned 1st Tm P10 while Terrence Austin earned 2nd Tm P10 honors at both KR and PR.

TU comes in with our #87 off and is avg 30 ppg and 338 ypg. The Owls struggled so much at QB, that despite a 6 gm winning streak at the time, HC Golden replaced the starter, Charlton with bkup Stewart, who started the L/4. However the numbers didn’t really improve as overall they avg just 145 ypg (47%) with a comb 12-12 ratio (#112 NCAA). True Fr RB Pierce (MAC FOY) led the MAC in rushing despite not starting until gm 4 and missing the ssn finale (inj, exp to play here). WR Campbell led in rec yds while converted RB Jones led in receptions. The OL, which avg 6’5” 315, is a big reason that TU avg 192 ypg rush (4.5) despite having just 1 Sr in the 2 deep. The OL is led by 3 All-MAC players in RT Darius Morris (1st Tm), RG Colin Madison (2nd Tm) and C John Palumbo (3rd Tm). They allowed just 18 sks (7.0%). TU has our #72 def all’g 22 ppg and 336 ypg. The DL, which avg 6’3” 272, has 28 of the Owls’ 33 sks (85%) and led the MAC in rush def (109) all’g a MAC best 3.2 ypc. The DL is led by three 1st Tm MAC players in DT Wilkerson, NT Neblett, and the only Sr starter, DE Robinson, who leads the MAC with 12 sks and was the MAC DPY. The LB unit is led 2 All-MAC players in Elijah “Peanut” Joseph and their #1 tklr Alex Joseph. The secondary allowed 227 ypg passing with a 17-15 ratio and is led by 2 All-MAC players in #2 tklr FS Jarrett and #3 tklr SS Harris. The ST’s (#41) have had their ups and downs, as they have 4 ret TD’s but have also allowed 2 (+ blk’d P). K McManus was 17-24 on FG’s but w/6 misses from 40+. Each team prefers to run the ball and each team also possesses one of their conference’s top D-lines. Neither team has an explosive offense and in fact UCLA has gone Under the total in 10 of 12 games this year. Expect Temple to have a conservative game plan and try to keep the game close as they do not have the QB’s or WR’s to play from behind.

FORECAST: Ucla/Temple UNDER 46’ RATING: 2*

Miami is 2-1 SU all-time vs Wisc with the last meeting coming in ‘89, a 51-3 ‘Canes win in Madison. Ironically, it was that loss which ushered the end of the Don Morton era and then-UW chancellor/current UM **** Donna Shalala hired UW’s all-time win leader Barry Alvarez the next year. Alvarez became the AD in ‘05, but hand picked his successor in Bret Bielema who is 1-2 SU/ATS in bowls. At 8-2 the Badgers had BCS aspirations prior to being upset in their B10 finale by NW. The loss KO’d Wisc from a NYD bowl as the Outback chose the Cats over UW despite a weaker record and UW avg 55,919 more fans per HG. This is UW’s 4th trip to Orlando in 5Y and 6th str trip to a Florida bowl. LY they were blown out (42-13, +6) by Fla St in their only prev trip to this bowl. That scoreless game turned early in the 2Q as FSU had a 75 yd FR TD. With a win here UM will have 10 wins for the 1st time S/’03. UM is 4-0 TY vs non-conf foes (3-0 ATS vs IA). UM has appeared in a bowl in 23 of the L/26Y and is 18-14 all-time in bowls. Only 5 Canes have started all 12 gms TY with 3 of the 5 on the OL. This is Shannon’s 2nd bowl as UM’s HC and the ‘Canes covered as 10 pt dogs losing 24-17 to Cal in LY’s Emerald Bowl. UW is 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS vs ACC tms while UM hasn’t faced a B10 tm since being upset as 11’ favs by OSU in 2 OT’s in the 2002 BCS Title gm. UW rarely plays on grass going 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS the L/3Y and they went 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS on the road TY. UM plays their HG’s on grass and went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road. Under Bielema UW is 3-8 as an AD, incl bowls. UW has a young team with 6 Sr starters (1 on off) and 14 upperclassmen. UM has 8 Sr starters among 17 upperclassmen.

Scott Tolzien won over the staff with his encyclopedic offensive knowledge and was named UW’s starting QB prior to the opener over mobile VHT rFr Phillips with LY’s starter Sherer falling to #3. Tolzien had an 8-2 ratio in the 1st 4 (UW QB’s threw 11 TD in ‘08), but had B2B rough outings vs OSU and Iowa (0-5 ratio with 2 pick sixes) as Wisky lost both. In the L/5 Tolzien managed a 7-2 ratio although his primary duty was to hand the ball off to the Big Ten’s Offensive POY John Clay. Clay had a rocky start to ‘09 but after being benched with 3 fmbl vs Wofford, he had 100 yds in 7 of the L/9. UW OC Chryst uses multiple TE sets with Graham earning all conference honors the L/2Y. Toon finished #5 in the conf in rec ypg. Despite inj’s which caused 2 OL starters to miss most of August, the huge Badgers (6-6 321 avg) led the league in rushing (207, 4.6) while allowing 22 sks (7.0%). LT Carimi and LG Moffitt were both 1st Tm All Big Ten. HC Bielema wanted UW to focus on redemption after LY’s squad blew games with unorganized D play and sloppy ST’s. Despite returning just 1 starter on the DL the Badgers were strong up front led by 1st Tm All Big Ten DE Schofield. UW led the league in rush D in conf play (72, 2.5) and became the 1st squad s/Ohio St in ‘98 to go through conf play without allowing 100 yds in any gm. Taylor led the Badgers in tackles before being KO’d for the season vs Iowa. True frosh standout ST’er Borland stepped into the lineup so successfully that he was named the Big Ten’s Frosh of the Year. UW is #52 in pass eff D with improved S play but inconsistent CB play. The erratic ST finished #80 although 2 of K Welch’s misses came from 55+.

QB Jacory Harris has fared well TY but has had problems with int’s especially in 2 of their 3 losses (4 vs NC, 2 IR TD’s). He was, however, named ACC POW 4x TY. The Canes are deep at RB with Graig Cooper, Damien Berry and Javarris James. They are equally as deep at WR with Leonard Hankerson, LaRon Byrd and Travis Benjamin. The O-line avg 6’6” 314 with 3 senior starters and is anchored by 1st Tm ACC LT Jason Fox and HM ACC LG Orlando Franklin. The Canes are avg 3.9 ypc but have all’d 30 sks (7.8%). UM has our #17 offense and #19 defense. The DL avg 6’2” 277 and is all’g 3.5 ypc rush. UM has just 23 sks (#65 in the NCAA). The DL is led by 1st Tm ACC DT Allen Bailey. The LB corps is solid with two 2nd Tm ACC players in Darryl Sharpton and Colin McCarthy. UM has our # 34 pass eff D all’g 203 ypg pass (53%) with just 8 int (T-#91 NCAA). The secondary is led by 1st Tm ACC CB Brandon Harris. UM has our #80 spec tms unit. 1st Tm ACC K and 2nd Tm P Matt Bosher needs just 3 xp’s to set UM’s single season mark for consecutive xp’s. The Canes are avg 20.3 ypr KR’s and 9.0 on PR’s. They are all’g 20.9 on KR’s and 10.1 on PR’s.

Same old story for Wisc traveling to FL and in the L/2Y they’ve lost their bowls by a comb score of 63-30. While they finished the ssn on a high note at Hawaii, they lost to their two Top 15 ranked foes by a comb 51-23. By looking at the checklist, you can see that UM rates the edge in almost every position and they continue to recruit VHT’s who are starting to play at their expected level. UM has many more weapons and by shutting down the one-dimensional Badger offense (John Clay) they will be able to control this game.

FORECAST: MIAMI, FL by 14
RATING: 4* MIAMI, FL

POINTWISE

Another year, another bowl game for the Owls of Temple. Well, not really, as
this affair marks just their 3rd bowl game in their 111-year gridiron history, with
their last such reward coming in the '79 Garden State Bowl (28-17 win over
Cal, as 1-pt dogs), whose existence lasted just 4 years ('78 thru '81). Their
only other holiday shot came in the '34 Sugar Bowl (20-14 loss to Tulane). So
a rarity indeed for Temple. The Owls were most assuredly a collegiate football
doormat for the greater part of the past half century. They had their moments
under Wayne Hardin, who posted an 80-53-2 log from '70-'82, but just three
winning seasons since his departure, with 18 consecutive losing campaigns
(40-163) before this year's splendid 9-3 log, in Golden's 4th year at the helm.
From 1-11, to 4-8, to 5-7, to 9-3, he has done it all right. So much so, that he
was a finalist for the UCLA job in '07. The Owls are led by Pierce, who had a
4-game stretch, in which he posted 748 RYs. As a mater of fact, Temple ran
for >210 yds in each of its last 6 games, including 274 in its upset of Navy.
Defensively, only 3 foes, including Navy & PennSt ran for more than 112 yds.
The Bruins of UCLA almost sat out the bowl season for the 2nd consecutive
year, after 6 straight such appearances. However, Army's loss to Navy opened
this door. As can be seen above, UCLA is hardly an overland power, ranking
98th in that column, topping 167 RYs just once, vs WashSt's 117th ranked run
"D". And with QBs Prince & Craft a combined 56.6% & 8/10, they aren't an
aerial giant. A decent "D", but note the Owls topping 23 pts 14 of their last 16
games. Temple is also on a 9-3 ATS run, & +182½ pts ATS in last 32 outings.
PROPHECY: TEMPLE 27 - Ucla 24 RATING: 5

These 2 seemingly permanent bowl entrants meet for the first time since 1989.
As far as the Badgers of Wisconsin, who are enjoying their 8th straight bowl
season (13th in last 14 years), the memory of that contest 20 years ago, isn't
too pleasant, a 51-3 loss, at Madison. But it must be noted that those were the
pre-Barry Alvarez days at Wisconsin, with the Badgers a combined 4-29 from
'88 thru '90. And, by the way, the Hurricanes of Miami went 11-1 that season,
finishing as the #1 team in the nation. Thus, no barometer, altho it does make
for interesting history. A year ago, Wisconsin also played in this bowl game, &
was thoroughly drubbed by Florida St, 42-13, which returned 2 of Badgers' 3
fumbles 75 & 51 yds for TDs. That marked Wisky's 2nd straight bowl loss (by
4 pts to Tennessee in the '07 Outback), after upsetting Auburn & Arkansas the
previous 2 years. Those losses were near duplicates, as the Badgers doubled
the Sems' & Vols' overland production, only to be killed by the pass: combined
641-287 yd deficit. This year, Wisconsin is again a rushing power, with Clay
(1,394 yds, 16 TDs), the Big Ten's Offensive Player of the Year, but QB Tolzien
is also a force (64%, 2,445 yds, 16/10). Miami has reached 200 RYs just twice
vs lined foes (altho Cooper & Berry motor at 5.2 & 6.6 ypr), but QB Harris has
been simply magnificent at times, such as his 386-yd showing in the 'Canes'
opening week upset of FloridaSt. He finished with 3,164 PYs (60%), & 23/17.
Defensively, UW & UM rank 18th & 20th, respectively. Badgers averaged 39
ppg in their last 5 games of the season, & the dog has covered 11 of Miami's
last 16 contests. Have to see a high scoring contest, with FG spot worth shot.
PROPHECY: WISCONSIN 38 - Miami-Florida 36 RATING: 6

NELLYS GREENSHEET

Ucla (-5) Temple (46)
A costly final game loss cost the Owls a chance at the MAC Championship despite a 7-1 MAC
record. Temple faced one of the weakest schedules in the nation and only defeated one fellow
bowl team but it was a great season from a program that is only a few years removed from
being at the bottom of the college football world. UCLA gambled taking this bowl bid as they
would have sat out the postseason had Army upset Navy. This will be a rare game for UCLA
on the east coast and a chance to showcase the program to a new audience and a fertile
recruiting ground. It was a rough season for the Bruins but winning three of the final four
games gets UCLA back in a bowl game in Rick Neuheisel’s second season. It is a far drop
from a team that started 3-0 with three quality non-conference wins however and a team that
was projected to be a sleeper contender in the Pac-10. Both teams featured shaky QB play
despite making bowl games but Temple certainly featured a more reliable running game. The
Bruins faced a tough slate of run defenses but too often mistakes in the passing game have
led to losses for the Bruins. UCLA was out-gained in seven of the final nine games of the
season and for the Owls this will be a huge game making the first bowl appearance since
1979. Temple beat a Pac-10 team in that game and although the schedule raises a lot of
questions this is a team that posted impressive scoring numbers and seemed to improve as
the season went on. Temple out-rushed nine of its final ten opponents and the Owls could be
an underdog with an edge on the ground in this match-up. The ‘over’ actually hit in the final
seven games of the season for Temple and while UCLA has been the ultimate ‘under’ team
more scoring could take place in this match-up as the Bruins defense is a bit overrated and
Temple might have trouble getting stops with the big jump in talent. TEMPLE BY 3

RATING 1: Temple (+5) over Ucla
RATING 2: ‘OVER’ (46) Ucla/Temple

Miami, FL (-3½) Wisconsin (58½)
The Badgers pulled off an impressive upset in Coach Bielema’s first bowl game but the last
two years have resulted in disappointing efforts. Wisconsin was actually bumped down a
notch in the bowl order as the Outback Bowl chose Northwestern despite Wisconsin’s superior
record and the Badgers will return to the site of last year’s disastrous 42-13 loss to Florida
State. Wisconsin is an impressive rushing team led by John Clay but the Badgers are a team
that can be one-dimensional as the passing game has been inconsistent and QB Scott
Tolzien can be interception prone. The Wisconsin defense has had several impressive
performances however and the Badgers are a couple of close games from finishing with an
even stronger record. Miami got a lot of attention early in the year but proclamations that ‘the
U’ was back proved premature. The Hurricanes have impressive and intimidating talent but
Miami has struggled in most recent bowl games. These teams have very similar numbers
statistically with Wisconsin having slight edges on both sides of the ball but the much tougher
schedule for Miami must be taken into consideration. The Wisconsin secondary could be in for
a long day as Miami passed for 268 yards per game on the year but Jacory Harris did also
throw 17 interceptions. The Badgers should control the trenches in this match-up and decent
protection should be afforded in passing situations. Both offenses should have some success
as the high total indicates but the motivation edge should be with Wisconsin as Miami was
insulted to be placed in this bowl, being leaped over by a 6-6 Florida State team for the Gator
Bowl. Wisconsin travels well and the home state edge may not be as great as expected
playing in Florida. This game has to feel like a letdown for Miami when the Hurricanes were in
the national conversation and highly ranked much of the season before a couple of losses
came through while this will be a proving ground for a Badgers team that has endured
postseason disappointment the past two years. WISCONSIN BY 3

RATING 2: Wisconsin (+3½) over Miami, FL

LOGICAL APPROACH

Temple coach Golden is a hot commodity in the coaching world. He's made steady improvement at what's been a football laughing stock for years, improving from 1 to 4 to 5 to 9 wins in his 4 seasons. Temple's 8 game win streak was halted at 8 when they lost at Ohio in a game that decided their half of the MAC. Still, the program has found some life and the Owls are making their first Bowl trip since the 1979 Garden State Bowl (in which they, ironically, upset another Pac 10 team, Cal, as a small underdog). UCLA had been to 6 straight Bowls before missing out last season, coach Neuheisel's first at his alma mater. The Bruins improved by 2 wins this season with their most significant win coming early in the season at Tennessee. Temple began the season with a 27-24 loss to eventual FCS Champion Villanova, followed by a loss at powerful Penn State before reeling off those 9 straight wins. Their most notable win was at Navy and for the most part the other 8 wins came against weak MAC foes. Still, Temple is to be lauded for their successful season that was based largely on a strong running game. Temple ran for over 210 yards in each of the last 6 games. Their passing attack was limited. The statistics were fairly even although UCLA clearly played far better competition. Temple was opportunistic on offense, ranking # 89 in yards gained (338) but # 35 in points (30.2). The intangibles seemingly favor Temple and they should have the clear edge in fan support. UCLA's attitude may be suspect considering the cross country travel to play in a minor bowl in likely frigid conditions. UCLA QB Prince is probable for this game as is Temple star RB Pierce. Both were injured late in the season. This comes down to a matchup of UCLA's better talent versus Temple's enthuSIAsm. If UCLA made the cross country trip to play in a Florida Bowl there might be better support for a win. But Temple has accomplished much this season and they are looking forward to stepping up in class to face a big time program. They will not want to waste the opportunity to show how far the Temple program has come in just a few years. Temple pulls the upset, 20-16, making

TEMPLE a 3 Star
UNDER a 4 Star Selection .

This is a very attractive matchup between a perennial Big 10 contender and a Miami team rebounding from some average seasons but with a National Title within the past decade. Wisconsin is a typical Big 10 team in that they are physical and rely heavily on the running game. This year they did rely more on the pass and were almost perfectly balanced in averaging 207 rushing ypg and 209 passing ypg. They also play strong defense and were # 8 against the rush, allowing just 90 ypg while putting up average stats versus the pass. Miami was more of a passing team this season with two thirds of their yards through the air. QB Harris has great athleticism and is capable of making the big play from anywhere on the field. Wisconsin is in their eighth straight Bowl and are off of two straight Bowl losses. Miami had been to 9 straight Bowls before missing out 2 seasons ago. They returned Bowling last season, losing to Cal 24-17 in the Emerald Bowl, virtually a home game for Cal. Both teams should be motivated in view of their recent Bowl histories. Miami's most significant wins came early in the season against Georgia Tech and Oklahoma. They also have wins over 3 other Bowl bound teams. Wisconsin had no significant wins this season although they did outplay Ohio State in a 31-13 loss, outgaining the Buckeyes 368-184. They did defeat 4 teams headed to Bowls but none of the stature defeated by Miami. Wisconsin is usually well prepared for Bowls although they blown out last season by a faster, more athletic Florida State, 42-13 in this same Bowl. Miami has many of those same advantages. Although Wisconsin will want to make amends for that loss on this field they may find themselves overmatched. Ultimately Miami's greater team speed and more talent at the skill positions proves decisive. The Total may also provide a good play as each of Wisconsin's last 6 Bowls, and 7 of 9 dating back a decade, have produced 55 points or less with 7 of the 9 producing 45 points or less. Miami's last 5 Bowls have produced total points of 43 points or less. The forecast calls for Miami to win 27-20, making

MIAMI a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 4 Star Selection

THE GOLDSHEET

*Temple 20 - Ucla 16 —The prospects of this curious matchup have to
include some sort of projection on the crowd count at RFK Stadium, which some
locals believe might more resemble a sparse late-season gathering to watch
the lowly Nationals at their new ballpark a few Metro stops away. With only a
handful of UCLA rooters expected to trek 2500 or so miles, and with Temple
fans unlikely to beat a path down I-95 from Philly, we’ll put the over/under for the
actual crowd count at 7500...and quote the “under” odds at -120.
Temple, however, is used to performing in such anonymity, which hasn’t
stopped the Owls (in their first bowl since 1979) from posting a noteworthy 16-
7 spread mark since a year ago under the fast-rising HC Al “Touch of” Golden,
who ironically interviewed for the UCLA job before Rick Neuheisel landed it two
years ago. Maybe the Bruins erred, considering Neuheisel’s SU mark of 8-14
(which excludes a pair of “scrimmages” vs. Washington State) since. Pac-10
insiders say it’s no surprise, given the constant state of flux of a Bruin offense
that not even sage o.c. Norm Chow has been able to repair the past two years.
A big but very slow OL is again unlikely to open up much daylight for an
unspectacular crew of UCLA RBs against a stout Temple rush “D” allowing only
113 ypg. Meanwhile, UCLA RS frosh QB Kevin Prince continues to nurse a sore
shoulder that knocked him out of the USC finale. The Owls’ best weapon, frosh
RB Bernard Pierce (1308 YR; back from a late-season shoulder injury) scores
TDs (15 of ‘em), while the Bruins can only get FGs from their top gun, Groza
Award-winning PK Kai Forbath. Yet, noting UCLA has gone “under” in 14 of its
last 16, that might be the best recommendation.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

*MIAMI-FLORIDA 35 - Wisconsin 26—Simply put, speed kills, and Miami
has far more of it than Wisconsin. Hurricane HC Randy Shannon plugged the
recruiting leakage that had plagued “The U” for years by nailing three top-20
classes in a row. Miami soph QB Jacory Harris has developed quickly, throwing
for 3164 yards and 23 scores in his first full season. Harris passed for 277 ypg
in Miami’s last 7 games, although his interceptions fueled losses at North
Carolina and Clemson. He connected with Leonard Hankerson and Travis
Benjamin a combined 72 times for 18 ypc.
In order to be successful, the Badgers must establish its running game, keyed
by John Clay (116 ypg rushing, 14th in the country). But Wiscy HC Bret Bielema
might have to go to plan “B” early against Miami, as the Hurricanes allowed just
3.5 ypc. Indeed, Miami held prolific Georgia Tech to just 95 YR on 39 carries in
a 33-17 victory (the Yellow Jackets’ option finished the season second in the
country in rushing). Miami also took the run away from Clemson and C.J. Spiller,
holding the Tigers to 84 YR on 34 attempts. The Canes feature 4 all-ACC
players on defense, including LBs Darryl Sharpton and Colin McCarthy. UW QB
Scott Tolzien was efficient and fairly productive, but had problems with picks in
losses to Ohio State and Iowa. Badger TE Garrett Graham (45 catches, teamhigh
7 TDs) and WR Nick Toon (52 recs.) are Tolzien’s main targets.
There is a marked difference in strength of schedule. Both teams finished the
season 9-3, but Miami played much tougher opponents, showing a 5-point OPR
edge using TGS ratings as a measure. The Canes also have an edge with allleague
PK Matt Bosher (89% career FGs) over Badger PK Philip Welch (missed
7 of his 22 attempts TY). Wisconsin will have its customary contingent of
enthusiastic fans fleeing the Wisconsin winter, but that didn’t help the Badgers
losing and failing to cover in this same bowl last season, and at Tampa in the
Outback two years ago.
(DNP...SR: Miami-Florida 2-1)

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

UCLA-TEMPLE “UNDER”
Occasionally there are “totals” trends that are just too hard to ignore. So it
goes with UCLA, the nation’s most reliable “under” performer. And the Bruins
again seem worth a recommendation in their preferred “under” mode when
traveling across country to face Temple in the EagleBank Bowl at
Washington’s venerable RFK Stadium December 29. UCLA was not only
“under” 0-2 this season, but “under” 14 of its last 16, 17 of its last 20, 22 of its
last 28, and 25 of its last 32 since midway in the 2007 campaign!

MIAMI-FLORIDA
Big Ten teams have not exactly acquitted themselves well in the
postseason lately, recording a subpar 6-9 bowl spread mark over the past
two seasons, and standing sub-.500 vs. the number in most all bowl
categories over the past several decades. We don’t expect that to change
much when Wisconsin (a loser of its last two bowls) faces Miami-Florida in
the Champs Sports Bowl at Orlando’s Citrus Bowl December 30. The Badgers
have also not distinguished themselves lately as an underdog for HC Bret Bielema
as they used to for Barry Alvarez, dropping 9 of their last 13 spread decisions as
a dog. And the Canes have experienced enough spread success on the road (8-
5 vs. number last 13) to warrant a hard look in Orlando.

UCLA vs. TEMPLE (EagleBank, December 29)...Ugh! Neuheisel’s first
bowl since ‘02 Sun Bowl with U-Dub vs. Purdue. He lost 3 of 4 bowls with
Huskies after winning all 3 bowl tries with Colorado. Al “Touch of” Golden 8-
3 vs. line TY and 16-7 since LY vs. number. Al “Touch of” Golden also 8-2 vs
number last 10 as dog (3-0 TY). Neuheisel 5-1-1 as chalk at UCLA but two of
those shouldn’t count vs. WSU, and Neuheisel a poor favorite earlier in his
career. Note Bruins also “under” 10-2 TY and 14-2 last 16 on board! Although
Owls “over” 8-3 TY. Tech edge-Temple and “under,” based on team
and “totals” trends.

WISCONSIN vs. MIAMI-FLORIDA (Champs Sports, December
29)...Clemson (now at Music City) or Miami (now at Champs Sports) likely
quite upset for having to cede claim to the higher-profile Gator Bowl to make
room for Bobby Bowden’s last game. Wisconsin visits site of LY’s demolition
bowl loss vs. FSU in Orlando. Bielema only 4-9 vs. spread his last 13 as dog
(1-1 TY). Canes 8-5 vs. line away past 2 years. Tech edge-Miami, based
on team trends

CKO

9* TEMPLE (+5) vs. Ucla (EagleBank Bowl, Dec. 29, in Washington D.C)——Eager Owls proud to be bowling after
a 30-year wait; Pac-10 often underachieves when favored in minor bowls.

PLAYBOOK

Ucla over Temple by 1
Let’s call this one the ‘Back Door Bowl.’ What does it say about the state of
your football program when you have to wait on freaking ARMY to lose
to Navy before you clinch a bowl bid? At the very least, last-minute travel
plans and lack of fan support will make this like a road game for the Bruins.
And we can’t ignore UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel’s curious attempt at
motivating his 6-6 team when he said, “Most of our players have never
been to Washington, D.C. and this will be a chance for them to learn what
makes our country great.” Huh? At least Bill Cosby, Temple’s most famous
grad, didn’t mince words when he talked of staging a Philly-style welcome
for the Bruins on what should be a chilly afternoon. “We will take them
on open boat rides across the Delaware River in horizontal snow without
top coats and hats,” Cosby said. “They will have a George-Washingtoncrossing-
the Delaware experience.” The Coz has been all smiles since his
downtrodden Owls posted their fi rst winning season in 19 years and ended
a 30-year bowl drought. Kudos to Temple head coach Al Golden who has
built this team from a 1-11 start in 2006 into one of the country’s most
physical, aggressive squads. The Owls boast a stout rushing defense (109
yards per game) and an offensive line that averages 6-5 and 318 pounds.
Operating behind the ‘O’ line is the ‘Bernie and the Bug’ running game:
RB Bernard Pierce, the 2009 MAC Freshman of the Year, and 5-5 Matt ‘The
Bug’ Brown. UCLA counters with a strong stop unit that allowed only 21
PPG and the Bruins own this year’s Lou Groza Award winner in kicker Kai
Forbath. However, it’s Neuheisel’s pedestrian offense that may prove to
be the difference in today’s matchup – and our database supports that
observation. UCLA is only 12-20 SU in its last 32 games and the Bruins
staggered to a poor 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS mark versus fellow bowlers this
season. In fact, we don’t understand why the left-coasters are chalk at a
site that favors the Owls… especially with Temple a moneymaking 8-3 ATS
in ‘09. But success is a two-edged sword: should Golden win today, he’ll no
doubt move up the list as the hot coach everybody wants next season. Like
Cosby says, “The headhunters will be coming now.” Until then, we’ll look
for Al’s Owls to cash one last golden ticket before year’s end

4* BEST BET

Wisconsin over Miami Florida by 10
The Hurricanes head up the Florida Turnpike in search of their fi rst
10-win season since 2003 and their fi rst bowl victory in three years.
It won’t be easy for Randy Shannon’s bunch as they face a Wisconsin
squad eager to avenge a 42-13 beating they suffered in this very
same bowl last year. Bret Bielema’s Big Ten bullies had trouble with
the speed of FSU last season and we don’t doubt that Miami’s athletic
offense is a concern for the Badgers’ 17th-rated defense. However,
the Canes ‘D’ will encounter problems, as well, with a Wisky offense
that is averaging over 200 yards both on the ground AND through the
air. Dogs with a ‘double-deuce’ offense have always been “magic”
in our “kingdom” and our PLAYBOOK.com database agrees that this
second straight trip to Orlando should be a charm for the men from
Madison. For an appetizer, dogs in the same bowl game that lost the
previous year are a solid 9-2 ATS versus an opponent off a doubledigit
win. Dogs in the last 10 Badgers’ bowl games also chip in with
a profi table 7-3 ATS mark. Now let’s get to the main course. The
Hurricanes are a Minnie Mouse-like 3-28 ATS as favorites in games in
which they allow 24 or more points. That doesn’t bode well against a
Wisconsin team that has scored 28 or more points in 10 of 12 games
this season. The Canes have also failed as favorites off a SU and ATS
win when tackling a foe also off a SU and ATS win, posting a Goofylike
0-9 ATS record. Still hungry? Take a bite out of Miami’s 0-6 ATS
log off BB SU wins versus the Big Ten or its 9-16 ATS mark as favorites
under Shannon when facing an opponent that averages 130 yards or
more on the ground. In fact, under their 3rd-year HC, the favorite in
Miami games is a grumpy 11-24-1 ATS. In case those numbers only
whet your appetite, we’ll top if off with this Crème de la Crème: the
Badgers are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS as bowlers off an ATS win of
eight or more points. This year Orlando is the “happiest place on
earth” for Bielema and company.

Wunderdog

Wisconsin vs. Miami Florida
Play: Miami Florida -3

The Hurricanes get to play in their home state here. The Hurricanes’ program is back on the rise and this will be an important game to get to 10 wins as it goes a long way towards recruiting and they know it. The Badgers had a successful season by the record, going 9-3. But looking over the wins, it is hard to single out a single big win they had all season. Their two biggest games vs. Iowa and Ohio State saw them unable to move the ball, resulting in losses both SU and ATS. They have had no games this season vs. a big passing attack and they will not really be able to react to Jacoby Harris and the Miami offense here. When they faced the only other Big-10 team that passes well, they allowed 30 points. Miami's defense struggled early on allowing 34 to Florida State, 31 to Virginia Tech and 40 to Clemson. But, in their final five games, they allowed an average of 20.6 per game. Mixed in there was 33 to North Carolina, but the defense allowed just 19 in that game. Their defense held opponents to 3.5 yards per carry and 118 rushing yards per game. If Wisconsin can't run, they run into trouble. Under Bret Bielema, the Badgers are just 2-10 ATS vs. teams that allow under 120 rushing yards per game. I like Miami here.

Jim Feist

New Orleans Hornets vs. Houston Rockets
Play: New Orleans Hornets +5

New Orleans is healthy and off a tough loss at Chicago as Hornets point guard Chris Paul never got into any type of shooting rhythm. He missed five of his first six shots before finishing with 15 points and seven assists. "That was tough, I don't know what to say, " said Paul. "It's my responsibility, and I can't let us come out that sluggish. That third quarter was bad. What was the score 23-9? That's unacceptable." They take on a road weary Houston team that just finished a 3-game road trip (0-3 ATS) and has played 11 of their last 15 away. They squeezed out a win at New Jersey, but got blown out at Orlando and Cleveland. They are just 5-4 SU the alst 9 games. Trevor Ariza banged his shin the last game and there is the distratcing Tracy McGrady saga. "Watching some of our guys, we ran out of gas," Rick Adelman said after the last game. "We didn't have anything left to respond. A good spot for the talented road dog. Play the Hornets!

Jeff Benton

UCLA vs. Temple +5, at Washington, D.C.

For Tuesday’s free play, we’ll head to the Eagle Bank Bowl and play Temple plus the points against UCLA in afternoon bowl action.

I understand that while UCLA faced the likes of Tennessee, Kansas State, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, Oregon State and USC, the Owls faced just one real quality foe (Penn State, and Temple lost that one 31-6). But that doesn’t mean UCLA is the better team. The Bruins are in their second year under coach Rick Neuheisel and they’re still going through growing pains, especially on offense, where they scored 19 points or less in half of their 12 games. Today, they’ll be facing a Temple defense that held six of its last 10 opponents to 19 or less (and the Owls won nine of those 10 games).

There’s a massive fundamental mismatch in this contest, too. Temple has a top 25 rushing attack, averaging 192.3 ypg on the ground (4.5 yards per game). UCLA’s defense gives up 144.4 rushing ypg (4.1 per carry). Flip things around, and you’ll see that the Bruins’ offense musters just 116.4 rushing ypg (3.6 ypc) and Temple gives up only 108.9 rushing ypg (3.2 ypc).

Bottom line: This bowl means a lot more to Temple and its budding program than it does to UCLA, which only got invited to this contest because Army lost to Navy in its season finale and failed to become bowl-eligible. The Owls have cashed in nine of their last 12 games (8-3 ATS this year), while the Bruins covered the spread just three times in their final nine outings (going 3-6 SU, too). Grab the points with Temple, even though I smell an outright upset.

5♦ TEMPLE

Bobby Maxwell

Oklahoma City +2 at WASHINGTON

I improved to 15-2 with my last 17 FREE selections when the Thunder went into New Jersey and delivered a beating to the Nets. I'm on a 38-16 streak with my comp plays and today I'll add to that with another NBA comp play on the Thunder as they are in Washington getting points against a tired Wizards' squad.

This one might be played in Washington but it’s a level playing field because both teams are coming in off games Monday night. The Wizards were off losing in OT in Memphis while the Thunder were beating up the Nets in New Jersey.

So for this one, I still love the youngsters in Oklahoma City. They have won three straight and gone 4-0 ATS in their last four. They’ve got a great trio of players in Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green, plus they are getting some fine play from center Nenad Krstic, who had 19 points and seven rebounds on Monday.

We all know about the Wizards’ trio of Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas, but they younger legs on the Thunder are going to be a little better at recovering for this back-to-back.

Oklahoma City won the November matchup between these two, scoring a 127-108 victory as four-point home favorites. The Thunder are on ATS streaks of 9-3 vs. the Eastern Conference, 5-1 as a road ‘dog, 6-1 on the road overall and 5-1-1 against Southeast Division teams.

The Wizards are on ATS slides of 3-8 at home, 17-35 as a favorite, 7-19 as a home favorite and 1-5 on the second night of a back-to-back.

4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

Karl Garrett

New York +5 at DETROIT

NBA winner last night on Charlotte.

G-Man hitting the Association this Tuesday night, and backing the New York Knicks plus a few points at Detroit.

The Pistons are really struggling right now, losers of 7 in a row both straight up, and against the spread. The Pistons have also dropped 4 of the last 7 series meetings against the Knicks.

New York comes into the Auburn Palace having dropped their last pair, but the Knicks have been vastly improved this season, and they have won 7 of their last 11 games straight up.

The Knicks are also a positive 7-1 against the spread their last 8 Tuesday night contests.

Until the Pistons can snap the funk they are in, I will go against them.

Take New York plus the points.

1♦ NEW YORK

Dominic Fazzin

New Orleans at HOUSTON -5'

I am tearing things up with my complimentary selections, dealing out another winner Monday with Georgia's 44-20 victory over Texas A&M in the Independence Bowl. That pushed my record to 48-31 over the past 79 days, including 31-18 over the last 49!

And I've got another winner lined up today as I turn my attention to the NBA, taking the Rockets to cover at home against New Orleans.

Houston is back home after a three-game road trip, and it has prospered on its own court lately, winning four straight to push its overall home record to 8-4. The Rockets haven't lost at home to a sub-.500 team all season, and now get to face a Hornets squad that is 13-15, including a Western Conference-worst 2-12 on the road.

One of the traits that has made Houston a surprise playoff contender in the West is its tendency to have a different star nearly every night, making the team hard to defend. Aaron Brooks leads a balanced scoring attack with 17.3 points per game, while Carl Landry is second in scoring at 16.76 ppg, and he hasn't even started one game this season.

The Rockets also have been getting solid play from Trevor Ariza, Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Kyle Lowry and rookie Chase Budinger, while New Orleans is largely dependent on Chris Paul and David West to lead the way.

The Rockets won three of four meetings between the teams last season, and the Hornets have lost three straight at Houston. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the teams.

New Orleans is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 road games, 10-26 ATS in its last 36 as a road underdog and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. Take the Rockets to cover the points today.

3♦ HOUSTON