Drew Gordon
Cleveland at ATLANTA -3
27-18-2 roll L47 Free Plays, incl. the Wizards covering at the Grizzlies last night! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Cavaliers/Hawks match up.
Doesn't this line seem a bit "fishy" to you? I mean the Cavaliers win 4 straight, including wins at Phoenix, at Los Angeles, and a blowout of the feisty Rockets in their last one... And now all of a sudden, we're getting points at Atlanta? The same team they've won 6 straight games against, going 3-0-1 ATS in their L/4 meetings! Seems like its too good to be true, and guess what? It is, and here's why:
Say it with me: L-E-T-D-O-W-N. Right now the Cavaliers are riding a little too high in the saddle, if you know what I mean. While on the other hand, I see a revenge-minded Hawks team, playing great at home (12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS), ready to pounce on their over confident opponent. While I'll admit the Cavaliers have been a great bet thus far in hostile territory, this number is just gobbling up the betting public... Sorry, but I'm not taking the bait, and neither should you.
Bottom line, Hawks have been as good as anyone in Atlanta, blowing out the last 4 teams who've "dared" play them at Philips Arena. Yes, I know it was the Bulls, Nets, Grizzlies, and Jazz - and this is the surging (aka over confident) Cavs - but if any team is playing well enough to knock Cleveland off it's high horse, its Joe Johnson and company. In the end, look for the revenge-minded Hawks to bring their "A" game tonight, while the Cavs get caught in an obvious letdown spot (especially with the possibility of avenging the loss in Cleveland tomorrow).
Take Atlanta over Cleveland in this NBA match up.
3♦ ATLANTA
Nite Owl Sports
UCLA Bruins @ Temple Owls
Pick: Under 45.5
This is one of those daytime weekday minor bowl games that you don’t get too upset about missing because you scheduled a year end dentist appt. to use up available insurance coverage. And does anyone other than hard core temple or UCLA fans really care what happens in this game? Well, yes, we do, because we like the under, something we’ve been cashing in on all year with UCLA, which has gone 2-12 to the under TY, and that’s counting the over against defenseless Wash State. And if we limit the UCLA totals survey to Bruin road games other than that joke against Wash State where even the offensively challenged Bruins scored 43 points, we are left with an 0-5 road under record, with an average of just 39 total points scored in those 5 road snore fests. But Bruins are favored here, in what amounts to a road game, while they were dogs in all 5 of those regular season roadies.
Temple is a bit harder to gauge, since Owls played only two games TY (both on the road) where they were dogs of 1-7 points, like in this game. And in those games (at Navy and at Ohio), they went over the FG totals line both times, with 51 and 52 points. But if we combine and average the totals #s for both teams in these relevant road games, we get a nice 5-2 edge for the under and a projected 42.5 total points being scored, good enough support in our opinion for this 3 unit pick on under 45.5 points (make it two units under 45, and one unit at 44.5).
DAVE MALINSKY
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers
PICK: Under 220.5
The oddsmakers are forced to price this one like a good old-fashioned shootout, but that is not what Tuesday’s game flow brings at all.
When Andris Biedrins, Athony Randolph and Ronny Turiaf are on the court, the Warriors are an entirely different team from the one forced to play at a break-neck pace to be successful, relying on those forays to the basket from Monta Ellis. The problem is that they have rarely been on the court together. Last night’s win over Boston marked the first time since October that Don Nelson had them all in the rotation, and the result was that 103-99 win in which the tempo was much more moderate than has been the Warrior way much of the season, and also some tough work on the boards (they were only out-rebounded 44-43). Now those three can become an even bigger presence now that they have some minutes under their belts, and sanity will return to Golden State game flows. At the same time look for fatigue to be an issue for Ellis, who had a sizzling 37 points last night, but never left the floor. It was the second time in the past week he has played the full 48 minutes, and third time since December 12th, so look for both his ability to push the ball, and to finish, to be diminished.
The Lakers also bring weary legs, playing for the fourth time in five days, with a court change each time and two O.T. periods thrown in. Those O.T.’s were particularly painful to us, as an easy Under ticket at Sacramento morphed into a bitter defeat, the second time it has happened when playing the Lakers Under in a back-to-back setting in the month of December. But note how those O.T.’s confuse the markets. The Lakers have played seven back-to-back settings so far, going 6-0-1 to the Under in regulation, and falling a collective 98.5 points below the projections, for an average of 14.1 per game. That is a most significant performance pattern, but it got missed because three of those seven games were knotted at the end of regulation.
Phil Jackson has a tired team tonight, and absolutely does not want a track meet. Look for him to slow things down in the early stages, but for the Warriors to also be comfortable with that as well, and the heavy legs for many of the key scorers keep this from ever getting anywhere near the high Total.
LARRY NESS
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
PICK: Atlanta Hawks -2
The Cavs began a four-game road trip at Dallas on Nov 20 with a 102-95 loss to the Mavs. However, the team which thrived off its defense last year (Cavs allowed a league-low 91.4 PPG while holding opponents to 43.1 percent shooting), really turned up the defensive 'heat' in winning the final three games of that trip plus a home win over the Rockets on Nov 27. The Cavs began their current four-game winning streak by handing the Suns their first home loss of the season while holding them to just 91 points. They then held the Kings scoreless in overtime two nights later before "putting the handcuffs" on the Lakers and the Rockets. The Lakers were held to 36.5 percent on Christmas Day and then back in Cleveland, the Rockets shot just 32.9 percent, the lowest of any Cavaliers opponent this season. Atlanta sure knows something about Cleveland's defensive prowess, as the Hawks were held to 78.3 PPG and 38.5 percent shooting in the Eastern Conference semifinals (lost four straight by an average of 18.0 PPG), after losing three of four in the regular season (averaged just 94.0 PPG). The Cavs and Hawks play the next two nights, Tuesday in Atlanta and Wednesday in Cleveland. Atlanta should be poised for a great effort tonight. The Hawks are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS at home, scoring 111.3 PPG while allowing just 98.3. They've won their last four at home by an average margin of 21.0 PPG. A starting frontcourt of Smith (14.9-8.1), Horford (14.0-9.9) and Williams (10.2-5.2) plays with a backcourt that consists of Johnson (21.4-5.3-5.1) and Bibby (9.6-4.2 APG) as its starters plus Crawford (16.8) adding outstanding contributions of the bench. Atlanta's bench may be just as deep as Cleveland's. Big game for the Hawks and I'll take them here.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Detroit Pistons -5
Detroit is really struggling, having lost 7 in a row SU & ATS, but it is 8-6 SU & ATS at home, and I expect it to bounce back strong tonight against a Knicks team that is just 4-9 on the road this season and only 6-18 in its last 24 games in Detroit. Here's the key: Plays against any team, New York in this case, that has a +3 to -3 ppg differential, against a team with a -3 to -7 ppg differential, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 95 points or less points are 25-3 ATS the last 5 seasons (89.3%). The Pistons are due, and a visit from a Knicks team allowing 105 ppg on the road should be just what the doctor ordered to get a much needed win and cover. Lay the points.
Charley Sutton
I handed you an easy bowl game winner on Georgia last night and I’m handing you another winner today as I’m taking Temple over UCLA in the Eagle Bank Bowl.
The Owls come into this game having played strong football down the stretch, going 9-1 SU after starting the season 0-2 SU. Temple was also a strong money maker this season, going 8-3 ATS, including a 5-1 ATS mark on the road.
UCLA, on the other hand, was quite the opposite of the Owls. The Bruins started the season 3-0 SU and ATS, but won just 3 of its last 9 games SU and ATS.
Playing away from Pasadena, the Bruins went 2-3 ATS and lost 4 of 5 SU, getting outscored, on average, 21.2-19.5.
The Bruins are installed as about a 4 1/2 point favorite and will be in a position to lose outright against the Owls.
Take the points and take Temple in this one today.
3 ♦ TEMPLE
Pete Angelo
Wisconsin vs. Miami, Florida
These are a pair of physical football teams that love to win football games on the defensive side of the ball.
And something tells me we're going to see a tight, low-scoring first half - much like last night's Georgia-Texas A&M game.
Miami figures to set the tone with all the hype it brings into this game, and since it comes into this contest on a bevy of under runs, including 35-15 in non-conference play, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-1 in December contests, 6-1 against winning teams and 14-7 after an ATS-cover, I have to believe the Badgers will oblige with a physical game.
Though Wisconsin's numbers tend to favor the Over, you have to realize the oddsmakers generally have lower numbers on the Badgers' football games with the style of football they play.
This line is catered to Miami, no doubt.
Look for it to stay near the low 50s.
3♦ Hurricanes/Badgers UNDER
Michael Cannon
Minnesota +11 at SAN ANTONIO
I am now 53-36-3 with my last 92 free plays after yesterday’s winner on the Kings!
Take the points with the Timberwolves tonight on the road over the Spurs.
I know San Antonio is the much better team, but so do they. The Spurs haven’t been a great spread team at home, going 2-6 ATS in their last eight.
This also marks the Spurs’ third game in four nights, so fatigue will be a factor here.
Minnesota last played on Saturday so they bring the fresher legs into this matchup.
The Timberwolves are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 overall.
Take the points with Minnesota as they stay within the number.
3♦ MINNESOTA
King Creole
Temple / UCLA Under 45.5
First 5 Bowl games went 'OVER' the Total. NOW, each of the last SIX games have gone 'UNDER'. We'll play for that low-scoring pattern to continue on Tuesday afternoon / evening.
1. Two horrible QBs.
2. Two "straight-at-you" running games without any of the fancy spread option stuff.
3. No passing to the backs out of the backfield for either team, very few screens to the HBs, very few playmakers on the perimeter.
4. Two stout defenses.
5. Major trends pointing to the under.
6. Cold weather will have UCLA offensive guys go into a shell.... Not to mention the climatic cross-country shock of 60's / 70's to the 20's / 30's. Also, high winds of 18-20 MPH forecast for kickoff.
7. MAC vs BCS schools have stayed under at a high percentage.
8. Two of the top 30 red zone defenses in the country.
9. Two of the worst red zone offenses in the country.
BIG AL
Warriors at Lakers
Both teams played last night. Golden State is riding high off an emotional home upset of the Celtics last night, a close game. The Lakers have home court and limp home from a blowout loss at Phoenix. Coach Phil Jackson rested Kobe Bryant the final 7:50 when the game was deemed out of reach. The bench got a good workout, resting all the starters, and Jackson said he is hopeful Artest will rejoin the team against Golden State. A great spot for a bounce back win by the home team, Play the Lakers.
JACK JONES
Houston Rockets -5.5 over New Orleans Hornets
I'm not too worried about this Tracy McGrady situation since he has only played limited minutes in six games this season. Houston's recent struggles have more to do with tired legs than anything else, but now they return home with at least a day of rest after their blowout loss to Cleveland. That was also a game in which they could save some starters since they trailed by 15+ points for most of the second half.
This is still a Rockets team that is 8-4 at home, scoring 102.3 ppg against teams allowing 99.3 and holding teams to 99.3 compared to season averages of 100.4. New Orleans has been awful on the road this year, going 2-12 while scoring just 96.9 ppg and giving up 104.9 ppg. The edge here is with the home team, who I think gets back on track with a big win over the visiting Hornets.
SPORTS WAGERS
Indiana/CHICAGO under 194
This number seems awfully high for these two combatants, as neither can score and both need to play defense in order to win. The Pacers will go on a prolonged scoring drought for sure, maybe even two or three of them, as they’re virtually a collective bunch of poor shooters. Take Danny Granger out of the equation and the Bulls will force others besides Dunleavy to knock ‘em down. The Pacers can’t play good defense but will have to here for any chance whatsoever. Besides, the Bulls struggle offensively as well but at least they play hard and at the very least they play good defense. So, if this one does go over you can be damn sure the Bulls will cover because the Pacers are not capable of scoring 90 against this host. Indiana might even be hard-pressed to reach 85. A lot of good things offensively will have to happen for this one to go over and frankly, it’s hard to imagine that happening. Play: Indiana/Chicago under 194 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
Cleveland +1.23 over ATLANTA
Is there a team in the NBA playing better than the Cav’s right now? I think not. The Cav’s are winning with such ease it’s almost scary. They blew away the Rockets in its last game by 25 points two days after beating the Lakers by 15 in L.A. on Christmas day. They also went into Phoenix last week and barely broke a sweat in a 19-point win and that was the Suns only home loss of the year thus far. The Cav’s also have a huge psychological edge here, as they’ve beaten up on the Hawks game after game after game. In fact, they’ve beaten Atlanta six straight and the last four have all been by double-digits. Now the Cav’s are on fire and frankly, for the first meeting of the year between these two, the Hawks couldn’t have caught them at a worse time. Atlanta is good but they’re not in the same class as the Cav’s, especially right now and it’s also worth noting that the Hawks return home from a four-game trip tonight. Play: Cleveland +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
MISSISSIPPI –22½ Over Jacksonville State
I’m going to preface this wager by saying it’s never a good idea to consistently lay large numbers throughout the season but in this case the talent disparity between these two teams is too large to ignore. The sad truth for Jacksonville State is that if not for shrewd scheduling they would be winless this season, as two of their wins have come against Division 2 opponents West Alabama and Reinhardt, and the rest have come against awful Georgia Southern, Tennessee Tech, and Norfolk State. Their defensive numbers against a laughable schedule are gruesome, as they rank 8th from the bottom in defensive efficiency and allow opponents to shoot 50% from two. Mississippi is a tournament team this year and while they might not win it, a sweet sixteen birth is possible for this team. Ole Miss has three NBA prospects including potential lottery pick Jarvis Varnado, who averages an eye-popping five blocks a game. The best thing about this wager is that Mississippi State is coming off a loss to West Virginia and won’t coast through this one. They are the better team in every facet of the game and add the motivation factor and this one should get ugly very fast. Play: #590 Mississippi –22½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Liberty/CENTRAL FLORIDA under 130
Any time a team shoots under 30% from three and under 45% from two as the Liberty Flames do it’s going to get my attention. Liberty is 6-6 and played their last “real” game on December 5th against Coastal Carolina, which they lost 73-58. Liberty’s offense is atrocious but that doesn’t seal an under wager. What really peeks my attention is the fact that Liberty can actually defend a little bit, as opponents shoot 35% from three and score 98.5 points per 100 possessions against them. Central Florida is a team we have wagered on before and their strengths lie in their defense. They allow opponents to shoot 29.9% from three and 47.6% from two and have been victims of bad luck at the free throw line as opponents have shot 72% against them. Central Florida should have no problem winning this game and the game plan to do so is relatively simple. Keep Liberty at bay on offense and run the half court offense as efficiently as possible. With both these teams playing in character, this under should hit. Play: #564 Liberty/Central Florida under 130 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Frank Jordan
Wisconsin vs. Miami Florida
Play: Miami Florida -3.5
Now a days in college and pro football but more so in college it is all about passing the ball and scoring on offense. However the Big 10 where Wisconsin hails from is all about running the ball and defense. Miami of Florida has been on a downward spiral for some years, but seems to be headed back to the top of college football. Look for the Caines to beat up on the Badgers and win another bowl game. Play Miami of Florida
Erik Scheponik
Wisconsin vs. Miami Florida
Play: Miami Florida -3.5
Pretty good matchup here between two ranked 9-3 teams trying to build some momentum heading into what could be big seasons in 2010, as both return a lot of talent next year. Wisconsin is 1-2 SU/ATS in bowls under Brett Bielema who was mentioned briefly for the Notre Dame job before the Irish hired Brian Kelly. The Badgers feature an explosive offense which, for the 2nd team in 3 years under OC Paul Chryst, both passed and rushed for over 200 yards per game. They key off of bruising 250 lb. RB John Clay, but QB Scott Tolzein had a productive year under center, averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt. On defense, they are tough against the run, holding teams to only 2.9 yards per carry, but struggle against the pass, allowing 7.4 yards per pass. They really didn’t play a bad game all season, and despite losing by 18 at Ohio St., they outyarded the Buckeyes by 184 yards.
Miami stepped back into the national spotlight this season, as Randy Shannon’s hire of OC Mark Whipple, paid dividends, and the Hurricanes fielded their best offensive team in about 8 years. Soph QB Jacorry Harris made his fair share of mistakes (17 INT), but is a gutty leader, with uncanny posie and accuracy when he is on. The one thing I have noticed about Whipple, is that, despite a stable of talented RBs, he seems to be a little pass-happy at times, but that may not hurt them with Wisconsin’s weakness against the pass. The Canes when at their best this season were very good (destroyed conference champ Georgia Tech, blew out South Florida in their season finale), but like many young teams and young coaching staffs, suffered from inconsistency. They also lost numerous players from the two deep to injury throughout the course of the season, and although some of them remain out here, they will be the healthiest they have been in a long while, especially on defense.
Wisconsin’s schedule was nothing to write home about, as the only non-conference road game was at Hawaii in the season finale, and they did not play Penn St. in conference play this year. Even though Orlando is a nice holiday getaway, you have to wonder if their will travel as well as usual, as they were throttled in this same bowl last year by Florida St., after playing in 5 straight New Year’s Day Bowls. Miami is more talented and played a tougher schedule without some key faces that will be back today. This may be the kinda game we look at next season when Miami is a legit top 10 team, and be shocked that the Canes were available this cheap. UM weapons too much for Badgers, and in-state venue helps as well. Miami by 6
Wunderdog
Pacific vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Pacific +12.5
Oklahoma State is on fire this season having won 11 of 12. Their success has resulted in an inflated line here as no one wants to fade the Cowboys right now (85% of the public is on them here). But, Pacific has a great defense (allowing 61.5 points per game) and they have posted a 6-4 ATS mark in their last 10 games. Over the past two seasons, the Tigers have gone 13-5 ATS vs. good shooting teams (those shooting 45%+ from the field). They are also 27-10 ATS in their last 37 off an upset loss and 8-1 ATS the past two seasons after scoring 60 points or less in their previous game. I like Pacific coming off a bad loss here.