Allen Eastman
LSU (-7) over Texas Tech
LSU did not think that it was going to end up in this bowl game. But they also didn't think they would keep Les Miles. I think that Miles wants to prove to everyone that he is still the right man for the job and will do so with a blowout win over a Big 12 school here. The SEC has heard everyone say how down the league is this year. They will want to prove otherwise with a big bowl season. Texas Tech has struggled against good teams this year and limped to the finish line with just two wins since mid-October. Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Baylor each blew out Tech, and this team is overrated. LSU has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams from the Big 12, and I think that it is time for the Tigers to snap their four-game bowl ATS losing streak. The Red Raiders are just 2-6 ATS in neutral-site games, and I think LSU will bowl them over with their strong running game here.
Sam Martin
Nevada at Colorado St.
Prediction: Nevada
An unusual bowl game on Tuesday afternoon as a pair of teams from the same conference (Mountain West) square off in the Arizona Bowl. Nevada and Colorado State did not face each other in the regular season, but will play for bragging rights here. Colorado State is listed as the favorite, likely because of their better conference record, however we view Nevada as the better team and expect the Wolf Pack to win this game outright.
Despite a winning 5-3 conference record, the Rams actually gave up more points than they scored in conference play. Not so for the Wolf Pack, who were scored more than they allowed. And Nevada also played a far tougher non-conference schedule, including tough games against both Arizona and Texas A&M. Both teams have favorable matchups with their running offenses, but we give the big edge to Nevada in terms of overall defense. Also, final scores from comparative opponents (especially Utah State and Fresno State) lead us to believe Nevada truly is the better team.
Oskeim Sports
Nevada +3
Mountain West Conference Commissioner Craig Thompson was justifiably outraged by the fact that two teams in his conference were selected to play in the inaugural Arizona Bowl on December 29. Nevada enters postseason play having lost back-to-back road games to Utah State (31-27) and San Diego State (31-14), while the Rams arrive in Tucson riding a four game win streak.
While these teams appear to be heading in opposite directions, my math model only favors Colorado State by one point and the technical analysis strongly favors the Wolfpack. Nevada is 10-3 ATS in its last thirteen road games, 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games off a loss and 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
Mountain West Conference bowl favorites off a win are 1-7 ATS, while first-year head coaches are a money-burning 17-31-2 as bowl favorites. I like to invest on bowl underdogs that possess a solid ground attack, and that is precisely what we have with the Wolfpack. Nevada is averaging 206 rushing yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry behind two 1,000-yard rushers in James Butler (1,153) and Don Jackson (1,025).
The Wolfpack should move the chains at will on the ground against a porous Colorado State defense that is allowing 208 rushing yards per game at 4.9 yards per carry to a group of running backs that would average just 4.3 yards per carry against a mediocre front seven. The Rams' stop unit also yielded an alarming 219 rushing yards per game at 5.5 yards per carry on the road.
Nevada possesses a significant 0.7 yards per rush attempt advantage over the Rams' defense, but the teams are even overall from the line of scrimmage when the Wolfpack have the ball (Nevada is 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively; Colorado State is 0.4 yards per play worse than average defensively).
Colorado State will also have success on the ground behind a rushing attack that is 0.2 yards per carry better than average (4.8 yards per rush play against teams that would combine to allow 4.6 yards per rush play). The Rams' offense was really clicking on all cylinders in the final three games of the 2015 campaign, averaging 37.0 points and 455 total yards per game at 7.0 yards per play and 12.3 yards per point.
However, the prolonged layoff between its final game of the regular season and Tuesday's bowl game will only hurt Colorado State's offensive unit. With respect to special teams, Nevada place kicker Brent Zuzo was 14-of-16 (.875) on field goal attempts this season, including going 3-for-3 from 30-39 yards and 3-for-3 from 40-49 yards.
In contrast, Colorado State place kicker Wyatt Bryan was just 13-of-19 (.684) on his field goal attempts in 2015, including going just 2-for-5 from 40-49 yards. Nevada's punter averaged 42.3 yards per punt for a net of 37.8 yards (#63 in FBS), but the Rams' punting unit averaged 46.3 yards per punt with a net of 43.6 yards (#2 in FBS).
Nevada is averaging 21.9 yards per kick return (#43 in FBS) and 12.6 yards per punt return (#20 in FBS), while the Rams are averaging 25.2 yards per kick return (#17 in FBS) and 12.6 yards per punt return (#21 FBS). Despite the small edge in returning kicks, I still like Nevada to win the Arizona Bowl outright.
Wunderdog
Air Force vs. California
Pick: Over 68
This is a matchup of an unstoppable ground attack against an unstoppable air attack. Air Force's ground game ranks third nationally with 321.8 rushing yards per game, and on a 4-0 run OVER the total, including 7-3 OVER after a loss. The Falcons' triple-option offense has a star in tailback Jacobi Owens (1,009 yards, 5.4 yards per carry) and faces a terrible Cal defense. The Golden Bears rank #11 in the Pac-12, allowing 203.5 rushing yards per game. California is 22-7-1 OVER the total in non-conference games. Cal boasts an explosive aerial attack led by junior quarterback Jared Goff (37 TDs, 13 INTs, 4.252 yards), who is expected to enter the NFL draft soon. Cal is 7-3 OVER the total at neutral sites and this has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout.
Jim Feist
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 197
Cleveland has not been enjoying this long road trip, giving up 105 points the last game in a loss at Portland, its second straight defeat on the trip. This is the second of a back to back road spot, at Phoenix last night, and now they head to the thin Denver mountain air. Denver will try and run, as they like to do at home, and the over is 4-0 in their last four home contests. The over is 16-7 in the Nuggets last 23 games playing on one day of rest. Denver hasn't been playing much defense, allowing 122, 111, 130 and 101 points in four of the the last five games.
Bill Biles
Air Force vs. California
Play: Air Force +7
This will be a close hard fought game. Air force would like to avoid a 3 game losing streak. Both teams average over 20 points a game and Air Force defense is better at giving up points. I expect this one to be a high scoring game but the spread is to high in this one.
Ricky Tran
Texas Tech +7½
The Red Raiders closed the season strong by beating the Longhorns 48-45. They boast the nation's second highest scoring offense, averaging 46.6 points per game. They will play LSU in the Liberty Bowl, and the Tigers are favored to win by at least a touchdown. If this was a regular season game, I'd say that LSU should be a favorite. The Red Raiders though might be better equipped for a bowl game. LSU has failed to cover in each of it's last four bowl games, and it lost three of it's final four games of the season. Tigers quarterback Brandon Harris was picked off five times while throwing for just three TDs in those games. Kliff Kingsbury will have had over a month to come up with creative offensive schemes, and the Red Raiders have the personnel to execute. I'll take Texas Tech as a dog in this game, and wouldn't be surprised if they win outright!
DAVE COKIN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT WILLIAM & MARY
PLAY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN +6.5
This season hasn’t started off all that well for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are just 6-5, and that’s disappointing for an experienced team that went 23-9 last year. But there were mitigating circumstances as CMU struggled early, and that situation has now been rectified.
The Chips had to do without Chris Fowler for roughly the first month of the season, and that was a huge absence for a team that’s a little short when it comes to quality depth. The problem really showed up in a three games in three days tournament stretch in November as CMU lost a close game to Weber State and then didn’t have much left in the tank for the next two games. The Chippewas also gassed in an altitude game at BYU, where they played the Cougars even for the first half and then got rolled after the break.
But things are looking up for Central Michigan with a healthy Fowler now shaking off the rust and getting his game back together. This guy is a very solid guard and there’s no question this is a much better team with Fowler back running the point. He makes everyone else on the team better and I’m really expecting CMU to start rolling as MAC play approaches.
William & Mary is no soft touch. The Tribe figure to contend for CAA honors as they chase that elusive first-ever NCAA invite. Of course, that will have to come via the league tournament as W&M is not going to be garnering an at-large placement in the Big Dance. But they’re a good mid major entry and they want to keep playing well with the league opener on deck.
But I’ll have to disagree with the current ratings on these teams. William & Mary might well be right around the kenpom #79 grade, but Central Michigan with Fowler back in action is considerably better than #180. The oddsmakers recognize this as well as they have posted a number much lower than the current power ratings project. I completely agree with that assessment and feel Central Michigan is a team ready to take off. I can’t call this is a value play as the guys who post the lines aren’t being especially generous. But I’m putting the buy sign next to Central Michigan and I’ll take them with the points tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Saint Louis at Kansas State
Prediction: Kansas State
We have successfully played against SLU a couple of times this season, cashing both. Tonight, we'll go against them again. It didn't take long for Jim Crews to destroy what the late Rick Majerus had built in Arch City and the Billikens are getting out-coached, especially when it comes to second half adjustments. SLU has dropped three straight games and six of seven, including home losses to Southern Illinois, Indiana State, and UT-Martin. K-State rates a solid three buckets better than the two Mo-Valley squads, and I believe they'll play up to their abilities in this one. Justin Edwards is listed as questionable (foot) for Bruce Weber's squad. If Edwards plays, we get what he brings to the table for K-State. If he isn't able to give it a go, his absence will force others to pick up the slack, keeping the available troops focused throughout. SLU enters on a 7-22-1 ATS slide against teams with a winning SU record and they're 1-10 ATS following a SU loss. Kansas State will look to extend their in-season ATS record to 6-2-1.
Hollywood Sports
Air Force at California
Prediction: Over
Air Force (8-5) comes off a 27-24 loss at San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game with the Total set at 46.5 making it the 4 straight game they have played Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Falcons have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of December. Cal (7-5) comes off a 48-46 win over Arizona State and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 22-7-1 in their last 30 games against teams outside the Pac-12.
Rob Vinciletti
Nevada vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State -3
The Rams have controlled this Mountain West Conference series winning 10 of the last 12. Nevada has lost 4 of 5 with rest and 15 of 19 as a dog. Colorado St has won all 6 times as a favorite this season and has better numbers overall. Look for the Rams to get the win as a small favorite.
Freddy Wills
Nevada vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State -3
Two teams come out of the same conference to play each other in the bowl game. One team is clearly not happy that they are here while the other has not said much about it other than the fact that they are excited to be playing their 13th game of the season. I’ll back Colorado State here as I really don’t think Nevada cares based on their comments they wanted to be playing in the bowl game San Jose State got with players coming out and saying so. I would rather back a team that seems more disciplined at this point in the season. Colorado State also has the best player on the field in WR Rashad Higgins, and they also had the more challenging schedule in conference play with better results. Colorado State played Air Force, SD State, Boise, Utah State, and New Mexico, but Nevada missed out on Boise and Air Force otherwise this team wouldn’t even be in a bowl game. The stats in conference play also favor Colorado State who went 4-1 on the road this year compared to Nevada’s 2-4 record away from home. Colorado State even cleaned up their issues with TO margin late in the season and have the far better special teams ranking 21st in the county. I’ll take Colorado State who really doesn’t have any bad losses with the exception of their in state rival Colorado and that was only by 3. Nevada lost to Wyoming and UNLV enough said.
SPORTS WAGERS
Air Force +6½ over California
California (7-5) can make any offense look like the 2000 St. Louis Rams. We saw the Golden Bears transform the Texas Longhorns into a juggernaut on the offensive side of the ball, as Cal would give up 44 points to Texas in a one-point win settled by a missed extra point in Cal’s favor. In California’s most recent win against Arizona State, the Bears gave up 46 points to a far more efficient unit but nonetheless escaped by a score of 48-46. When you simply consider these two outcomes, the Golden Bears were a field goal away from a 5-7 season and would have subsequently missed a bowl game if the chips had fallen in that direction.
We are not going to employ the “happy to be here” angle with California, as this is a football team that jumped to a 5-0 start but nearly wiped out down the backstretch, winning just two of their final seven games. Over the span of this seven game slate, we highlighted the ASU win while the other was against the runt of the Pac-12 litter, Oregon State, where the Golden Bears cruised to a 54-24 victory in Berkeley. Defeating Oregon State is not much of an accolade, as the Beavers have been the punching bag of the Pac-12 as a whole this year and won just two games this season. Outside of the two results mentioned, the Bears have been exposed for their lackluster ghost of a defense. The Golden Bears rank 110th in total yards per game and 104th against the run. This news is extraordinarily haunting, as they face an Air Force team that lives and dies by the difficult to prepare for triple option attack.
Air Force ranks 2nd in the country in rushing with a remarkable average of 322.1 yards per game on the ground and have used this success to score an impressive 33.6 points per game. The Falcons figure to have little trouble running over, around and through the teeth of this California defense, who incidentally gives up 30.8 points per game. It is not an unforeseen scenario where the Falcons may simply outclass California. Sure, the Bears may have the offense to keep them in the game but they may have limited chances to get this unit on the field against a run specialist team as proficient as Air Force. Run the ball, use up clock, score points and limit possessions is not a unique strategy used by great running teams to upset overvalued offensive minded teams in the past. We never back a team priced in this range that we don’t trust to win outright. Given California’s recent struggles in bowl games and the fact that Sonny Dykes “Bear Raid” style of football has yet to yield any true dividends for this sluggish program, we’re calling Air Force outright but we’re not about to pass on these points.
Baylor +3½ over North Carolina
Baylor (9-3) originally opened as a slight favorite but an overreaction to a couple of announcements has reversed its role from the chalk to the dog. We will not buy in to the cynicism that caused steam to roll in on North Carolina upon the announcement of Baylor heading to the Russell Athletic Bowl without stellar wide receiver Corey Coleman or excellent running back Shock Linwood. Baylor has proven that they can win with whatever personnel is on the field and score at will regardless of the players featured in their packages. Coach Art Briles is a master strategist and Baylor’s win over Oklahoma State on the road was a prime indicator of this. With quarterback Chris Johnson filling in under center for an injured Seth Russell on the road in Stillwater, the Bears were able score 45 points to secure their ninth victory of the season. The Bears would fall the next week on the road at TCU, but overtime was required for the Horned Frogs to be rid of this outfit. A haunting loss to Texas in Baylor’s season finale led to further dissention among many analysts, as the Bears had lost three of their last four after starting off 8-0. However, we won’t be discouraged. The Bears have had many struggles on defense and were all the more prone for attrition once their offense hit a few bumps in the road.
Baylor has a system that is designed to give them a chance to win any game. When their offense is firing on all cylinders they are very difficult to stop, regardless of who is under center or what ensemble has been rolled into the game. We saw Seth Russell flourish in a quarterback role in 2014 when incumbent starter Bryce Petty went down with an injury of his own. Coach Briles employs a “next man up” approach to the game and the ultimate cause of Baylor’s demise is not its offense but its defensive exploits. The Bears have documented episodes of squandering leads but we’re all the more optimistic when they are facing a team that is vulnerable themselves to teams with offensive prowess.
North Carolina (11-2) is still argued by some to be the best team in the country, even after they lost to Clemson 45-37 in the ACC Championship. This proclamation is an absurdity. The score line in the ACC Championship portrays the affair as far closer than indicated. The Tigers led the Heels by as much 19 and they absolutely torched UNC’s defense for 608 yards in total. With the Tar Heels’ defense outright humiliated, the Bears have the instruments and blueprints to repeat success.
Statistically, the Bears have the best offense in the country. Baylor puts up video-game like numbers with 604.6 yards per game and they also account for 300.4 rushing yards per game. UNC is atrocious against the run, as its 111th ranking will attest to. The Bears may be without Linwood but their #2 back, Johnny Jefferson will likely feast on this porous Tar Heel front. Jefferson ran for 153 yards in Baylor’s most recent outing against Texas on December 5th and he is primed to have a big day at the office in this one. In the end, the public overreaction to Baylor’s injuries is ludicrous and provides us with a great opportunity to take back a tag on what should be the real favorite. The Bears are a team that simply knows how to execute and they’re positioned to attain success in a very favorable matchup against a North Carolina team that has been proven to be a paper tiger.
Big Al
Atlanta vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
At 16-16, the Rockets don't have a winning record this season, but find themselves favored over a red-hot Atlanta Hawks team which is 20-12, and has won six straight games. But we'll lay the points with James Harden & Co., as NBA teams this season that don't have a winning record are 94-53-1 ATS, including 15-2 ATS as favorites against .572 (or better) opposition.
Bruce Marshall
Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Miami Heat
Recent road wins at Atlanta and Brooklyn triggered a mini-revival from Miami, which won four of six thru Xmas Eve after slumping earlier in month. Meanwhile, Memphis marching onward and looking as if it will do enough to get back to the playoffs. Griz, however, had only covered 5 of first 15 at home thru Dec. 26, and Heat very curiously 8-1 SU in first nine vs. West foes while playing sub-.500 vs. the East! Matchup not quite as good for Grizzlies as vs. some of the "small-ball" foes Memphis has recently victimized.