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Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 29

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Jeff Benton

Your Tuesday freebie is the Air Force plus the touchdown spot against Cal.

Why not grab the points with the Air Force as they play in Fort Worth against the perennially underachieving Cal Golden Bears in the Armed Forces Bowl?

Cal is making their first bowl appearance under Sonny Dykes, and their first overall bowl since 2011 when they lost both straight up and against the spread to Texas.

The Golden Bears closed the year just 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games, and failed in 2 of their last 3 tries when listed as the chalk.

Air Force was able to cover in the dog role in the Mountain West title game against a pretty darn good San Diego State team, and Troy Calhoun's team sports a 8-3 against the spread ledger in the underdog role. Not only that, but the Force has been a great bowl play with a 4-1 spread mark dating back to 2009.

Points well worth the play today in Fort Worth.

3* AIR FORCE

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 2:59 pm
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Craig Davis

Your free play of the day is the LSU Tigers minus the points over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. At the time of this writing the Tigers are laying 7 points in Vegas and offshore.

It's kind of funny that here we are in late December and we're talking about the LSU Tigers and Les Miles as if there were never any speculation that he might lose his job.

My how things have changed as the boosters decided they're going to stick with Miles because they didn't want to buy him out... and now they have to get ready to face one of the best offenses the Big 12 has to offer.

Having said that, I'm not a big fan of the Big 12 this year. I'll just tell you right now that I probably won't be releasing a lot of Big 12 teams unless they're catching points.

I don't believe they play a lick of defense aside from maybe Oklahoma, and the offenses are a tad soft, in my opinion. Texas Tech has a great offense, but they simply can't stop the run and they don't have the personnel to match LSU man-for-man.

I expect Leonard Fournette to have a field day against this soft defense. Take the Tigers minus the points as your free play of the day.

4* LSU

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 2:59 pm
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Jeff Saad

Chicago at Arizona
Play: Chicago

Arizona is home but ranks 28th in the NHL in goals allowed. The Coyotes are 13-38 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record and the defending champs are in town. Chicago is 15th in goals scored, 5th on the power play and 9th in goals allowed, hungry for a win to end a two-game slide. The Blackhawks are 19-7 vs. the Pacific division and the road team is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings, which Chicago 6-1 here.

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 3:01 pm
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Mr. Vegas

Carolina at New Jersey
Play: New Jersey

Second straight road game for Carolina and its 7th road game in 10 contests. Carolina is 26th in the NHL in goals scored, 25th in goals allowed. The Hurricanes are 7-20 in their last 27 games playing on one day of rest. New Jersey is home and 7th in the league in goals allowed. The Devils are 35-16 in their last 51 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and the Hurricanes are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in New Jersey.

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 3:02 pm
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Larry Ness

SMU at Tulsa
Play: Tulsa

SMU was 15-3 in conference play in 2014-15, one game ahead of Tulsa in the American Athletic Conference regular-season standings last season. SMU swept the season series last year, which clinched the school’s first league title in 22 years. The Mustangs open league play tonight in Tulsa, after opening 11-0 in non-conference action, the best start in program history. It also marks the school’s longest winning streak since winning 20 straight in 1955-56. Larry Brown is back on the bench for SMU (was forced to sit out the first nine games by an NCAA-imposed suspension for academic fraud and unethical conduct) but SMU will be banned from post-season action this year, so winning the AAC regular season crown is the team’s primary goal. Back-to-back league titles would be SMU’s first since since a three-year run in the SWC from 1965-67.

It’s a “team effort” at SMU, with FIVE players averaging in double figures and two others at nine-plus. Reigning AAC Player of the Year guard Nic Moore averages 15.5 PPG and 5.3 APG. He’s joined in the starting backcourt by Milton (10.9) and Brown (9.6-5.5), while Frazier comes off the bench to score 12.8 PPG and add 4.7 RPG. The 6-7 Tolbert (13.5-10.5) and 6-8 Ben Moore (12.2-8.2) start up front, aided by the 6-9 Kennedy (9.6-5.5) off the bench. The Mustangs lead the nation in rebounding margin (plus-15.3) plus are shooting 52.4 percent from the floor (5th), including 42.9 percent on threes (9th).

The Golden Hurricane may have lost both meetings to SMU last season but Tulsa had won 13 of the 15 previous meetings from 2006-13. Tulsa is led by senior guards Harrison (17.9-5.2) and Woodward (16.0-5.), while six others chip in between 3.8 and 8.5 PPG. The 6-9 Wright (7.3-4.2) and the 6-7 Smith (7.0-4.6) are Tulsa’s best big men and WILL be severely tested by Tolbert, Ben Moore and Kennedy, However, don’t expect any ‘favors’ for Brown’s team in conference road games this year. I say the home dog ‘barks’ loudly in this one!

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 6:01 pm
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BRAD DIAMOND

Princeton vs. Miami
Play: Miami -16½

No doubt the Tigers out of the Ivy league are a challenging unit showing 7-3 SU, but their SOS is lacking and will need to play one possession at a time to keep this close. The Hurricanes have come out on fire, despite their lack of rebounding, 10-1 SU (8-2 ATS)…and covering nicely. They have won 5 straight, covering 4-of-5 defeating LaSalle, Charleston, Florida, Charlotte and Nebraska…So, I’ll take my chances laying the 16-1/2 vs. traveling Princeton who is 5-12 ATS off a SU win.

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 6:02 pm
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JIMMY BOYD

Robert Morris vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -17½

I don't typically like laying this many points, but I think there's a lot of value here with the Bulldogs at this price. Robert Morris is awful and are just 2-10 on the season. The Colonials are lucky to have even won a game, as their two wins against Missouri Valley State and Lehigh came by 3-points or less. What really stands out to me is that Robert Morris lost by 62 points at Cincinnati. Georgia isn't quite as good as the Bearcats, but certainly strong enough to win here by at least 20 points.

The Bulldogs come into this game playing extremely well, as they knocked off Georgia Tech by 14 and Clemson by 23 in their last two games. Keep in mind they defeated Oakland at home 86-82, who beat the Colonials by 18 points on the road. Robert Morris hasn't played a game since 12/19, which I think only hurts them, as the long layoff isn't going to help them keep it competitive against a team like Georgia.

The Bulldogs on the other hand are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days, 18-7 ATS in their last 25 off back-to-back home wins by 10 or more points and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Robert Morris on the other hand is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games.

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 6:02 pm
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CHASE DIAMOND

Central Michigan vs. William & Mary
Play: Central Michigan +6

This game features the 6-5 Central Michigan at the 7-3 William & Mary. Central Michigan has a nice team but they have stumbled coming out of the gate they are coming off a win over Howard university and I think they are ready to make a little run now that Chris Fowler is back and ready to go. Vegas is off 6 points is way to much for W&M to be laying here but the public agrees as 58% are laying on Central Michigan. We will follow the public money with a play on Central Michigan plus the points.

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Posted : December 29, 2015 6:04 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

Carolina +125 over NEW JERSEY

OT included. The Devils have one victory over their last five games, which occurred in Detroit when they scored four times on just 17 shots. In the Devils other four games over that span, they scored one goal in each game. In fact, the Devils have scored one goal or less in five of their past seven games. That should come as no surprise because New Jersey had 22 shots on net or less in all five of those games. They’ll now play the team that gives up the least amount of shots on net in the league so it would be unreasonable to expect the Devils to create much of anything here in terms of offense. It doesn’t help the Devils either that the ‘Canes have taken the fewest minor penalties in the league by a wide margin.

We have been dipping into this Carolina well all season long and we’re not about to jump ship now that the results are coming. The Hurricanes are coming off a 2-1 victory in Chicago. They outplayed the Blackhawks, just like they outplay almost every team they face. Carolina has won seven of its last 11 games and has picked up points in eight of those. They have allowed two goals or less in five straight. In recent games against Dallas, Washington and Chicago, they were the better team on the ice in all three. The Hurricanes defense is among the best in the league and now they’re offense is starting to produce. More importantly, however, is that Carolina’s hard work, its attention to details and its outstanding structured system is paying dividends and suddenly this team is back in the playoff picture with a long way to go. The day we refuse to back this team in its current form against a team that might get 15 shots on net is the day we’ll hang ‘em up.

Ottawa +155 over BOSTON

OT included. Despite outshooting the Sen+155ators on Sunday, 39-22, the Bruins were only able to get one puck past Craig Anderson in a 3-1 loss. Obviously the Bruins deserved a better fate but that doesn’t mean they are going to win here. Goaltending is the difference in dozens of games every month. The team that plays better doesn’t always win but the goaltender that does almost always wins. Anderson absolutely has a chance for another great game and we trust that Ottawa will play better here than they did on Sunday. Boston is also without David Kreji and Tony Krug. What we especially like is that Boston’s next game is against the Canadiens at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro in this year’s Winter Classic on Friday afternoon beginning at 1:00 PM EST. That game has to be on the forefront of everyone’s mind. There will be ticket requests from friends and family. The game will be seen nationwide in Canada on CBC and in the U.S. on NBC. It’s not a hockey game; it’s an event or a spectacle and every single player on the B’s want to play their best against their most hated rival. Last year’s host of the Classic, Washington, lost 4-3 to the Islanders in their last game before the event. The year before that, the host Red Wings lost to Nashville, 6-4 in their last game before the event. If there ever was a look-ahead game, this would be it but even if the B’s put forth a strong and focused effort, it guarantees nothing.

This is the perfect opportunity for the Senators to get going. Ottawa is too talented to get so badly outplayed on too many occasions this season. The Sens are 18-18 but they have been outshot 79-38 over their past two games. That’s not Senators hockey. Senators hockey is all about being relentless in the offensive end and creating opportunities. They have the best offensive defensemen in the league and they have a slew of snipers to bury the puck. The Sens have gotten away from that a little bit over the past couple of weeks. With a game under their belt after the break and with a great opportunity to string together some wins, Ottawa offers up tremendous value here in this favorable scheduling spot. They also have an edge in net, which is always worth something.

Montreal +140 over FLORIDA

OT included. After reeling off six wins in a row, Florida found itself in first place in the East, one point ahead of the Canadiens prior to last night. Montreal defeated Tampa last night to leapfrog back over the Panthers for first by one-point so this is now a showdown for first in the East. While the Panthers are solid, they are not a team that is worthy of being in first place so expect some regression over the next few games. Florida is just not dominating enough to sustain winning at its current pace. During their six-game winning streak, Florida was outshot by the Islanders, 34-16 and won 5-1. In a 2-0 win over Carolina, they were outshot 24-18. Two other victories occurred in OT against Ottawa and Vancouver with the Canucks playing their fifth road game in seven days. All of a sudden, the Panthers are grabbing some headlines in NHL circles because out of nowhere, they took over first place and that creates interest. Being overvalued for the first time in a very long time, we’re selling.

We love playing on teams that just snapped a long losing streak. Montreal put forth a rock-solid effort last night in Tampa in a 4-3 SO victory. What was especially impressive is that the Habs fell behind late in the third when the Bolts scored two quick goals to take a 3-2 lead. Instead of hanging their heads low, the Canadiens dug down even deeper and tied the game up very quickly. That victory changes the psyche of the entire team. A second victory after a prolonged losing streak is common. Yesterday morning, Montreal traded for Ben Scrivens and he’ll make his first start in a Habs uniform here. It’s a rejuvenation of sorts for Scrivens and we expect Montreal to do their best to protect their newest teammate. Lastly, Florida is populated by literally thousands of French Canadians this time of year. In Montreal, hockey is not just a sport, it’s a way of life and we assure you that the arena in Sunrise will be packed with Habs’ fans. That’s another boost of energy that the Habs can feed off of.

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 6:07 pm
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Harry Bondi

AIR FORCE (+7) over California

As we wrote in our 5 Ways to WIN BIG Betting the Bowl Games article, service academies are typically a great bet in the bowl games and that led us to releasing Navy over Pittsburgh yesterday for another "Steam Team" winner. Today we'll go with the military again and grab the points with Air Force. Troy Calhoun’s option offense ranked second in the country in rushing, piling up 322 yards per game, and running the ball is the best defense against the high-powered Cal offense because it will keep the Bears off the field. In fact, the Bears were 2-6 ATS this year when allowing 150 yards or more on the ground and were also 2-6 ATS this season against teams with a winning record, while the Fly Boys went a profitable 4-1 ATS as an underdog. Take the points!

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 6:08 pm
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Alex Smith

Montreal at Florida
Play: Florida -1.5

The top two clubs in the Atlantic Division hook-up on Tuesday night as the Florida Panthers host the Montreal Canadiens. Things have spiraled out of control for Les Habitants, who had lost 11 of their last 13 games before a big 4-3 comeback shootout victory over rival Tampa Bay. Montreal has struggled at both ends of the ice with the offense scoring two or fewer goals in 12 of their last 14 contests. The injury to starting goalie Carey Price has forced the Habs to call upon rookie Mike Condon and backup Dustin Tokarski. Condon has lost seven of his last eight starts while Tokarski has dropped three of his last four. One bright spot for the Habs is that forward Brendan Gallagher could return to action soon. The 23-year-old has missed over a month of action with a pair of broken fingers that required surgery. As for the Panthers, they’ve won five straight games and are on a 10-3 run in December. They have been winning games with a balanced cast of offensive contributors led by Reilly Smith's 11 goals, along with 10 tallies from young defenseman Aaron Eckblad and veteran winger Jaromir Jagr. And veteran Roberto Luongo has been excellent going 7-3 in his last 10 starts with a 1.88 gaa and a .925 save pct. While the Canadiens have dominated this series going 7-2-1 in their last 10 meetings, this is a big shift of power within the division and a very important game for the Panthers. Montreal is in the second game of a back-to-back where they have lost three straight, and have lost in six consecutive games by two or more goals.

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 6:22 pm
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Wunderdog

Detroit vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Winnipeg -130

Winnipeg struggles on the road, but they are outstanding at home (10-5-1). Winnipeg is #12 in the NHL in goals scored, winning seven of its last nine games at home while averaging 3.44 goals. They come off a 1-0 win over Pittsburgh as goalie Connor Hellebuyck made 30 saves. Hellebuyck has been superb at home for the Jets, going 5-1-0 with a 1.98 goals-against average in six games. He's 6-3-0 with 2.12 goals against average in nine contests since being recalled from Manitoba. He faces a Detroit team playing the end of a three-game road trip, while dropping six of nine. Defense has been a problem, allowing 15 goals the last five contests after falling 3-1 at Minnesota on Monday. And the Red Wings are 7-16 on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 6:23 pm
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Chip Chirimbes

Hawks at Rockets
Play: Hawks +3

Well, it appears Houston coach Bernie Bickerstaff has finally caught on to what's going on with the Rockets. After pasting the Spurs on Christmas day they were slugged by New Orleans the next time out and remain inconsistent. Bickerstaff blasted his team's focus and priorities without actually saying what he meant 'heart.' James Hardin is day-dreaming about his future in a reality show while Dwight Howard is just sleep-walking through the season so far. Atlanta meanwhile comes off a loss at Indiana where the committed a season high 22 turnovers but play tougher defense then the Rockets who their coach claims is 'disrespecting the game.' Do you believe it will have a positive effect on them...I don't!

Chip Chirimbes's Featured Package

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 7:05 pm
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Greg Shaker

Jacksonville St. / Alabama Over 131

Handicapping CBB Totals does not have to be Hard Business. It is simply finding numbers that are Off the Mark. It does not take any kind of wacko system work in most cases. Yes there are some important things to keep in mind like Pace, OE and DE and yes some situations might lend itself to a more intense game which could produce lower than usual scoring. In this case we have a number that is set as low as it is because the Visitors are not only a poor shooting team, but they also have strong UNDER Trends when they travel. (Bettors Love Trendz) But the real story here is the fact that this game most likely is not going to be in doubt toward the end and that most always creates some scoring frenzies. Alabama does have rebounding issues but they should easily control the boards tonight and they will create many opps to get to the Free Throw stripe. Jax State has found a way most recently to get some Open 3's and that has been paying dividends. The Best reason to play this one though is the Number itself, which is much lower than either of these teams have been honored with most of the time this season. Our number is much higher in fact and the reason why you can play it all the way to 134.5 for 2%..

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 9:16 pm
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Brad Wilton

Free play for Tuesday is Miami-Florida minus the big number over Princeton.

Both schools on court for the first time since the 22nd when both were able to notch victories.

The Tigers tamed Bucknell, 89-77 for their 7th win in 10 games this season, while the Hurricanes rocked La Salle like a hurricane, 95-49!

Miami has quietly placed themselves in the Top-20 in the nation, and they have reeled off 4 straight wins and covers. All 4 coming by double-digit margins!

The 'Canes are 4-1 against the spread on their home floor, and have now covered 7 of their last 8 on their home court, and 12 of their last 14 overall since last season.

Princeton's two biggest tests this year on the road have come against Maryland and St. Joe's, and they have dropped both straight up and against the spread.

Blowout tonight in the making.

Take Miami.

4* MIAMI-FLORIDA

 
Posted : December 29, 2015 9:17 pm
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