Gabriel DuPont
Tonight's free play: Atlanta at HOUSTON (-2')
The STORYLINE in this game today - The strange and erratic Houston Rockets might be the most unpredictable team in the league. You really never know what this team will do. Tonight, I'm taking a shot with my free play, and playing them at home against the Atlanta Hawks.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is on Houston's motivation. The Rockets will look at this as a must-win situation, as they have a chance to get back on track after losing a close one in New Orleans, 110-108, on Saturday. Houston has a chance to get back above .500 as 2016 rolls around, and it would be a good time to win since the Warriors arrive for New Years Eve.
BOTTOM LINE is - Atlanta is in after losing in Indiana tonight. It was the first of three straight road games. The Hawks had to play a physical game last night and now will be faced with a different tempo. It's more like what the Hawks like, but they'll be tired.
3* HOUSTON
DAVE PRICE
George Washington -5
I really like this George Washington team that is off to a 10-2 start this season and capable of beating anyone in the country. The Colonials proved that with their 73-68 win over Virginia, handing the Cavaliers their only loss this year. They only lost by 5 to Cincinnati for one of their losses, and then played horrible in a 61-82 loss at DePaul in their last game a week ago. That loss will have them motivated to come back with a big effort tonight against UCF. UCF is just 6-4 on the season with a 5-point win over Bethune-Cookman last time out. This is a team that has also lost to UC-Irvine, Miami Ohio and Detroit. UCF doesn't have a quality win yet this year, and it is without its best player in BJ Taylor. The Colonials are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Cavs vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 194
As stated many times before, the odds makers don't make many mistakes and it is highly doubtful that this was one today. However, the whole world seemed to start pounding the under when this total opened up at a 197. Now the the total is down to as low as a 194 in some spots and that makes the over well worth a look in this one. A big key here is tired legs for the defense for each of these teams. Even though Denver was off last night this is part of a stretch of four games in five nights for them. The Nuggets have to pace themselves in terms of defensive intensity. The Cavaliers did play last night and tonight will now be their fourth game in five nights. Look for plenty of open shots in this one as it unlikely that there will be a tremendous amount of hustle on the defensive end considering the situation. Even though the Cavs have been staying under in many of their recent games, this 4th game in 5 nights situation is a unique one. Also, the Cavaliers are 3-1 to the over against Northwest Division opponents this season. Denver is 5-2 to the over when they are off of a divisional game and the Nuggets are also 9-4 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. Look for the Nuggets to go over the total for the 9th time in their last 13 games overall.
BRANDON LEE
Wake Forest +7
LSU might have the best pro prospect in the country in Ben Simmons, but the team as a whole is not very good. Due to all the attention that Simmons receives, the Tigers are vastly overrated and come in just 3-6 ATS. I believe LSU is way overvalued against the Demon Decons, due to having won 3 straight against bad competition in Gardner Webb, Oral Roberts and American. Their other 4 wins this season have come against the likes of North Florida, South Alabama, Kennesaw State and McNeese State, so we have yet to see the Tigers beat a legit opponent. I'll gladly take the points here with Wake Forest, but wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright.