Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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RICE +7 over Mississippi StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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As Harry Bondi wrote in his "5 Keys to Beating the Bowl Games,", motivation is crucial to these match-ups and in this case we have a scrappy underdog in Rice that's taking on a Mississippi State team that really isn't excited to be here. The Bulldogs played one of the toughest schedules in the country, taking on all of the SEC powers, so a date with Rice in the Liberty Bowl on New Year's Eve Day isn't exactly the kind of game that is going to get the juices flowing. Rice, meanwhile, is the kind of program that's excited to play in any bowl game. The Owls are also red-hot as they come in with nine wins in their last 10 games, highlighted by a 41-24 upset victory over Marshall in the Conference USA Championship Game. Mississippi State Head Coach Dan Mullen has made a living beating up on bad teams, but is a dismal 2-24 straight-up and 8-18 against the spread against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better. Take the generous points with the more motivated and more focused underdog.
Carlos Salazar
Duke vs Texas A&M
Play: Duke +13
Grab the points in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl games as the dog Duke offers great value on Tuesday night. Texas A&M's stars already have their heads into the NFL and won't show up big in this bowl game.
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UCLA -7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Virginia Tech has traditionally been a good team with a lot of time to prepare and they will need it today when they take on UCLA. Jim Mora has signed a new extension with the bruins, so they have a comfort that he's there for the long-term. Without those distractions, we fully expect to see a great Bruin effort this afternoon. Hokies QB Logan Thomas is going to have to be better than he has been in his first two bowl appearances, where he has completed just 34 of 67 passes for 407 yards with one touchdown and three picks. UCLA is 7-0 ATS when playing against winning teams over the last 2 seasons. Here's how we see the game...UCLA doesn't respect the Va tech passing attack at all, which will force Thomas to beat them throwing the ball, which he clearly hasn't shown he can do. On the other side of the ball, UCLA can hit you will Hundley throwing and running the ball, as well as Jack hitting big runs. Too many weapons for an average Hokie team, even with a month to prepare. Make sure you buy this down to 7 as the line is rising....don't get hooked!
Mike RoseFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas A&M vs. DukeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Duke +13FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Aggies expected to be partaking in bigger and better in the second year of the Manziel era after going to the Cotton Bowl last season. The Chick-Fil-a is certainly a step down, so one must take into account the Aggies desire to actually partake in this one. That’s hardly the case for the Dookies who will be gunning to end its bowl drought in the worst of ways. While Duke is more known for its heroics on the hardwood, don’t fool yourself into thinking this club doesn’t belong here. Though the Aggies went 8-1 SU in the favorite roll this season, they went a bankroll depleting 3-6 ATS in those games entirely due to the defense keeping the opposition in all games. On the flipside, the Blue Devils went 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS when installed in the underdog role per the closing betting odds, so they’ll enter this bowl game hungry to win and comfortable in the role the oddsmakers have dictated for them. Two key parameters side with Duke in this game for me – the better overall defense and true desire to partake in this game. With them showing the ability to hang when everyone counted them out all season, I’ll gladly back them here and take all those points!
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Atlanta at BostonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Atlanta +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The NBA's Eastern Conference is a disaster. There are just three teams with a winning record on the season, so there is likely to be a lot of sub-.500 playoffs teams in the mix. Atlanta is one of the three over .500, and the Hawks have been above the mediocre competition thus far. Boston is just 13-17 on the season, and just .500 at home. They are also without a bona fide star with Rondo on the sidelines. That has forced a few players to step up into bigger roles than they were made for. The Hawks have stood tall on a day of rest where they are 14-3 ATS in their last 17, and have stepped up defensively after allowing 100+ in their previous game at 12-5 ATS in their last 17. Back the Hawks.
Steve Janus
Raptors/Bulls Under 186
These two teams faced off in Chicago back on Dec. 14. Toronto won that game 99-77 for a combined score of 176 points, easily finishing under the posted total of 187. The Bulls are going to be extremely motivated to not allow the Raptors to beat them twice on their home floor. Look for the Bulls to make a point of not allowing the Raptors offense to come anywhere close to 100-points. With Chicago's limitations on offense, all signs point to another low-scoring affair between these two teams. Each of the last three meetings in the series have gone UNDER the total and all three have seen a combined score of 185 or less. The UNDER is 13-6 in the Bulls last 19 games when playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back, 6-0 in their last 6 home games and 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 vs the Central division.
Jeff Alexander
Portland Trailblazers +5½
The Thunder are being overvalued because Portland has lost two in a row and is playing without a day of rest. But the Trailblazers haven't had any trouble getting up for division opponents. They won the first meeting of the season against Oklahoma City when the Thunder still had Russell Westbrook and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus Northwest division foes. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Thunder buried Houston last time out but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points.
Doug Upstone
Memphis vs. South Florida
Play: South Florida +8
On New Year's Eve, Play On home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like South Florida, in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (65-69 percent), in a contest involving two clubs committing 14.5 or fewer turnovers. With the Bulls and Memphis having similar characteristics in a couple of ways, this game turns out to be closer than anticipated and home team is on a 33-9 ATS move, losing by an average of 2.5 points.
Dave Price
Brooklyn Nets +12
You want to fade home favorites of 10 points or more that average 103.0 points per game or more when they are matched up against a team that is off a double-digit defeat. Doing so has produced a 127-78 ATS mark since 1996. You also want to back double-digit road underdogs that have a losing record if they check in off a road loss of 10 points or more. That's because doing so has produced a 101-60 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. The Spurs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Nets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Penn State +6
The Penn State Nittany Lions are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. I believe they come out and prove that tonight by giving Michigan State a run for its money in the Big Ten opener for both teams.
The key is that Penn State returned four starters from last season, while also getting back its best player in Tim Frazier from injury. Frazier has been his old self, averaging 18.2 points and 7.5 assists per game to lead the way.
Frazier is also getting a ton of help from D.J. Newbill (18.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Ross Travis (11.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Brandon Taylor (10.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg). These four have led Penn State to an impressive 9-4 start this season.
Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 60 points or less against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Nittany Lions are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Spartans are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Penn State Tuesday.
Andre Gomes
Boston Celtics -3
Since Al Horford got injured, Atlanta's offense started being super perimeter based. On their last game at Orlando, Atlanta had a volume of 24% on pick and roll ball handler plays and 27% on spot ups. However, the Hawks are expected to find some problems today against Boston's decent perimeter defense that is #14 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #4 on spot up defense.
On the other hand, Boston's offense is using a lot of pick and roll ball handler plays lately as well. However, they also keep having a nice post up, as Boston has a quite big backcourt. These are areas where Atlanta's defense is struggling. The aggressiveness of Boston's guards will be a huge problem for Atlanta's backcourt defense, as both Louis Williams and Kyle Korver won't be able to prevent the Celtics's dribble penetrations
With the Hawks being so perimeter oriented and the Celtics having some nice edges on offense for today, I believe Boston will be able to pick up a comfortable win today, as they are also #5 in the league on 3pts defense with 33.8% allowed. Therefore, I'm taking Boston today.
Frank Jordan
Mississippi St vs. Rice
Play: Rice +7.5
Analysis: Mississippi State finished just 6-6 on the year and under .500 in the SEC at 3-5 as they take on Rice in the Autozone Liberty Bowl. Rice finished with a 10-3 record and went 7-1 in Conference USA winning that conference. Rice started out losing two of their first three games, but came on strong after that winning nine of 10 including their last four games. The offense stepped it up with six 30+ point performances four 40+ and even one in the 50s. Look for Rice to keep the ball on the ground as they were 15th in the country with 240 yards on the ground per game and use that for ball control to win the game.
Bryan Power
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Portland vs. Oklahoma City
Pick: Portland
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Like a lot of people, I never believed the Blazers red hot start was sustainable over the long haul. Last night's outright loss in New Orleans was the seventh consecutive game where they failed to cover the spread as well as their second consecutive straight up loss. But they are a good value tonight taking points in OKC.
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This is actually the first time all season where Portland is coming off back to back losses. Those losses, to New Orleans and Miami, have come by a combined three points. Of the four times the team has lost this month, three of them have come by two points or less, which is pretty incredible. Against the Heat, they lost on a last second Chris Bosh three-pointer. It was the same thing last night courtesy of Tyreke Evans of the Pelicans. Considering this is the highest scoring team in the league at over 108 points per game, getting 5,5 points seems like a real bonus.
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Meanwhile, this will be the third game for the Thunder after learning PG Russell Westbrook would be missing extended time. The last couldn't have gone much better as they blew out Houston at home, 117-86. But they ARE going to miss Westbrook moving forward. They didn't cover Friday in Charlotte, a game where I went against them, as they have now alternated ATS wins and losses over their last eight contests. They shot 57.3% from the floor against Houston, which probably can't be duplicated again here tonight. Take the points.
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Pittsburgh -½ +131 over NEW JERSEYSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. We’re usually not in favor of spotting a half puck on the road but goaltending is the single most determining factor in the outcome of games. Without good goaltending winning is a terrible uphill battle. We see it night in and night out that the team that gets the better goaltending wins at an extremely high rate. The Devils are a damn good team and they would be a serious threat every time they played if they used Cory Schneider as their #1 netminder but instead they continue to use the slower, older and vastly inferior Martin Brodeur far too often. In five of his last eight games, Brodeur has posted save percentages of .818, .783, .875, .824 and .818. Now he has to deal with some of the best and hardworking forwards in the NHL.
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We can also look at some betting props to confirm that there is value in playing the Penguins here. In NHL team totals, the Penguins team total is 2½ over -124, suggesting they are favored to score three or more goals here. The Devils team total is 2½ under -123, suggesting the Devils are favored to score two or less. The Penguins are 8-0 versus the Metropolitan Division this season while the Devils are 0-5 when playing on two days rest with Martin Brodeur in net. Both apply here.
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Columbus +141 over COLORADOFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Colorado has just four wins over its past 13 games. They’ve also dropped four in a row while allowing 45, 37, 37 and 39 shots on net respectively over those four games. The Avs defense has been running around in their own end, often looking lost out there. The Avs have allowed 17 goals against over their past four games. The Valanche are going backwards and will now be without one of its best all-around players in P.A Parenteau, who is strong defensively and is fourth on the team with 24 points.
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The Blue Jackets are in every game these days. Columbus has won eight of their past 14 games with five of those six losses occurring by one goal. In seven of their past nine games, the Jackets have scored three goals or more and they’ve scored four or more in five of those. Despite losing their last game in Pittsburgh, the Jackets played another solid game with a constant fore-check that kept the Penguins hemmed in their own end for long stretches at a time. The Jackets aggressive fore-check and constant pressuring of the opposition’s defense is a style the Avalanche has difficulty with. The Jackets have taken four of the past five games from Colorado and they’ve also won two straight on the road. This is an important game for the Jackets, as they embark on a four game trip beginning here and will be quite intent on setting the tone for this important stretch.
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ANAHEIM -½ +141 over San JoseFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. Perhaps we erred when choosing the Ducks to defeat the Sharks in San Jose on Sunday night. The Sharks have been near unbeatable at home but in our defense, the Ducks were in peak form. That hasn’t changed and we’re thrilled to come right back on them here. San Jose is not the same animal on the road. It has lost five of their past seven road games and it rarely plays well in Anaheim. Antti Niemi’s numbers are also much better at home than on the road and in that regard the Ducks have an edge in net too.
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The Ducks are an incredible 14-0-2 at home. Jonas Hiller will be in net today and all he’s done lately is win eight in a row while posting a 1.84 GAA. The home team has won seven of the past eight in this series and the Ducks have never been as good at home as they are right now. On New Year’s Eve in Anaheim in front of a packed house, that home dominance figures to continue.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Texas A&M -13 over Duke: I can't see how Manzeil just doesn't go off in this one. This game is another chance for him to show the NFL scouts what he can do and he will be facing a Duke defense hat is not all the good, as they showed in giving up 45 points to FSU in the ACC Title game. Duke was totally outmatched in that game and I feel they are here as well. The Aggies scored in bunches vs some tough SEC defenses and should have no problems putting up big points in this one. The Duke offense has surprising this year and we know the Aggie defense is not very good, but still I don't expect Duke to score enough for this one to be kept within 2 TD's. Aggies by 21+ here.