Dave Cokin
Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons
Pick: Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are going pretty well right now and the reason is their bench play, which has been outstanding. Look for the deeper Detroit side to wear down the Kings today. I'll spot the number with the Pistons this time.
Jim Feist
Clippers at Nuggets
Pick: Under
A big game with LA bringing its winning streak to Denver, so the home town fans will be fired up. The LA Clippers are playing great defense this season and the under is 20-8 in Clippers last 28 vs. a team with a winning record while the under is 9-3 in the Nuggets last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. This will have a playoff atmosphere, which will mean more defense then an ordinary regular season contest, and note that the under is 19-9 in the last 28 meetings. Play the Clippers/Nuggets under the total.
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Purdue +17FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Purdue won its final 3 games to finish 6-6 and become Bowl eligible. None of its 6 wins was against a team that is in a Bowl, one of 7 teams in this season's field to go winless against fellow Bowlers. They did lose 4 games to other Bowl teams. Purdue is the largest of any Bowl underdog, getting 17 points from Oklahoma State at press time. 10 of Okie State's dozen games were against Bowlers and the Cowboys were 5-5 in those games (6-4 ATS). OSU has one of the most potent offenses in the nation, averaging 537 ypg (#5). The also have a permissive defense, allowing 452 ypg (#95). Purdue is below average on both sides of the football with rankings between #60 and #80 in many categories. This game may be most attractive from a Totals standpoint. Both teams played 7 OVERs and 4 UNDERs this season. This game should feature lots of passing as Purdue faces OSU's #120 pass defense (304 ypg) while its own pass defense will face the Cowboys' #6 pass offense (338 ypg). Both teams appear happy to be playing on New Years Day and that should make for true efforts from both teams. Purdue did score at least 48 points 4 times this season, albeit against non Bowl teams. But that shows the potential is there and they will be facing a below average defense. It's clear that Oklahoma State is the vastly better team but laying such a huge number can be dangerous, especially with a motivated underdog. Thus the preference is to take the generous points in what should be an entertaining, wide open game.
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Mississippi State + over Northwestern
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Northwestern is generally an attractive underdog but there is not much value here with the Wildcats going 11-1 ATS and quietly 9-3 S/U on the year. Northwestern did beat Syracuse and Vanderbilt early in the season, wins that look even better at the end of the year but the Big Ten wins were underwhelming with only a narrow win at Michigan State registering as a quality victory and that was a game where the Wildcats were soundly out-gained. Mississippi State opened the year 7-0 but the season came crashing down with losses in four of the final five games of the year. Mississippi State actually did not beat a single team that will be playing in a bowl game and in the four losses they allowed at least 37 points in each game. These teams have pretty similar statistics with Mississippi State a bit better on offense and Northwestern a bit better on defense on a yards-per-play basis. The differences in the schedules could account for some of those disparities as well. Mississippi State Tyler Russell was injured in the final regular season game but he is likely to play this week. Pat Fitzgerald is 0-4 in bowl games since taking over as head coach though the Wildcats are making a fifth straight bowl appearance and they have been at least a 7-point underdog in each of those four games, twice losing in overtime. This is a great opportunity for Northwestern to break that streak and this is a well prepared team that has had ample time to get ready for this game. Mississippi State crushed Michigan in the Gator Bowl two years ago and was a bowl winner last season as Coach Mullen is 2-0 in bowl games so he should have the Bulldogs ready even after an underwhelming season. Northwestern is a great team in the underdog role but they don't often actually win those games and this is just not enough points to back the Big Ten vs. the SEC.
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is at 62-38-2, and tonight I look to improve that mark with the Connecticut Huskies getting it done over the Marquette Golden Eagles, in the Big East Conference opener for both teams.
The Huskies (10-2) are in after a solid 61-53 victory over Washington, their fourth straight win and sixth in seven games. The Huskies are coming into league play at the right time with a balanced scoring attack. Four players are averaging double figures, led by junior guard Shabazz Napier (16.5) and sophomore guard Ryan Boatright (15.8). Freshman guard Omar Calhoun (11.2) and sophomore forward DeAndre Daniels (10.0) are also in chipping in with double figures.
Marquette (9-3), meanwhile, is in off a 75-66 win over North Carolina Central, its fourth win in five games. The Golden Eagles are led by junior guard Vander Blue, averaging 13.4 points per game.
Though this one is on Marquette's home court, I don't see it being able to slow down U Conn's scoring attack, especially with the Huskies in double-revenge, and looking to start conference play out with a win.
I know Marquette has proved to be a formidable opponent for U Conn since joining the Big East Conference seven years ago, and I see the Golden Eagles have won five of the eight games between the teams, but make note the Huskies are 2-1 at the Bradley Center.
Dating back to last year, the Huskies are 4-0 ATS against Big East teams, while the Golden Eagles have lost four of five to the books at home.
Take the road dog here.
3♦ CONNECTICUT
Craig Davis
No, I haven't lost my mind... I just have one of those feelings, and I'm only rating it a 1♦ so it's not like we're going nuts here. But a money line win in this game could net a $100 player over $450 if it hits.
I like those odds and I like my chances.
On paper you might not know which team is which... and the only reason FSU is favored by so many points is that they're FSU and they supposedly have the best athletes in the country. How can Vegas do anything but list Florida State as a double digit favorite?
Obviously, this is a lose/lose situation for the Seminoles... so what do they have to play for? Seriously? If they win big, they were supposed to, and the rest of the country will criticize the BCS for even letting Northern Illinois into this game.
On the other hand, Florida State could possibly not take Northern Illinois seriously, but that would be a huge mistake because the Huskies are the third toughest team on FSU's schedule this year.
Both coaching staffs are in the midst of changes with FSU losing Mark Stoops, DJ Elliot and Eddie Gran leaving FSU. NIU lost Dave Doeren to North Carolina State but the rest of the staff is staying on to coach the bowl game. Yeah, I'm as confused as you are.
The bottom line is this... both of these teams are in a bit of a mess, but it will be much more of an entertaining game than people think. And yes, I like Northern Illinois to pull off the upset as your free play of the day.
1♦ NORTHERN ILLINOIS - MONEY LINE
Matt Rivers
New Year's Day free play is Northern Illinois in the underdog role against Florida State as the teams meet in the Orange Bowl this Tuesday night.
True the Huskies lost their head coach to another higher-profile job, but motivation should be on the side of NIU, as they are out to prove this BCS game is well-deserved.
Northern Illinois has won twelve in a row heading into this one, and they are 9-3-1 against the spread for the season, and they have covered in six of their last eight when they are getting points. Quarterback Chandler Harnisch is too good to give nearly two scores to.
As for Florida State, they went a money-burning 0-6 against the spread on the road this season, most recently missing the cover as the double-digit favorite in the ACC Championship Game.
Jimbo Fisher has won and covered both of his previous bowl games as Florida State head coach, and the Sems are 4-0 overall their last four bowl games, and while they may run the bowl winning streak to five games, I don't see them getting the cover minus the big number tonight.
2♦ NORTHERN ILLINOIS
DAVID BANKS
Wisconsin Badgers +6
The first BCS bowl of the season is a good old fashioned Rose Bowl with the Big Ten Champion facing the Pac-12 Champion, as the Wisconsin Badgers (8-5, 6-7 ATS) take on the Stanford Cardinal (11-2, 8-5 ATS) at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA at 5:00 ET on ESPN. The traditional conference affiliations for this bowl have not always been in tact since the BCS came into existence, but things worked out this season. Stanford handed Oregon its only loss this season and then beat UCLA twice to win the Pac-12, while the five-loss Badgers advanced to the Big Ten Championship Game despite finishing third in their division behind two ineligible bowl teams in Ohio State and Penn State, and yet annihilated Nebraska 70-31.
The Badgers struggled offensively early in the season while having some close calls vs. mediocre competition and they lost their final two regular season games to aforementioned Ohio State and Penn State. However, Wisconsin certainly seized the opportunity that was gift-wrapped for the Badgers by rushing for an incredulous 539 yards vs. the Cornhuskers, with last year's Heisman Trophy finalist Montee Ball and freshman Melvin Gordon each going over 200 yards! Thus, a team that finished unranked on the final BCS Standings advanced to perhaps the most prestigious bowl game of all. Wisconsin ended the year 12th in the country in rushing with 237.8 yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry, but the Big Ten was not particularly strong this season and the Badgers do not figure to have their usual rushing success vs. the very stout Stanford run defense. Therein lays the problem, as Wisconsin used three starting quarterbacks this season and none of them were effective passing the ball. The Badgers ranked 115th in the county in passing offense with a scant 162.6 yards per game, so they do not seem equipped to take advantage of the Stanford secondary.
Nobody ran on Stanford this year as the Cardinal finished third in the country in rushing defense, allowing only 86.9 yards per game on a measly 2.9 yards per carry. After keeping the speedy Oregon running game in check, stopping a more physical style Wisconsin rushing attack may not seem so daunting for an even more physical Stanford defense. The Cardinal have also been toughened by playing the 16th toughest schedule in the country according to the Sagarin Ratings, and Stanford is a fantastic 6-1 vs. teams in the Sagarin Top 30 with the only loss coming in overtime on the road vs. undefeated and top ranked Notre Dame. Offensively, the Cardinal have a solid running attack of their own led by Stepfan Taylor, who rushed for 1442 on 4.8 yards per carry with 12 rushing touchdowns and two more touchdowns on pass receptions.
Stanford is 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 games overall, including 10-1 ATS in the last 11 non-conference games. Wisconsin is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game. Not today!
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Sacramento vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
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Both teams have been playing well recently. However, that success has come primarily at home, particularly in Sacramento's case. With this game being played at Detroit, I expect the Pistons to have an advantage.
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The Pistons are a "respectable" 8-8 at home. It could be better than that too, as they've outscored teams by a 97.1 to 92.9 margin here.
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While Detroit's home record may not initially seem overly impressive, it sounds a lot better when compared to Sacramento's 1-12 mark on the road. The Kings are getting outscored by a 102.4 to 91.3 margin away from Sacramento, more than 11 points per game.
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While they lost a close one at Sacramento earlier this season, the Pistons are still 4-1 SU/ATS the last five in the series. Playing with "revenge" and catching the Kings likely without Tyreke Evans, take a look at Detroit. Good luck and all the best in 2013.
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Purdue +17½ over Oklahoma State
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The Boilermakers are a mistake prone club that had some really ugly losses this season and at one point dropped five in a row with four of those being of the blowout variety. It’s difficult to get too enthusiastic about backing them but the alternative is likely worse.
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Although talented, OSU is a young club that will play this one without its offensive coordinator. In terms of momentum, Purdue won its final three games while the Cowboys dropped their final two and this wasn’t the game Oklahoma State envisioned playing in. Now the ‘Boys are being asked to spot the largest price in this year’s bowl games and in a disappointing assignment, that’s not a winning recipe. No units risked.
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Northwestern -1 over Mississippi St
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This will be Pat Fitzgerald’s best shot at winning a bowl game after going 0-4 and his Wildcats should have no problem getting it for him. In those previous four bowl appearances, Northwestern was a significant dog in all of them of seven points or more and the Wildcats went 3-1 against the number with only game not covering being by a single point. The 2012 edition is Fitz's best. They lost just three games all year with one occurring in OT and another one being by a single point. This is a strong rushing team that should be able to exploit MSU’s lack of playmakers in their front seven.
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The Bulldogs have lost to all four bowl teams they faced by at least 17 points. They closed out the year by losing four of their last five games while averaging less than 18 points a game over that span. A coaching edge in all phases of the game combined with better overall talent makes these Wildcats easy to get behind here.
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Michigan +6 over South Carolina
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SportsInteraction is offering up six points and if you don’t have an account there, we’re still suggesting you take the points. Those six points is rather significant when you consider that the game is likely to be played in the trenches with both teams struggling to score. The Wolverines haven’t allowed a 200 yard passing game all season and that’s an amazing fact that confirms just how good this defense really is. The Wolverines can't be expected to score much but the explosiveness of Denard Robinson combined with a strong game plan could cause enough damage for Michigan to pull off this upset. Michigan is a better team than its 8-4 record suggests, with four excusable losses (three to squads with a combined 36-1 record plus a tough road trip to Nebraska without Robinson).
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The Gamecocks defense is really good, holding Clemson to 17 points and Georgia to 7 while ranking 11th in the country in points allowed. QB Connor Shaw is coming off a solid year and the offense has racked up some decent numbers but against this strong defense, moving the chains consistently is going to be a huge challenge and Steve Spurrier's lethargic bowl record inspires us to take the points.
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Georgia -8 over Nebraska
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The Cornhuskers don’t belong and if we knew for sure that Georgia isn’t disappointed about playing in this game, it would likely be one of the best wagers of the bowl season. Nebraska’s Bo Pelini's count of outright losses as a favorite now stands at nine. His record of blowouts suffered by at least three scores is at eight and the streak of games with multiple turnovers committed has reached 12 straight. For the Huskers, we can’t get over two games that stick out like a sore thumb this season. First, there was that 63-38 loss to Ohio State and who could ever forget that 71-30 humiliation to Wisconsin on Dec 1.
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The Bulldogs came so close to appearing in the BCS National Championship Game. This is one of the best teams in the country and would absolutely be favored Notre Dame, the #1 team in the country. Georgia finished 10-2 after playing in the nation’s top conference. If the Bulldogs show up at full speed here, this game will not be close. A modest effort is likely to leave the Huskers outclassed once again.
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Wisconsin +5½ over Stanford
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These two are so similar in every way that it just doesn’t make sense spotting points with either of them. Stanford and Wisconsin both play smash-mouth football, led by backs who have earned All-America recognition. They both won their respective conferences and each fields an inexperienced quarterback whose first career start came on Nov. 10. Neither QB has managed to generate any explosion in the downfield passing attack with both squads featuring an outstanding defensive front seven that rate among the nation's best run-stopping units.
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The similarities have become the Rose Bowl storyline and the significant edge that Stanford has is in its outstanding FG kicker. The edge that the Badgers have is that they’re getting significant points and are led by a Hall of Fame coach with an 8-3 bowl record. We trust that’ll get us paid.
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Northern Illinois +15 over Florida State
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The Seminoles get the benefit of playing in Miami but this team has been a bankroll killer all season with a 3-9 record against the spread and that’s unlikely to change here. ‘Noles QB EJ Manuel is not in good form with just 316 passing yards and six turnovers in FSU’s final two games. A month off isn’t going to make him sharper. FSU will also be without its defensive coordinator, Mark Stoops, who took on the coaching job at Kentucky. Florida State is talented indeed but they're too self-destructive to get our money.
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The Huskies literally played one of the weakest schedules in the nation and that’s the only reason they’re being offered this many points and we’ll gladly take them. NIU lost its first game of the year to Iowa by a single point and subsequently ran the table. Teams that play a weak schedule had better not have any red flags in their numbers and the Huskies don't. They rank high in all offensive and defensive stats with QB Jordan Lynch throwing for nearly 3,000 yards passing and leading the Huskies to 43 TD’s against just five picks. The Huskies are the only team in the country besides Texas A&M to rank inside the top 10 in both rushing and passing plays of more than 30 yards. Jumbo Fisher has raved about the way his Seminoles have practiced leading up to this game. We’re still not buying, as Jimbo has sung that tune before with poor results, most notably before the ACC championship game, when his demonstrative praise for the team's practice-field execution turned out to be a dud of a nail-biter win over an even bigger underdog than Northern Illinois. Big insult line will have the Huskies even more motivated.
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Wisconsin +5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It is easy not to be impressed with the Pac 10 this year and even though Stanford comes into this contest with a lot of wins they have had some close calls and they certainly do not have the offense that they have had with Luck doing the signal calling. We do hear a lot about how well the Cardinal Plays D but Wisconsin is just as good or even better if you look at the numbers this year. This game no doubt comes down to whether can "Bread and Butter" it with their running game verses the strong Stanford Rush D. I do think their Big O-Line guys have success today and IMO this game is at best a Tossup. I will grab the 5 Points..
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Georgia -8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's hard to believe that teams could be less than excited about playing a January 1st Bowl game. But with the expanded 35 game slate, that is exactly the position in which each of these teams finds themselves. The Cornhuskers had dreams of the Rose Bowl in just their second season of Big Ten play. Those were quickly doused in a 70-31 loss to Wisconsin. In that game, they allowed the Badgers to rush for 539 yards. It was a continuation of their failure against quality offenses on the road. Nebraska lost 36-30 at UCLA, allowing 344 RY and 63-38 at OSU allowing 371 RY. As a result, they are playing at the same site as last year, where they lost 30-13 to S. Carolina. Unless there have been dramatic changes in the last 31 days, the Huskers could well take the worst of it at the line of scrimmage once again. Georgia is playing old school football under HC Richt. Though the Bulldogs have the ability to stretch the field with QB Murray, a veteran signal caller, it was the Georgia ground game that provided balance and allowed them to stay in the game against a top-ranked Alabama defense in their 32-28 SEC Championship game loss. If Murray has his head on straight after the nightmarish final play of that Championship game, Georgia could put up some big offensive numbers. And though NE is a potent offensive force, 35/462, behind QB Martinez and RB Burkhead, they will be greatly challenged by an SEC type Georgia defense that played its best ball down the stretch in the regular season, allowing 14 or less points to its last five opponents. Fundamentals speak loudly to SEC rep Georgia providing there is no worse than equal motivation come kickoff time.
Accuscore
Stanford -6.5 vs. Wisconsin
The Badgers are in the Rose Bowl, won the Big 10 title game by 39 points, and is still unranked. That is how unimpressive they had been up until that one game in December, and that was against a schizophrenic Nebraska team that is prone to collapse under Bo Pellini. Stanford is a different animal which ranks third in the NCAA in rush defense, and first in both sacks and tackles for loss. Wisconsin has really no choice but to try and run the ball, and if it fails it will likely get blown out going against this athletic front seven. Stanford transformed into a true elite team once Kevin Hogan took over at quarterback, and the bowl layoff probably benefits him the most getting much needed reps in practice. Simulations have Stanford winning by about 3 points on average, but in my opinion they probably undersell how much better their offense is with Hogan, and the level of homefield playing in California. Three of Wisconsin’s losses came on the road, and I still have not factored in the loss of Brett Bielema.
Wunderdog
Michigan vs. South Carolina
Pick: Michigan +5
South Carolina finished the season at 10-2 but the jury may still be out on this team. The Gamecocks avoided having to play against Alabama and Texas A&M, then proceeded to lose to Florida and LSU. They missed the biggest opponents in the conference and then lost to the two they did play. To their credit, they did knock off Georgia. Michigan may have four losses but two of them were to the only two unbeaten teams in NCAA Football this season, while the third was to a team that is playing in the National Championship game, Alabama. Their only other loss was to Nebraska, who isn't such a bad team either. The win/loss column has more to do with this line than the reality of the level of these teams, which is a toss-up, so points will weigh heavy here in this one. The Gamecocks are not exactly-bettor friendly on a neutral field where they are 1-5 ATS n their last six, while the Wolverines making necessary adjustments after allowing 200+ on the ground in their last game at 5-1 ATS in their last six. Play on Michigan.
Charlie Sports
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets
The (25-6) Los Angeles Clippers of the NBA Western Conference Pacific division will take on the (17-15) Denver Nuggets of the Western Conference Northwest division in 2012 NBA action. The teams just played on Christmas day and the Clippers won 112-100 in Los Angeles. The Clippers are the hottest team in the NBA right now, 7-3 their last 10 Against The Spread and are 8-2 ATS their last 10 vs. Denver. The Nuggets are laso 7-3 ATS their last 10 and have covered their last 4 ATS at home. Denver gets the home cover.