Johnny Detroit
Nebraska +9
70-13. Ouch. Nebraska went from a favorite to play in the Rose Bowl to getting totally embarrassed by Wisconsin. Taylor Martinez has me a little concerned with his lackluster Bowl performances (20 points and just 229 yards of offense in past two Bowl losses), but feel getting 10 points makes up for it. Nebraska is in a great spot and getting double value. 1) The obvious blowout at the hands of the Badgers. 2) Georgia losing a close on to Alabama 32-28. The Huskers have a ton to prove with the Bulldogs are in a letdown playing in the Capital One Bowl when they were so close to playing for the BCS Championship. Rex Burkhead, Ameer Abdullah and Taylor Martinez combined for 2,597 yards on the ground. Granted they are not Alabama, but the Tide averaged close to 7 yards a carry on the ground for the Georgia defense, so we like Nebraska to stay in this one and keep the score within range. Possible upset? We think so.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Northwestern PK over Mississippi State: Very quietly the Cats have had a very good year. They went 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS, including a 4-2 mark and a perfect 6-0 ATS vs bowl teams on the year. The Cats were outgained by 108 ypg in their games vs bowl teams, but still outscored them by 2 ppg. Mississippi State went 8-4 on the year, but they were 0-4 SU & ATS vs bowl teams and were outgained by 194 ypg, which is the second worst mark among bowl teams this year. The fact that they were 0-4 SU & ATS vs bowl teams makes sense cause Dan Mullen is 28-3 SU vs teams under .750 in his career at MSU, while also going 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS vs team above .750. The State offense has averaged 30 ppg overall, but just 15 ppg vs bowl teams this year and this Northwestern defense has been pretty solid as they come in allowing just 23 ppg and 386 ypg on the year. MSU's defense has been solid overall as they have allowed 22 ppg and 390 ypg, but vs bowl teams those numbers jump to 39 ppg and 507 ypg. Getting to 10 wins is big for most team and I feel that will motivate the Cats just a bit more. They do have edges on both sides of the ball and should win this one by at least a TD.
Nebraska/ Georgia Over 61: People can say all they want about neither team being motivated in this one, but I think it will be different. Georgia wants to bounce back after late game blunders vs Alabama cost them a shot at the national title, while Nebraska has been itching to get back on the field after getting blasted by Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game. The Georgia Offense has been very good this year as they have averaged 37 ppg on 459 ypg of offense. The Bulldogs have averaged 30 ppg vs bowl teams this year, which includes putting up the second most points (28) on Alabama this year. If they can score that much on Bama they should be able to put up plenty here vs a Nebraska team that allowed 28 ppg to bowl teams, including 70 to Wisconsin in their last game. The Huskers do have the top rated pass defense, but that's mostly because teams have run for 195 ypg on them. Georgia will run on them, and then hit some big plays through the air. The Husker offense has averaged 35 ppg overall and 31 ppg vs Bowl teams and should score on a banged up Georgia team, especially since the will have a healthy Burkhead back for this one. I expect an exciting game here with plenty of points being scored as this one hits 65+.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma State -17 over Purdue: the Boilermakers were 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS while getting outgained by 189 ypg vs bowl teams (3rd worst). They were also outscored by 19 ppg vs bowl teams. In the last 3 seasons the Cowboys have gone 9-1 ATS off 1 or more ATS losses and have outscored those foes by 27.9 ppg. Lets also note that Gundey is 42-18 as a favorite and has outscored those opponents by 19.8 ppg. Cowboys roll here.
Michigan/ South Carolina Under 47.5: Two very good defenses should keep the scoring low here. The Wolverines have allowed just 21 ppg vs bowl teams, while South Carolina has allowed 19 ppg vs them. This has the feeling of a 20-17 type of game.
Harry Bondi
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+14) over Florida State
We had an easy FREE GAME WINNER yesterday when we used Georgia Tech (+7) over USC outright and the primary reason for that pick was that the Trojans had zero interest in playing that game. It's a similar situation here tonight with Florida State, a team that had national championship hopes, but has now been relegated to playing a MAC team that they probably never even heard of until the pairings were released. Much like USC, Florida State plays down to its competition, going 4-9 as a favorite this year, including 0-6 as a chalk of between 10 and 21 points. Northern Illinois and its fan base is excited to be here and have always been worth a play as an underdog, going 2-0 this year when getting points and 41-26 (62%) the last 10 seasons. Take the points.
John Ryan
Wisconsin at Stanford
Prediction: Stanford
The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by seven or more points. Sim also shows that Stanford will gain between 200 and 250 net passing yards. In past games, they are 4-0 ATS this season, 11-0 ATS the past three seasons when they have gained this range of net passing yards. Stanford is projected to gain 350 to 400 total offensive yards. In past games, Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed 350 to 400 yards. Stanford is off a close win over UCLA in the PAC-12 Championship game. Stanford is a solid 16-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS in road games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. Cardinal is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when facing strong offensive teams averaging >=5.9 yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Take Stanford.
SPORTS WAGERS
DENVER -105 over L.A. Clippers
Rematch of X-Mas day game in L.A. in which the Clippers won by 12 and extended their winning streak to 14 games. Since then, the Clip Joint have won three more to push their winning streak to 17. No team is getting more recognition, betting support or higher praise than these Clippers. While it could last past this game, it’s not often we get a Nuggets team at home without having to spot anything and that inspires us to lean that way.
Denver has played less home games than any team in the Association so its 17-15 record is a little misleading. A look at their home record reveals one loss that occurred way back on Nov 15 to the Heat by five points. The Nuggets have beaten both San Antonio and Memphis at the Pepsi Center, among others, where they average 6.4 more points per game and give up 6.9 fewer points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin +5 over Stanford: Yes this game is in California and yes the Badgers have lost 2 of their last 3 down the stretch, while Stanford has won 7 in a row, but I still feel this is too many points to be giving a very good Wisconsin team that will be emotionally charged with Barry Alvarez calling the shots for them in this one. That's right Barry is back and its the players who came forward and stated that they wanted him, so you know they will be playing very hard for him. The Stanford offense has looked good down the stretch, but playing 2 games against UCLA and having games vs Cal, Washington and Colorado will make most offenses look good. The did struggle vs tough defenses like Washington, Notre Dame and Oregon and I expect them to struggle tonight vs a Wisconsin team that is 14th overall and 19th in points allowed (19.1 ppg). The Badgers average 30 ppg on offense and looked very good in their rout of Nebraska and they should be able to score enough points off of this solid Stanford defense. This has the feel of a game that will be decided by a FG and I say that it is Wisconsin kicking that FG in the end to win the game outright.