Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 3

DUNKEL INDEX

Connecticut at Seton Hall
The Huskies look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Connecticut is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-2)

Game 541-542: Nebraska at Ohio State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 57.886; Ohio State 78.133
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 20 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 23 1/2; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+23 1/2); Under

Game 543-544: Connecticut at Seton Hall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 70.630; Seton Hall 67.104
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 3 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-2); Over

Game 545-546: Michigan State at Wisconsin (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 72.314; Wisconsin 80.254
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 8; 111
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 5 1/2; 117
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-5 1/2); Under

Game 547-548: Louisville at St. John's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 68.907; St. John's 62.647
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 6; 139
Vegas Line: Louisville by 7 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+7 1/2); Over

Game 549-550: Harvard at Fordham (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 64.919; Fordham 51.076
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 14; 121
Vegas Line: Harvard by 11 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-11 1/2); Under

Game 551-552: WI-Milwaukee at Western Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 60.017; Western Michigan 62.131
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 2; 132
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+2); Over

Game 553-554: Arkansas-Little Rock at Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas-Little Rock 47.977; Kentucky 80.602
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 32 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 28; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-28); Over

Game 555-556: UAB at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 56.416; Florida 73.506
Dunkel Line: Florida by 17; 131
Vegas Line: Florida by 19; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+19); Under

Game 557-558: Cornell at Maryland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 50.633; Maryland 57.156
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 6 1/2; 145
Vegas Line: Maryland by 9; 142
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+9); Over

Game 559-560: Drake at Creighton (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 53.776; Creighton 71.996
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 18; 146
Vegas Line: Creighton by 14 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-14 1/2); Under

Game 561-562: Oklahoma at Missouri (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 65.738; Missouri 75.117
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 10 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: Missouri by 13; 150
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+13); Over

Game 563-564: Alabama at Georgia Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 67.312; Georgia Tech 60.764
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 6 1/2; 110
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4; 116 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-4); Under

Game 565-566: SMU at Mississippi (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 52.301; Mississippi 62.223
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 10; 119
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 9; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-9); Under

Game 567-568: Siena at Iona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 45.629; Iona 60.376
Dunkel Line: Iona by 14 1/2; 155
Vegas Line: Iona by 16; 150
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+16); Over

Game 571-572: Oral Roberts at Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 60.847; Oakland 59.984
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 1; 155
Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 3; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Over

Game 573-574: UMKC at IUPUI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UMKC 46.729; IUPUI 59.301
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 12 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: IUPUI by 10 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: IUPUI (-10 1/2); Under

Game 575-576: Southern Utah at IPFW (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 47.860; IPFW 49.523
Dunkel Line: IPFW by 1 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: IPFW by 3 1/2; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+3 1/2); Under

Game 577-578: South Dakota at Western Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 45.048; Western Illinois 54.176
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 9; 132
Vegas Line: Western Illinois by 8 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (-8 1/2); Over

Game 777-778: Wofford at Wake Forest (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 52.334; Wake Forest 59.137
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 7; 130
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 5 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-5 1/2); Under

Game 779-780: Niagara at Loyola-MD (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 45.864; Loyola-MD 55.686
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 10; 150
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 12; 145
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+12); Over

Game 781-782: Jacksonville State at SE Missouri State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 44.412; SE Missouri State 45.521
Dunkel Line: SE Missouri State by 1; 122
Vegas Line: SE Missouri State by 3 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville State (+3 1/2); Under

Game 783-784: Idaho State at Northern Colorado (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 44.019; Northern Colorado 57.275
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 13 1/2; 154
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 9 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (-9 1/2); Over

Game 785-786: NC-Greensboro at Miami (FL) (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 44.742; Miami (FL) 64.639
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 20; 146
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 23; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+23); Over

David Chan

Red Wings @ Stars
PICK: Over 5.5

The 24-13-1 Detroit Red Wings storm into Dallas to take on the 21-15-1 Stars.

Wings goaltender Jimmy Howard has sure been playing well lately, and made 31 saves on Saturday for a 3-0 win over St. Louis:

“Every night you want to get up and play your best against the goalie at the other end,” Howard said recently. “I think it’s more along the lines that we need the points. We can’t sit back and rest on anything. We need to continue to get points.”

But take note; Howard plays much better at Joe Louis Arena, as evidenced by Detroit's 12-game win streak in front of the home town crowd, compared to having lost six of its last nine away from friendly confines:

“You want to be real good at home,” coach Mike Babcock said. “We’d like to improve our road record here, and we’re going to have an ample opportunity to do that.”

Dallas is looking to continue to build momentum as well.

After stumbling in a stunning 4-1 loss to cellar dweller Columbus, the Stars bounced back with a 4-2 win over the defending champion Boston Bruins on Saturday:

“I think it’s huge for us … It was a good rebound game,” forward Jamie Benn said.

“For us moving forward, we’ve gotta look up,” coach Glen Gulutzan said. “We can’t look down and sideways, we’ll trip and fall.”

Both goaltenders have struggled in this series:

Howard is 3-4-1 with a 2.37 GAA in eight starts vs. Dallas.

Kario Lehtonen is 3-3-0 with a 3.18 GAA lifetime vs. Detroit.

All signs point to a high-scoring shootout!

Jim Feist

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -7½

Houston is 2-0 at home, but 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. Houston is a weak rebounding and defensive team, which will hurt against the big Lakers. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. This is the start of a three game trip for Houston and they face a rested Laker squad home from a loss at Denver that ended a 3-game win streak. LA is one of the top defensive teams (88 ppg allowed, 4th) in the NBA under their new head coach and they match up well. Play the LA Lakers!

Scott Spreitzer

Oral Roberts at Oakland
Prediction: Oral Roberts

ORU have dropped all 5 meetings with Oakland over the last 3 season no matter where the games were played. But this isn't the same Golden Grizzlies' team that finished 17-1 SU in the Summit League last season. Oakland lost big-men Keith Benson (ATL Hawks) and Will Hudson from last year's team. Heading into this season, most felt Greg Kampe's squad would be perimeter oriented on the offensive end of the floor. But the Grizzlies have been horrible from the deep perimeter, making just 30.1% of their 3-point attempts. Unfortunately for Oakland, they have been even worse on the defensive end. Oakland allows a whopping 79.2 ppg on 48.8% shooting, including 38.4% from the arc. That's 336th, 335th, and 312th in the nation, respectively. They have dropped 4 in a row SU/ATS allowing the opposition to connect on 124 of 218 shots (57%) from the field, including 39 of 79 (49%) from the arc. The schedule hasn't been easy, but ORU is no softy either. And making matters even worse for the home team is their mediocre rebounding matched-up against Oral Roberts' top-10 ranking in rebounds allowed per game (25.7). There aren't a lot of second chances when you face ORU. The Golden Eagles enter on an 11-2 SU run, including wins over Texas Tech, Xavier (a nice win even with XU's suspensions), and Missouri State. ORU came within 6 of Gonzaga in Spokane, with a minus-6 FT disparity being the difference in the game. While the team only has 9 players who have seen playing time, 8 of those players average in double-figures in minutes played per game...and 6 of those average between 18.3 and 7.1 ppg. Dominique Morrison is the best player on the floor (all apologies to Reggie Hamilton) and he's one of 5 forwards to test the Grizzlies. It's been a long time coming, but I believe the Golden Eagles will finally break Oakland's head-to-head stranglehold. I'm laying the points with Oral Roberts on Tuesday.

Rob Vinciletti

Connecticut vs. Seton Hall
Play: Seton Hall +2

Seton Hall is much better than last years team that defeated U. Conn as a 3 point dog here. U. Conn is still solid but not as good as least seasons team. In fact the Huskies are 0-5 on the road the last 2 seasons when the total is 130 to 134.5 and 0-4 ats as a road favorite of 3 or less. The Pirates are 5-11 ats as a home dog of 3 or less and have won all 8 games here this season. In their last game they knocked off West Virginia by 19, suffocating them with solid defense allowing just 32% shooting from the field. Look for Seton Hall to put an end to the U.Conn 7 game win streak. Take Seton Hall.

FREE NBA PICK FOR 1/3/12: Houston Rockets/LA Lakers UNDER 194 Points. The under is 6-0 in the LAs last 6 games overall, and 5-0 in their last 5 at home. The Lakers are playing a much better defensive game under new coach Mike Brown allowing just 88 points/game, including just 82 points/game at home. Houston will be playing the first of back to back games, and the first of a three game road trip. The Rockets are 0-2 so far on the road where they are scoring just 94 pts/game, and where they have also allowed 108 points/game. But those two games where Houston surrendered the big numbers were at Memphis and Orlando. At home the Rockets have allowed only 84.5 points/game. Houston forward Luis Scola summed it up when he said: "I think so far in the season, we've been showing two faces. In the two home games we've won ... we focused on defense ... In the two games we played on the road, we didn't play that way, that's why we won those two games and that's why we lost the other two." We expect the Rockets to emphasise a much stronger defensive effort tonight, especially with Kobe Bryants injury on his shooting wrist. Take the UNDER 194 points tonight. FREE PLAYS NOW 133-71-1.

SPORTS WAGERS

Virginia Tech +130 over Michigan

Almost all the experts agree that the Wolverines are close to returning to prominence and are likely to acheive so next season. Michigan's defense went from a disaster to excellence in one year under Greg Mattison. Michigan also has a 1,000-yard rusher in Fitzgerald Toussaint to complement speedy triggerman Denard Robinson. That running game is explosive and tough to defend. However, Dernard Robinson is another story when he steps back to pass. This is a one-dimensional offense that the Hokies have had plenty of time to prepare for. Tech comes in with a huge chip on its shoulder and something to prove after losing as a favorite in its conference championship game. The pundits will claim the Hokies lost twice to the only decent team they faced (Clemson) but they found themselves in a tough spot both times. This game takes place in the Superdome and Virginia Tech's edge in speed will become evident against a much slower Michigan team. The Hokies finished the season 6-1 away from home, compared to a .500 mark on the road for Michigan and that's really a good measuring stick to see if a team can step it up under pressure. This game is definitely a close call but Tech, despite injuries to some defensive players, are still a powerful club with more balance and thus, they get the call. Play: Virginia Tech +130 (Risking 2 units).

Bryan Power

Rockets @ Lakers
Pick: Over 193.5

Perhaps mirroring the mentality of new head coach Mike Brown, the Lakers have come out & gone Under in each of their first six games. They have yet to top 100 points in any game as the early returns have been a "mixed back" w/ a 3-3 SU start. Tonight, they host a Rockets team they played three times last season & the Over was a PERFECT 3-0 in those games! Houston has allowed 104 and 113 points in two road games so far (both losses). The Lakers were dealt a very tough schedule to open the season with six games in eight days. Eventually, that's going to catch up to them and we'll see dead legs on the defensive end. The Rockets are 13-3 Over as a road dog of 6.5 pts or more. I look for the highest scoring Lakers game (by a significant margin) tonight.

Matt Fargo

Connecticut vs. Seton Hall
Play: Seton Hall +3

Something is going to have to give head as the Huskies enter this game perfect on the road while Seton Hall enters this game perfect at home. The difference is that Connecticut has played only one true road game this season and that resulted in a narrow three-point win last Wednesday at South Florida. The Bulls are not as bad as they used to be but Seton Hall is a much better team which will make this game a challenge for the limited experience a lot of these young players have on the road.

Seton Hall got blown out at Syracuse last Wednesday but it came back strong on Friday at home against West Virginia as the Pirates blew out the Mountaineers by 19 points. After scoring only 49 points against the Orange, Seton Hall allowed only 48 points against the Mountaineers and that defense has been solid all season. I expect the momentum to carry over from that victory as Seton Hall will look to break an 11-game losing streak against Connecticut in this series.

Don't think it isn't possible because the Pirates have done it once already as they snapped a seven-game losing streak to the Mountaineers with that victory last week. Seton Hall is a perfect 8-0 at home this season and those eight wins already match the entire home win total from last season. It can be argued that the schedule has been easy form wins over West Virginia, Auburn and Wake Forest are at least confidence boosting victories. Seton Hall matches up well on the floor with the Huskies.

Seton Hall is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 home games while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games following two or more consecutive unders. Also, the Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs of fewer than seven points while the Huskies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites of fewer than seven points. Connecticut hit 56.2 percent of its three-pointers last game against St. John's and it is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after shooting 50 percent or better from long range in its last game.

Kyle Hunter

Michigan Virginia Tech Over 50.5

Brady Hoke had a wildly successful first year with the Michigan Wolverines. Hoke did a masterful job turning around a defense that was pitiful under Rich Rodriguez. The Wolverines were expected to make a big jump, but not many people thought they would improve so quickly. Frank Beamer and the Virginia Tech Hokies just keep on winning. The Hokies quietly put together another 11-2 campaign this year. It’s the Big Ten against the ACC in the Sugar Bowl on January 3rd.

Denard Robinson’s numbers weren’t quite as impressive this year, but he is still one of the most electrifying players in football. Robinson averaged 5.6 yards per carry, and he ran for 16 touchdowns. The passing game is where he continues to be inconsistent. Robinson had 18 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. He completed just 56% of his attempted passes. The emergence of Fitzgerald Touissant as a quality running back helped this offense in a big way this year. Touissant ran for 1,011 yards and he took a lot of pressure off Robinson in the running game. Michigan averaged 34.2 points per game this year.

The incredible turnaround of the Wolverines defense was something no one could have predicted. A defense that was shredded on a weekly basis last year became one of the best defenses in the Big Ten this year. Michigan ranked 17th in the nation in total defense during the regular season. Mike Martin and Craig Roh led the way up front for the Wolverine. Jordan Kovacs stepped up to lead the secondary in a big way this year. Michigan allowed just 17.2 points per game this season.

Virginia Tech has eight straight seasons of ten or more wins. The Hokies are still looking for some national respect though because of their struggles in BCS games. During the past eight seasons, Virginia Tech is just 1-4 in BCS bowl games. This year’s team is trying to help cement the Hokies status as an elite football program. Logan Thomas was consistently inconsistent at the quarterback spot for Virginia Tech this year. Thomas was good most of the year, but when he was bad he was very bad. His completion percentage of 59% isn’t particularly good, but he only threw nine interceptions this year. David Wilson piled up 1,631 yards on the ground this year. It’s no secret that Virginia Tech is at their best when they can run the football consistently.

The defense is the strength of this Virginia Tech team. The team suffered some major injury losses at the linebacker positions, but the Hokies continue to be as solid as ever on defense. In 7 of the team’s 13 games this year, Virginia Tech’s opponent failed to score more than 13 points. The secondary sometimes takes too many risks and gets beat deep, but the front seven has been very good against the run this year. The Hokies allow 17.2 points per game, just like the Wolverines defense does.

These two defenses are very good, but I think the extra time to prepare will help the offenses in this one. Look for both teams to be able to move the football quite a bit in this one. I think the over is the best play.

Steve Janus

Creighton -13.5

I believe this is a good spot to back Creighton at home, even though they come in favored by 13.5-points. The last time the Bluejays took the floor at home they lost 65-77 to Missouri State as a 10-point favorite. While that might seem like a pretty good reason to take the Drake Bulldogs in this game, the home loss actually makes Creighton worthy of some action. The Bluejays are 22-2 the next time they take the floor at home in this situation. Not to mention Creighton is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Drake has not been a very good team as a true road team. They have had three legit road games this season. They are 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They are losing by an average of 23 ppg. The Bulldogs are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Chicago Bulls -9.5

The Hawks handed Miami its first loss of the season yesterday, but this will be a tough encore. The Bulls, which beat Memphis by 40 in their last game, have had a day to rest. They've also had plenty of success against Atlanta.

Chicago has won 6 of the last 8 in this series with all 6 of those wins coming by at least 12 points. The Hawks, are just 1-4 SU and ATS in the last 5 matchups with those 4 losses coming by an average of 15.5 points.

The extra day of rest could be significant for Chicago, which is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 games when playing with a day of rest. The Bulls are also 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games when matched up against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Hawks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. We'll bet the Bulls.

Jack Jones

Creighton -13.5

Creighton is one of the best teams in the country. They are showing great value Tuesday as a favorite against the Drake Bulldogs Tuesday in a game they should win by 20-plus.

Creighton has two great players in Antoine Young (11.4 PPG, 4.2 APG) and Gregory Echenique (9.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG). These are two studs, but they have a superstar in coach's son Doug McDermott (23.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG).

Creighton is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) off an upset win as a road underdog since 1997. The Bluejays are 15-3 ATS fter playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Bluejays are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Take Creighton Tuesday.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +128 over TORONTO

Two teams that are in opposite forms. The Lightning are coming on strong with three wins in a row and just one regulation loss in their last seven games. Tampa has outscored its last three oponents by a count of 14-6 while scoring four or more in all three games. They bring the sizzling hot Steven Stamkos to town against the much maligned and well publicized Leafs penalty kill. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have just two wins over their last eight. They beat the Islanders and they beat a completely free-falling Sabres team. The Leafs also return home from a four-game trip and perhaps the worst news of all is that they beat the Lightning 7-1 in Tampa earlier this year. The Bolts have had this one circled on their calenders ever since. Lastly, the Lightning begin an exciting three-game trip beginning here that will alos see them play in Montreal and Ottawa and every player in the league looks forward to the Toronto-Montreal-Ottawa trip. Play: Tampa Bay +128 (Risking 2 units).

NY Islanders +107 over CAROLINA

The Islanders aren't exactly setting the world on fire but they have won two in a row and four of its last seven games. Two of their three losses over that span came against the surging Rangers and that's nothing to hang your head over. The Islanders have also outscored their last two oponents by a score of 7-2 and it's always a good sign when a team starts allowing less goals than they were earlier. The Hurricanes, well, they're the Hurricanes. They're a beatable team that should never be bet on when laying juice. They are playing better since Kirk Muller took over but they still have just one regulation win over its last seven games. The Canes are under 500 at home while the Islanders could be on the verge of its annual second half run to just miss the playoffs. Play: N.Y. Islanders +107 (Risking 2 units).