Andre Gomes
Portland / Oklahoma City Over 194
Oklahoma City had a complete no show yesterday, with a terrible offensive game, completely off sync. They seem to be too relaxed and the spot of being 5-0 vs DAL, who had they defeated previously this season and was on a back to back ended up being a huge trap for them. So tonight, I expect a bounce back for the Thunder and their aggressiveness will surely be back! Portland has been playing at a super fast pace, especially for a team who was playing with a pace on the low 80's last season! Already this season, they have played games at a pace of 98, 91, 102(!) and 93! With this change of pace, Portland is now very prone to commit turnovers, currently having a TO/rate of 15.20%. Curiously, Oklahoma City has also been having tremendous struggles with turnovers, with a TO/rate of 17%, the league's worst mark! Russell Westbrook has been a disaster and this combination of turnovers will originate a lot of chances for both teams to score in the transition, especially considering we are talking about two athletic teams!
Portland is coming from a loss at LAC, where they didn't score 100 points or more, as the Trailblazers could only score 5 fast break points, with Gerald Wallace scoring 0 points, on a 0-5 FG night! However, the turnovers of the Thunder will allow an offensive bounce back from Portland and Wallace individually! He played twice against Oklahoma City last season already in Portland and in one of the games he had 40pts 16-28 FG and 7 boards, while in the other game, he had 13pts, 6reb, 3ast and 2stl! So, we can definitely expect a bounce back from Gerald Wallace tonight! The Blazers are also a great offensive rebounding team, so Portland should be able to score 2nd chance points on this game. Their problems on the offense has been their lack of consistency on the outside, but the combination of the transitions and the off rebounds will be quite relevant on this matchup.
On the other side, the Thunder continue to be an offensive machine based on two main factors: free throws and fast break points! They are currently averaging 16.8 FB/game (5th in the league) and they are scoring 1.26 PPP (points per possession with a volume of 14.2% on transition plays. They are 2nd in the league in FT/rate with 38.5%. These are all signs of the kind of offense we are talking about. Looking at their poor loss yesterday, we can expect more than 25 FT attempts for Oklahoma City tonight. Already on the four games between these two teams last season, Oklahoma City had 26, 26, 29 and 23 FT attempts, with Portland being a super slow paced team at the time. Now looking at the new pace that Portland is playing and the aggressiveness, athleticism and turnover problems of both teams, I've projected a line of 198 for this contest, which makes me take the over on this contest.
Dave Price
1 Unit Houston Rockets +7
The Lakers, who are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, are getting a little too much respect here. They've had a day to gear up for this game, but that one day will provide little relief after such a challenging earlier slate which saw them play 6 games in 8 days. The Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest. The Rockets have only played 4 games this season and have had 2 full days to prepare for this one. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Houston.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Trail Blazers/Thunder UNDER 194.5
We've seen just 189 total points scored in each of the last two meetings between these teams. Both of those games finished under the total, and I'm expecting this trend to continue tonight. The under has without a doubt been the play in this series, cashing 12 times in the 16 meetings, including 8 times in the last 9 meetings at OKC. With both the Blazers and Thunder coming off losses in which they allowed their opponents to shoot at or above 48% from the field, expect them to tighten the screws defensively this evening. Take the Under.
SPORTS WAGERS
Sacramento +7 over MEMPHIS
We usually wouldn't recommend playing against a team that got whacked by 40 points in its last outing but we'll make an exception here. The Grizzlies have just one win in four tries and have already lost two key players in Michael Conley and Zach Randolph. In a shortened season in which games, days and weeks will fly by, the Grizz are suddenly in some trouble and this young team could be pressing a little too hard here. Teams like Sacramento, Toronto, Golden State, Utah, Charlotte and Cleveland for instance, are under no pressure whatsoever, as expectations are extremely low and as a result, they come out loose and dangerous. They have a “so what if we get blown out attitide”. The Kings do have some scorers and they can get a lead on anyone should they heat up. Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton are big talents that are coming off a 52-point performance between them. The Kings are 2-3 and while they're ceratinly in danger od losing big almost against quality teams, the Grizz are just too fragile a team right now to be laying significant points with. Play: Sacramento +7 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
NHL Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning +114
The Lightning have had a rough start to the season going 17-17-3 and just 6-12-3 on the road, but they have won 3 straight games coming into tonight and 5 of their last 7. Tampa Bay has the talent to be a top contender in the Eastern Conference but they haven't been showing it - I expect them to have a better second half of the season. The Leafs have been up and down and are 18-15-5 on the season and 8-5-4 at home this year. Toronto has lost three straight and 6 of their last 8 games. The Leafs are coming off 4 straight road games with Christmas break mixed in there. Although they had the break in between the road games, the Leafs generally don't play well the first game back home after a road trip. The Leafs have won just 3 of their last 11 home games, and are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Jonas Gustavsson gets the call tonight in net for the Leafs and he is 9-7 but has a high 3.27 GAA. Note that the Lightning are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs a team with a losing record. Also take note that the Lightning have won 5 of their last 6 games in Toronto. Take Tampa as very live underdogs tonight.
Washington Capitals -113 (Regulation)
Calgary has had stretches of good hockey, but they have lost three straight games and 7 of their last 11. The Flames are now 18-17-5 on the season and just 8-12-3 away from home. They are playing in their 6th straight road game and will face a hot Washington team. The Capitals look to get back on track and have won 3 straight games coming into tonight. The Caps are 20-15-2 on the year and 13-5-1 on home ice. The Caps have won 4 of their last 5 home games and all four wins came in regulation. Note that the Flames are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games, and 1-7 in their last 8 games as road underdogs. The Flames are also just 2-7 in their last 9 games as an underdog overall and 0-4 in their last 4 vs Eastern Conference opponents. The Caps are 7-3 in their last 10 as a favorite. Also note that dating back the Caps are a stellar 37-14 in their last 51 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Capitals are heating up right now, while the Flames near the end of a long road trip and have lost 3 straight. I will take the Capitals to get things done at home tonight, and like the value we are getting for them take it in regulation time. If you don't like betting regulation wins I would probably still lay the chalk on the moneyline at -160
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Drake/ Creighton Under 147: Not a very high scoring series between these teams as just 1 of the last 10 have put up more than 147 points in a game, while last year the teams averaged just 130.5 ppg in the two games. Drake has allowed 87.3 ppg on the road, but if you take out the 108 they allowed at Boise then they have allowed 75 ppg in their other two games. Overall Drake is not a bad defensive team, allowing just 66.8 ppg on 43.7% shooting overall, plus they seem to always play good defense in MVC games. Creighton has scored a ton this year at 83.1 ppg overall and 88.7 ppg at home, but in their 2 MVC games this year they have averaged just 66.5 ppg. Drake has averaged 70 ppg in their first 2 MVC games, but overall they have put up just 67.6 ppg, including just 64.3 ppg on the road. Offenses do get a bit tighter once conference play begins and that has been the case for Creighton this year and I see them having some problems with this Drake defense tonight. I don't expect this game to hit 140 at all. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CREIGHTON) - after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers and their opponent has forced forced their last opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers.
3 UNIT PLAYS
MISSOURI -13 over Oklahoma: Google News Play. This is not a good spot for the Sooners. The Tigers needed a late comeback vs an inferior foe (ODU) in their last game and you can bet Frank Haith is not happy and will have his team ready for this Big 12 opener tonight. The Sooners are picked near the bottom of the Big 12 standings and recent history has shown that they have struggled in this spot. They have lost 16 of their last 17 conference road games and in their last 12 meetings with ranked foes they are 0-12 and have been outscored by 15.4 ppg, plus they are 1-8 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons and 0-7 ATS in road games after playing a game away from home over the last 3 seasons. With this being the first real road game of the season for the Sooners, the team will certainly learn a lot about itself and how it stacks up against the rest of the elite in the Big 12 and the nation. Unfortunately for Oklahoma, the Tigers just have too many weapons to turn to that can give them a lift when they are in need. Missouri by at least 17 in this game.
Michigan State +6 over WISCONSIN: Google News Play. The Spartans are rolling right now as they have won 13 in a row. They are very balanced at both ends of the floor and are just playing with a whole lot of confidence. Draymond Green is just a monster, leading the team in scoring, rebounding, steals and blocks, while Kieth Appling has put up 19.3 ppg in his last 3 games. This is a team that is ready for a serious sun through the Big 10. Even though the Badgers play the best defense in the nation they will need to get better consistency from their offense if tey hope to stay in the Big 10 race. Iowa showed that if their defense has a bad night the offense won't be able to score enough to help them win, even though they played a bad defensive team (Iowa is 255th in scoring defense). Michigan State does play excellent defense as they have allowed just 59.5 ppg (40th) on 37.6% shooting (17th). I do not see the Badgers being able to score enough in this game to pull away for an easy win. Actually I don't see them scoring enough to win this one out right, even though Sparty has not won here while Ryan has been coach of the Badgers. Look for an outright win by Michigan State here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Connecticut -3 over SETON HALL: The Pirates have been most onmpressive this yera as they have gone 12-2 to start the yera, but they really haven't played anyone yet and in their lone game vs a ranked foe (Syracuse) they were blown out by 26 points. UConns is also off to a good start at 12-1 which includes a 2-0 mark in the Big East. The Huskies hold a commanding 42-18 series lead over the Pirates, which includes victories in each of the past 11 meetings and they should make it 12 in a row with an easy win tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Ohio State/ Nebraska Under 124: The Huskers come in averaging just 63.56 ppg overall, but vs two tough Big 1o defenses this year they have averaged just 47.5 ppg. Now they get to face an angry Buckeye squad that just allowed Indiana to put up 74 points. That doesn't sit well with OSU and they should come up with a much better defensive effort tonight. The Buckeyes come in allowing just 56.4 ppg (12th) on 40.1% shooting (77th) and they should have no problems holding down the Huskers here. The Buckeyes are putting up 78.6 ppg, but Nebraska has played solid defense this year as they are 70th in points allowed (61.8 ppg). The have needed to pay good defense since their offense is so bad. I look for this game to finish at about 115.
TOP SYSTEMS OF THE DAY (3-1 ON THE YEAR)
I did this over the baseball season and tried for the most part during the early NFL and CFB seasons, but it turned, but just didn't keep up with it as tracking down these systems or looking through my own was a bit more work than expected. Well Ihave organized things a bit more and have found an easier less time consuming way to do this. Now as i stated these are system plays yes, but they have had some thought go into them for me to post. In other words I have to think that the sysytem play has a good shot at coveing or i won't post. I could have a 30-1 system that looks good, but if I don't think it favors the right side then I will not post it. I will keep all the record for these plays right here.
Play Over in a game where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points and the home team is off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite and its a January game. This play is 30-6 the last 5 seasons. Play Missouri/ Oklahoma Over 152
Play On any team that is a good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) off a game in which they shot 60% plus overall and allowed 40% or less shooting and now are playing a against a good 3PT defense (<=32%). This play is 30-8 the last 5 seasons. Play On Connecticut -3 over Seton Hall.
Play Over in a game where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points after a team (IUPU) is off 3 or more consecutive wins and they have a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. This play is 57-23 since 1997. Play Missouri- KC/ IUPUI Over 152.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma City/ Portland over 195: Really unusual to see a Portland team that averages over 100 ppg, but that's what we have this year so far. Last time out Portland did put up just 88 points vs the Clipps, but in their first 3 games of the year they put up 106.3 ppg. Tonight the Blazers get to face an OKC team that has allowed 97.2 ppg overall and 99.7 ppg in their last 3 games. The Thunder has really scored well at home this year as they have averaged 102.7 ppg on an impressive 52.8% shooting there, plus a solid 45.5% from long range. The Blazers have played solid defense this year (94.2 ppg), but not sure it's gonna matter tonight vs this good Thunder team. This should be a tight game and FT's will be important as well and both teams hit 80%+ of their FT's. This should be an exciting game and I see both teams in the 100's here. KEY TREND--- OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-3 OVER versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
Lakers/ Houston Over 191.5: Without Yao the Rockets have turned to more of a running team that last year plus and they have been pretty good on offense this year as they have averaged 97 ppg on a solid 46% shooting. On defense the Rockets have played pretty well at home, but in their 2 road games they have allowed 108.5 ppg. The Rockets have allowed 54.6% shooting on the road this year, while overall they have allowed 47.3%, which is 28th in the league and that should help out this struggling Lakers offense to get back on track. The Lakers have played pretty good defense this year (88.2 ppg), but are off 2 games in which they allowed 94 ppg. 94 points would be good here as the Lakers should get at least 98 of their own. This should be an uptempo game with around 200 points being scored.
2 UNIT PLAY
Charlotte/ Cleveland Under 189: The Bobcats have had problems scoring this year as they are 24th in points (90 ppg) and 24th in shooting (41.4%) and they have to face a Cleveland team that has allowed just 93.2 ppg overall and 89.6 ppg in their last 3 games, despite one of those games going to OT. The Cavs do average 97.5 ppg on the year and will be going up against a the worst defensive team in the league, but still neither team likes to run and that will keep the overall total points down. I look for a game in the low 180's
TOP SYSTEMS OF THE DAY (4-2 ON THE YEAR)
I did this over the baseball season and tried for the most part during the early NFL and CFB seasons, but it turned, but just didn't keep up with it as tracking down these systems or looking through my own was a bit more work than expected. Well Ihave organized things a bit more and have found an easier less time consuming way to do this. Now as i stated these are system plays yes, but they have had some thought go into them for me to post. In other words I have to think that the sysytem play has a good shot at coveing or i won't post. I could have a 30-1 system that looks good, but if I don't think it favors the right side then I will not post it. I will keep all the record for these plays right here.
Play Under in a game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and a team (Cleveland) is off 2 or more consecutive unders and they are an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) playing against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG). This play is 30-9 since 1996. Play Cleveland/ Charlotte Under 189.
Play against favorites after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 75%). This play is 25-6 since 1986. Play on Atlanta +9.5 over Chicago
Andrew Lange
Oral Roberts at Oakland
Play: Oakland +3
It doesn't appear that Oakland is the class of the Summit League this season after a 17-1 mark last year. The Grizzlies have already lost two league games and find themselves in the midst of a four-game losing streak. We know this team still has talent with a home win over Tennessee and solid performances in losses to Ohio, Michigan and Arizona. This is a home court that has held up extremely well over the years with 31-straight conference victories. A potentially dangerous spot for Oral Roberts who is playing its third straight road game and returns home for a two-game set against upstart North Dakota State and South Dakota State on Thursday and Saturday. ORU has an impressive resume but is perhaps getting a bit too much credit for winning at Xavier when the Musketeers were decimated by suspensions. Oakland was a 1.5-point underdog in the win over Tennessee and just a year removed from never being less than a double-digit favorite on its home court in conference play. Oakland head coach Greg Kampe described tonight's game as "must win as you can ever have in January". Never like to hear "must win" in January but I expect a full effort by the home side underdog.