Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 4,2011

Jim Feist

San Antonio vs New York
Play: San Antonio

Oddsmakers haven't caught up to the big bad Spurs even now, on a 4-0 SU/ATS run. This is the start of a 3-game road trip, but this deep team has had 2 full days off. They match up well with an uptempo New York team that doesn't defend the three-pointer well (21st in the NBA) and San Antonio is lights out with a sizzling 40% from beyond the arc, easily tops in the NBA. San Antonio is 10-2 on the road. Play the Spurs.

SPORTS WAGERS

Arkansas +1.44 over Ohio St.

We’re putting this one up early because we suggest you get in early before something strange occurs. Unless you’ve been under a rock for the past couple of weeks then you’ve surely heard about the turbulence that surrounds the Buckeyes, particularly QB Terrelle Pryor along with four others. The five Ohio State players have been suspended for the first five games of next season for selling memorabilia and accepting discounts for tattoos but they plead ignorance and will be allowed to play in the Sugar Bowl. That’s what the league ruled but it’s not what the coach ruled. That’s right, as ludicrous as this may sound, coach Jim Tressel is very likely to sit these guys for perhaps the first quarter or first half but you know for sure that the Sweater Vest is going to have a say. He’ll get accolades from everyone and he’ll get support from everyone and he can smell a great opportunity to make a statement and he will. Now, even if he plays everyone right from the start, the Buckeyes still might struggle here because they’re just not close to being as good as advertised and frankly, their overrated defense has virtually no shot of stopping the Razorbacks. The Buckeyes played a rather easy schedule and with only one really tough opponent, that being the Badgers halfway through the season in a game they lost by 13. They beat a very mediocre Miami team back in week 2 but they were the second best team on the field that day. The same can be said when they luckily squeaked out a three-point win over Iowa in week 11. Other than that, OSU played a whole bunch of middle of the pack teams not to mention at least four cupcakes in Marshall, Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Minnesota. Meanwhile, Arkansas played Alabama, South Carolina, LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, Auburn and Mississippi St. They are so much more battle tested than the Buckeyes. Arkansas possesses a potent attack and a rock solid defense while the Buckeyes possess neither. The fact that the Backs are getting 3½ points is ridiculous. Take the points if you like but chances are you won’t need them because in the best of circumstances OSU would be hard pressed to beat this superior foe and this is anything but that. Razorbacks outright and it might not be close, thus we’re going to make this one a double unit play. Play Arkansas +1.44 (Risking 2 units). Play: Arkansas +3½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

Scott Spreitzer

UConn at Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame

I'm laying the points with the Irish. Notre Dame is 12-2 overall and 9-0 at home and on a current 9-1 ATS run in conference games. The only losses for the Irish were against Kentucky and Syracuse and those were the only games they were outrebounded. Dating to last season, Notre Dame has covered 13 of its last 18 games and it has covered seven of the last 10 meetings with Connecticut. The Irish have a 49 percent field goal percentage and 43 percent from 3-point range at home this season while holding opponents to just 40 percent from the field. Four players average in double figures, including Tim Abromaitis (16.3 ppg and 7.2 rpg) and Ben Hansbrough (15.2 ppg). UConn got off to a tremendous 10-0 start in non-conference games, but things changed in a hurry when Big East play began as the Huskies suffered a 78-63 drubbing at Pittsburgh and then was taken to overtime before beating South Florida at home. In those two games, UConn was 40-for-116 (34.5 percent) from the field. Guard Kemba Walker, one of the top scorers in the country, was only 17-for-45 (37.7 percent) in the two conference games and the rest of the team has done a lot of standing around, watching Walker work. Look for Notre Dame to keep its home court domination intact.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

The Thunder are 18-8 Over when favored this season and perhaps more interestingly 15-3 Over after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game. Look for these two teams to fly over the total Tuesday night.

Play on: Over

Craig Trapp

San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks
Play: San Antonio Spurs -5

Last season Spurs won both games head to head and ATS. This season we have seen this Spurs team just dominate as they seem to have found the fountain of youth for their aging team. This series has seen the favorite dominate head to head going 10-4 L7 years. Knicks are a good story but against the best power teams they just don't have the horses. Spurs showoff here winning by double digits.

BIG AL

San Antonio @ New York
PICK: San Antonio -5

There's an old adage that says it's "better to be lucky than good." Well, this season, Gregg Popovich's Spurs have been both. San Antonio's marched out to a league-best 29-4 record (no surprise to me, since I'm sitting on a 40-1 ticket on the Spurs to win the Championship, as well as a ticket on S.A. to win over 50.5 games). But, lately, the Spurs have been luckier than a leprechaun carrying a rabbit's foot. Sure, San Antonio has won 14 of its last 15 games, but among its wins it defeated Atlanta when Joe Johnson was sidelined with injury; Denver twice when it was without Chauncey Billups for one, and without Carmelo Anthony for the other; Memphis when Rudy Gay sat out with suspension; Phoenix immediately after the Suns' trade with the Magic which left Phoenix' roster depleted; Washington without Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, who were both suspended; and Dallas without star Dirk Nowitzki. And, now, the Spurs catch their eighth break in their last 16 games when they'll face the Knicks minus Danilo Gallinari, who is New York's 4th leading scorer at 15.6 ppg. (And the breaks continue tomorrow when the Spurs travel to Boston to take on the Celtics minus Kevin Garnett.) In contrast, the Spurs are one of two teams in the league (the Lakers being the other) who have had the same starting lineup for every game this season. Yes, in sports, it is important to have talent, and play hard. But don't underestimate the importance of injuries on a team's overall success. I like the Spurs tonight, as San Antone has been idle since Saturday, and the Spurs are 96-68 ATS their last 154 when playing with at least two days' of rest. One of the strengths of San Antonio is that it is comfortable playing any style of basketball. If you want to run up and down the court, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will be more than happy to outrun your defenders for easy baskets in transition (while the Spurs' defenders will get back to make enough stops to notch a win). And if you want to play a halfcourt game, that's fine, too, as Tim Duncan will patrol the paint, and the Spurs will play solid defense around the perimeter. Here, of course, Mike D'antoni will have his troops try to outrun the Spurs. Unfortunately, for the Knicks, the Spurs are the league's top 3-point shooting team (making 40% from long distance), and are shooting 47.1% overall (vs. foes otherwise giving up 45.5%). The Knicks are shooting a half-percent worse, overall; are 2.8% worse from 3-point territory; and are 1.4% worse with their defensive FG percentage. And New York also commits 2 more turnovers and 2 more personal fouls per game. The one big advantage New York enjoys is Amare Stoudemire, whom S.A. had great difficulty guarding in last year's playoff series vs. the Suns. But that one advantage won't be enough. Lay the points with the Spurs.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Buffalo Sabres @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Colorado Avalanche

Good line value here on a well rested and motivated home side that is coming off back to back losses, including a disheartening 2-1 defeat to the Canucks on Sunday night.

The Avs are 20-14-5 on the year, but have just one victory in their last six games.

Colorado though is 7-6 (+1.8 units) this season in "non-conference" contests.

On the other side of the ice are the Buffalo Sabres who are 16-18-4 on the year; Buffalo is off back to back victories, including a 7-6 SO victory at home over Boston on Sunday; suffice to say I expect a letdown here.

Buffalo has been extremely susceptible to "letdowns" in this spot all season; a horrible 2-7 (-7.2 units), after scoring 4 or more goals in its previous contest.

“It’s a fine line,” Avs forward Kevin Porter said. “… We don’t want to panic, but we definitely have to come out and play well against Buffalo (on Tuesday) night. We need to start getting on a winning streak here, because the Western Conference is so tight.”

Although both Colorado goaltenders have been shaky of late, Peter Budaj, who gets the start this evening, is 2-1-0 with a 1.46 GAA lifetime vs. Buffalo.

Sabres goalie Ryan Miller is a sub-par 4-5-0 with a 3.73 GAA in his last nine-starts overall; I expect him to have another difficult time against this determined Colorado team.

Consider a wager on the Avalanche.

EZWINNERS

San Antonio Spurs -5.5

Since losing to the Magic just before Christmas in a game where the Spurs allowed Orlando to score 123 points, San Antonio has clamped down on the defensive end of the court. The Spurs have held three out of their last four opponents to 82 points or less and I expect them to come up with another big defensive effort in this game against the Knicks. San Antonio is only allowing an average of 82.3 points on 37.1 percent shooting in their last four games which includes holding the Lakers to 82 points on Tuesday. The Spurs did a good job defensively against New York in sweeping last season's series, limiting the Knicks to 88 and 87 points in the two games. This year it will be a tougher task with Amare Stoudemire now in a New York uniform, but the Knicks will be without starting forward Danilo Gallinari who is out with a knee sprain. New York is just 1-9 against San Antonio since 2005 and the Spurs are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against the Eastern Conference. Lay the points.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

DePaul + over West Virginia

The Mounties are 0-4 ATS on the road and 0-5 ATS in Tuesday battles. Plus, the visitor is a horrid 1-4 ATS off a SU loss. Home standing DePaul comes in with a solid 6-2 SU record at home, while yet challenged in various aspects of the game. Despite out manned recently in the Big East the Demons show at 11-5 ATS in conference. Further, they hit a perfect cord of 5-0 ATS versus units with a .600 SU or better. Finally, if DePaul frosh Cleveland Melvin continues his current pace an outright UPSET would be no surprise. Good Luck, and call us today and start winning.

Tom Freese

Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

Toronto is 11-22 straight up this year. The Raptors are 3-7 ATS vs. NBA Central teams. Toronto is 1-4-1 ATS their last games overall. The Raptors are 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games as underdogs. The Raptors 1-5 ATS their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning home record. Chicago is 22-10 straight up this year. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS their last 6 Tuesday games. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Chicago is 11-4 ATS their last 15 games off an ATS loss. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0 to 10.5

David Chan

Sabres @ Avalanche
PICK: Under 5.5

I bet value where I see it, and think the "under" is the way to go in this non-conference matchup between the Buffalo Sabres (16-18-4), and the Colorado Avalanche (20-14-5).

The Sabres enter this game having won two in a row, including a huge 7-6 victory over the Bruins on January 1st.

Before the back to back victories, Buffalo had struggled to find the back of the net; note that the Sabres have seen the total go "under" the number in 9 of 15 vs. teams with winning records this season.

Although he's struggled of late, Ryan Miller will look to bounce back tonight against a team that he's historically played well against (he's just just 0-1-1 in his last two vs. Colorado but with a 1.93 GAA).

Peter Budaj gets the nod between the pipes for the home side and he's 2-1-0 with a 1.46 GAA in three career starts vs. the Sabres.

Colorado is just 1-4-1 its last six overall and has just nine goals, including going just 2 of 21 with the man advantage, over that span.

All signs point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this contest!

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +1.56 over WASHINGTON

The Caps have won a lot of hockey games during the Alex Ovechkin era but in terms of big games at key moments there has been few. The Caps are the Eastern Conference version of the San Jose Sharks. They’ve dominated the regular season and then bowed out in the playoffs and this year they look a lot more vulnerable than past seasons. The reason for mentioning this is because the Caps are coming off one of their biggest wins in a long time with herds of media and other distractions that surrounded that circus on New Year’s Day. There’s a great chance we’ll see a big letdown here, just like we saw with Philly last year when they lost to Ottawa, 7-4 the next game after winning the Winter Classic. Even if there is no letdown, the Bolts still have a great shot at winning this contest. Tampa comes in as one of the hottest teams in the league. They’ve won four of five and have picked up points in 10 of its last 11 games. They’ll also play in front of newly acquired Dwayne Roloson for the first time and surely they’ll want to put forth a strong effort for their new goaltender. The Caps, too, are hot with five wins in six games but three of those wins came against teams under .500 and one other came against the laboring Canadiens. The Caps are very beatable these days with a shaky defense, with scoring way down and with unstable goaltending. Overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +1.56 (Risking 2 units).

PHOENIX -½ +1.14 over Columbus

The Coyotes have scored 14 goals in their last three games but have just one win to show for it. That’s not the team we’re used to seeing. This is a Phoenix team that plays responsibly in its own end and that has forwards that always play strong defensively. They’ve gotten away from that but you can be 1000% sure that problem has been addressed over the last 24 hours after the Coyotes dominated the Wild in Minnesota, rallied from a two-goal third period deficit to take a 5-4 lead only to blow it with 26 seconds remaining and subsequently losing 6-5 in OT. Expect a big dose of “Coyote hockey” for this one against perhaps the ripest team to get beat in the NHL at the moment. The Jackets have won three of four but pay no attention to that, as they were the second best team on the ice in all three wins and have been the second best team on the ice just about every game for the past five to six weeks. The Jackets have no fire in them whatsoever and there’s more to this than meets the eye. This team has quit on their coach, Scott Arniel, and from reading all the newspaper articles and blogs, we’ve ascertained that Arniel is really not the type of coach that players take to. The Jackets are not having fun and it’s reflecting in their efforts. Columbus has just one road win over their last nine games and a hungry Coyotes team that is steaming from that aforementioned last game should really take care of business here. Play: Phoenix -½ +1.14 (Risking 2 units).

Nelly

Minnesota - over Indiana

The Gophers are 0-2 in the Big Ten, taking a big fall after an 11-1 start to the season. This is still an impressive Minnesota team, especially on the defensive end. Minnesota lost by eight at Wisconsin and by nine at Michigan State but both games stayed very close until the final minutes and those are arguably the toughest two road venues in the conference. Minnesota has failed to cover in seven of the last eight games to keep this line in check but in a 0-2 conference hole this will be a critical bounce back game. Indiana has not been as competitive as most expected this season and while the Hoosiers may compete in home games this will not be a team to back on the road. Indiana is also 0-2 in the Big Ten but both games came at home and ultimately both games were lopsided losses. Minnesota won by 23 when these teams last met in Minneapolis and the Hoosiers are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 Big Ten games despite often getting a lot of points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Toronto Raptors +8.5

Winning at Chicago has been no problem for the Raptors. In fact, Toronto has averaged 107.2 points and held Chicago to 93.2 in winning five of the last six meetings (3 Straight) at the United Center. Toronto will be motivated by a poor performance against Boston Sunday, and it will also be in a lot better shape with Andrea Bargnani and Jerryd Bayless expected to return. The Raptors have been a solid road investment because of how much they are normally undervalued south of the border. In fact, they are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 road games. It is also worth noting that they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Lastly, we can't ignore the fact that Toronto is 4-0-2 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Bulls have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games and four of their last five, and they have been overvalued again tonight. Take the points.