Matt Fargo
So Illinois vs. Bradley
Play: Bradley -2
Bradley has started the season 0-2 in the MVC but this is the best opportunity to notch the first conference win of the season. The Braves lost on the road in their conference opener and then were defeated badly at home on Saturday against preseason MVC favorite Wichita St. With two road games looming on Friday and Sunday, this game turns into a really big one to avoid a possible 0-5 start to the season in conference action. The Braves were 2-4 in the conference last season before rallying to finish 9-9. The Salukis evened their MVC record at 1-1 with a narrow two-point win over rebuilding Northern Iowa on Saturday. Southern Illinois lost its opener at Drake which was the sixth straight conference road loss dating back to last season. The Salukis’ average of 16.6 tpg is by far the worst in the league. Considering Southern Illinois is not an up-tempo team, the giveaways become more problematic. The Salukis are ranked last in the MVC in turnover margin (minus-4.3) and assist/turnover ratio (0.70). Southern Illinois will likely be shorthanded tonight as leading scorer and leading rebounder center Gene Teague has been downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury. Head coach Chris Lowery pretty much ruled him out yesterday. “At this point, we’re not going to play him,” Lowery said Monday. “He’s a big guy and when big guys have foot injuries, you don’t want to rush them back because (the injury will) linger.” That is a big break for the would-have-been undersized Braves. Meanwhile, Bradley’s Andrew Warren is MVC’s leading scorer and a potential nightmare matchup at power forward with his ability to play outside the arc. Southern Illinois is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a home win and 3-15 in its last 18 games following one or more wins anywhere. Bradley meanwhile is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games at home following two consecutive games playing as an underdog. The Braves notch their first conference victory Tuesday. 3* Bradley Braves
John Ryan
Detroit Pistons vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -12
5* graded play on the Los Angeles Lakers as they take on the Detroit Pistons set to start at 10:30 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Lakers will win this game by a minimum of 14 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1996. Play on home teams off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite facing an opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as a dog. Detroit is finishing a three game road trip losing the first two and covering the last game at Utah. They played competitive basketball against the Jazz losing 102-97 and were installed as 8 1/2 point dogs. The Lakers are losers of four of the last six games and have covered just one of them. They were absolutely humiliated by Memphis losing 104-85 installed as 9 1/2 point favorites and for one of the rare times in Staples Arena history the Lakers were loudly booed. Jackson is the best coach in the NBA, if not the best all-time, and he will get this team ‘fixed’ and playing like a team. Mentioning that Kobe made the huge mistake of trying to take over the game in one-on-one situations was fact and Kobe has not taken Jackson’s public comments as an attack on him. I truly believe you will see the defending Champion Lakers style of play tonight focused on executing the ‘triangle’ offense and it will be sustained for a long time. Detroit has no answer for the Laker big men in Gasol, Odem, and Bynum. Kobe’s job tonight will be to keep pounding the ball into the paint and allow the three big men to dominate the paint. When Detroit brings double team defensive help to the paint Kobe will have wide open looks. This is the root of the ‘triangle’ offense and that is what the Lakers will execute tonight. Detroit is an imperfect 0-10 ATS in road games after having lost four of their last five games over the last two seasons. Take the Lakers.
Rocketman Sports
Indiana vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -9
Indiana is 1-5 ATS last 3 years when the total is between 140 and 149 1/2. Indiana is 1-6 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Indiana is 0-4 SU on the road this year where they are allowing 78.5 points per game. Hoosiers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games. Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. Hoosiers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Hoosiers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Hoosiers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. Hoosiers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big Ten. Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Hoosiers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Hoosiers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Golden Gophers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5
Expect the Thunder to bounce back strong following an embarrassing defeat to San Antonio last time out. The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Grizzlies, including a perfect 4-0 ATS at Memphis during this span. Plus, OKC is 9-0 ATS in road games after a game where it made 20% of its 3 point shots or worse over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 105.0 to 95.3 in this situation. The Grizzlies are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Bet the Thunder.
Jack Jones
Miami Heat -9.5
The Miami Heat are rolling, and I'll back them tonight to win by double-digits against a depleted Milwaukee Buckes team at home. The Heat are 18-1 SU & 12-6-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Milwaukee has dropped 5 of their last 8 with each of their last three losses coming by 13 points or more. The Bucks are playing without four of their best players in Brandon Jennings, Drew Gooden, Carlos Delfino and Michael Redd. This is a team that simply cannot compete with a team like Miami with the line-up they have to throw out on the court.
Miami beat Milwaukee in their first meeting this season 88-78 on the road. I expect the BUcks to struggle to find offense tonight with all of their injuries, especially against this Miami defense that is one of the best in the league. The Heat are allowing just 92.0 PPG on the season, and the Bucks are scoring just 90.6 PPG this year. Miami is putting up 103.0 PPG at home this year where they are 14-4, outscoring opponents by 9.9 PPG. The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet Miami Tuesday.
Ben Burns
Buffalo Sabres @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Colorado Avalanche
The Sabres are off back to back wins. They followed up a 4-2 win at Edmonton with a wild 7-6 victory over Boston on New Year's day. The Sabres don't typically fare too well off those type of games though.
Buffalo is a money-burning 24-35 (-18.2) the past few seasons, after allowing more than four goals in its previous game. That includes a 5-9 (-5) mark this season.
Additionally, the Sabres are 27-37 (-17.7) the past few seasons, after having scored four or more goals in their previous game. That includes a 2-7 record this season.
Having lost two straight and five of six, the Avalanche, 10-5 (+3.7) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5, figure to be extremely "hungry."
The Avs are 3-0 against the Sabres since 2007. Most recently, they won 4-3, at Buffalo, almost exactly one year ago. Consider Colorado
JR O'Donnell
Oklahoma City -1
Boys the 15-19 Grizzlies are flat out owned by Kevin Durant who averages 33.7 ppg against them! Nice time to fade the Grizzlies after a 104 - 85 win vs Kobe, The 23-12 Okie Thunder got pasted by the Spurs by 27 and now open a favorite vs these poor Grizzlies. The Thunder a respectable 10-6 on the road and have a 4-1 series mark here vs the Grizzlies....Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite make it 9-2 after tonight!!!
Brent Brooks |
Minnesota / Indiana Under 139
Minnesota is coming off two straight road losses @Wisconsin and @Michigan State. Some of the luster is off Minnesota's surprising non-conference schedule. Indiana is coming off a game in which Ohio State shot the lights out in Bloomington. As both teams are hungry for a conference win, I expect the defensive intensity in this game to ratchet up and put a damper scoring.
Christian Watford's knee is still not right as he was grimacing throughout the loss to Ohio State. Without Watford dropping in 20, Indiana will stay in the low to mid 60s leaving room for Minnesota to stretch into the 70s and still not bust this total.
Spartan
Chicago -9
I like our chances here tonight with a Bulls team that has been playing well and is gunning for their fifth straight win here tonight against a Raptors club that comes limping into town. Toronto has now dropped 11 of the last 14 games and it appears they are settling in for yet another long, dismal season for their fans. While the Raptors are hopeful that Bargnani and Bayless will be back on the floor tonight it doubtful either one will be playing at 100%. Those who follow me know I don't hang my hat exclusively on trends but the stubborn fact is the Raptors are a downright lousy 20-41 against the number when taking to the court as a dog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Well if the shoe fits as they say. I look for the Bulls to pull away here in the final quarter and cruise. Thanks as always guys and best of luck to us this evening!