SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
ORANGE BOWL
(at Miami, Fla.)
(10) Iowa (10-2, 7-4 ATS) vs. (9) Georgia Tech (11-2, 8-4 ATS)
Two teams in the BCS spotlight for the first time collide when Iowa gets away from the Midwestern chill with a trip to LandShark Stadium to take on the Yellow Jackets.
The Hawkeyes made a stunning run at the Big Ten title, winning their first nine games SU while going 6-2 ATS in lined contests. But Iowa slipped up in a most unlikely spot, losing at home to Northwestern 17-10 as an overwhelming 14-point chalk on Nov. 7 to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. The Hawkeyes followed a week later with a hard-fought 27-24 overtime loss as a huge 16½-point ‘dog at Ohio State, giving the Buckeyes the conference crown and the Rose Bowl berth.
Kirk Ferentz’s troops wrapped up the regular season Nov. 21 with a 12-0 home win over Minnesota, falling just short of cashing as a 12½-point favorite to finish on a 1-2 SU and ATS skid.
After losing at Miami 33-17 as a four-point pup to fall to 2-1 SU (0-2 ATS), Georgia Tech went on an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) to gain a berth in the ACC championship game. The Jackets lost to in-state rival Georgia, from the SEC, 30-24 as a hefty 9½-point home chalk on Nov. 28 to halt their winning streak. However, they bounced back in the conference title tilt by outlasting Clemson 39-34 laying one point at Tampa Bay’s Raymond James Stadium, finishing the year on a 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS roll.
This Orange Bowl clash marks the first meeting between these two schools.
Iowa is in the postseason for the second straight year and the eighth time in the past nine years. Last January 1, the Hawkeyes rolled over South Carolina 31-10 as a 3½-point favorite in the Outback Bowl, giving them a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in bowls under Ferentz, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl starts. Iowa also played in the Orange Bowl following the 2002 season, losing to Southern Cal 38-17 as a 4½-point pup.
Georgia Tech is playing in a bowl game for the 13th consecutive year, but the Jackets have gone 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS the past four years in the postseason. Last year, the team’s first under current coach Paul Johnson, Tech was practically playing a home game in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl at the Georgia Dome, but got plastered by LSU 38-3 as a four-point chalk.
The Hawkeyes rode their defense to success this season, allowing just 286.7 total ypg (10th nationally), including a pass defense that yielded just 164.7 ypg, good for ninth in the country. Iowa also rated ninth in scoring defense, at a stifling 15.5 ppg, and forced 29 turnovers (20 INTs, 9 fumbles), though the Hawkeyes finished with just a plus-3 turnover margin. Tyler Sash had six INTs.
Offensively, Iowa was below average in the Football Bowl Subdivision, putting up 330.8 ypg (93rd), including just 109.4 rushing ypg (103rd), while scoring 23.1 ppg (86th). QB Richard Stanzi passed for 2,186 yards and 15 TDs, but he also threw 14 INTs. Wideout Marvin McNutt led the Hawkeyes with seven TD catches and was second in receiving yards (653, 21.8 ypg), just behind Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (687, 16.8 ypg). RBs Adam Robinson (775 yards) and Brandon Wegher (529 yards) combined for 1,304 yards.
The Yellow Jackets’ vaunted triple-option attack averaged a whopping 307.2 rushing ypg, second nationally, for an offense that netted 442.7 total ypg (11th) and 35.3 ppg (13th). QB Josh Nesbitt was the dual threat, passing for 1,689 yards and 10 TDs, with four INTs, and rushing for another 991 yards and a team-leading 16 scores. RB Jonathan Dwyer (1,345 yards, 14 TDs) averaged 6.1 ypc, and RB Anthony Allen (597 yards, 5 TDs) had an eye-popping 9.8 ypc average.
Georgia Tech’s defense finished pretty much middle-of-the-pack in all key categories in the regular season, allowing 357 ypg (53rd), including 206.9 in the air (44th) and 150.1 on the ground (67th), while giving up 24.8 ppg (56th).
The Hawkeyes are on a bundle of pointspread rolls, including 9-4 overall, 36-17 getting points (4-0 this year), 4-1 as a bowl underdog, 4-1 in non-conference action, 6-1 after a non-cover and 10-3 against winning teams. The Yellow Jackets, meanwhile, sport positive ATS streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 laying points and 6-2 after a SU win, but they are in spread-covering ruts of 1-4 on neutral fields and 2-5 as a bowl favorite.
Iowa is on “under” tears of 23-11-2 overall, 13-3-1 outside the Big Ten, 4-1 against winning teams, 11-3-1 catching points and 16-6-2 following a SU win, and the under for Georgia Tech is on upswings of 4-1-1 after a SU win, 4-1-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a spread-cover. However, the Jackets are on “over” surges of 6-1 in bowl games, 5-1 as a postseason favorite, 6-2-1 outside the ACC and 5-2 at neutral stadiums.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) at (4) Purdue (13-0, 6-6-1 ATS)
Minnesota takes a seven-game winning streak into Mackay Arena, where it looks to end the Boilermakers’ perfect record in a Big Ten clash.
The Golden Gophers closed the non-conference season with five straight blowout wins over inferior foes (32-point average margin of victory), then began Big Ten play with a tough 75-70 home win over Penn State (failing to cover as a 13-point home chalk) and an 86-74 rout of Iowa (cashing as a 10-point favorite). Minnesota is 6-1 ATS during its seven-game winning streak, scoring 86 points or more in six of the games and topping 90 points four times.
Purdue rallied for a 67-56 win over Iowa on Dec. 29 in its Big Ten opener (falling short as a 14½-point road favorite), then came home Friday and pummeled undefeated and sixth-ranked West Virginia 77-62 as a 4½-point chalk in a non-conference game. While Minnesota boasts one of the nation’s top offenses (averaging 80.7 ppg on 48.9 percent shooting), the Boilermakers are stout on defense, holding nine straight opponents to 65 points or less (allowing 57.7 ppg in those games and 59.8 ppg overall on 40 percent shooting).
Purdue has won and covered three straight meetings with Minnesota, including last year’s 70-62 triumph as a one-point road underdog. The home team had gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the previous five clashes, and the SU winner is 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 in this rivalry.
Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS surge is offset by pointspread slumps of 5-12 in Big Ten play and 2-10 on the road. The Boilermakers ended an 0-3 ATS slump with Friday’s easy spread-cover against West Virginia, and they’re 5-0-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a winning record, but 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven following a spread-cover.
The Gophers are on “over” runs of 6-1 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten action, 5-1 after a SU win and 14-6-1 on Tuesday, while Purdue carries “over” trends of 5-2 overall and 4-1 at home. Finally, last year’s meeting between these teams barely went over the posted total, ending a 9-0 “under” run in this rivalry (5-0 “under” at Purdue). None of the last 10 meetings have featured more than last year’s 132 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(2) Texas (13-0, 7-2 ATS) at Arkansas (7-7, 2-4 ATS)
Texas plays its final tune-up before the start of the Big 12 campaign with a visit to Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark., for a non-conference battle with the mediocre Razorbacks.
The Longhorns survived a surprising scare against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi on Saturday, holding on for a 76-70 win in a non-lined home game. It was the first time all season that Texas failed to win a game by double digits. In fact, the Longhorns have posted 10 wins of 16 points or more, including a 77-59 rout of Rice in their only true road game to this point, though they just missed as an 18½-point chalk in that one. Texas is outscoring opponents by nearly 27 ppg (86.3-59.6) and shooting 49.3 percent while allowing 34.5 percent.
Arkansas has followed up a five-game winning streak (only one of them lined games) with consecutive losses to Baylor (70-47 as a four-point neutral-site ‘dog) and UAB (73-72 as a four-point home pup). The Razorbacks have already suffered four home losses, all against teams from non-power conferences (Morgan State, East Tennessee State, South Alabama and UAB). With the exception of a three-game stretch against non-lined opponents, Arkansas has struggled defensively, allowing 67 points or more in 10 of its other 11 games (76.5 ppg in those 11 contests).
Arkansas upset Texas 67-61 as a 4½-point home underdog exactly one year ago. The other recent meeting was in 2006, and the Longhorns barely held on for an 80-76 win, but the ‘Hogs again cashed as an 8½-point road underdog.
Texas sports ATS runs of 9-2 overall (all in non-conference play) and 21-8-1 on Tuesday, but the Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against SEC opponents and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine roadies. The Razorbacks are in ATS funks of 2-7 overall, 5-16 versus Big 12 foes, 2-6 against winning teams and 1-4 both after a SU loss and ATS setback.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for Texas on the road, 4-1 for Texas against the SEC, 12-5 for Texas after a SU win and 4-1 for Arkansas at home, though the Razorbacks have stayed low in five of their last seven lined contests overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
(19) New Mexico (14-1, 10-3-1 ATS) at San Diego State (11-3, 6-5 ATS)
Two of the top teams in the Mountain West Conference begin league play against one another, as 19th-ranked New Mexico takes on the Aztecs at Viejas Arena.
The Lobos barely got past Dayton on New Year’s Day, holding on for a 68-66 victory – the team’s 19th straight home win – but coming up way short as an 8½-point favorite. New Mexico has won two in a row since a stunning 75-66 loss at Oral Roberts in a non-lined road game on Dec 23. Steve Alford’s squad has scored 66, 66, and 68 points in three of its last four contests following a 10-game stretch in which it tallied at least 75 points each time out, including more than 80 points nine times.
San Diego State followed up a 55-52 loss at Arizona State as a five-point underdog with a trio of victories at Drake (76-73 in overtime as a 7½-point road favorite), U.C. Riverside (58-53 as a 17-point home chalk) and Pomona-Pitzer (89-54 in a non-lined home game). The Aztecs are 8-1 SU in their last nine games (5-3 ATS in lined action), and they’re 7-0 at home (3-2 ATS), outscoring visitors by 22 ppg (75.6-53.6) and outshooting them 49.8 percent to 35.9 percent.
These squads split their season series last year, with the home team winning each time and New Mexico getting the cash in both contests, including an 81-76 loss in San Diego as a six-point underdog. The Lobos have covered in each of the last three meetings, 10 of the last 13 and six straight in San Diego. Also, the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight battles.
New Mexico failed to cover in four of its final five Mountain West contests last year, but otherwise it is on positive ATS runs of 12-3-1 overall, 4-0 on Tuesday, 9-3-1 after a SU victory and 6-1 against winning opponents. SDSU also struggled in conference down the stretch last year, failing to cover in seven of its last 10, but the Aztecs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 lined home games.
The over is on a 4-1 roll in this rivalry, and New Mexico has topped the total in four straight games on Tuesday. However, San Diego State is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 44-21 overall, 39-12 at home and 9-2 in league games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO
NBA
Houston (20-14 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (27-6, 14-19 ATS)
The Lakers, once again surging after three straight victories, look to avenge one of their six defeats when they host the Rockets at the Staples Center.
Houston has been off since Saturday’s 99-95 loss at New Orleans as a 2½-point road underdog. The Rockets have been experiencing consistency issues lately, splitting their last six games (2-4 ATS), and they’re 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road during this stretch with the one victory coming at lowly New Jersey. The offense has been the main issue over the past six games, averaging just 96.8 points and reaching triple digits just once.
After a pair of shaky home wins and non-covers over the Kings and Warriors, Los Angeles destroyed the Mavericks 131-96 as a 6½-point home favorite on Sunday, ending a 1-5 ATS funk. Seven players scored in double figures, as the Lakers posted their first double-digit home win since Dec. 11, a span of five contests. L.A. is putting up 115.8 ppg over its last five games, but prior to shutting down Dallas on Sunday, Phil Jackson’s squad had given up more than 100 points in six straight games (109.5 ppg).
On their way to the NBA title last year, the Lakers struggled to put away Houston, needing seven games to win the second-round series (4-3 ATS). The Rockets got a tiny measure of revenge on Nov. 15 when they went to Staples Center and rolled 101-91 as a nine-point underdog. Despite that upset, Houston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Hollywood, and the host has cashed in five of the last six battles (playoffs included).
Houston’s 0-4 ATS slide on the road is offset by positive ATS streaks of 5-1 against Western Conference foes, 9-3-1 after getting two days of rest, 35-16 after a SU defeat and 40-17 after a non-cover. L.A. is in pointspread ruts of 4-9 overall, 1-5 at home, 0-5 on Tuesday, 2-5 after one day of rest, 2-6 against Western Conference foes and 1-4 after a SU victory.
The Rockets carry “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the road and 25-11 after a non-cover, and five of the Lakers’ last six games against winning opponents have stayed low. However, the over for L.A. is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 4-1 at home and 6-0 versus Western Conference foes. Finally, the under is 5-1 both in the last six meetings between these teams overall and the last six clashes in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Andrew Bucciarelli
3* Pittsburgh Penguins (-140 Regulation) over Atlanta Thrasher
The Pittsburgh Penguins went through a few rough patches last season before winning the Stanley Cup, none worse than a five-game losing streak from late December into early January. Almost a year to the day after halting a five-game slide by beating Atlanta at Mellon Arena, the Penguins hope to do it again Tuesday night with a seventh consecutive win over the reeling Thrashers. The Penguins haven't lost six in a row since going 0-5-2 from Jan. 28-Feb. 8, 2006. Evgeni Malkin has five goals and eight assists in his last four games versus Atlanta, which has lost eight straight (0-5-3) -- the last six on the road.
Take PITTSBURGH in Regualtion 3***
2* Florida Panthers (+120) over Toronto Maple Leafs
Florida, however, has outscored the Leafs 16-5 while winning three straight at Air Canada Centre. Plus, Toronto has allowed three goals in each game of its current 1-3-2 stretch, including consecutive 3-1 defeats to end a three-game road swing. Toronto (14-19-9) has lost seven of nine overall, getting outscored 29-18, and failed to capitalize on four power-play chances in Saturday night's loss to Calgary. Since scoring two power-play goals against Florida, the Maple Leafs are 6 for 55 with the man advantage -- 0 for 10 in their past three home games. Even worse, Toronto lost two centers to injury Saturday. Wayne Primeau will be out at least two weeks after hurting his knee, and Mikhail Grabovski is expected to miss six weeks with a broken wrist.
Take FLORIDA 2**
1* Chicago Blackhawks (-230) over Minnesota Wild
Thanks to their high-powered offense, almost everything is going right lately for the Chicago Blackhawks, especially at home. A struggling defense, meanwhile, has cooled off the Minnesota Wild. Chicago, among the league leaders with 3.17 goals per game, also scored five goals for the third consecutive home game Sunday night against Anaheim. Patrick Kane also extended his point streak to eight games, one shy of his career high set Oct. 30-Nov.21, as he assisted on a pair of goals. While the Blackhawks are among the NHL's best defensive teams in allowing 2.07 goals per game, the Wild are one of the league's worst over the past 2 1/2 weeks. Since winning 10 of 13, Minnesota have given up 29 goals during a 3-5-0 stretch. The Wild have also allowed at least three in each of their last five contests and at least four in three straight defeats, including a 5-3 home loss to New Jersey on Saturday night.
Take CHICAGO 1*
1* Edmonton Oilers (+111) over Phoenix Coyotes
The Oilers look to avoid a third consecutive loss while trying for a sixth straight home victory over the Coyotes on Tuesday night. Even during their worst stretch of the season, the Edmonton Oilers might not mind facing the surprisingly successful Phoenix Coyotes. Jeff Deslauriers made 36 saves for his first career shutout in his first appearance against Phoenix earlier this season, but he has a 3.25 goals-against average while losing eight of his last nine starts in place of the injured Nikolai Khabibulin. With a 22-11-4 record and 2.03 GAA, Ilya Bryzgalov has been a big reason for the Coyotes' success, but he's looking to end a three-game losing streak. Bryzgalov is 2-5-0 with a 3.97 GAA against the Oilers after making 21 saves in the November loss.
Take EDMONTON 1*
Tom Freese
Iowa at Illinois
Play: Illinois
Illinois is a 49-17 ATS Play ON System that says to play on winning teams that have lost ATS in four or more straight games if they scored 80 or more points in their last game. Iowa is 3-10 ATS their last 13 games overall and they are 19-37 ATS their last 56 games vs. teams who shoot 18 or less free throws a game. The Hawkeyes are 62-91 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage of 60% to 80%. PLAY ON ILLINOIS -
JR TIPS
CLIPPERS at SPURS
The San Antonio Spurs go for their 14th straight victory over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight and look to improve to 12-1 against teams under .500. The Spurs won 100-99 victory over Indiana Saturday. Tim Duncan scored 19 points matching a season high with 16 rebounds as he is averaging 26.7 points, 15.0 boards in his last three games while scoring 21 points in a 115-90 win in os Angeles on Dec. 13th. The Spurs have also won 13 straight at home versus the Clippers since 2002 while the Clippers haven't beaten a team with a winning record since a 106-99 victory over Denver on Nov. 20th. The Clippers are on a six game road trip and won Saturday 112-107 in overtime over Philadelphia after letting a 20 point lead slip away losing to the New York Knicks the night before. The Clippers have won three of four improving to 2-1 on their road trip. Chris Kaman posted his fourth double-double in five games Saturday with 24 points and 11 rebounds and Baron Davis led the Clippers with 20 points and six assists off the bench. Tony Parker has shot just 29.2 percent and averaged 12.0 points in his last two home games but should get back on track as he led the Spurs with 18 points in Los Angeles' last visit to the AT&T Center in a 111-98 San Antonio victory. The Spurs are 41-4 against the Clippers since 1997 and will continue to dominate the Clippers as they are playing their 4th game on the road winning in very close games where they gave away leads. The Clippers won’t have enough to stay in this game as the rested Spurs who are on a 4-game homestand will run this team out of the building in the second half.
TAKE SPURS -8.5
EZWINNERS
Pheonix Suns -2.5
After a surprising start to the season the Sacramento Kings are slumping. Losers of six out of their last nine games they find themselves hosting a Phoenix Suns team that has owned them for the last three seasons. Phoenix has won eight out of the last nine meetings between these two teams and I expect the Suns to seduce this young Kings team into playing at Phoenix's fast pace. Sacramento is only 4-13 against the spread in their last seventeen games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Lay the points.
JIM FEIST
HOUSTON ROCKETS / LOS ANGELES LAKERS
TAKE: LOS ANGELES LAKERS
The Lakers are playing like the defening champs, winning 9 of 11. A problem for the Rockets without Yao Mings that they are a much shorter team and the Lakers have a huge frontcourt. Houston is 2-4 ATS the last 6 games, including a 25-point loss at Cleveland and a 14-point loss at Orlando. This is their 5th road game over the last 7 games, while the Lakers have played the most home games in the NBA. Play the LA Lakers.
DUNKEL INDEX
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
The Hawkeyes look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Iowa is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Georgia Tech favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+5 1/2)
Game 263-264: Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 96.395; Georgia Tech 99.965
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 3 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 5 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+5 1/2); Over
NBA
Chicago at Charlotte
The Bobcats look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Charlotte is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-6 1/2)
Game 701-702: Orlando at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 120.844; Indiana 115.612
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 5; 199
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 703-704: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.622; Philadelphia 118.163
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 207
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-4); Under
Game 705-706: Chicago at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.239; Charlotte 124.197
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 9; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 6 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-6 1/2); Under
Game 707-708: Milwaukee at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 110.958; New Jersey 113.553
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 2 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+1 1/2); Under
Game 709-710: Detroit at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 109.309; Dallas 121.182
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 12; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 8 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-8 1/2); Under
Game 711-712: Golden State at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 113.641; Denver 121.744
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 8; 229
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 713-714: Phoenix at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 122.491; Sacramento 117.624
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 226
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 227
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2 1/2); Under
Game 715-716: Memphis at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 124.024; Portland 121.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 717-718: Houston at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.767; LA Lakers 126.147
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Rhode Island at Akron
The Zips are coming off an 85-76 win at Wyoming and look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Akron is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Zips favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Akron
Game 719-720: Georgia Tech at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 66.043; Georgia 60.995
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 5
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+5 1/2)
Game 721-722: Rhode Island at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 62.450; Akron 64.543
Dunkel Line: Akron by 2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Akron
Game 723-724: Southern Mississippi at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 51.466; Marshall 64.617
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 13
Vegas Line: Marshall by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-7 1/2)
Game 725-726: Texas at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 76.424; Arkansas 61.149
Dunkel Line: Texas by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 16
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+16)
Game 727-728: Notre Dame at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 62.630; South Florida 65.168
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+2)
Game 729-730: Minnesota at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 72.640; Purdue 78.693
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 6
Vegas Line: Purdue by 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8)
Game 731-732: Central Florida at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 54.007; Mississippi 71.643
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 16
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-16)
Game 733-734: Ball State at Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 49.576; Dayton 68.273
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Dayton by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-17 1/2)
Game 735-736: Miami (OH) at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 54.542; Colorado 61.169
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+7 1/2)
Game 737-738: Iowa at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 55.967; Illinois 70.188
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 14
Vegas Line: Illinois by 16
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+16)
Game 739-740: New Mexico at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 65.569; San Diego State 69.489
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 4
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 3
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-3)
NHL
Phoenix at Edmonton
The Oilers look to take advantage of a Phoenix team that is 3-7 in its last 10 road games. Edmonton is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Oilers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+105)
Game 1-2: Florida at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.060; Toronto 11.932
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-135); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-135); Over
Game 3-4: Dallas at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.297; New Jersey 12.306
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-170); Over
Game 5-6: Montreal at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.214; Washington 11.672
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-210); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-210); Over
Game 7-8: Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.179; Pittsburgh 10.967
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-230); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-230); Under
Game 9-10: Boston at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.992; Ottawa 11.397
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Over
Game 11-12: Minnesota at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.382; Chicago 11.909
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+200); Under
Game 13-14: Calgary at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.500; Nashville 11.321
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+100); Under
Game 15-16: Phoenix at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.687; Edmonton 11.413
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+120); Under
Game 17-18: Columbus at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.295; Vancouver 12.374
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-230); Over
Game 19-20: Detroit at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.598; Anaheim 11.007
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Dallas Mavericks to destroy the Detroit Pistons. When is the last time the Detroit Pistons won a game? When is the last time they covered a pointspread? Well, it was quite some time ago... a 104-95 win over the Golden State Warriors back on December 12. Exactly!! Nearly a month ago since the Pistons tasted the fruits of victory and there's no way they can walk into Dallas tonight and come away with anything more than a double digit loss. Dallas is looking to take out their frustrations on someone after the beatdown they just took in Los Angeles the other night. The Mavs are currently the second best team in the West, according to record, and aside from the 131 points the Lakers put on them, they've been playing better defense than I can remember them playing in a long time. What's amazing about the Pistons is that they got Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince back from injury, and they seem to have gotten worse. The only player doing anything worth a flip on that roster right now is Rodney Stuckey... Prince and Hamilton haven't done much of anything and enter tonight's game having just combined for 7 of 29 shooting in their last game. Mavs rout the Pistons at home.
5♦ DALLAS
Bobby Maxwell
Orlando -8' at INDIANA
I'm on a 42-19 run with my FREE selections, including 19-5 over the last 24 days. Today I've got a comp winner for you as I go to the NBA hardwood with the Magic taking on the Pacers in Indiana.
After that humiliating performance in Chicago on Saturday, the Magic have had a few days off to get ready for this one with the Pacers. Orlando is an outstanding road team while the Pacers have struggled this season, including a brutal loss on Sunday when they fell 132-89 to the Knicks.
Indiana is having trouble stopping anybody as they’ve allowed a whopping 116.4 points a game and 49.9 percent shooting to the opposition over the last five games. Meanwhile, the Magic have given up just 92 points a game over the last five.
Orlando beat the Pacers 106-98 back in mid-December and the Magic have won six of the last seven, including two of three in Indiana.
The Magic are on ATS runs of 21-8 on the road against teams with losing road records, 44-18 after a straight-up loss and 53-25-1 after a non-cover. Indiana is on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 at home, 8-21 after a non-cover and 5-16 after getting one day off.
Look for the Magic to deliver a 15-point win in this one. Play Orlando.
4♦ ORLANDO
Dominic Fazzini
Chicago at CHARLOTTE -6
I dealt out another winner with my complimentary selection Monday, winning easily as the underdog Thunder prevailed 98-85 at Chicago. That pushed my record to 53-32-1 over the past 86 days, including 36-19-1 over the last 56!
And I'm going to post another winner today, again taking a team to cover against the Bulls.
The Bobcats are coming off of two solid road wins, including their first ever at Cleveland. Now they return home, where they are 11-4 this season, holding opponents to 89.7 ppg. They gave up just 76 and 84 points, respectively, in their last two home games, against Detroit and Milwaukee.
Stephen Jackson has been outstanding lately, averaging 29 points over his last three games, and he has averaged 25.5 points in his last two games against Chicago.
The Bulls have lost their last two games at Charlotte, and are 3-11 on the road this season.
Chicago is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games, and having just lost Monday night at home to Oklahoma City, the Bulls are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games having played the day before. They are also 2-8 ATS as a road 'dog and 1-9 as an underdog of 5 to 10 1/2 points. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Take Charlotte to roll to victory today.
4♦ CHARLOTTE
Karl Garrett
Iowa +17 at ILLINOIS
Free play winner on Vanderbilt last night, 5-2 the last 7 days with my comp plays.
I know Iowa is not a very good team, but getting this many points?!?!!?
Illinois just lost a heartbreaker to Gonzaga in overtime in Chicago, and while they will be ready to shake that loss off, I don't think they are going to shake it off in blowout fashion.
The road team in this Big 10 rivalry has covered 7 of the last 10 series meetings, and short-term Iowa is on a 4-2 series spread run, covering the last 2 meetings.
Iowa has covered 2 of their last 3 when catching double-digits, while Illinois is on a 4 game spread slide, and have dropped 7 of their last 10 against the math as well.
Illinois gets their win, but they do not cover this big impost.
G-Man taking the Hawkeyes plus the points.
1♦ IOWA
Jeff Benton
New Mexico +3 at SAN DIEGO ST.
How about Monday’s free-play winner on the College of Charleston, which shocked ninth-ranked North Carolina in overtime as a 14-point home underdog? For Tuesday, we’ll stay on the hardwood and once again back an underdog, this time playing New Mexico plus the points at San Diego State.
The Lobos are 14-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on the season, which has pushed them all the way up to No. 15 in the national rankings. That includes three outright road wins. Speaking of the road, New Mexico historically has had a lot of success – at least from a pointspread perspective – at San Diego State recently, cashing in six straight trips to Aztec land. The Lobos are also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings with SDSU (including 3-0 ATS in the last three).
While New Mexico owns impressive victories over Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Cal and Dayton, the Aztecs really don’t have a quality win to speak of, unless you count a 63-46 rout of Arizona (which is way down this year). Since that victory over the Wildcats, SDSU has played three lined games. One was a three-point loss at Arizona State, and the other two were narrow home wins over Drake (76-73 in overtime) and UC Riverside (58-53). If the Aztecs can barely handle Drake and Riverside at home, how are they going to hang with the first ranked opponent they’ve faced all year, one that’s averaging better than 80 ppg?
Throw in the fact that the Lobos are on ATS runs of 12-3-1 overall and 6-1 as an underdog, while the road team has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry, and I’ll take the points with New Mexico.
4♦ NEW MEXICO
SPORTS WAGERS
Georgia Tech/Iowa under 50½
The total in this one is 50½ and those points are going to have to come from somewhere. If this game even comes close to going over the posted total one has to figure the Yellow Jackets to rack up most of them. The Hawkeyes had a great season indeed but this is a team that relies heavily on defense, as they have nothing but trouble generating offense. In no way can they get into any sort of shootout with the Jackets because they virtually have no shot should that occur. The Jackets usually are involved in high scoring games and in fact, just three of its 13 games went under the posted total of this game and that’s why this total is so high. However, both of these teams rely heavily on the run and both teams are strong against the run, especially the Hawkeyes, who allowed an average of just 122 yards per game on the ground. They also limited the opposition to just 15.5 points per game. So, what we’re going to see here is a heavy dose of running from both teams and very likely great defense from both as well. This is not ACC vs ACC. This is a defensive oriented Big-10 team that has to play a strong defensive game in order to have any chance at all. The great thing about going under in these games is that the teams featured have all been off for about five weeks or so and the offense is usually very rusty for at least the first half. 75-80% of all offensive plays in this game should occur on the ground and that can only help our cause. Play: Georgia Tech/Iowa under 50½ (Risking 2 units).
Montreal +2.10 over WASHINGTON
The Caps have dropped three in a row and in two of those games they allowed a combined 11 goals against. They allowed six goals to the putrid Canes and lost 6-3 in Washington. They subsequently were buried by the Sharks 5-2 and followed that up with a 2-1 loss in L.A. The Caps will return home from a short two-game trip but it was a long trip to the West Coast. They’ll also return home a little fragile and with a slew of injured players likely going tonight but not 100%. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have looked a whole lot better the last four games, despite going just 2-2. They look a lot more confident with Andrei Markov and Roman Hamrlik back in the lineup and so they should. Markov is a top D-man in this league and he has proven just how valuable he is to the Habs. Furthermore, the Canadiens have a big edge in net and that alone, combined with this sweet tag makes them very worthy of a wager here. The Habs have just two losses over its last eight games and one of those was a 1-0 loss at home to the Sabres in a game they could have just as easily won. The Caps are among the elite for sure but they’re too risky as a favorite of this magnitude with shaky goaltending and in the midst of a funk. Play: Montreal +2.10 (Risking 2 units).
Columbus +2.24 over VANCOUVER (REG)
The Jackets are in a very serious funk and will now take the dreaded three-game trip to Western Canada beginning with this one. This is about as important a game for them as any all year because they’re falling from playoff contention with just one win in its last 13 games. Incredible indeed that a team like the Jackets, with this much talent, can keep losing at this pace. The best thing for them could very well be to get as far away from home as possible and this is an opportunity for them to dig down deep and snap out of it. They may not win here but they’ll most definitely play with a sense of urgency while the Canucks may not. Vancouver is coming off a very successful four-game trip in which they picked up seven of a possible eight points. Overall, they’ve picked up 11 out of a possible 12 points in its last six games and they could be a little flat tonight especially with games against Phoenix and Calgary on deck. No sense of urgency whatsoever for the Canucks and at this price it’s worth taking a shot that we catch them a bit flat. Play: Columbus +2.24 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.16 over TORONTO
The Leafs are another squad that returns home from a trip tonight, a three-gamer that includes the last two in Calgary and Edmonton. Against the Oilers they scored one lousy goal and they repeated that against the Flames. Thus, in its last two games the Leafs have two goals and that’s a problem. Toronto is way more appealing as a pooch than they are as the chalk and this one is no exception. You never know what you’re going to get from Toskala or Gustavsson and it appears as though the latter will start tonight. So, what we have here is a Leafs team struggling to score, returning home from a trip with unreliable goaltending and playing a dangerous road team in the Panthers. Florida is a streaky team, perhaps one of the streakiest in the business and after a nice 6-2 win last night over the Pens, they should be feeling pretty good coming into this one. Again, the Leafs are one of the worst favorites in the league because of its propensity for falling behind and now that they’re not scoring, it’s chances of coming back decrease dramatically. Very live pooch here. Play: Florida +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.11 over OTTAWA (REG)
It’s really incredible that the Sens scored seven times on Philly minus Spezza and Alfredsson but that was more of a case of bad goaltending than sharp shooting. Anyway, the Sens are just way too risky as the chalk minus those two against a quality team like the Bruins. It was predictable that the B’s were going to have a letdown after that New Year’s Day spectacle but they did rally from a two-goal deficit against the Rangers last night before a late third period goal did them in. Like the Leafs and Caps, the Sens, too, are battling very inconsistent goaltending as Pascal Leclaire continues to allow cheapies and that makes Ottawa a big risk. You can almost always count on solid goaltending from Tim Thomas, the B’s usually play their best games against the Sens and frankly, I have no idea why the Sens are even favored in this one. Play: Boston +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
LT Profits
Iowa vs Illinois
While many eyes will be glued on the Iowa Hawkeyes football team in their bowl game tonight, their basketball team quietly provides a nice betting opportunity at this fat line when they visit the Illinois Fighting Illini.
The Illini are 9-5 straight up, but they appear to be overrated right now as they are just 4-9 against the spread. For further evidence that they are not as good as many people think, consider that while they are a perfect 8-0 SU at home this season, they are just 3-4 ATS in those games. They lost to Gonzaga as three-point favorites on Saturday, leaving them on an 0-4 ATS streak entering this contest tonight.
Now Iowa is just 5-9 on the year, but it is not as if they are getting blown out every night, as they are only losing their games vs. Division I opponents by an average of -2.4 points. The Hawkeyes are a deceptively good shooting team, as they rank 71 out of 347 teams in two-point field goal percentage at 51.5 percent. As long as they do not hoist up too many three-point shots unnecessarily here, there is no reason why they cannot hang within single-digits.
Now the Hawkeyes have lost two games by exactly 17 points this season vs. Northern Iowa and Wichita State respectively, but those are the only games they have lost by more than this posted spread, and they already survived meetings vs. a couple of ranked Big Ten teams in Purdue and Minnesota, in fact covering the number vs. the undefeated Boilermakers.
Finally, the road teams have historically done well in this head-to-head series, going 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meeting including both encounters last season. Iowa has lost the last two visits to Champaign by eight and four points respectively, and we simply do not see Illinois basically doubling that average winning margin here tonight.
Pick: Iowa +16
Matt Fargo
Notre Dame @ South Florida
PICK: South Florida +2
I don’t think Notre Dame should be favored in this spot. The Irish are coming off their first true road game of the season at Connecticut and it was not a good result as they lost by 12 points to move to 1-1 in the Big East so far this year. They are 12-3 overall but this has come by way of playing a schedule ranked 316th in the nation. They have a big advantage down low with Big East Preseason Player of the Year Luke Harangody as he is averaging 24.2 ppg and 10.1 rpg. He could have a very big game here as the Bulls are not a big team with the loss of Augustus Gilchrist but that does not lead to a definite as he put up 31 points against the Huskies, over 44 percent of the total points, and it still resulted in a loss. This game will be won up top and while the guard play of Notre Dame has been solid, a lot of that was due to the schedule already played. South Florida lost its Big East opener at Louisville which was a disappointment as the Bulls trailed by just a point at the half but a big run to start the second half by the Cardinals enabled them to run away with it. The Bulls are 10-3 on the season which is tied for the best start in school history so this is definitely a team on the rise and they are no longer the punching bag of the conference. The guard trio of Dominique Jones, Chris Howard and Mike Mercer has had a solid start to the season as they are averaging a combined 34.8 ppg and 10.2 apg. They matchup very well with the Notre Dame backcourt and forward/center Jarrid Famous will need to hold his own against Harangody. Only Louisville dominated South Florida but again that was just fore a half as the other two losses came by just by three points. This is a much stronger team at home and even when the Bulls were much weaker the past few years, they gave fits to a lot of elite teams down in South Florida. This could be a signature win to start the season and one to provide some momentum heading into a tough stretch coming up. 3* South Florida Bulls