Stephen Nover
Notre Dame -2 at SOUTH FLORIDA
Both teams are off losses, but I see Notre Dame bouncing back against a South Florida squad that is 11-58 in league play since joining the Big East in 2005.
The Irish are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight games following a pointspread loss. The Bulls are 5-15 against the number the last 20 times they've been a 'dog of up to six points.
South Florida is extremely thin for this matchup. Reserve guard Justin Leemow recently left the team and star forward Gus Gilchrist remains out with a severe ankle sprain. Gilchrist leads South Florida in scoring at 18.8 points per game and in rebounding averaging 7.4 boards per contest.He has missed the last five games.
This should ensure another strong game for Notre Dame's star senior forward Luke Harangody. He's averaging 24.3 points and 10.1 rebounds and is considered by many to be one of the top five players in the country.
The Irish are averaging nearly 16 more points per game than the Bulls. They are a middle of the road Big East club while the Bulls, while improved, still are one of the worst teams in the league.
4♦ NOTRE DAME
Chris Jordan
Notre Dame at SOUTH FLORIDA +2
Playing the Bulls tonight against Notre Dame.
Bad spot for the Irish to be laying points, as they're coming off their first true road game - a 12-point thumping at U Conn.
So despite being 12-3, keep in mind they're entering dangerous territory in being shouldered with the the 316th schedule in the nation, in terms of strength.
Now it comes to South Florida, where the Bulls anxiously await the Irish. USF lost its Big East opener at Louisville, and there was likely more disappointment than Notre Dame's at U Conn.
The Bulls trailed by just one point at the half before a Cardinals run to start the second half allowed them to run away with the victory.
I'd much rather bank on the home team in this one, as South Florida is better suited to bounce back in this Big East showdown.
2♦ SOUTH FLORIDA
Drew Gordon
Miami-Ohio +7' at COLORADO
30-21-3 roll over L54 Free Plays, including the Heat outright over the Hawks 92-75 last night (Part of my 3-0 sweep across the board - incl. paid plays)! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Miami (OH)/Colorado match up.
This is a classic example of: "If it looks to good to be true, it probably is!" I'm well aware of how well the Buffaloes have played at home against non-conference opponents, going 7-0 SU & 2-1 ATS, but let's dig a little deeper. Fact is, the Buffaloes started the season with 4 non-lined cupcake match ups, so you can't really count those wins. Followed by 3 games in which they were favored by double-digits, so you have to ask yourself: Who has Colorado beaten at home? The answer is no one, and that's the reason oddsmakers installed the line at this number.
You see, average bettors think they're getting a bargain, laying only -7' to play the Buffaloes at the Coors Events Center, but if I said it once, I'll say it again: the guys in Vegas aren't stupid! This is a tougher match up than you think for the Buffaloes, and here's why:
From a match up standpoint, bettors are underestimating the Red Hawks frontline, which has played very well at times this season. Colorado simply does not have the size edge you'd think a Big 12 team would have against a MAC school. I mean the Buffs two starting forwards: Relphorde and Dufault combine to average just 7.2 boards/game, with only 10 blocks between them... And don't forget that came against some very shoddy competition!
Red Hawks' Winbush, Mavaunga, and Fletcher not only rebound better, but their starters have a combined 21 blocks! And although the Buffs have the edge in the backcourt, Miami (OH) has solid guards who know how to play defense. Make no mistake, this will be the toughest test Colorado has drawn at home this season... Look for them to get exposed a bit in this match up, as the Redhawks grab the cash Tuesday night!
Take Miami-Ohio plus the points over Colorado in this college hoops match up.
2♦ MIAMI-OHIO
Scott Delaney
Rhode Island at Akron
Going to play the Zips tonight in this non-conference, pick'em affair.
Gotta love the prodigal statement game, right?
Akron has won its last six straight, and will welcome the 11-1 Rams into rowdy Rhodes Arena.
Wing players 6-foot-5 senior Jimmy Conyers (10.7 points per game, 10.8 rebounds per game) and 6-6 junior Brett McKnight (14.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg) have led the way during the Zips' six-game win streak, and will be geared up to challenge the evenly matched Rams.
I am actually thinking Rhode Island could possibly look past the Zips to Atlantic 10 play after scoring wins against Boston College (ACC), Providence (Big East) and Oklahoma State (Big 12).
After all, who are the Zips anyway?
The Rams will find out tonight, in this statement game.
3♦ AKRON ZIPS
Tony Weston
Bad call on UC Irvine last night as the Anteaters can’t take care of business.
That’s fine because I’m cashing in tonight as I’m taking New Mexico on the road at San Diego State.
The Lobos come into this game red-hot this season, sitting at 14-1 SU and having gone 10-3-1 ATS.
Coming into this game New Mexico has covered in 4 of its last 5 games on the road and now battle a San Diego State team that’s lost each of its last two games ATS and has covered in just 2 of its last 5 lined games.
Most importantly, New Mexico has covered in 10 of its last 13 games against the Aztecs, including last year’s 2-0 sweep ATS. In their last meeting of the season, on Feb. 21, the Lobos destroyed SDSU, beating the Aztecs 75-49 as a 5-point favorite.
New Mexico will flirt with the outright win and cover on the road at SDSU.
3♦ NEW MEXICO
Brett Atkins
I improved to 16-10-1 with my last 27 free selections after delivering the college hoops winner on Pitt Monday night as the Panthers went to Cincinnati and got the outright upset win. Today I'm back on the college hardwood with a comp play on Texas as the Longhorns travel to Arkansas for a non-conference game.
Even though Texas is favored by double digits, this is good value because Arkansas is a terrible basketball team this season. The Longhorns know how to light up a scoreboard while the Razorbacks haven’t been able to do anything against even semi-decent teams.
Texas has averaged 91.4 points a game over its last five contests and allowed just 66.6 points, and held the opposition to just 37.6 percent shooting from the floor. This Longhorns team beat a pretty good Pitt team by 16 points, beat North Carolina by 13 and beat Michigan State by 11. They know how to score and know how to blow a team out in the second half.
Arkansas got just destroyed by Baylor, losing by 23, crushed by Oklahoma by 20 and lost by 13 to South Alabama as nine-point favorites. Their last two wins have been very tight contests with Stephen F. Austin and Missouri State.
Arkansas is on ATS slides of 2-7 overall, 5-16 against Big 12 teams, 1-6 as an underdog and 1-4 after a straight-up loss. Texas is on ATS runs of 9-2 overall, 8-2 as a favorite and 21-8-1 on Tuesdays.
Plus there’s still a little big of a sting from last year’s Arkansas win, 67-61 as a 4 ½-point home ‘dog. Texas still wants a little revenge from that upset.
Lay the chalk and play Texas!
2♦ TEXAS
Jay McNeil
I dropped the ball Monday with my free play as the Jazz failed to take care of New Orleans, but I'm still on an 8-5 run, and I will get the job done today!
I'm turning my attention back to college basketball, and taking host San Diego State to open up Mountain West Conference play with a home win over New Mexico.
The Lobos are a good team, but they're not the same team on the road as they are playing at The Pit. New Mexico is 14-1 this season, but just 3-1 on the road.
The Aztecs are 11-3 this season, including 7-0 at home, where they have won 12 straight games and 21 of their last 22.
SDSU leads the Mountain West in points allowed (59.6 per game) and is second in field-goal defense (39.1 percent).
The Aztecs are on ATS runs of 7-2 as a home favorite and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. Take San Diego State to cover the points tonight in a home victory.
2♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Charley Sutton
What the hell happened to North Carolina last night? The Tar Heels lose outright against Charleston?
Well, I’m not making another mistake like that again tonight as I’m taking the Under in the Orange Bowl matchup between Iowa and Georgia Tech.
The number for that game is set at around 50 1/2 points, depending on where you’re playing this.
Coming into this game Iowa has seen the Under go 4-2 its last 6 games, while Georgia Tech has seen the Under go 4-2-1 its last 7 games.
Keep in mind, too, Iowa has seen the Under go 23-11-2 its last 36 games overall and has seen it go 11-3-1 the team’s last 15 games when installed as an underdog.
Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has stayed Under the Total in 4 of its last 5 games coming off an ATS win and has seen the Under go 4-1-1 its last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
The points will be at a premium tonight as these two stay Under the Total.
3 ♦ IOWA-GEORGIA TECH UNDE
Joel Tyson
UNDER in last night's bowl game for free, now 7-3 the last 10 days with my comp plays.
For Tuesday in college hoops, take the Minnesota Golden Gophers plus the points as they take on the 13-0 Boilermakers from Purdue.
Purdue is just 1-3 against the spread their last 4 games, and are off a big win at home over West Virginia on Friday. Now they must regroup for this home conference showdown against a Minnesota team that is off a road double-digit win at Iowa to extend their winning streak to 7 in a row.
Minnesota is looking to stop a 3 game series losing streak both straight up, and against the spread to the Boilers.
While Tubby's team may not take it outright, I like them to be there plus the points.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Chuck O'Brien
Take Texas and lay the big points at Arkansas in college hoops action on Tuesday.
I don’t know if it was a lingering post-New Year’s hangover or just plain disinterest, but the undefeated and second-ranked Longhorns clearly weren’t themselves in Saturday’s 76-70 home win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi – the first time all year Texas won a game by single digits.
Having gotten a much-needed wake-up call, expect a very crisp, very focused Longhorns squad to show up at Arkansas tonight. If I’m right, this will easily be Texas’ 11th win (in 14 games) of 16 points or more. That’s because the Razorbacks blow goats. Forget the 7-7 record that suggests mediocrity; Arkansas has lost to marquee programs like UAB, Baylor (by 23 points!), Louisville (by 30 points!) and Oklahoma (by 17 points), and it has lost to such also-rans as Morgan State (at home), East Tennessee State (at home) and South Alabama (by 13 points at home). The Razorbacks’ signature victory? Uh, does a four-point overtime home triumph over Missouri State count?
Another reason to believe Texas will be fully motivated today: Last year, it went to Fayetteville and lost 67-61 to the Razorbacks as a 4½-point road underdog. Think coach Rick Barnes will remind his players of that about a dozen times today?
Texas averages 86.3 ppg while shooting 49.3 percent from the field and gives up just 59.6 ppg on 34.5 percent shooting, while the Razorbacks allow more than 70 ppg on the season, including giving up 94 points to East Tennessee, 96 to Louisville and 74 to South Alabama. Texas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall, while Arkansas is 2-7 ATS in its last nine and 5-16 ATS against the Big 12.
4♦ TEXAS LONGHORNS
John Ryan
Georgia Tech at Georgia
Prediction: Georgia
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Georgia as they host intra-state rival Georgia Tech set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Georgia will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 108-58 ATS for 65% winners since 2004. Play on any team that plays a slow-down tempo paced game and is averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season facing an opponent after 4 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less. I like this system as it underscores what Georgia needs to accomplish to win this game. Georgia will work the ball for the best shot available and hit a higher than average amount. AiS also reveals an 85% probability that GT will shoot between 40 and 46%. In past games, GT is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Georgia was hammered in their last game at Missouri losing by 28 points by the score of 89-61. Georgia has rebounded strong after embarrassing losses noting they are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a road loss by 20 points or more since 1997. Take Georgia.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Bobcats
These teams come into tonight's contest with identical 14-18 records. However, the situation favors the rested Bobcats playing at home. Chicago played last night and lost at home to Oklahoma City. The Bulls are a terrible road team, covering only four of 14 games in a row. Charlotte is a much improved team, even winning in Cleveland Sunday night as 11.5-point dogs. They are 14-6 ATS off an ATS win and 33-15 ATS off a SU win.
Play on: Charlotte
LARRY NESS
Detroit Pistons @ Dallas Mavericks
PICK: Dallas Mavericks -8.5
The Mavs lead the Southwest Division and the team's 23-11 record is the second-best mark in the Western Conference next to the Lakers (27-6). However, after losing 131-96 to the Lakers in LA on Sunday night, it's not as if the Mavs are "hot on the heels" of the defending champs. Dallas is a decent defensive team allowing opponents to shoot a modest 44.2 percent from the floor (6th-best) but the Lakers became just the third team to shoot over 50 percent against the Mavericks this season, making 63.4 percent. The Mavs shot only 37.8 percent as a team with Nowitzki getting 22 points and the other four starters chipping in a pathetic 22 points (Kidd was scoreless). Dallas is back home after a four-game trip (2-2) to face the Pistons, who come in on a nine-game losing streak (also 0-9 ATS). Detroit hasn't lost 10 in a row since dropping the final 13 games of the 1993-94 season when that team lost 62 games on the year. Prince (9.8-4.2) and Hamilton (17.0) have both been back for the last three games (Prince has 22 points and 10 rebounds, while Hamilton has averaged 12.7 PPG but is shooting just 24.1 percent since returning from a sore right hamstring) but these are not the "Pistons of old." Stuckey (19.1-4.3 APG) is their most consistent player these days plus Villanueva (13.8-5.2) and Gordon (18.5) produce big numbers off the bench but this is a team headed nowhere. Dallas gets a spark off the bench from Terry (16.3) and Howard (13.2), who is now healthy enough to play in all but back-to-back games. Nowitzki (24.9-8.0) and Marion (11.4) start with either Dampier (8.0-9.4) or Gooden (8.0-6.7) in the frontcourt with Kidd (8.4-5.4-8.4) and Barea (10.1-3.9 APG) starting in the backcourt. The Mavs were able to overcome 55 points from Stuckey and Bynum in a 95-90 win at Detroit on November 15 and coming off that 'spanking' at the hands of the Lakers this past Sunday, should easily take care of the woeful Pistons here, handing Detroit its 10th straight loss. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Pistons/Mavs UNDER 187.5
Bottom Line: Plays Under on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (DETROIT) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 21-7 ATS the last 5 seasons, 14-5 ATS the last 3 seasons, and a perfect 1-0 ATS this season. The average posted total in these games has been 185.9 points and the average total score has been just 180.7. Take the Under.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Suns/Kings OVER 227
Phoenix is 8-0 OVER after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score in these games totaling 239.5 points. Phoenix will be hungry to bounce back from a poor performance against Memphis and Sac will be motivated to end its 3-game skid. It should all add up to a high-scoring shootout tonight.