Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 1

Alex Smart

Northern Illinois at Toledo
Play: Toledo -7

Despite only having a 4-3 record, the Rockets did put up offensive numbers against Ohio State and Syracuse - two of their three losses -- when they started the season 0-3 (Ohio State, Syracuse and Boise State) Their loss to Boise State was better than the final score (15-40), too. They are, unlike Northern Illinois, carrying more positive momentum into this Tuesday night College affair with four straight conference wins (at Temple, vs. E Michigan, at Bowling Green, vs. Miami of Ohio) and they get an additional advantage of playing on their own turf.

NIU's offense has been a model of inconsistency. Toledo's player personnel have gained an enormous amount of confidence operating in Tim Beckman's system for the third year.

Toledo's offense has been consistent all season long while NIU's offense has some skewed number - e.g. in a contest against the worst defense in Div 1 - Kansas - a game they were favored by 4 and lost with a second half meltdown.

On the stop side of the ball Toledo has the advantage as well. The Rockets are anchored by a solid run defense ranking 30th in the nation and 2nd in the conference to Temple, who they defeated 36-13 in a game where the Owls turned the ball over four times. The Rockets have been suspect against the pass - but these numbers are somewhat off center, too, ranking them 87th in the nation in efficiency.

Tuesday night's game has a more consistent Toledo team favored by 7 plus-the-hook over a visiting NIU squad that hasn't been nearly as consistent, especially on the road.

Defense Road Games The Huskies have allowed 43 points per game (19 in the first half), 30 first down per game, 216 (4.9) yards rushing and 357 (9.8) yards through the air.

Historically it has been very profitable to fade conference road underdogs in College Football when the oddsmakers set the home team as 3.5 to 10 point chalk -this when both teams are averaging more than 34 points per game. The trend is an amazing 23-3 over the last 10 college campaigns. The straight up record in this situation is even better, eliminating any pushes, a 90 percent proposition at 24-2. The average opening pointspread in these gameday situations has the home team favored by 6 and the average final score differential is 17 points.

David Chan

Anaheim Ducks @ Washington
PICK: Washington -1.5

The 5-5-1 Ducks fly into Washington to take on the 7-2-0 Washington Capitals.

Washington is coming off back to back losses, but is focused and is happy to be home:

“It’s always a good reality check at the beginning of the year that you’ve got to be on every night,” forward Mike Knuble said. “Teams are going to be ready for you. You’re not going to sneak up on anybody.”

“The thing that really has to get better is our penalty killing, which was really good last year and is really not very good right now,” coach Bruce Boudreau said. “We have to correct that . It’s put us in the hole in both games that we’ve lost. In games that we’ve won, we’ve still allowed (power-play) goals. We shore that up, and a lot of other things take care of themselves.”

The Ducks are reeling right now as well, coming off back to back losses to end October.

In fact Sunday's 3-1 setback to Columbus represented the third time the Ducks have scored one goal or fewer during their 1-4-1 stretch; Anaheim's 1.91 goals per game rank it 29th in the league.

Tomas Vokoun outplays his counterpart Jonas Hiller and the Capitals pull away down the stretch; lay the 1.5 goals for the big plus-money return!

Jim Feist

Canucks vs. Flames
Play: Over 5½

Vancouver is still putting the puck in the net, like last year, 11th in goals and 10th in power play. There is plenty of offensive punch, but the defense is a problem, giving up 10 goals the last 3 games (2 losses). That's the biggest concern during their .500 start. They take on a Calgary team that is 19-9-1 over the total in the Flames last 29 vs. Western Conference. And when these teams meet there is plenty of scoring: The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Calgary and the over is 18-7-5 in the last 30 meetings overall. Play the Canucks/Flames Over the total.

FREE NHL PLAY FOR 11/1/2011: We're going to side with the UNDER 5.5 goals in the Ottawa Senators/Boston Bruins matchup Tuesday Night. The under is showing excellent value here with this game being in Boston where the Bruins only allow 2.29 goals/game while averaging just 2.14 goals/game. Ottawa will be playing this game with some tired legs as they're in their third game over four days. Note that the under is 20-7-4 in Senators last 31 games under those circumstances. Tim Thomas will be in net for the Bruins. Although he is just 3-4 his numbers are still good with a .929 save % and a 2.14 GAA. The Bruins will be well rested and we expect them to be in control of the tempo of this game. And the Boston tempo is a slow defensive game, limiting shots on net and turnovers while controlling the puck. As far as team history, in the last ten games between these two clubs, only 3 games have seen more than 5.5 goals scored (and all three overs only had 6 goals). The under is a stagerring 32-15-7 in the Bruins last 54 games when playing on 2 days rest, and 8-3 in their last 11 overall. Take the under 5.5 goals here. Our Free Plays are documented and are currently 124-65-1. Sign up for the best free picks with in-depth analysis today!

SPORTS WAGERS

Vancouver –105 over CALGARY

In this day and age of the Internet, Twitter and 24-hour-a-day coverage, everything is blown way out of proportion. We’re barely 10 games in and what we keep hearing is, "what’s wrong with Vancouver". Ah, guess what. Nothing is wrong with Vancouver. Eventually the cream rises to the top and you can be sure when it’s all said and done the Canucks will be among the top five teams in the entire league in wins and points. They’re loaded everywhere but a slow start allows us an opportunity to take advantage of the market. Let’s call a spade a spade. The Flames have been the Canucks favorite whipping boys for three years and counting. This year may be the biggest mismatch ever between these two and it’s not in Calgary’s favor. The Canucks have won seven of the past eight games over Calgary and there’s nothing to suggest this one will be any different. Calgary is the epitome of mediocrity while the Canucks are once again a powerhouse that should bury this rival like they usually do. Playing Vancouver against Calgary and laying a dime or less is a huge winning proposition over time and you can double that when it’s not a bad situational spot (like playing 3 in 4 or returning from a trip). Perfect spot for the Canucks to come back with another win after knocking off the Caps 7-4. Play: Vancouver –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Northern Illinois/Toledo Over 67

We'll lean to the over tonight as the Rockets have played to the over in 5 of their last 6 at home. Plus, the over is an impressive 19-6-1 in the Rockets' last 26 games as a home favorite. The Huskies have played to the over in 9 of their last 13 overall, and they are 8-2 over in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. 95 total points were scored in last year's meeting and both of these teams are explosive offensively. Toledo averages 36.5 ppg and NIU averages 38.5. Take the over.

Jack Jones

Northern Illinois +9

I'm siding with Northern Illinois Tuesday to cover against the Toledo Rockets. These are two 5-3 teams with a lot to play for tonight, but NIU needs this win more considering the Rockets haven't lost in MAC play yet.

Northern Illinois beat Toledo 65-30 last season while outgaining the Rockets 584-380. NIU star quarterback Chandler Harnish threw for 162 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 149 yards and a score. The Huskies have 8 offensive starters back from that team, including Harnish.

Harnish is the best quarterback in the MAC, and he is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 1,697 yards with 12 touchdowns to four interceptions. He is also the team's leading rusher with 738 yards (7.9/carry) and eight touchdowns.

The Huskies are scoring 38.5 points/game and averaging 463 total yards/game offensively. This is a balanced attack that averages 244 rushing yards/game (5.7/carry) and 219 passing yards/game (7.7/attempt).

NIU has only lost one game all season by more than 7 points, and that came against Wisconsin. I believe the Huskies will have their way with a Toledo defense that is giving up 26.5 points/game and 394 total yards/game at home. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 68.5 percent of their passes for 294 yards/game at Toledo this season.

The Huskies are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week. Toledo is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Take Northern Illinois Tuesday.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

TOLEDO -8 over Northern Illinois: At the beginning of the year I pegged the Rockets as the best team in the MAC and they are proving that so far. They did stumble out of conference this year, but once they hit MAC play this team has been unstoppable. The Rockets come in at 4-0 in the MAC and have outscored their opponents by 16.5 ppg and it should have been higher, but they allowed a KO return for a TD to BG in the last minute of the game to win by 7 instead of 14. Areall good indicator of just how good this team really is is the game vs Temple. On the year the Owls have 7 points or less 5 time and have allowed more than 14 points just once this entire season and that was to the Rockets. Temple was at home that game and they allowed Toledo 36 points, but to the rest of the teams on Temple's schedule they have allowed just 44 points. Toledo's offense is very good, checking in at 28th overall (439 ypg) and 20th in scoring (36.5 ppg), while at home they have averaged 494 ypg and 44 ppg. The Rockets have to be licking their chops at facing one of the worst defenses in the FBS tonight, as the Huskies come in ranked 98th overall (432 ypg) and 99th in points allowed (32.5 ppg). The Huskies have really struggled on the road this year, going 1-3 and they have been outscored by 12.8 ppg. They have allowed a whopping 572.5 ypg and 44 ppg on the road this year as well. This is a bad defense that will struggle mightily tonight vs a very good Toledo Offense. The Huskie offense is 16th in scoring but here is where the Rockets have their biggest edge as they come in with a solid defense that ranks 45th overall, allowing 363 ypg and 52 in points allowed (25 ppg). They have given up some passing yards, but alot of that is at garbage time when they are so far ahead, plus the Huskies are a run based offense and Toledo does come in at 27th vs the run, allowing just 116 ypg. The offenses are very even here, but the Rockets have a huge defensive edge and the home field edge, where they have outscored their opponents by 17.5 ppg. Toledo is also 23-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10, while the Huskies are just 3-9-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips here. Toledo by 14+ here.

NHL Predictions

Anaheim Ducks +185

Although the Ducks have dropped 5 of their last 6 games, they are 5-5-1 on the season. The Capitals lost two straight games on the West Coast of Canada against the Oilers and the Canucks, and are back home where they are 5-0 this season. Jonas Hiller is expected to get the start tonight after getting a break on Sunday. Hiller is 4-4-1 with a 2.55 GAA and .904 SV%. Voukon will get the start for the Capitals, and he is the reason they are off to such a hot start. Voukon is 6-1 with a 2.15 GAA and .932 SV%. The Capitals are averaging 32 shots against per game, putting a lot of pressure on their goaltenders. This is a big statement game for the Ducks who need to prove they can win some games. Corey Perry has stepped up to the occasion when playing against Ovechkin, with 9 career points in 6 games lifetime vs the Capitals. Ovechkin has outdone Perry with 13 points in 6 games though. Take note that the Ducks are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. When two of the NHL’s better teams meet up you have to take a look at an underdog of this size. Despite their recent struggles, I believe the Ducks will play hard tonight and have a chance at stealing a win. Take the DUCKS +185.

Tampa Bay Lightning +108

The 5-4-2 Tampa Bay Lightning meet with the 4-4-3 Carolina Hurricanes for the second meeting of the season. Tampa Bay took the first meeting 5-1 in Carolina. The Lightning beat the Hurricanes in 4 of their 6 meetings last year. Tampa Bay comes into tonight winning 4 of their last 5 games with wins over Winnipeg, Buffalo twice, and the Islanders. The Hurricanes habe dropped 4 of their last 5 games, with losses to Philadelphia, Ottawa, Winnipeg, and St Louis. Steven Stamkos has stepped up his game after a slow start, bring a 6 game point streak into tonight (5 goals during that span). Ryan Malone and Martin St Louis are questionable for tonight, but I am expecting that at least one of them will be back in the lineup. Dwayne Roloson should be back in net tonight after a shutout Saturday night against the Jets. Roloson has had a rough start to the season, but has already beaten the Hurricanes once this season. Cam Ward is 4-2-2 for the Hurricanes with a 2.34 GAA and .928 SV%. Note that the Lightning are averaging 3 goals per game, and have better powerplay and penalty kill %’s than the Hurricanes. Tampa Bay is 9-3 in their last 12 vs Southeast divisional opponents, while the Hurricanes are 0-4 in their last 4 vs divisional opponents. Carolina is coming off a 4 goal loss, and they are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a loss of 3+ goals. The Lightning who have won 4 of these two teams last 5 meetings in Carolina are a very active dog tonight. Playing the better hockey right now I’m on the Lightning as underdogs.

Detroit Red Wings -1.5 +153

This is a revenge game for the Red Wings who peppered Josh Harding with 36 shots and came out on the losing end, with a 1-0 loss to the Wild on Saturday. The Red Wings have lost four straight games coming into tonight, dropping them to 5-4 on the season, but they are still 3-1 at home where they average 3.5 goals per game. The Wild are just 4-3-3 overall and just 1-1-2 on the road where they average 1.75 goals per game. On the season the Wild are averaging only 1.9 goals per game game. The Wild are coming right back with Josh Harding, hoping for another stellar start for him against the Red Wings. He is 1-0-1 on the season (both starts against Detroit) with a 1.45 GAA and .961 SV%. Those are impressive numbers, but more impressive are Jimmy Howard’s numbers over 6 starts. Howard is 4-2 with a 1.82 GAA and .929 SV%. Take note that the Wild are 2-10 in their last 12 games following a win, 3-9 in their last 12 road games, and 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Red Wings are an amazing 133-38-10 in their last 181 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Wings are also 6-2 in their last 8 in the second game of a home-in-home, and 35-16 in their last 51 vs a team with a losing record. The Wild have lost 5 of their last 6 meetings in Detroit, and the Red Wings have won 22 of their last 31 meetings with Minnesota. Harding won’t be able to match Saturday’s performance in Detroit, and the Red Wings get a revenge win over the Wild by a couple goals. Take the Red Wings on the puck line at a generous price.