SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Ohio (6-3, 5-4 ATS) at Buffalo (3-6, 4-5 ATS)
The Mid-American Conference gets the national spotlight to itself as Ohio – looking to remain in the hunt for the MAC East Division title – travels to Buffalo for a divisional battle.
The Bobcats went on the road on Halloween and held off lowly Ball State 20-17, but failed to cover as a 5½-point road favorite. Ohio is 4-1 SU since MAC play began, but after cashing in the first three, it has come up short against the number the last two weeks. The Bobcats, who trail Temple by a game in the East Division standings, have stepped up on defense the last four weeks, allowing just 12.75 ppg.
The Bulls’ difficult season continued a week ago tonight when they blew a 29-16 fourth-quarter lead to Bowling Green, falling 30-29 as a three-point home favorite. Buffalo, which lost to Bowling Green despite a 411-361 edge in total offense (262-48 in rushing), has dropped six of its last eight games (3-5 ATS), with the last three decided by a total of eight points.
Buffalo has posted double-digit upset wins over Ohio the last two years, winning 31-10 as a four-point home ‘dog in 2007 and 32-19 as a 1½-point road pup last season. The home team has won eight of the last 10 in this rivalry dating to 1999, going 7-3 ATS. The SU winner has covered in nine of the last 10 meetings.
Ohio is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 5-2 in MAC action, 8-3-1 on the road, 6-1-1 as a road underdog, 5-1-1 after a SU victory and 7-3 after a non-cover. On the downside, the Bobcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games when catching three points or less. The Bulls have covered in eight of their last 11 when coming off a non-cover, but otherwise are in pointspread slumps of 2-7 at home and 0-6 as a favorite (all at home).
The Bobcats have stayed under the total in four straight games (all in conference), but the over is 4-1 in their last five November outings and 7-1 in their last eight as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, Buffalo carries “over” trends of 8-3 in conference play, 5-2 as a favorite (all at home) and 5-1 against winning teams. Finally, three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO and OVER
NBA
Denver (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Chicago (4-2, 2-4 ATS)
The suddenly slumping Nuggets continue their six-game Eastern Conference road swing with a stop at the United Center for a battle with the Bulls.
Denver ripped off five straight victories to begin the season, including wins of 18 and 28 points to start this road trip, but has since hit the skids in losses to the Heat (96-88 as a one-point road favorite) and Hawks (125-100 as a three-point underdog). In Saturday’s 25-point loss in Atlanta, the Nuggets shot just 41 percent from the field (2-for-10 from three-point range), while the Hawks made 51.7 percent of their shots (8-for-19 from three-point range). After averaging 115.4 points during its five-game winning streak to tip off the season, Denver has averaged 94 ppg in the last two.
Chicago carries a three-game winning streak into this contest, with all three coming by a total of six points. The Bulls beat Milwaukee 83-81 a week ago today, stunned Cleveland 86-85 on Thursday and then edged Charlotte 93-90 on Saturday, but they cashed just once (in Cleveland as an 11½-point underdog). Chicago, which has failed to cover in four of its last five games, has been riding its defense early in the year, yielding 90 points or less in four of its six games.
These non-conference foes meet twice each season, and the home team has swept the two-game series the last three years (5-1 ATS). Last year, the Nuggets crushed the Bulls 114-101 as an 8½-point favorite, but the Bulls returned the favor at the United Center with a 116-99 rout as a 1½-point underdog. Still, going back to 2003, Denver is on a 9-3 ATS roll against Chicago.
Despite stumbling in its last two games, Denver is still on positive pointspread surges of 25-10 overall, 9-3 on the road, 7-2 after a defeat and 6-2 when coming off a double-digit loss. However, George Karl’s club has failed to cover in 10 of its last 13 against Eastern Conference opponents and five of six versus the Central Division. Conversely, Chicago is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 against the Western Conference, but is otherwise in pointspread funks of 1-4 overall, 1-6-1 at home and 1-3-1 after two days of rest.
The over is 16-6 in Denver’s last 22 games against the Central Division, but the under is 6-2 in its last eight on the highway and 8-3 in its last 11 on Tuesday. Chicago is on “over” runs of 4-1 against the Northwest Division, 5-1 after a SU win, 7-0 against teams with a winning record and 8-3 when playing on two days of rest.
Finally, the winning team has scored at least 109 points in each of the last seven meetings in this rivalry, all of which have flown over the total. The over is also 5-1 in the last six head-to-head clashes in Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
Houston (4-2, 5-1 ATS) at Dallas (4-2 SU and ATS)
In an early-season showdown for first place in the Southwest Division, the Rockets make their first trip of the year to American Airlines Center for a clash with Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks.
These teams are off to identical starts, as both lost their season opener, won their next three, then suffered an overtime loss in Game 5 and now are coming off a blowout home victory. For Houston, it followed up Wednesday’s 103-102 overtime home loss to the Lakers with Friday’s 105-94 rout of Oklahoma City, covering as a 6½-point home favorite. The Rockets have cashed in five straight games since coming up a half-point short in a 96-87 season-opening loss at Portland as an 8½-point road underdog.
Dallas had its three-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s 114-107 overtime loss at New Orleans as a four-point road pup, but bounced back with a 129-101 rout of Toronto as a 7½-point home favorite on Saturday. The Mavericks have covered in four of their last five, and after scoring between 91 and 96 points in their first four games (93.5 ppg) they’ve tallied 107 and 129 in the last two. However, the defense has surrendered 114 and 101 points in the last two after giving up 80, 84 and 85 during the three-game winning streak.
These rivals split their four meetings last year, with each winning and covering once at home and once on the road. Still, Dallas is 8-3 SU and ATS in the last 11 meetings, 11-4 ATS in the last 15 clashes and 5-2 ATS in the last seven at American Airlines Center. Finally, the ‘dog is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven head-to-head battles, and the winner has cashed in each of the last 15.
The Rockets’ five straight spread-covers have all come against Western Conference opponents, while the Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven divisional games and 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 when playing on two days of rest.
Houston has topped the total in five straight games, but the under is 5-1 in its last six on Tuesday and 44-21-1 in its last 66 against Southwest Division rivals. Meanwhile, Dallas is 5-1 “over” in its last six divisional games, but the final three Mavericks-Rockets contests last year stayed under the total, which followed a 4-1 “over” streak in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
DUNKEL INDEX
Ohio at Buffalo
The Bobcats look to build on their 6-1-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Ohio is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+1 1/2)
Game 101-102: Ohio at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 85.578; Buffalo 78.803
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+1 1/2); Under
NBA
Portland at Memphis
The Blazers look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 road games. Portland is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blazers favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (-5 1/2)
Game 501-502: Orlando at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 122.319; Charlotte 119.394
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 188
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 503-504: Washington at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 118.531; Miami 123.037
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6 1/2); Under
Game 505-506: Denver at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.691; Chicago 121.149
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 207 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2); Over
Game 507-508: Portland at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 123.688; Memphis 115.046
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 8 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 5 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-5 1/2); Over
Game 509-510: Houston at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.798; Dallas 128.434
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 191 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 6; 199
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6); Under
Game 511-512: Oklahoma City at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 114.982; Sacramento 116.201
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+1 1/2); Under
NHL
Calgary at Montreal
The Flames look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is 0-5 in its last 5 games versus the Western Conference. Calgary is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-120)
Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.973; Boston 11.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Under
Game 3-4: Minnesota at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.324; Toronto 12.488
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Over
Game 5-6: Calgary at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.680; Montreal 11.571
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-120); Under
Game 7-8: Edmonton at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.194; Ottawa 10.773
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 9-10: Vancouver at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.061; St. Louis 11.375
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 11-12: Nashville at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.587; San Jose 12.986
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-250); Over
Rob Vinciletti
Ohio vs. Buffalo U
Play: Over 45
Both teams have played mostly overs in this line range the last few years. Ohio has gone over 11 of 13 times from +4 to -3. Buffalo has gone over 9 of 11 times from -3 yo +3. Both teams have capable offenses and struggling defenses. Look for high scoring game here tonight.
Jr Tips
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TRAILBLAZERS at GRIZZLIES
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10-time All-Star Allen Iverson has taking an indefinite leave to deal with a personal matter which really has nothing to do with the team's poor play as Memphis tries to avoid losing its sixth consecutive game when it hosts the Portland Trail Blazers trying to win its third straight.The Grizzlies have a young roster with players like Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Michael Conley. Gay scored a season-high 33 points against the Clippers but missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer at the buzzer for Memphis, which went winless on a five-game trip after Saturday's 113-110 loss to the Clippers and have lost seven straight to the Trail Blazers since 2007. Portland is opening a five-game road trip and has won two in a row since switching to a three-guard lineup featuring Brandon Roy, Andre Miller and Steve Blake. The Blazers defeated San Antonio 96-84 on Friday and beat Minnesota 116-93 on Sunday. This 3-guard rotation should have alot of success tonight against a Memphis team allowing an average of 120.0 points on 51.6 percent shooting. Portland's All-star Brandon Roy averaged 22.3 points in four games against the Grizzlies last season and will trying to bounce back from a two-point effort Sunday which was his lowest output since 2006. This is a bad spot for Memphis playing their first game at home after a 5-game road trip as they face a Blazer team starting their road trip. Memphis is in disarray as their defense can't stop anybody and the hot Portland Trailblazers will have no problem winning their 8th in a row against this team tonight.
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TAKE PORTLAND -5.5
JIM FEIST
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER / SACRAMENTO KINGS
TAKE: OVER
The best way for the Sacramento Kings to sell tickets is by running an uptempo attack. Sacramento has won three of its last four games after losing its first three games of the season. The Kings showed they can win without leading scorer Kevin Martin, as rookie Tyreke Evans scored 23 points as they hung 120 points on Golden State in a win. It was the first of four straight home games for Sacramento. Of course, that comes at a cost, allowing 106.7 ppg and 50% shooting by opponents. Sacramento is on a 4-1 run over the total. Oklahoma City is no defensive dynamo, giving up 105 points in its last road game, a loss at Houston. Like the Kings, they are a young team better on offense than defense. Play the Thunder/Kings Over the total!
BIG AL
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Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Under
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At 8:35 pm, our member selection is on the under in the game between Houston and Dallas. These two teams come into Tuesday's game on the heels of great success. Both have won four of their previous five games, and each team's loss has come in overtime (Houston lost 103-102 to the Lakers, while Dallas lost 114-107 to New Orleans). The only difference is that Houston has covered five straight games, while Dallas has covered just four of its last five. The Mavs have been installed as a 6-point home favorite, with an over/under of 198.5, and I like this game to go 'under' the total. In the last three meetings between these two rivals, the total score has averaged 180 points, with each game sailing 'under' the total. Finally, the Rockets have gone 'under' the total 57% of the time vs. division rivals over the past 14 seasons. Take the 'under.'
Sports Gambling Hotline
Ohio at BOWLING GREEN
MAC weeknight game once again this Tuesday from Buffalo, and as last week's game between Bowling Green and Buffalo found its way OVER the total, we will play tonight's Ohio-Buffalo game to also head OVER the total.
The Bobcats have played 4 straight UNDERS, but they have also gone 4-1 OVER the total in their last 5 November contests, and they have played HIGH in 7 of their last 8 games when installed as an underdog of 3-points or less.
Buffalo has played HIGH in 8 of their last 11 conferences clashes, and 3 of the last 4 series meetings between the schools have also played HIGH.
Look for the OVER to be the way to go once again between the Bobcats and the Bulls.
Play the HIGH.
2♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Portland at MEMPHIS +6
G-Man fresh off a free play winner on Golden State last night will go with Memphis plus the points in the NBA for Tuesday.
Not that the Grizzlies are off to a great start, because they are not, but I just don't trust the Blazers just yet to be covering big numbers away from home.
Portland has played their last 3 at home, and now they start out on an extended road swing. Problem is, the underdog is on a 20-8 spread run the last 28 times these 2 teams have clashed.
This is only Portland's 3 road game of the young season, and I just feel the impost is a little too tall this early in the campaign.
Live home dog with Memphis tonight.
1♦ MEMPHIS
Bobby Maxwell
Houston +6' at DALLAS
Delivered my fifth straight FREE winner Monday night when the Hornets crushed the Clippers in Los Angeles. Tonight I'm right back on the pro hardwood with a comp selection on the Rockets as they visit Dallas.
These two rivals haven’t squared off this season and for this one, I’m grabbing the points with the Rockets as they seem to be playing pretty well right now.
Houston lost 103-102 on Wednesday to the Lakers and then clobbered Oklahoma City 105-94 on Friday, covering as a 6 ½-opint favorite. The Rockets have cashed in five straight games since coming up just short on opening night in Portland.
Key to the Rockets’ success is their offense as they’ve topped 102 points or more in each of the last five after only getting 87 on opening night. They are getting contributions from everyone on the roster, which could mean a big night from Trevor Ariza, or Aaron Brooks, or Luis Scola or even Shane Battier. Plus there are many bench players willing to step up and deliver.
On the other side, Dallas gets its offense punch mainly from one source – Dirk Nowitzki. Yes, he’s been scoring at will lately, but the Dallas defense has given up 114 and 101 in the last two games, something Dallas should be concerned about.
The underdog has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between these two and they split four games last year with each team taking one game at home and one on the road. The road team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Houston has cashed in four straight as an underdog and the Mavs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six against a winning team. I’m grabbing the points with the Rockets in this one.
2♦ HOUSTON
Dominic Fazzini
Houston at DALLAS -6
I couldn't have been any more right on the money taking the Hornets with my complimentary selection Monday, and I am going to follow that NBA win up with another one today!
Josh Howard is back in the Mavericks' lineup, and they looked like they were hitting on all cylinders Saturday in their 129-101 victory over Toronto.
Howard had 16 points in his season debut against the Raptors, aiding a Dallas attack that produced five double-digit scorers. Not only does Howard's return take some of the pressure off of Dirk Nowitzki on the offensive end, but it also makes the Mavs a much better team defensively.
Houston has went 4-2 so far without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, but it is due for a setback, especially playing at Dallas, where the Rockets have gone 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
Houston also is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games against Dallas, which is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The Mavericks also are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games playing on two days rest. Take Dallas to cover the points tonight.
2♦ DALLAS
MTi Sports
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Washington Wizards at Miami Heat
Prediction: Washington Wizards
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Miami is in a vulnerable spot. They are a home favorite with a lot of rest over a team that have dominated recently. The Heat are 0-6 ATS (-12.2 ppg) as a home favorite vs any team they beat three straight and 0-4 ATS (-12.1 ppg) as a favorite vs any team they beat four straight. Also, the Heat are 0-8 ATS (-15.6 ppg) since May 23, 2005 as a favorite at home with 3+ days rest and 0-10 ATS (-6.4 ppg) after a win at home in which Udonis Haslem had a double-double. Consider the points.
Tom Freese
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Nashville Predators vs. San Jose Sharks
Play: Under 5½
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San Jose is 41-20-3 UNDER after scoring 5 or more goals in their last game and they are 6-1 UNDER their last 7 games overall. The Sharks are 4-0 UNDER their last 4 home games and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games vs. the Predators. Nashville is 7-3 UNDER their last 10 games and they are 7-3 UNDER when playing with two days of rest. The Predators are 8-3 UNDER vs. an opponent who scored 5 or more goals in their last game and they are 14-6 UNDER their last 20 games vs. Pacific Division teams. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Spartan
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SAC / OKL Over 199.5
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The Sacramento Kings are currently on a 4-1 Over run that I look to continue tuesday evening as Oklahoma City comes calling. Strong defense is not exactly a priority with either of these teams and I look for an up and down track meet, maybe not to the extent of the recent game with Golden State but very high scoring nonetheless. Fact is these are both young teams more dialed in at scoring than defending. Look for a very up tempo affair here and more importantly look to clear this total without much drama.
John Ryan
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Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat
Play: Washington Wizards +6.5
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington as they face Miami set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that Washington will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 174-111 ATS for a solid 61% winners since 2004. Play on road teams after a game where they failed to cover the spread and is a bad team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. AiS shows an 85% probability that Miami will shoot between 43 and 47%. Note that Washington is a solid 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington.
LT Profits
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Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs
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We cashed a nice ticket on the Toronto Maple Leafs when they upset the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday night, marking the seventh straight game where they picked up at least one point, but now the pendulum has swung and they appear to be overvalued tonight vs. the Minnesota Wild.
Yes, the Leafs have been a different team since undrafted rookie goalie Jonas Gustavsson took over in net for the terrible Vesa Toskala, and he has indeed done well with a 2.60 GAA and a .918 save percentage in eight starts.
It should also be noted though that the Toronto offense has come alive in front of him, scoring three goals of more in five of the seven games during their point-streak. Thus, Gustavsson has not really been in many pressure situations where he has been called on to win a game for the Leafs.
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However, he may be forced to do so tonight as the Wild have allowed two goals or less in three of their last four games, and probable Minnesota starting goalie Niklas Backstrom has comparable numbers to Gustavsson with his 2.63 GAA and .909 save percentage. The last time the Wild played on the road, Backstrom was terrific in a 2-1 upset win over the Stanly Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins, stopping 34 of 35 shots.
As improved as the Leafs play has been of late, we do not trust them as a decided favorite here vs. a hot goaltender.
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Pick: Wild +125