Matt Fargo
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Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
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This is going to be a very public play but the situation actually calls for it and the public will be right here. The Nuggets after a red hot 5-0 start have dropped their last two games and they head into Chicago needing this game to try and maintain a winning roadtrip as they still have one more game remaining tomorrow in Milwaukee. The losses during the trip have come against Miami and Atlanta who are both playoff caliber teams and while Chicago can be mentioned in that group, I don?t think the Bulls are quite in that same category. Denver was a game over .500 on the road last season and finished 19-11 against the Eastern Conference. The Nuggets no doubt remember the 17-point loss they suffered in Chicago last season. They were roughly the same chalk then as they are now and they went a healthy 14-4 in their other 18 games as a road favorite last season. The Bulls have been playing well with three straight wins including that huge win over Cleveland last Thursday night. They came back with a small win over Charlotte at home where they are currently 3-0 on the season. The team chemistry came into question early in the season with some new faces but they have responded well. The Bulls are 0-2 against teams currently ranked in the top ten in the league and no, San Antonio and Cleveland are not currently part of that group. The losses came against Boston and Miami and both of those were on the road so this sets up as the first home game against a team from the top five in the NBA. Denver falls into a great situation that fades the Bulls. Play against home underdogs that are coming off a home win by three points or less in the first half of the season. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +10.6 ppg. The Bulls are just 17-34 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. 3* Denver Nuggets
Frank Jordan
Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -6.5
These two teams played less than a week ago up in Washington a game won by Miami by 4 points 93-89. For Miami that was part of a streak where they have won 3 of their first 4 games in November while Washington has lost 4 in a row. Look for the Heat to stay hot at home and send Washington to their 5th straight loss. Play Miami
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Dallas Mavericks -6.5
Bottom Line: Playing Dallas when well rested has been money in the back in recent years. In fact, Dallas is on a 14-4 ATS run when playing with 2 days rest, winning in these spots by 9.5 points. We just saw this system at work 3 times already this season, resulting in 3 wins and covers. I'll ride it again here for 1 unit.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston/DALLAS over 200½
Houston is no longer a team that thinks defense first. This is the new-look Rockets that like to move quickly and efficiently and it’s paying off. In fact, the Rockets have won four of its last five and every game over that stretch has gone over the total. In a game in Portland in which the total was 187, the two teams went over the number by 30 points. The Mav’s, too, like to play an up-tempo style and unless both teams are ice cold this one should soar over as well. Josh Howard is back for the Mav’s and will play his second game of the year after scoring 16 vs the Raps on Saturday. The Mav’s have not hit their stride offensively yet but this is a game they’ll have plenty of great looks and easy layups because that’s the way the Rockets play it. Play: Houston/Dallas over 200½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +1.27 over BOSTON
How quickly we forget in this “what have you done for me lately” era? Yes, the Pens have dropped two straight by a combined score of 10-2. Yes, they’re still without Malkin, Gonchar, Kennedy and Letang and those are four front-line NHL players. However, they’re still the Penguins, they’re still highly motivated, they still have Crosby, Kunitz, Staal, Guerin, Goligoski and a bunch more solid NHL players and best of all, they’ll be in a foul mood after those two losses. Furthermore, the Bruins have scored eight goals in its last six games and if you throw out its last game against the Sabres in which they scored four, the Bruins would have four goals in its last five games. This is a Boston team that is struggling miserably to score goals and to win games. In fact, the B’s have just two wins over its last six and one of those was at home against the then flu-ridden Oilers. So, Boston beat the Sabres and the Pens have dropped two straight and suddenly the Bruins woes are over? I don’t think so. Oh, lest we forget that Pens are still 7-2 on the road. Play: Pittsburgh +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO -½ +1.22 over Minnesota
It would appear that the Maple Leafs finally have an answer to what has ailed them for years. Jonas Gustavsson has been terrific the past few games and he’s just getting better. Gustavsson is big, he’s quick and he’s very tough to beat. In fact, the Leafs have allowed just five goals against in its last three games. Even more important is the confidence Gustavsson gives the team, as they’re no longer deflated by bad goals and paying for every mistake. The Leafs have picked up points in seven straight games and a ton of pressure has been relieved in the process. Phil Kessel back in the line-up has also made a huge difference and suddenly, the Leafs look like a whole different team. Meanwhile, the Wild are 1-8 on the road. Offensively, they’re near the bottom of the league with just 36 goals in 16 games and only St. Louis, Carolina and Nashville have fewer. The Leafs are well-rested, they’re confident, they’re scoring goals, the defense and goaltending is dramatically improved and they’ll be playing to an enthusiastic and jacked up crowd. Play: Toronto -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
MONTREAL +1.08 over Calgary
The Flames 10-4-1-0 record is impressive indeed but this team is not and the record is one that is misleading. In Calgary’s recent 3-2 OT win over Dallas they were outshot 40-23. In its last game against the Rangers, a 3-1 win, they were outplayed and out-shot again 33-22. Last week at home in a 3-1 loss against the Red Wings they managed just 21 shots on net. In that bizarre 6-5 loss to the Blackhawks in which they led 5-0, the Flames were outshot 39-20. Early in the year, Montreal went into Calgary and lost but they outplayed the Flames like so many other have this season. Now the oddsmakers have made the Flames an enticing -½ +1.46 and that my friends tells me that the books will gladly accept all bets on the Flames. The Habs have been unimpressive at best but they brought up some kids (Ryan White and especially Mathieu Carle) that have given them some spark and look a lot better than guys like Hal Gill and Ryan O'Byrne. The line says Canadiens and I’ll gladly go with that. Play: Montreal +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
EZWINNERS
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5
The Thunder knocked off the Kings 102-89 in Oklahoma City on opening night as a 6.5 point favorite and withstood a 27 point effort by the King's Kevin Martin. The Thunder will not have to deal with Martin as he is out for six to eight weeks with a broken wrist. The Kings have won their last two games, but I expect them to come back down to earth tonight. Oklahoma City is 7-2-1 against the spread in their last ten games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less while Sacramento is only 2-10 against the spread in their last twelve games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Lay the points.
Roz Juarbe
Orlando at Charlotte
Young Charlotte certainly has looked better since opening night, when they lost 92-59 at Boston. This team is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS at home and is on a 5-0 ATS run overall. They are young and athletic, with Gerald Wallace pulling down 13.8 boards per game and big Tyson Chandler chipping in 7.7 boards per contest. Throw in Boris Diaw and Raja Bell, gifts from the Suns, and this team has talent. The Bobcats actually have a winning record (6-4) at home against the Magic, even with Orlando's 4-0 sweep last season. Orlando is favored here, even though they are 2-2 SU/ATS on the road. Play the Charlotte Bobcats.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets -2
I'll take the better team laying just a deuce here in this bounce back spot after back-to-back losses. Having not played since Saturday, the Nuggets will be plenty rested and ready to go tonight. The Bulls have won 3 in a row, but the numbers tell us they meet their match tonight as plays against home underdogs off a close home win by 3 points or less, first half of the season, are just 24-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Bulls haven't started a season 4-0 at home since 1997 when a guy named Michael Jordan was on the squad. I'll lay the points.
Larry Ness
DAL -7.5 vs HOU
The Rockets and Mavs are both off to 4-2 starts. These in-state rivals play Tuesday night for the first time since Dallas cost Houston its first division title in 15 years when the Mavs won 95-84 on the final game of last year's regular season. The Dallas win cost Houston the No. 2 seed in the West, as the Rockets fell all the way to the No. 5 seed. The Rockets opened this season with Yao out for the year and with no return date set for T-Mac (reports are that he won't play TY, either). Artest left for LA via free agency and few predicted this would be a good year for the Rockets. It's only six games but early returns are good. Ariza (20.2-4.5-4.0) leads the team in scoring with Brooks (18.3-7.7 APG) growing daily at the PG position. Landry (14.3-6.2) and Scola (13.5-9.8) are reliable frontcourt players while every team would love to have a player like Shan Battier (9.8-3.7), who is a terrific defender. Throw in the undersized Hayes (7.7-7.3), guard Lowry (7.5-4.3 APG) and rookie Budinger (10.6) and the Rockets may well be a playoff-caliber team without Yao and T-Mac. As for the Mavs, they added Shawn Marion (14.3-7.7) to their frontcourt to join Howard (19.0 PPG the L3 years) and Nowitzki (26.7-8.8). Josh Howard scored 16 in his season debut, as the Mavs' won 129-101 over the Raptors on Saturday night. He was in the starting lineup after missing all of the preseason and the first five games while recovering from surgery on his left ankle and left wrist in May. Nowitzki scored 29 points vs Toronto, after seeing his streak of 29 straight games of 20 or more points snapped last Wednesday (he had just 12), when the Mavs lost at New Orleans in OT. Saturday's game showed what kind of offense the Mavs can have this year, as five players scored in double figures. Along with Nowitzki and Howard, Terry (18.0) had 19, Marion 18 and Singleton had 10. The Mavs opened last year 0-4 at home but then went 32-5 the rest of the way. With Howard back, the Mavs have too much firepower for the Rockets. Lay the points.
GoodFella
MIA -7.5 vs WAS
The Heat look to continue their excellent start out of the gates behind the leadership of D.Wade and coach Erik Spoelstra. They host the Wizards on Tuesday Night, and the Wizards are not playing good ball right now & they are lacking ball movement, as they are settling for way too many jumpers and one on one play. I look for the Heat to continue their great TEAM play at home & I expect them to take care of this struggling Wizards ballclub. Lay the -7.5 with the Heat here as they should win this game by double digits tonight.
Wunderdog
Houston at Dallas
Pick: Dallas -6.5
The Houston Rockets have made the best of life without Yao and Tracy McGrady. Sooner or later playing on the road against the good teams will take its toll. The Mavericks certainly have developed a huge home-court advantage as they are now 27-4 straight up in their last 31 home games. Two of the losses were to New Orleans, so this is certainly no easy task for the Rockets, who lost both games here a year ago by double-digits. On the road against the good teams has not been kind to the Rockets where they stand at just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 going back to last year. Dallas is playing lethal with two day’s rest and has now gone 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 with two days off. The Rockets are just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings, so I'm going with Dallas here.
Nite Owl Sports
Ohio Bobcats @ Buffalo Bulls
2 units: Ohio Bobcats +2.5
We like Ohio in this match up between two former Nebraska QBs (as head coaches of their respective teams), Buffalo’s fourth year HC Turner Gill and Ohio’s fifth year HC Frank Solich. Bobcats have already played five roadies TY (four of them against teams comparable to Buffalo in talent level), going 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in them, with a 3-0 conf road record, and their only road loss at SEC rep Tenn (but lots closer than expected, and an easy ATS “cover”). And Bobcats are 4-0 SU TY away in tonite’s ATS range of +6 to -6, a role in which they were also 2-1 LY in MAC games. And with Ohio still being in contention for the MAC championship game in December with a 4-1 conf record, and anxious to avenge losses L2Y to Buffalo, we expect a fully focused, high energy effort from them tonite on ESPN/nat. tv. And Ohio’s efficient offense should do some serious “business,” both running and passing the ball, against a so so Buffalo rush defense (146 YRPG on 4.6 YPC) which has virtually identical #s to the Miami, Ohio defense (4.7 YPC) that the Bobcats shredded for 226 YR on 6.8 YPC a few weeks ago, and against an equally suspect Buffalo pass defense that was “torched” by Bowling Green’s Tyler Sheehan in the 2H of last Tuesday’s ESPN home game, a come from ahead 29-30 loss for Buffalo that was a huge double victory for us (both ATS and on the “plus” money line) and was a real mental “downer” for Buffalo, wiping out their remote hopes of contending for the MAC East spot in the MAC championship game.
Buffalo has had just a .500 (4-4) SU record in conf home games LY and so far TY, and is just 1-2 SU and ATS in MAC home games TY, as Bulls compiled most of their home wins during that period with LY’s star QB Drew Willy, who has since graduated, and Bulls one conf home win TY was a narrow 4 point win (and ATS loss) over a crappy Akron team. And while TY’s Buffalo QB Zach Maynard is OK and has decent, steadily improving #s (now 2150 YP on 59% with 15 TDPs and 12 INTs), he simply is not the “clutch” QB that Drew Willy was LY. Buffalo has a good HC in 4th year man Turner Gill (former star QB at Nebraska in early 1980s), and while Gill is smart, he doesn’t have to be so in order to know that the best way for his team to win this game is to keep Ohio’s offense off the field as much as possible, with a mistake-complimentary ball control running game that also eats time off the game clock. But unlike LW against Bowling Green, when Buffalo was able to succeed with their ball/clock control ground-oriented strategy, especially in the first half, where they controlled the TOP (time of possession), ran for 165 yards and took a 21-13 HT lead, running wild against Bowling Green’s crappy run defense (giving up 211 YR per game and an average of 5.8 YPC), we expect things to be tougher tonite for Bulls’ running game against an Ohio rush defense yielding just 139 YRPG and 3.7 YPC. And also note that in that in their non-covering 4 point home win over that crappy Akron team with a rush defense (191 YR on 4.5 YPC) not nearly as good as Ohio’s, Buffalo ran poorly (107 YR on just 2.9 YPC). Moreover, Buffalo has had TO problems TY (-6 in net TOs, with 7 lost fumbles and 11 INTs), compared to Ohio’s stellar +8 in net TOs, a +14 TO edge for Ohio in this match-up, although Bulls have been much better in that dept recently, with just five total TOs (zero lost fumbles but 5 INTs), and a net +6 TOs in their last four conf games. And if Buffalo can’t control the clock and the ball in this game, and/or if they turn the ball over, their somewhat shaky defense could be in for a long evening, especially their pass defense (222 YP allowed per game, and just 5 INTs all season), as they have been carved up pretty good by the 3 good MAC QBs they have faced TY – for 350 YP and 2 TDPs by West Mich’s Hiller on 34-55, for 268 YP by Central Mich’s Le Fevour on 22-28 and two TDPs, and 22-40 for 313 YP and a TDP by BG’s Sheehan, with just two INTs total in those three games.
Another good measuring stick for predicting how well we expect both offenses and defenses to perform tonite is each team’s YPT, on both offense and defense. And for those non-subscribers of ours who are not familiar with that term, it means # of yards having to be gained either by a team’s offense for each point scored, or yielded by a team’s defense to give up a single point. So a low YPT is good on offense and bad on defense, while a high YPT is good on defense but bad on offense. And Buffalo has both a higher than average YPT on offense at 18.3, and a lower than average YPT on defense of 12.8, while Ohio has a very low/good YPT on offense at 12.5, and an average YPT of 15.8 on defense.
With the line at +2.5 for Ohio and +110 on money line, we’ll probably split our pick on them into two, as we typically do in “short line” games like this, which worked well in LW’s 6 unit double victory (ATS and ML) on BG for us over this same Buffalo team, with this pick being ATS at +2.5 for two units. We will also look at possible picks on Ohio vs the 1H line and/or the 1Q line, as well as the total.
Jeff Benton
Ohio +1' at BUFFALO
For Monday’s free play, we’ll head to the college gridiron and back Ohio on the road at Buffalo.
Riding momentum in this one, as Ohio has won four of its last five games and six of its last eight and is in contention for the Mid-American Conference East Division title. On the flip side, the host Bulls have dropped two in a row (both in gut-wrenching fashion) and six of their last eight and are in playing-out-the-string mode.
Ohio has won three straight road games and four of its five on the highway this season, with the only loss being a very respectable 34-23 defeat at Tennessee as a 21½-point underdog. In fact, if this line holds, this will be just the third time this season that the Bobcats will go off as an underdog. Meanwhile, Buffalo has been favored just twice this year, and it failed to cover both times, and that includes last Tuesday’s last-second 30-29 heartbreaking loss to Bowling Green – a game the Bulls led 29-16 with 11 minutes to play. (By comparison, while Buffalo lost at home to Bowling Green, Ohio went to Bowling Green on Oct. 3 and won 44-37 as a 2½-point road underdog).
Throw in the fact that the Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, while Buffalo has failed to cash in six straight as a favorite (all at home), and there’s only one way to look in this contest. Back the better team with the better record with more momentum and more to play for.
3♦ OHIO
Scott Delaney
Tonight, right here, we're playing the over in the Rockets/Mavericks game.
Both teams are starting to find nice identities with their offensive game, and given this is a solid Southwest Division rivalry, no reason to discount the ol' Texas Shootout theory.
Josh Howard is back for the Mavericks, who just hte other night had five players score in double figures for the first time en route to its highest point total of the season in a 129-101 win over Toronto.
At the other end of the court, the Rockets are getting along just fine sans Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, having won four of five, scoring more than 100 points in each.
And in speaking about sharing the wealth, five Rockets scored in double digits Friday in a 105-94 win over Oklahoma City; six were in double figures against the Lakers two days before that; and two days before the overtime loss to the defending champs, eight scored at least 10 in a win at Utah.
Houston rides into Big D on over streaks of 4-0 as the underdog, 5-0 versus Western Conference teams and 5-0 overall. Dallas, meanwhile, has gone Over in five of its last six against Southwest Division foes and is 17-8 Over when laying home chalk.
3♦ Mavericks/Rockets OVER
Tony Weston
Of course I delivered last night as the Steelers and Broncos stay Under the Total just like I said they would. That was 2 straight Comp Play winners and I’m making it 3 in a row tonight as I’m taking the Under in the Ohio-Buffalo matchup on the college gridiron.
The Total for this one is set at about 46 points and these two will stay Under that.
Coming into this game Ohio has stayed Under the Total in four straight games, while Buffalo has stayed Under the Total in 3 of its last 4 games at home.
In that four-game home stretch Buffalo has totaled, on average, just 43.2 points per game, while the Bobcats have been scoring even less during their four-game Under run.
In the team’s last four games Ohio has totaled, on average, just 32.2 points per game, including last week’s roadie where the team totaled 37 points against Ball State.
These two are staying Under the Total again tonight and keeping points at a premium.
3♦ OHIO-BUFFALO UNDER
Craig Davis
I gotta tell you, I'm not one who believes in a lot of "trap" lines, but I have to admit this one caught me off guard a little. Shouldn't Portland be favored by more than 6 tonight? Doesn't Memphis suck? 1 win in 7 chances, right? And now with all this Allen Iverson talk recently, the players probably aren't focused solely on basketball as they should be. Yes, I'm aware the Trail Blazers aren't blowing a ton of teams out like they probably should be, but their recent 12-point spanking of the San Antonio Spurs was all I needed to see to realize this team is for real. They may have started slow out of the gate, but when push comes to shove this might be the most physical team in the NBA. Memphis, on the other hand, is not. They can, and will, be pushed around. Memphis doesn't have enough quality "beef" inside to match wits with Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge, and the way the Blazers play defense, I'm not sure Memphis has seen anything like it yet. There's a reason one of these teams has a winning record and the other team has a losing record... talent. Portland has tons of it... Memphis is a few years away. Blazers by 10.
2♦ PORTLAND