Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 15

Scott Spreitzer

Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators
Prediction: under

Washington got off to a red-hot start, but they have been a little sluggish on the offensive end of late and have dropped 3 of their last 4 games. I doubt they'll pick up the pace on the road in Nashville. The Predators have been outstanding in slowing the pace as a home dog, going 6-1-1 to the Under the last 8 times. And wagering on the Under in Washington road games and outings in general has certainly been the way to go. The Caps are 57-26-2 to the Under in their last 85 outings, and 21-6 Under as a road favorite. Facing the blue line tandem of Ryan Suter and Shea Weber is definitely not conducive to turning around your own offensive production. And whether they face Pekka Rinne or Tomas Vokoun between the pipes, the Caps are going to be hard-pressed to return to their earlier season, goal scoring form, in my opinion. Besides the trends mentioned above, it should also be noted that when Washington has a little time off, it usually benefits their play on the defensive end. The Caps are 20-7 to the Under when playing with 2 days rest. I'm playing the Under between the Caps & Predators on Tuesday.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Michigan State at Duke

Michigan State remains overvalued in the early going. They lost the opener 67-55 to Duke's rival North Carolina, and things will be no easier here at MSG against the Blue Devils considering Coach K will be gunning for career win #903, which would put him one better than mentor Bob Knight and give him the all-time record. Sparty is 3-12 ATS following a game where they were an underdog and shot a dismal 30% in the loss to UNC. Not scared about Duke's opener against Belmont. Belmont is a good team.

Play on: Duke

Matt Fargo

Minnesota Wild vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: Minnesota Wild

Minnesota is 6-2 over its last eight games including a 3-2 record on the road and a lot of this success can be attributed to its penalty kill. The Wild have stopped 32 of their last 35 power play attempts for a .914 save percentage. This includes a perfect 13-13 in those three road wins. Continuing that success tonight should not be a problem as Columbus has just three power play goals in its last seven games, going 3-37 for a .111 success rate which is barely ahead of its season percentage of 10.8 percent, thirds to last in the NHL. The Blue Jackets are dead last in the NHL with just seven points as they have scored 36 goals, which is fourth fewest in the league while their 60 goals allowed are tied for third most. Their 3.67 GAA is worst in the league. Goalie Steve Mason has made all but one start this season and is accountable for most of the damage. In the first meeting against Minnesota this season, he allowed four goals on just 23 shots and was pulled after the second period. He is coming off his best effort in his last start but that means little. While Minnesota's penalty kill has been outstanding, the Blue Jackets have had their struggles against the power play, stopping just 73.7 percent of the man-down shots which is second worst in the NHL. The Wild have not been consistent with their power play but this could be the perfect time for a breakout. Minnesota begins a six-game homestand on Thursday and coming away with a win here and an overall winning road trip is the goal. Minnesota is 4-1 in its last five games as a favorite. This is just the second game in five days for Columbus and while the time off may be considered a positive, it doe not help the situation here as we play against home underdogs against the money line that have lost 12 or more of their last 15 games and playing only their 2nd game in five days. This situation is 26-4 (86.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Speaking of home underdogs, the Blue Jackets are 7-29 in their last 36 games as a home underdog. 3* Minnesota Wild

David Chan

Phoenix Coyotes @ Toronto Maple Leafs
PICK: Toronto Maple Leafs

The 8-4-3 Phoenix Coyotes wander into Toronto to take on the 10-6-1 Leafs.

Mike Smith is schedule between the pipes for the Coyotes; his scheduled counterpart is Ben Scrivens.

Phoenix has been on a bit of a roll, and has always enjoyed success vs. Toronto, but I believe it will finally suffer a letdown against this determined home side.

The Coyotes have won four straight on the road, including 3-0 win at San Jose on Saturday to open this road trip.

Toronto has lost three of four, with all of the losses coming in front of the home town crowd, including a 5-2 setback to the Senators on Saturday.

The goaltenders are a "wash" in my opinion; the difference in tonight's game is Toronto's overall intensity as it looks to "right the ship" after its recent sub par play; good line value here!

Jim Feist

Middle Tennessee State vs UCLA
Pick: Middle Tennessee State

An excellent trip out West for Middle Tennessee State, an athletic team that has started 2-0 allowing 61 ppg. They come off a 58-51 win over Loyola as a +5 dog, allowing 33% shooting. The Blue Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. That same Loyola team upset UCLA last week, 69-58, as the Bruins shot 40% and didn't look comfortable in their "new" home. They don't have home court this season, playing in the LA Sports Arena. The value is with the talented, and unbeaten, visitors. Play Middle Tennessee State.

JR O'Donnell

N. Illinois -17

The Cardinals go on the road to face the Huskies of Northern Illinois tonight with a 8 PM EST kickoff. Huskies lead BSU by a half game in the Eastern Division of the MAC, and a win here would virtually vault them into the Championship game. Ball St punches in @ 6-4 & is still in the Bowl hunt,... they have been torched for close to 500 yds per game, and are being outscored by 11 ppg the last few. NIU is a scoring machine @ 46 ppg in their last "5" & have hung up 5 wins.

NIU is led by do it all QB Chandler Harnish who has passed for 2256 yards, "20" TD, and run for 1022 yards (8/c) and "9" TD for a total of 3278 total yards and "29" TD. The scary point is that their running back Hopkins has run for 719 yds & "13" TD at 5.1 y/c per carry along with Harnish. These guys average 486 total yards per game, almost evenly split between passing and running. NIU is 8-2 SU in their last "10" at home to BSU, and 13-2 ATS in their last "15" at home. I know the number seems big, but they may get "60 again. Take the Huskies -17

SPORTS WAGERS

Belmont +4½ over MEMPHIS

The Memphis Tigers return just about everyone from a team that won 25 games last year and expectations this year are higher than they’ve been since John Calipari bolted for Kentucky. The Tigers open the year as the 10th ranked team in the country but that’s a little too generous. Sure, they're talented, but they were talented last season, and C-USA defenses had no trouble at all in shutting down the Tigers completely. “Worst offense in the league” can be a deceptive phrase, but in this case "worst by a mile" is more like it. Memphis mustered just 0.97 points per possession in conference play. No other C-USA offense -- not Rice, not Houston, no one -- was held to less than a point per trip. Nor should we tell ourselves that this was "just" a case of bad perimeter shooting. Memphis was horrible from beyond the arc too. So, what we have here is a 10th ranked team playing at home as just a 4½-point choice over an Atlantic Sun team. Belmont opened its season at Cameron Indoor Stadium and fell to Duke 77-76. That game was representative of the Belmont "way," as six of Rick Byrd's players scored between nine and 15 points and made Mike Krzyzewski sweat for win No. 901. The Bruins won 30 games last year and return everyone. They’re not just good, they’re really good and if you're ever going to see an A-Sun team win on a top-10 opponent's home court in your lifetime, this could be it. Small line says Belmont should cover and likely win outright. Play: #595 Belmont +4½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Florida +10½ over OHIO ST

10½? Really? Right off the bat you’re going to pay a premium to wager on the Buckeyes because they come in ranked #3 in the nation. Thing is, the Gators come in ranked #8 in the nation. You can be 100% sure that they’ll use this ridiculous number as motivation, as it is an utter insult and coach Billy Donovan might have this +10½ hanging up in the locker room before the game. This one is likely to attract its fair share of NBA scouts. Between OSU's Jared Sullinger and Gators Brad Beal and Patric Young, it's possible you're looking at three 2012 lottery picks assembled on one floor. One should always pay attention to Billy Donovan’s teams. His teams are efficient and always well-prepped. With all due respect to the undeniably stirring moments and amazing visuals supplied by the Aircraft Carrier game, this has the potential to be the best basketball contest of the season so far and you can’t be spotting a team with two potential future NBA stars on the roster 10½ big points. The Gators should stay well within this range and even have a chance at an upset. Play: #561 Florida +10½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Austin Peay +12½ over CALIFORNIA

In the tip-off Marathon we always look for games in which an unranked and little known opponent is receiving significant points against a ranked opponent. So, what we have here is the #22 ranked Golden Bears coming off two wins in which they bludgeoned their opponents by 27 and 21 respectively playing a Governors club that lost their opener to Mid Tennessee by nine. Instant inflation. Austin Peay is a strong team and potential winner of the Ohio Valley Conference. This year the Governors have a slew of talent back in the fold that includes TyShwan Edmondson and a healthy Anthony Campbell. Campbell only played 10 games a year ago (13.9 ppg), so a full season of his talents should definitely help Austin Peay's chances at a league title. The Govs play a sound brand of defense under coach Dave Loos, who enters his 21st season. With the return of four starters, Cal has a legitimate chance to win the Pac-12 this season. They’re a tremendous shooting team and they return one of the top three trios in all of college basketball in Jorge Gutierrez, Allen Crabbe and Harper Kamp. However, Cal has had two easy wins and with that comes a feeling of complacency. When that happens a live pooch like Austin Peay can get off to a big start and make that 12½-points look like 20 or 25 by the time the Golden Bears wake up. The Govs could also be pesky as hell and hang around the whole night. Play: #607 Austin Peay +12½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Phoenix +106 over TORONTO

Being a coach has a lot more to it than x’s and o’s. Coaches get fired because the team is playing awful and needs new direction or the players are not responding to the coach. When the latter happens it’s only a matter of time before a change is made. Such is the case with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Ron Wilson is arrogant, unlikeable, sarcastic and he commits the cardinal sin of singling out a player or players. After the Bruins buried the Leafs, he singled out Jonas Gustavsson. After a lackluster performance against Ottawa on Saturday night, Wilson singled out the Grabovski line by saying, “My patience is running thin with them”. He’s also singled out Luke Schenn and a few more. So, it’s not that the Leafs are a bad team. They have as much talent or more than the Coyotes. However, the Coyotes love their coach and each and every player gives 200% on every shift of every game because the coach has their back. As for Ron Wilson, he has nobody’s back and the players are responding to that. Ron Wilson won’t make it past Christmas and until then the Leafs will remain a good fade when they’re favored. Play: Phoenix +106 (Risking 2 units).

NASHVILLE +118 over Washington

Upon returning home from a long road trip, the Preds fell to the Canadiens in OT. This is their second game back after said trip and they’re likely to be a whole lot sharper. Nashville has quietly picked up points in seven of its last eight games. They won in both San Jose and Phoenix and they took the Blackhawks to OT in Chicago. They always have a chance with Pekka Rinne in net and it’s not like the Capitals are still on fire. Washington has lost three of its last four and that includes losses to both the Islanders and Devils. Frankly, we’re not sold on the Caps. They’re probably weaker than they’ve been in years and they’re no longer a top three team. The Caps are giving up way too many quality scoring chances and that’s because they’re short on D-men in both bodies and talent. These two don’t play often. It’s only the Caps second visit here since ’09. The Caps are a big draw on the road, as fans that don’t get a lot of chances to see Washington flock to see Alex Ovechkin. For Washington, it’s just another game but for the host, it’s a big game because a rare big crowd is projected with a great atmosphere for the home side. Not sure the Caps should even be the chalk here. Play: Nashville +118 (Risking 2 units).

ST. LOUIS +101 over Detroit

Absolutely the wrong side is favored. Yeah, the Red Wings have won four in a row but so what. Among those wins was a singlev quality one over the Dallas Stars. Other than that they beat two reeling teams in Anaheim and Colorado and another team, the Oilers, that are also beginning to slide. Let’s not forget that Detroit had dropped five in a row prior to its current winning streak and one of those losses came in Columbus against the 3-12 Jackets. Another loss was at home to the Wild and it began with a 7-1 loss to the Caps. Detroit is under .500 on the road while St. Louis is 5-1-1 at home. The Blue Notes have responded well to their new coach and they’re also getting tremendous goaltending from tonight’s starter, Brian Elliott. Wings are favored based on their strong past pedigree and that gives us a great opportunity to take advantage of a bad line. Play: St. Louis +101 (Risking 2 units).

Sean Murphy

Phoenix Coyotes @ Toronto Maple Leafs
PICK: Phoenix Coyotes

Not much respect is being paid to the Coyotes in this matchup - of course, that's nothing new.

Phoenix is off to another solid start, 8-4-3 to open the season. The 'Yotes have been outstanding on the road, going 4-1-1, including a 3-0 win over the Sharks as a +162 'dog to open thejr current trip.

Now they travel to Toronto, to face a reeling Leafs squad that they've beaten in five consecutive meetings. Last season, Phoenix crushed Toronto 5-1. The last time the 'Yotes played at the ACC, they skated away with a 6-3 win two years ago.

The Leafs have dropped three of their last four games, with their lone victory over that stretch coming by way of shootout. Their power play isn't clicking (two for their last 18), their penalty kill is struggling (they've allowed PP goals in six of their last eight games), and their goaltending situation is quickly becoming a nightmare.

All told, the Leafs have allowed 19 goals over their last four games. You would have to go back eight-and-a-half games to compile 19 goals allowed when it comes to the Coyotes.

Toronto's home-ice advantage has been non-existent lately, as its dropped three in a row here at the ACC. The pressure can quickly build as the Leafs are always under close media scrutiny in Toronto. They'll likely have a better opportunity to break out of their funk in a one-game trip to Nashville on Wednesday.

As for the Coyotes, they'll be looking to make hay while the sun shines, so to speak, as this trip will get tougher with stops in Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Washington on deck. Look for another inspired effort from one of the league's most underrated teams on Tuesday. Take Phoenix.

Ben Burns

Avalanche @ Penguins
PICK: Under 5.5

These teams have met twice the past two seasons. Each game stayed below the total. Each produced exactly five combined goals. With this evening's O/U line again set at 5.5, I feel this one has another solid shot at finishing below the number.

While the O/U line was six for the Penguins' 4-1 win the last time they hosted the Avalanche, note that the UNDER is also a lucrative 40-23 the last few seasons, when Pittsburgh has played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5.

During that stretch the Pens, who last played 11/12, have also seen the UNDER go a profitable 25-13-2 when playing with two day's rest in between games.

Games here at Pittsburgh have been low-scoring thus far, with opposing teams averaging only 1.9 goals per game here. Consider the Under.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Memphis -4.5 over Belmont: On Friday night I had Belmont over Duke and they didn't disapoint. Belmont is a loaded team as they bring back al 5 starters from last years team that went 30-5. Today they will be taking on their second top 10 team in a row and they should struggle in this one. Duke was missing a few key pieces from a year ago and they are a very young team and that allowed Belmont to kleep it close. Memphis is also a young team, but they do bring back all 5 starters from last years 25-10 team and they have also had two dynamite recruiting classes in a row.The Tigers also led the nation in bench points last year (40.2 ppg), so vene though they are a young team, those youngsters got a lot of time last year and they can play. This team is also loaded. Belmont will still have a great year, but I don't see them repeating there perfomance they had vs Duke as Memphis takes this one easily.

2 UNIT PLAY

Baylor -10 over San Diego State: Baylor is loaded this year with 4 starters back and they added Freshmen phenom Quincy Miller, who has scored 17 ppg in his first 2 games. The Aztecs are not so lucky and despite their preseason pivk of 3rd in the MWC this team has many question marks in the early going as they must replce 4 starters from last year's magical season. Steve Fisher is a great coach, but the Aztecs just don't have the horses right now to stay with this tough Baylor leam.

David Banks

Ball State / Northern Illinois Over

Another onslaught of weekday MAC action kicks off the Week 12 slate on the college gridiron when the Ball State Cardinals (6-4, 6-4 ATS) and Northern Illinois Huskies (7-3, 5-5 ATS) go at it with the West Division title on the line; kick-off from Huskie Stadium is set to go live on ESPNU at 8:00 ET Tuesday night.

After churning out sub .500 records each of the last two seasons during the post Nate Davis era, the Cardinals didn’t figure to be in the mix atop the West Division at this point of the season. However, with 17 starters back from last year’s 4-8 SU squad, Head Coach Pete Lembo has pushed all the right buttons and finds the path to the MAC Championship game in his kid’s hands entering tonight’s spot. Ball State got into this position by going into Eastern Michigan right before their bye and pulling out the 33-31 outright win as short two-point underdogs. The win moved the red and white to 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS away from Muncie. The Cardinals already possess four outright upsets as underdogs to date beating Indiana, Army, Ohio and aforementioned Eastern Michigan. Ball State has covered versus each of its L/4 MAC opponents and stands a lucrative 15-5 ATS its L/20 as a road pup of 10.5 points or more.

Northern Illinois represented the West in the MAC Championship Game a year ago, so it comes as no surprise to see the Huskies once again perched atop the division standings. That said; you still have to give a tip of the cap in the direction of new Head Coach Dave Doeren who took over for the beloved Jerry Kill with only 10 starters returning from that 11-3 SU squad. QB Chandler Harnish and RB Jasmin Hopkins are the main reasons why the Huskies have been so potent to date. The duo currently has Northern Illinois ranked 11th in total offense (486.1 YPG) and ninth in scoring offense (41.6 PPG). If the defense could hold up its end of the bargain (#100 at 33.4 PPG allowed), the Huskies would be unbeatable within the MAC. As it is, Northern stands a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home winning by an average of just over 23 PPG, and has covered seven of its L/8 in front of the DeKalb faithful.

Though the Huskies have won seven of these teams L/10 overall gridiron skirmishes, the Cardinals have been the pointspread victor covering on seven occasions; the ‘over’ is 7-3 during that stretch. BSU is 23-8 ATS the L/31 times it was dogged on the road, but stands just 9-13 SU & 11-11 ATS in its L/22 MAC tussles. The Huskies have taken care of chalk players by covering 12 of their L/18 when favored (12-5-1 ATS), but check in with a poor 5-11 ATS record against the L/16 +.500 opponents they’ve faced.

Jack Jones

Ball State/Northern Illinois UNDER 72.5

I believe this total is inflated Tuesday, therefore I'll side with the UNDER between Ball State and Northern Illinois. There have been some ridiculously high-scoring games in the MAC of late, which has prompted odds makers to set the numbers far too high. The betting public has been pounding the OVERS, including this one.

This line opened at 70.5 and has been bet up to 72.5 in most places. Northern Illinois was part of one of those really high-scoring games two weeks ago when they won at Toledo 63-60. But they came back down to earth last week, winning 45-14 at Bowling Green in a game that went UNDER the number.

Unlike Toledo, Ball State is not an elite offensive team. The Cardinals are scoring 23.8 points/game while averaging 376.2 total yards/game. In 10 games this season, Ball State and their opponents have combined to score more than 72 points just once. That's a 9-1 (90%) system pertaining to tonight's total set.

With so much at stake tonight, I look for defense to be a priority. Northern Illinois sits in a first-place tie with Toledo atop the MAC West division, while Ball State trails both teams by only one game. The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Cardinals last 23 road games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 Tuesday games. The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Huskies last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Rangers vs. NY Islanders
Play: New York Rangers

The Rangers are in the midst of a 6 game win streak and enter here with 3 days rest and revenge for an earlier loss here. The Islanders have lost 3 straight and 8 of the last 9 as an underdog. The Rangers are 8-2 vs losing teams and 4-0 off a win of 2 or more and also 4 -0 after scoring 4 or more goals in their last game. The Islanders have dropped 35 of the last 49 in division play and 22 of the last 30 in November. They are also 0-4 this year after allowing 4 or more goals in their last game. Finally the Rangers have the #1 road defense in the league while the Islanders are ranked 27th in home scoring. Look for the Rangers to win this one tonight.