Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 16,2010

Tom Freese

Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

Houston is 3-6 straight up this year. The Rockets are 8-21 ATS their last 29 home games and they are 3-10 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Rockets are 9-19 vs. Eastern Conference teams. Houston is 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as a favorite. Chicago is 5-3 straight up this year. The Bulls are 10-3 ATS their last 13 road games and they are 13-6 ATS their last 19 games vs. a team with a losing. Chicago is 12-3-1 ATS vs. Southeast Division teams and they are 5-0 ATS off an ATS loss.

LT Profits

Dallas Stars -1½

The Dallas Stars are coming off of an 0-3 road trip that ended with a 4-2 loss to their opponents tonight, the Anaheim Ducks, at The Pond Friday night. However, look for the Stars to get their revenge returning home on Tuesday and cover the Puck Line at great betting odds.

The NHL latest line from BetOnline for this contest has the Dallas Puck Line at -1½ with what we feel are overlay betting odds of +190.

The Stars were a hot team at home before their road trip, as they won their last three games at American Airlines Center, and most importantly for the purposes of this play, they won all three games by at least three goals while outscoring their opponents by a composite score of 15-5! Dallas is averaging an impressive 3.13 goals per game at home this year while allowing a respectable 2.38 goals per home contest.

Dallas is also 4-4 ATS vs. the Puck Line at home, which has actually produced a nice profit given the nice underdog NHL betting odds attached to their last three home wins.

The Ducks are another team that is like night and day home and away. While they are 7-1-1 in Anaheim, they are only 3-6-1 on the road, where they are averaging just 2.20 goals per game and allowing a distressing 3.50 goals per road contest. It may be worth mentioning that goaltender Jonas Hiller, who stopped 27 of 29 Dallas shots at Anaheim Friday, suffered a cut below his left eye over the weekend, although he was able to play through a 3-2 loss in Chicago Sunday.

Others may not be so fortunate in the Anaheim injury front, and they could be potentially short on centers thus evening, as Todd Marchant is questionable after missing Saturday’s game with an upper body injury and Kyle Chipchura is also questionable after missing the last three games with a concussion. For good measure, defenseman Sheldon Brookbank is also questionable after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury.

The Ducks have actually taken their first two games vs. the Starr this season, bit with the improved Dallas play at home and the rather long list of Anaheim walking wounded, it is hard to pass up the value on the Puck Line in this NHL matchup as the Stars get some revenge.

Scott Spreitzer

Virginia Tech @ Kansas State
PICK: Virginia Tech +6.5

I expect Frank Martin's Wildcats to challenge for the Big-12 regular season title. But I believe they're over-valued in this particular matchup. The 'Cats have to replace PG Denis Clemente, and the effect of his loss cannot be overstated. He was not only the floor-general, averaging over 4 apg, but he also threw down over 16 ppg, and Clemente could take over a game from the perimeter. That's a lot to replace and while Jacob Pullen (19.3 ppg) is a great talent, it will take time to replace Clemente's leadership. Pullen also can no longer feed off of Clemente's outstanding playmaking. The frontcourt is solid when all parts are in uniform. But that's not expected to be the case tonight. UConn transfer Curtis Kelly had a big second half of the season last year and Martin was expecting Kelly to be a leader. But his work ethic...or lack thereof, has Martin scratching his head. Kelly was held out of K-State's opener, and he's expected to be suspended for this one, also. Virginia Tech returns all five of their starters from a season ago. In fact, Seth Greenberg welcomes back the Hokies' top 10 scorers from last season's squad. The roster returns no less than 343 career starts between them. This is it for Greenberg. His Hokies are expected to challenge the Blue Devils and Tarheels for the top spot in the ACC. And while the Wildcats are looking for a new on-court leader, Va Tech is set across the board. Every starting position, and every player off the bench knows their role. I expect Va Tech to surprise the Wildcat faithful in this one. The Hokies are on a 7-0 ATS run on the road off a home win. I'll take the points with Virginia Tech on Tuesday afternoon.

DAVID CHAN

Chicago @ Houston
PICK: Chicago +1.5

The Bulls begin their dreaded "Circus Trip" tonight at Houston. This is the first of seven straight road games for Chicago due to the circus being held at the United Center.

The Bulls know they're going to have a tough 12 days so they'll want to get off to good start taking on the underachieving Rockets.

Houston has been a major disappointment losing six of its first nine games. The Rockets' only victories have been against the Timberwolves, Pacers and Knicks. The Bulls are a step up from those dregs.

The Rockets will be missing two key players - center Yao Ming and point guard Aaron Brooks. The Rockets have been a terrible play at Toyota Center failing to cover in 21 of their last 29 home contests.

The Bulls, on the other hand, are 10-3 ATS on the road.

Chicago is buying into the defensive mindset of its new coach, Tom Thibodeau, holding its last three foes to an average of 92.7 points.

Derrick Rose should have a big game operating against Houston's backup point guards. Chicago has beaten Houston during its past three meetings.

Jim Feist

New York Knicks vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: New York Knicks +8

The Knicks are putting up plenty of points, 101.8 ppg, 12th in the NBA. It's a good uptempo attack for Mike D'Antonio with Amare Stoudemire and young playmaker Ray Felton. They have been competitive, and undervalued, on the road, at 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS. While the Knicks are rested, they take on a Denver team in a difficult scheduling spot, playing the second of a back to back situation after running with the Phoenix Suns last night on the road. The Nuggets just finished playing 4 of the last 5 away from home, as well. Denver is allowing 47% shooting, 8th worst in the NBA. Play the NY Knicks.

Marc Lawrence

Ohio State at Florida
Prediction: Florida

When the Gators host the Buckeyes in a battle of Top 10 ranked teams tonight in Gainseville they will do so knowing they return all five starters from last year's 21-win squad. WIth Florida 57-4 straight up at home in non-conference games and Ohio State off a 41-point win, we'll stay at home with the Gators tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Florida.

Tom Stryker

Miami (OH) @ Duke
PICK: Duke -25.5

There's a good reason why Duke is ranked No. 1 in the country. The Blue Devils can score from anywhere on the floor and, contrary to popular belief, Coach K's troops can play defense too. Off an impressive season-opening 90-67 home win over Princeton, Duke will look to improve (if that's possible) in both areas when Miami (Ohio) slips in to Cameron Indoor.

If my college basketball database has anything to do with the outcome of this game, the Blue Devils will win easily. Since 1990, game two big home favorites priced at -21 or more are a money-making 70-35 ATS provided they are not playing with revenge. This technical situation won with Kansas over Valparaiso last night and we're fortunate to have another play on Duke here.

It's not as if this isn't a great spot for Coach K's troops either. At home, Duke is a profitable 110-66 ATS provided it is matched up against an opponent that does not check in with serious momentum off a blowout victory of 10 points or more. If the Blue Devils are facing a foe that arrive off a single-digit straight up win and they enter on a roll off a blowout victory of 11 points or better, this team trend explodes to a magnificent 29-8-1 ATS!

The RedHawks have been a decent underdog in years past. Unfortunately, this is not the spot to take the points with Miami. As a pup priced at +12 or more, the RedHawks are a shocking 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS provided they enter off a straight up win!

Since 1990, the Blue Devils have cruised to a 40-1 SU and 17-10 ATS mark in their first two home games of the season. With a national ESPNU audience watching, Coach K's boys won't disappoint. Take Duke. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets

The New York Knicks have been really struggling losing five straight SU/ATS. Tonight they begin a Western Conference road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are scoring 110 PPG at home this season while dropping just one game there by one point to Dallas. Denver has CASHED 17 of their last 20 games as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 points. Be sure to look at the Nuggets tonight laying single digits.

Play on: Denver Nuggets

Frank Jordan

New York Knicks vs. Denver Nuggets (NBA) - Nov 16, 2010 9:05 PM EST
Play: Denver Nuggets -8

Denver is 5-5 so far on the season, but at home the have won three of four as they welcome in the Knicks. Last night they had a lead over Phoenix, but fell short in the fourth quarter as they were outscored 31-18. New York is 3-7 and surprisingly playing better on the road with two of the three wins coming in road games. New York has lost 5 in a row as they start a four game West coast trip. Look for that trip to get off to a bad start as the Nuggets win going away. Play Denver

Steve Merril

Butler @ Louisville
PICK: Butler +2

Butler made it all the way to the National Championship game last season, and the Bulldogs were a shot away from the title. After such an incredible feat, you’d expect some regression the following season, especially from a ‘mid-major’ like Butler that lost one of their best players (Gordon Hayward) to the NBA. But we do not anticipate Butler falling too far as they return four other starters and a ton of experience. Some insiders have even said that this year’s team is better despite the loss of Hayward.

The Bulldogs come into tonight’s game with a game already under their belt; an 83-54 cakewalk over Marian College. The same cannot be said of Louisville who is playing their first game of the season while opening their brand new arena, the KFC Yum! Center. The atmosphere will be electric, but that won’t be enough to will the Cardinals to a win.

Louisville’s roster is in flux as they lost some key components from last year’s team and they are also battling injury issues including guard Preston Knowles. Head coach Rick Pitino wants to play at a frenetic pace this season, but that is unlikely to manifest itself tonight against a defensively sound, half court team like Butler. Pitino doesn’t even know who will start tonight as he said he will make his decision ‘about 10 minutes before the game.’ And he doesn’t seem to know much else either. ‘I have no idea where this team is, I really don't,’ Pitino said. ‘From a starting lineup standpoint, it changes every day. I couldn't tell you who is starting and who's not starting. It's very uncertain who is going to be the leading rebounder and scorer.’ Since Butler is complete and Louisville is a work in progress, we’ll recommend a play on the Bulldogs tonight.

EZWINNERS

Ohio Bobcats +7.5

These are two very good football teams and they both play very well on the defensive side of the ball. The Owls will be seeking revenge for last years loss at Ohio that ended a nine game win streak and cost them a shot at the MAC title game, but asking them to win by this margin seems to be asking too much in my opinion. Ohio has won six straight games and have posted a 5-1 record against the spread in those games. The Bobcats are a very well balanced offensive team that averages almost the same amount of yardage rushing as they do passing. Ohio has been very comfortable on the road this season where they are 3-1 against the spread this year on the road and 8-3 against the spread on the conference road dating back to 2009. The Bobcats beat this same Temple team 35-17 last season as two point home dogs and I expect them to keep it close in this game. Take the points.

Matt Fargo

Ohio State vs. Florida
Play: Florida -1.5

This is the marquee matchup of the day as both Ohio St. and Florida are ranked within the top 10 and both have some very high expectations this season. The Buckeyes are coming off a dominating effort in their opener against North Carolina A&T but we should not expect anything less when playing a team of that caliber. The Gators played decent against UNC-Wilmington but it was not the dominating performance many expected. That is keeping this number at a good value. Both the Buckeyes and Gators are very experienced teams and we give the edge to Florida playing this game at home. For the first time since the 2006-07 season, Florida has been picked by the league media to win the SEC title so this team is definitely back where it once stood. The Gators were selected to win both the East Division and the outright title, out-distancing Kentucky in the East, while finishing ahead of West pick Mississippi State for the overall title. The Gators welcome back nearly everyone from last season including all five starters and this is the first time Florida has returned all five starters since 2007 when the Gators won the second of two consecutive national titles. Ohio St. brings back four starters from last season so this team is going to be solid once again despite the loss of National Player of the Year Evan Turner. The Buckeyes added 2010 Naismith High School Player of the Year, Jared Sullinger as well. This is the first road test however for Ohio St. Play on home favorites or pickems in a game involving two teams which finished with winning percentages between .600 and .800 from last season, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +16.4 ppg. The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs of fewer than seven points while going 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win by 20 or more points. 3* Florida Gators

Dave Price

1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -2

Atlanta has had Indiana's number, winning 6 in a row in the series by 4 or more points. The Pacers enter off a double-digit win at Cleveland, but they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days' rest. Take the Hawks.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNITS - TEMPLE -7.5

The Owls are a sparkling 8-0 ATS the last 2 years when avenging a road loss. Defense is the name of the game in Temple and their isn't a hotter one in the MAC. Temple comes in having allowed just 10 points in their last 3 games and two of those games were shutouts. Temple is 10th in the nation in scoring defense at 17.5 ppg and 18th in total defense at 312 ypg. as i stated above, the Owls have allowed just 10 total points in their last 3 games, well they also have allowed just 179.3 ypg and a skinny 3.0 yards per playover that span as well. Ohio comes in hot and their defense is 33rd in total (333 ypg) and 33rd in scoring (21 ppg), but over their last 3 games the defense has allowed 340 ypg and a not-so-stellare 5.1 yards per play. after starting out just 1-3 on the year the Bobcats have turned it around, but thisis a very tough Temple squad that is 5-0 in the MAC and have played the tougher schedule. Temple has outscored their opponents by 12 ppg at home and they should win this one by just about that much.