Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 18

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Michigan State vs. Duke
The Spartans take on the Blue Devils tonight and come into the contest with an 0-5-1 ATS record in their last 6 non-conference games. Duke is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6 1/2).

Game 709-710: Baylor at South Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 66.472; South Carolina 69.816
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 1
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-1)

Game 711-712: Wichita State vs. Memphis (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 73.819; Memphis 63.718
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 10
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-8)

Game 713-714: Utah at San Diego State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 63.069; San Diego State 74.819
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 5
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-5)

Game 715-716: Toledo at VCU (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 59.236; VCU 70.691
Dunkel Line: VCU by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+14 1/2)

Game 717-718: Richmond at Old Dominion (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 58.200; Old Dominion 61.789
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-1 1/2)

Game 719-720: Youngstown State at Central Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 46.596; Central Michigan 55.701
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 9
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-6 1/2)

Game 721-722: St. Louis at Indiana State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 58.665; Indiana State 62.157
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-1 1/2)

Game 723-724: Long Beach St. at Xavier (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach St. 54.485; Xavier 69.298
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 15
Vegas Line: Xavier by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-11 1/2)

Game 725-726: Michigan State vs. Duke (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 65.929; Duke 75.413
Dunkel Line: Duke by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6 1/2)

Game 727-728: Northeastern at Florida State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 52.533; Florida State 69.467
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 17
Vegas Line: Florida State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-11)

Game 729-730:Marquette at Ohio State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 57.222; Ohio State 71 571
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-12)

Game 731-732: Western Kentucky at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 58.708; Minnesota 68.704
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+12 1/2)

Game 733-734: Buffalo at TX-Arlington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 54.732; TX-Arlington 57.756
Dunkel Line: TX-Arlington by 3
Vegas Line: TX-Arlington by 1
Dunkel Pick: TX-Arlington (-1)

Game 735-736: Drake at DePaul (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 49.473; DePaul 54.299
Dunkel Line: DePaul by 5
Vegas Line: DePaul by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drake (+7 1/2)

Game 737-738: AR-Little Rock at BYU (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 50.865; BYU 68.559
Dunkel Line: BYU by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-15 1/2)

Game 739-740: Texas Tech at LSU (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 60.825; LSU 66.382
Dunkel Line: LSU by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LSU by 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+8)

Game 741-742: Kansas vs. Kentucky (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 71.050; Kentucky 72.986
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+5 1/2)

Game 749-750: Northern Iowa at Stephen F. Austin (9:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 61.822; Stephen F. Austin 60.139
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Stephen F. Austin by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+2 1/2)

Game 751-752: Manhattan at Massachusetts (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 56.458; Massachusetts 67.598
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 11
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 9
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-9)

Game 753-754: NC-Wilmington at NC-Greensboro (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 47.189; NC-Greensboro 46.473
Dunkel Line: NC-Wilmington by 1
Vegas Line: NC-Greensboro by 2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+2)

Game 755-756: Rider at Pennsylvania (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 48.612; Pennsylvania 44.935
Dunkel Line: Rider by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Rider by 1
Dunkel Pick: Rider (-1)

Game 757-758: LaSalle at Quinnipiac (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 54.929; Quinnipiac 58.196
Dunkel Line: Quinnipiac by 3
Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 1
Dunkel Pick: Quinnipiac (-1)

Game 759-760: Murray State at Middle Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 59.793; Middle Tennessee State 58.995
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 1
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (+1)

Game 761-762: Southern Illinois at Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 59.720; Tennessee State 47.114
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 9
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (-9)

Game 763-764: Chattanooga at Butler (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 49.235; Butler 61.563
Dunkel Line: Butler by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (+15 1/2)

Game 765-766: Montana at Boise State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 48.664; Boise State 64.078
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Boise State by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+17 1/2)

Game 771-772: Stony Brook at Georgia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 51.144; Georgia 66.024
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 15
Vegas Line: Georgia by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-12 1/2)

DAVE COKIN

DRAKE AT DEPAUL
PLAY: DEPAUL -7.5

I might as well get this out of the way right off the bat. I’m not even remotely impressed with anything about the DePaul basketball program. The Blue Demons have some athletes, but they’ve been horrific fundamentally under Oliver Purnell and I have them way up there on my list of teams to avoid. But this matchup looks so compelling I have a feeling even DePaul might not be able to screw it up.

Drake is missing a couple of guys they’re counting on for substantial contributions this season, as senior guards Madison and Ricks are finishing up their suspensions. It’s not that either player is a star, but on a team with limited options, their loss is of substance. I don’t think there’s any question the duo was missed in a very ugly loss to Bowling Green, and it ought to be a problem for the Bulldogs again this evening.

Drake is already up against it due to an alarming lack of size. DePaul was not at all impressive in a narrow escape against UIC over the weekend. But the one thing they did well was nail shots from two-point range and I don’t see how Drake can stop much here.

This is a game that DePaul can realistically only blow by playing dumb. Obviously, there’s always a chance that someone on Drake can have a huge night. But the matchup suggests that the Blue Demons can, if they’re just a little bit smart, pound it inside and dominate. There’s the rub, as this team is frequently so undisciplined they stray from what should be a clear game plan, and just start firing up threes at will. Which, by the way, is exactly what they did against UIC and explains why they almost got beat. DePaul shot 64% on their deuces in that game. They also launched 28 treys and missed all but 6 of them.

So in essence I’m banking on a consistently stupid team to step out of character for one night and play to their strength. That is definitely not a sure thing. But with Drake as short and shorthanded as they are right now, it’s possible the Blue Demons can get this one even if they screw things up. It’s no bargain, but based on the matchup, I’m going to spot the number with DePaul.

Sleepyj

Ducks / Flames Under 5.5

Combined both teams are under teams. With the defense that both play i'd be surprised to see this one hit 6 goals. Calgary has won two in a row and Anaheim the leaders of the Pacific Division need to right the ship tonight. I expect a tough Physical game here. Anaheim will need to step it up in goal tonight and i expect that after giving up 6 goals to Florida. We got the goalies in goal tonight to catch the under here i think. Flames have been stepping up the offense the last few i expect that to struggle tonight with Anaheim gunning for a win.

Jack Jones

Ohio +3

Both teams have a lot to play for coming into this one. Northern Illinois (8-2) is trying to win the MAC West as it’s currently in a three-way tie for first place. Ohio (5-5) needs one more win to become bowl eligible. So, both teams will be highly motivated for a victory Tuesday night.

I just believe Ohio is showing solid value as a 3-point home dog to Northern Illinois with the way it has been playing of late. It has won two of its last three games overall with its lone loss coming at Western Michigan, which is 5-1 within the MAC and battling NIU for first place in the West.

The Bobcats have a huge scheduling advantage in this one as they will be coming in on two weeks’ rest, while the Huskies played last Tuesday in a grueling 27-24 home win over Toledo. That extra preparation should pay big dividends for the Bobcats as they look to stop this solid NIU offense.

The Huskies have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. That has been evident by the fact that they have gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They lost 14-52 at Arkansas as a 13.5-point dog, beat Kent State 17-14 as a 25-point home favorite, lost to Central Michigan 17-34 as an 8-point home favorite, beat Miami Ohio 51-41 as a 13.5-point home favorite, and beat Eastern Michigan 28-17 as an 18-point road favorite during this stretch.

I really like what I saw from Ohio in its last game against Buffalo. It beat down the Bulls 37-14 as a 4-point home favorite, limiting them to just 134 yards of total offense while forcing four turnovers. That’s the same Buffalo team that is coming off a 55-24 home win over Akron last week.

While NIU has a solid offense, its defense is extremely suspect this year. Indeed, it is giving up 25.5 points and 400.0 yards per game against opponents that are only averaging 21.1 points and 354 yards per game offensively. It is allowing 4.4 points and 46 yards per game more than its opponents average on the season.

Ohio has been the better defensive team this year. It is allowing 25.6 points and 408.9 yards per game against opponents who average 28.2 points and 420 yards per game. It is holding its opponents to 2.6 points and 11 yards per game less than their season averages.

The key to this game for Ohio will be stopping the run as NIU averages 262 yards on the ground compared to just 190 yards through the air. It is equipped to do just that. The Bobcats are only allowing 135 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 161 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the ground this year.

Ohio is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.0 points per game. Plays against road favorites (N ILLINOIS) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Ohio is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.

Red Dog Sports

Richmond vs. Old Dominion
Play: Old Dominion -1½

This game was pick'em when it first came out. The game will be played in Norfolk at the Ted Constant Convocation center in from of about 8000 fans on the campus of ODU. Richmond and ODU used to be conference foes a few years ago and it is nice the two state rivals will play each other early in the year.

Jeff Jones led ODU to a 17-17 record last year and they defeated UNC-Wilmington in their home opener. They are led by guard Ambrose Mosely and inside threat Richard Ross. The Spiders of Richmond are led by guard Kendall Anthony.

I think we see a close game on Tuesday with ODU finding a way to win and cover the small number.

Jim Feist

Lakers vs. Hawks
Play: Over 211½

So, are the Lakers looking forward to next year yet? They should be as they have won just a single game this year and are arguably the one of the two or three worst teams in the NBA. The defense is horrible, allowing under 100 points just twice this season and that was to a slow down Charlotte team and a tired Spurs club. The former being their only win of the season. The NBA has a efficiency rating of 107, meaning how a team makes use of their possessions per game. The higher the number the better and on defense the lower the better. The Lakers have a league worst, 117.9 defensive rating and on the road, it's even worse at 122.5. So it's not hard to see why they are 7-3 O/U on the season and 4-0 O/U on the road. Atlanta is off to a 5-4 start and while they haven't fared well on the road, they are 4-0 S/U at home. The Hawks have been more efficient on offense at home (116.4) versus overall (107.8). The Hawks are 6-2-1 O/U on the season and a perfect 3-0 O/U at home. That makes these teams 7-0 O/U combined in their current situation (road/home). I won't be surprised at all by Atlanta hitting over 110 tonight and if we can get the Lakers to 100, this is an easy over. I'm sticking with what these teams have done best and that's go OVER.

Jesse Schule

Anaheim vs. Calgary
Pick: Anaheim

The Calgary Flames have been perhaps the biggest surprise in the league so far, as they currently sit just two points back of Anaheim for 1st in the Western Conference. The Flames missed the playoffs last year, and only Edmonton had fewer points than Calgary in the West Standings. They lost their leading scorer in the off-season, with Mike Cammalleri going to New Jersey, but they signed a veteran goaltender in Jonas Hiller, who found himself the odd man out in Anaheim.

The Ducks have been slumping, with just one win in their last six overall. The good news for Anaheim though is that leading scorer Corey Perry is back in the lineup after missing five games due to illness, and Kyle Palmieri is back from an ankle injury.

This game sets up perfectly as the Ducks are getting healthier, and should be eager to right the ship and put an end to this slump. The Flames are getting way too much credit, based on their impressive start to the season. I think Calgary has been overachieving, and I just don't think they have enough talent to compete in a very tough Western Conference.

Anaheim has taken 11 of the last 15 meetings with the Flames, and yet the Ducks are just a small favorite tonight.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Soccer Authority

Ireland -v- USA
Pick: USA

This is the last match of 2014 for both countries and will hold large significance to both managers

The Irish were very disappointing in their last game against Scotland; they struggled to move the ball and ran out of idea's every time they tried to create a chance.

In our eye's, there is no reason the USA can't win this game. We feel the bookies have undervalued the States here due to their previous three losses.

Don't be concerned; these losses came against powerhouses (Belgium, Colombia and Germany) the US have a very healthy record against Countries ranked outside the top the Top 50.

We see a close game with the USA edging out the Irish.

John Fisher

Michigan St. vs. Duke
Play: Duke -7

Duke has looked extremely impressive via against poor opponents. The Spartans looked medicore and overrated after their less then stellar victory over Navy. Guard play is the Spartans Achilles heel and will be exposed against the young Blue Devils. Duke has too much size for the Spartans to contain with Okafor looking unstoppable. Duke wins this game easy.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Akron / UMass Over 45.5: Yes bad weather is expected, but I still like the Over in this game. I know that the Akron offense has been pathetic of late, but they will be taking on a UMass defense that has been just horrible this year, especially on the road where they have allowed 36.6 ppg on the year. The Akron defense is the strength of this team, but they come in allowing 35 ppg in their last 4 games and this UMass offense has been god this year, putting up 30.8 ppg on the road and have averaged 36.3 ppg in their last 6 games. Both defense have been bad of late and even in bad conditions I see the offenses having a good shot at putting up plenty of points. I see this one squeaking just over 50 points.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis -½ +175 over BOSTON

Regulation only. After getting whacked by Toronto and Montreal by a combined score of 11-2, the Bruins responded with a 2-1 victory over the Hurricanes in a game they were outshot 34-25. That's probably not the kind of response Claude Julien was looking for but perhaps it's time we realize that the B's aren't capable of much more. Boston's stock hasn't dropped much because they've still won six of its last eight games, which is fine by us because it provides us with opportunities to bet against them at good prices. Truth is, Boston just isn't the same tough to beat team this season as they've been over the last few seasons. Against top-10 teams this year, the B's are 0-4. Against top-16 teams, Boston is 3-6. Boston's strength of schedule ranks 30th out of 30 teams so they've been beating up on weak teams all year. Furthermore, Boston has scored just four times over their past three games and if St. Louis shows up here ready to go, Boston has very little chance of defeating them.

The Blues have dominated the regular season over the past three years or so but have not been able to duplicate that in the playoffs due to a lack of offense. The Blues addressed that by picking up Paul Stastny while hoping that some other players emerge as serious scoring threats every game. Suddenly, a couple of offensive stars have emerged in St. Louis in Jori Lehtera and Vladimir Tarasenko. Throw in Jaden Schwartz, T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen and David Backes among others and the Blues are very capable of coming back from a deficit or putting a team away. The Blue Notes have scored four goals or more in four of their last five and in five of their last seven. They've done all this without giving up anything defensively, as they rank 3rd in the league in shots allowed per game at just 26. We also love the fact that this is the first game of a four-game trip for the Blues, as teams very often put forth their best effort in the first game of any extended trip. In the end, the Blue Notes have a big edge offensively, defensively, current form and the ability to win against top-tier teams.

Nashville -½ +165 over TORONTO

OT included. The Maple Leafs are 9-9 this year and they're very likely to hover around or below .500 the entire season and miss the playoffs again. The Maple Leafs have two things going for them, the ability to score goals and Jonathan Bernier's ability to win games on his own. That makes the Leafs interesting as a decent priced pooch but that's as far as it goes. Being priced in the same range as Nashville, as they are here, Toronto has zero appeal. These fans and media in Toronto are so delusional when it comes to the Leafs that's it actually funny. Toronto's 2-1 loss to Pittsburgh last week was portrayed as a win by the media and fans in Toronto. They all wrote and talked about how good the Leafs were after the game, even though Toronto was outshot 40-31. The next night, Toronto went out and got buried by Buffalo, 6-2. Buried by Buffalo is a term you won't hear again this year. The last time the Sabres scored 6 times in a game was 141 games ago. Yeah, it's just one game and Toronto figures to respond tonight with a much better game but it's not likely to matter because they're not in the same class as Nashville. The Leafs strength of schedule (SOS) ranks 26th in the league while the Preds SOS ranks 6th. The two teams that are allowing the most shots on net per game are Buffalo and Colorado. Combined, that pair is 10-28. The Maple Leafs are ahead of two teams in that category, Buffalo and Colorado, which is proof once again that there's a huge correlation between losing and allowing more shots on net than the opposition.

Have you seen the Predators play this year? In 17 games, Nashville has lost in regulation just four times. Two of those four games were against Pittsburgh and St. Louis. 15 of Nashville's 17 games have come against teams from the West and yet they still have one of the best records in the NHL despite playing the 6th toughest schedule. The Predators are tremendous defensively, they're scoring goals and they are very much like the Flames in that they rarely get outworked. The Preds don't get many chances to play in Toronto, as they have played here once since 2010. With 5 Ontario born players on the roster and nine Canadians, the Predators figure to bring their best here and should that come to pass there's not a damn thing the Maple Leafs can do about it other than hope that Jonathan Bernier makes 45 saves and steals a win. That's a chance we're willing to take.

CALGARY +108 over Anaheim

OT included. The market still doesn't believe in the Flames and that allows us to go with the best of it here. Win or lose, we're playing the true value here and that's a a bet we'll gladly make almost every time. Anaheim is a decent team but the problems are beginning to pile up. First, the Ducks have lost five of six with only win over that span occurring against the Kings in a game they trailed 5-3 with fewer than six minutes left in the third. In other words, they should be on a six-game losing streak. Anaheim has scored two goals or less in nine of its past 11 games while allowing 14 goals over its past three games. Ducks goaltender, Fredrick Andersen has been shaky as hell recently and Bruce Boudreau is reluctant to use him now. That's not unusual for Boudreau, as he's been known to turn like a pit-bull on his goaltenders, which brings us to ex-Ducks goalie, Jonas Hiller.

Hiller is the confirmed starter tonight for Calgary. He was in Boudreau's doghouse the entire second half of last season and was almost forced to retire because of it. He openly stated his disdain for Boudreau, as did Temmu Selanne, who openly stated that “he's not playing for Anaheim because he doesn't want to win a Stanley Cup for that coach”. Hiller's teammates know how badly he wants this one and this hard working and talented group will dig down even deeper tonight in support of their solid goaltender. That's just one reason that Calgary is worthy of support here. Aside from that, the Flames have scored 16 goals over their past four games and four or more goals in six of their past eight while winning six of their past eight. Some figure that the Flames will regress at some point but we don't see it that way at all. We see them getting stronger as the season progresses because they are loaded up the middle, they're loaded behind the blue-line and nobody works harder. The Ducks won't be able to summon the same energy level as Calgary so chances are good that they go down in defeat once again because karma is truly a bitch.

Pass NBA, NCAAF & NCAAB

Dave Price

Knicks/Bucks Over 189.5

The Key: The Bucks have finished under the total in each of their last seven games, and we're getting a generous number as a result. You want to take the over on home teams playing on Tuesday night when the total is 180.0 to 189.5 if they've gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 28-8 mark the last five seasons. We've seen an average of 196.9 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth mentioning that the Knicks are on a 13-3 overs run in games when the total is 180.0 to 189.5, and we've seen an average of 192.9 total points scored in these contests. Each of the past three meetings between these teams have finished over the total with at least 199 total points scored in each.

Ben Burns

New Jersey Devils vs. Winnipeg Jets
Play: Winnipeg Jets -110

This looks like a decent spot for the Jets to avenge that loss though. True, playing the first game back home, after a lengthy road trip, can sometimes be challenging. However, the Jets won 3-1 the last time that they returned home from a similar trip and off back-to-back losses, they figure to be hungry here. The Devils are just 8-18 (-11.6) the past 26 times that they played with two day’s rest in between games. During that time, even factoring in the late Oct. victory, they’re also an ugly 10-25 (-15.9) against teams from the Western Conference. With the line having fallen a little from its opening number and with the Jets at 20-13 (+9.4) the last 33 times that they allowed four or more goals in their previous game, consider Winnipeg.

Jimmy Boyd

UMass +7½

The Minutemen have been one of the most profitable teams to back in the entire country in 2014 and are still showing great value this late in the season. Last week UMass defeated Ball State 24-10 as a 3.5-point favorite for their sixth consecutive cover.

It’s worth noting that the Minutemen had won a combined two games over the previous two seasons, which is important with a team that has no hopes of becoming bowl eligible. Every win for this program right now is a big win. On the flip side of this, a lot of people are going to see Akron sitting at 4-6 with two games left on the schedule and just assume they will be the more motivated team due to the fact that they need to win out to become bowl eligible.

The Zips desperately needed a win last week against a pretty average Buffalo team and they were embarrassed 24-55 as a 3.5-point favorite. It was their 4th straight loss after a promising 4-2 start. Keep in mind that Akron came into the season with high expectations of winning the MAC East. It’s hard for a team to continue to play hard in this situation and it’s asking a lot for them to win by more than a touchdown.

One of the things that I like about UMass keeping it close enough to cover and potentially win outright, is they have the more explosive offense. The Minutemen come in averaging a respectable 30.1 ppg and are 39th in the country in total offense (448.8 ypg), behind a potent passing attack that is 6th in the nation at 340.5 ypg. Akron on the other hand is averaging a mere 21.7 ppg and are 93rd in total offense (364.9 ypg). Their defense has carried them for the most part in 2014, but it’s hard to trust their stop unit after watching them give up 55 points and 536 yards to Buffalo last week.

UMass is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Akron is 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 conference games an, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a losing record.