Steve Janus
Michigan State +7½
I look for the Spartans to bounce back from that less than impressive showing in their opener against Navy and give this young Duke team a run for their money. The Blue Devils are one of the more hyped teams in the country right now. I believe they are getting way to much respect after a couple of cupcake wins over Fairfield and Presbyterian. While the Spartans may not be able to match Duke in terms of talent, they are extremely well coached and you can always count on Michigan State being strong defensively. I look for the Spartans to slow this game down and take the Blue Devils out of their comfort zone. They might not have enough to get the win, but I really like their chances of keeping it close throughout.
Key Trends - Michigan State is 27-13 ATS in their last 40 neutral court games when listed as an underdog or pick and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 with a total set between 140 to 149.5 points. Duke is just 11-23 ATS in their last 34 road games after 2 straight covers as a double-digit favorite.
Will Rogers
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Dallas Stars
Play: Dallas Stars -165
Two teams with a poor home and away record respectively will match-up in Dallas tonight as the Stars are hosting the Carolina Hurricanes. The visitors have lost three in a row as they open a five game road trip, and I favor the home team to come out ahead.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Carolina's struggles to find the net - Only two teams (Winnipeg and Buffalo) have scored less goals than Carolina this season. They've scored only two goals over their last three games and could find themselves struggling tonight as well against a Dallas team who NEED to start winning at home soon.
2. Road woes - The Canes have lost eight of their last nine on the road, and they're win-less over their last 10 visits to American Airlines Center.
3. X-factor - Tyler Seguin is without a goal over his last three games but is looking good to snap that streak tonight as he has scored in each of his last three games against Carolina.
Nick Parsons
Marquette vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -12
Marquette will be looking to revenge an embarrassing home loss against Ohio State last year. No. 20 Ohio State has 54 straight wins over unranked non-conference opponents in regular-season play with the last such loss coming 76-48 against West Virginia on Dec. 27, 2008.
Last season the Buckeyes won 52-35 in Milwaukee, limiting the Golden Eagles to 18.9 percent shooting - one of the worst marks in program history. The loss snapped Marquette's 27-game home winning streak.
Ohio State opened the season with a 92-55 home win over Massachusetts-Lowell in the season opener. They shot an amazing 61.7 percent from the field.
Freshman guard D'Angelo Russell scored 16 points while sophomore Marc Loving had 14 in his first start. Graduate transfer Anthony Lee had 13 and redshirt freshman Kam Williams added 12. Russell was joined in the backcourt by senior Shannon Scott, who took over for graduated point guard Aaron Craft and had a career-best 11 assists to go with nine points.
The Golden Eagles got off to a good start winning 79-63 home win over Tennessee-Martin. They are looking to find somebody to step up and take charge of the team. They're without their top four scorers from a season ago and lost 71.9 percent of their scoring.
JaJuan Johnson had 20 points and Juan Anderson scored 16 as each set career highs. Marquette was outrebounded 34-25, which could be an ongoing issue for a team without anyone over 6-foot-7.
Ohio State started four players between 6-5 and 6-11 and outrebounded Massachusetts-Lowell 35-24.
I like Ohio State to get an easy win in this game. I see them controlling the boards offensively and defensively, which will allow them to get easy baskets. With Marquette looking for an offensive identity and I think they will struggle with Ohio States defense.
Ari Atari
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: New York Knicks +3
Only 4 games to choose from tonight and I'm not going to back a team with confidence, but I'm going to tell you from my standpoint that we can still try to steal a unit with the Knicks tonight if you can grab the spread at +4. This is my team and I really should stop telling people that, because they're an absolute embarrassment. I hate everything about them from their owner right down the that stupid smirk on Carmelo's face. This is a team that has tortured me and other Knicks fans for 14 years and counting. As long as that selfish punk Anthony plays for this team, they're going nowhere.
Now why would I recommend a small wager on the NYK tonight? Simply because this is a team that will catch some runs based on false confidence and momentum. Do you see how much of an immature loose cannon J.R. Smith is? He exemplifies the professionalism of this team to the very core. When he gets hot though, there's no stopping him. I'm betting on the fact that New York parlays their dominant win over the Nuggets and goes for a consecutive win in Milwaukee. They've dropped 7 in a row prior to their last win but 5 of them were single digit losses including the last 4 losses in a row. If we can get the Knicks at 2 scores (+4 or more) then we're holding onto the fact that they can keep it close with middle or lower tier teams. Buy 1 point if you can.
The Bucks are playing impressive defense but they're still the Bucks. Their offensive production is simply not there to warrant a -4 point spread. I know the spread has just recently dropped to a -3 but I still think the Bucks should not be getting more than -1.5 here. This is a sandwich game at home after 2 on the road. The letdown factor is in play after a great win in Miami, but the flight home for this one game will be overshadowed by looking ahead at another flight tonight to Brooklyn to face the Nets on a back to back. The Knicks also hit the road to Minnesota but they've been at home for over a week and should be better suited to handle this scenario.
I hope Shumpert doesn't play and J.R. Smith continues jacking up shots with his hot hand. This is a time for him to shine. Anthony will do his regular thing with that idiotic look on his face and Amare will try to provide any sort of help he can. The rebounding is important here. If the Knicks control the glass, we'll see them winning or keeping it very close.
Sam Martin
Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
We faded the Lakers in a pair of SU and ATS losses at home against the Spurs and Warriors in their last two games, but we'll take the points with them as we expect Kobe Bryant and company to stay close to the Hawks. Atlanta doesn't play any defense this year, and we believe this line is far too high for the Hawks to cover.
Despite a winning 5-4 record, Atlanta has given up more points this year then they have scored, and their defensive shooting percentage against (103 ppg on 46% shooting) is not a good stat to have when laying this high of a number. Hawks are in a bit of a letdown here after having been blown out by LeBron James and the Cavs their last time out - they'll win here by not in a blowout.
Bryan Power
New York vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Over
Yesterday in this space, I gave out an Over (Rockets/Grizzlies) that I thought was way too low and it ended up sailing way Over. The same holds true here today....
Milwaukee home games have generally been low-scoring. Actually that would be putting it mildly. They've averaged only 89.2 PPG themselves while at the same time holding opponents to a miniscule 86.5 PPG. Not surprisingly then, the Under has come in all four times playing at home. Overall, the team is 8-2 Under w/ the last seven all going that way when it comes to the total. But there's value here with the number so low. Milwaukee's reserves have also outscored their counterparts in each of the L6 games and six players total finished in double figures in Sunday's 91-84 win over Miami.
The Knicks are not a good defensive team and come in allowing 100.2 PPG away from home. They also just scored 109 in a home win over Denver Sunday. The Over is 3-1 in their four road games and this shapes up to be the lowest total they've faced since a 98-95 loss st Detroit that snuck Over the total. Look for a similar score tonight.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh @ Montreal
Pick: Pittsburgh -120
The Pittsburgh Penguins are making a case that they are the team to beat this season in the NHL. Pittsburgh has had a strong team for quite a few years, and they have shown the propensity to get hot and stay hot, and tend to go on extensive runs when they do. They are on one right now, and aside from a hiccup in New York against the Rangers, the Pens have been flawless in their other nine games surrounding the loss. Montreal has played well in posting a 14-4-1 mark on the season, and this could be a preview of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Canadiens have won six straight of their own, allowing 1 goal or less in five of them. A sure sign of trouble for Montreal is the fact that the Penguins are 61-24 in their last 85 games after allowing 2 or fewer goals in their prvious game as well as 76-36 in their last 112 following a win. Take the hot road team Pittsburgh.
Sammy P
Florida at Los Angeles
Play: Under 5
Two of the biggest under teams in the NHL meet up tonight in LA as the Florida Panthers visit the Kings. These teams have played their last five meetings under the total. The Panthers have proven throughout the year that scoring goals consistently is a tough task but they also limit their opponents on opportunities. Yes, Florida has been great offensively over its last four games, but the pace and matchup tonight against the Kings will send them back to reality. The Panthers not respond well to teams that grind along the boards. The Kings are the prototypical grind-it-out squad that beat you with depth and strength along the boards. Los Angeles averages just 2.44 gpg and allowed only 2.11 gpg so don't expect the Kings to run over the Panthers either. The return of Kopitar into the Kings lineup has helped on offensive end of the ice, but more importantly on the defensive end as well. Having that big body presence in the lineup makes this defense even more formidable. Both teams are relatively healthy so I expect a tight checking, low scoring affair.
Andre Gomes
Los Angeles Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +9.5
The Lakers have in this match up some key factors that will be favorable to them and that will turn the team into a more competitive team than usual in here. First of all, Carroll will still be out for tonight's game and he's Atlanta's best wing defender, so Kobe will have an easier than expected match up in here. The Lakers' offense had problems against Golden State's aggressive defense, but Atlanta's defense is far from being as aggressive as the Warriors.
I also predict the Lakers to have a great edge on rebounding tonight, as Atlanta is just #19 on defensive rebounding in the league, while the Lakers are #4 in the league on offensive rebounding. Atlanta's offense will obviously generate some points against the Lakers' poor defense, but with Kobe, Young coming off the bench and a rebounding edge, I expect the LA team to actually turn this game into a competitive one. Therefore, I'll take the Lakers in here.
Joe Gavazzi
Thunder +3
This is a battle of current also rans in the NBA Western Conference. Utah sits at 4-7 SU, but does not figure to appreciably improve from last seasons' 25-57 SU record. OKC is a likewise humbling 3-8 SU, a far cry from their 59-23 regular season of last year. The reasons why are clear!
OKC has been humbled by the loss of the league's best duo, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Last year, OKC averaged 106 PPG, outscoring the opposition by an average of more than 6 PPG. This year, with Durant and Westbrook on the sidelines, OKC has slowed the pace. Without the dynamic duo, OKC is averaging an NBA low 89.5 PPG. The offense dipped to the nadir of its discontent on Sunday in a 69-65 home loss to the Houston Rockets. In that contest, they shot just 29% from the field, making only 3/19 triples. For the season, they are shooting just 42%. Jackson is working hard on the offensive end to keep the Thunder relevant. During that timeframe, he has averaged 22 PPG. It is clear, however, that further balance is needed.
Utah has been led by 2nd year player, Hayward, who is averaging 19 PPG. He is supported by interior forces, Favors, who has averaged 20 PPG in the last 3 games on 70% shooting and Enos Kanter, who has scored at least 16 PPG L3G. On Saturday, the Jazz completed a brutal road trip in which they were playing their 5thgame in 7 nights, following a win against the Knicks in NY the previous evening. Utah played valiantly in the first half, but spit the bit in the 2nd half, allowing the high-scoring Raptors to score 65 points in a 111-93 loss. That defensive performance epitomizes many of the Utah problems. Last year, Utah allowed 102 PPG. This year, it is about a point higher at 103 PPG. In the most recent 3 games, the Jazz defense has allowed 50% shooting, including 45% from beyond the arc.
While OKC has struggled on the offensive end, the slower pace and greater defensive intensity have allowed foes to average just 94 PPG. Only 4 teams in the league have a better scoring defense. It is that 8 point differential on the defensive end that is our fundamental edge in today's contest. From a situational perspective, far prefer an OKC team who looks to bounce back from an embarrassing home court performance in which they scored just 65 points. Under HC Brooks, OKC has been one of the most resilient teams in the NBA in recent seasons. That is one thing that has not changed about the Thunder this season. OKC is 6-1 ATS following a defeat this season. Ride that bounce back to the bank this evening as this proud franchise bounces back from one of the worst offensive performances in the NBA this season against one of the league's worst defenses.
LT Profits
New Orleans vs Sacramento
Pick : Under 200.5
The surprising Sacramento Kings are 6-4 while averaging 102.8 points per game, but they could be without leading scorer Rudy Gay as he deals with tendinitis of the Achilles and they are actually playing better defense than most give them credit for. Yes they are allowing 101.6 points per contest, but that is more a function of their fast pace as Sacramento is actually eighth in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at 43.4 percent. The New Orleans Pelicans could also be missing a key player in center Omer Asik after be missed last night’s 102-93 loss in Portland with back issues. His backup Alexis Ajinca scored only six points. New Orleans may opt to have forward Anthony Davis guard Sacramento center DeMarcus Cousins, but using that much energy on defense could also negatively affect the All-Star’s offense. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Kings’ last five home games.
Bruce Marshall
Knicks at Bucks
Pick: Under
The Phil Jackson triangle is proving a slow learn for the Knicks, who still seem to be resorting to clear-out mode for Carmelo Anthony (who continues to take almost twice as many shots as any other Knick) when a bucket is needed. Derek Fisher's transition to coaching has thus hit a few bumps, as New York has lost six in a row SU (1-6 last seven vs. line) and has yet to reach the century mark thru Nov. 13. Knicks' 91.6 ppg thru Nov. 13 ranks last in the league. Milwaukee's transition to Jason Kidd going a bit more smoothly. Kidd spreading out the minutes throughout his bench, which has allowed Milwaukee to maintain defensive intensity resulting in just 92.6 ppg allowance (ranks 4th), resulting in seven straight "under" results.
Doug Upstone
Marquette vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -12
Play On favorites like OHIO ST, off a home win by 10 points or more, in the first five games of the season, after closing out last season with four or more straight ATS losses. Teams like the Buckeyes are on a mission early to put last year behind them and come flying out of the game. This college hoops system is at nearly 75% since 2010 and is a perfect 4-0 ATS already this year.
Harry Bondi
AKRON (-7.5) over Massachusetts
UMASS Coach Mark Whipple says it will be a game time decision but it would be very surprising to see the Minutemens talented QB Blake Frohnapfel playing tonight. He injured his leg badly against Ball State last week and we don't see why Whipple would further risk Fronhapfel's health particularly when the back up QB is his own kid! Austin Whipple, a redshirt freshman who transferred from Penn State when his father got the UMASS job, will get the start. When he took over for the injured Frohnapfel at the start of the fourth quarter last week, his father did not allow him to throw a pass! Frohnapfel was averaging over 300 passing yards per game and is by far the best UMASS player, without him we expect the Minutemen offense to be very simple and one that Akron, who is desperate for a win, will easliy shut down. Akron Coach Terry Bowden's squad was hammered 55-24 by a very mediocre Buffalo team last week and we expect the Zips best effort of the year as they look to salvage their season and take a further step in becoming bowl eligible.
OC Dooley
Sabres +190
For those who follow the NHL Buffalo is by far the worst team in the league. After winning a hockey low 21 games a year ago the Sabres check in tonight with a horrible overall record (4-13-2) where they rank near the bottom of every league statistical category. Back on Saturday Buffalo recorded a 6-2 WINNING verdict which was big news considering that the offense has scored just 6 goals in the prior three outings COMBINED. For whatever the reason Buffalo absolutely owns tonight’s opponent and they are catching exhausted San Jose at the perfect time as the heavy favorites are wrapping up a marathon seven-game road swing. To put this in proper perspective tonight marks the TENTH time in the past 12 outings that San Jose has laced up the skates on the highway. Not only has Buffalo WON SEVEN IN A ROW versus San Jose in this series, they are a mind boggling 15-1 the past sixteen times they have HOSTED the Sharks