Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Memphis at Oklahoma State
The Tigers head to Stillwater tonight looking to take advantage of an Oklahoma State team that is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 home games. Memphis is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+7)

Game 711-712: Vanderbilt at Butler (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 65.114; Butler 68.510
Dunkel Line: Butler by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+5 1/2)

Game 713-714: Hofstra at Richmond (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 45.227; Richmond 63.731
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 16
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-16)

Game 715-716: Detroit at James Madison (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 51.135; James Madison 59.138
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 8
Vegas Line: James Madison by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (-3 1/2)

Game 717-718: TX-Arlington at Kentucky (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Arlington 49.435; Kentucky 72.144
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 27
Dunkel Pick: TX-Arlington (+27)

Game 719-720: LaSalle at Penn State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 57.560; Penn State 63.404
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 6
Vegas Line: Penn State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-3 1/2)

Game 721-722: Memphis at Oklahoma State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 68.525; Oklahoma State 69.271
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 1
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+7)

Game 723-724: DePaul at WI-Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 54.255; WI-Milwaukee 50.275
Dunkel Line: DePaul by 4
Vegas Line: DePaul by 1
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (-1)

Game 725-726: Colorado State at UTEP (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 66.786; UTEP 61.520
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: UTEP by 6
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+6)

Game 727-728: Arizona State at UNLV (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 66.893; UNLV 60.482
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-4 1/2)

Game 729-730: CS-Fullerton at USC (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 53.118; USC 58.857
Dunkel Line: USC by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: USC by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Fullerton (+7 1/2)

Game 747-748: St. Bonaventure at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 54.169; Siena 51.769
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 5 1'2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+5 1/2)

Game 749-750: Iona at Kansas (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 54.910; Kansas 77.540
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 17
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-17)

Game 751-752: Jacksonville State at Auburn (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 49.423; Auburn 55.275
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 6
Vegas Line: Auburn by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville State (+9 1/2)

Game 753-754: North Dakota at Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 47.009; Wisconsin 74.951
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 28
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-20 1/2)

Game 755-756: Southern Illinois at Austin Peay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 57.666; Austin Peay 48.611
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 9
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 1
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (-1)

Game 761-762: Bucknell at St. John's (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 60.026; St. John's 63.104
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 3
Vegas Line: St. John's by 8
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (+8)

Ray Monohan

Kent State vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -5½

The Bobcats have been embarrassed two weeks in a row on the road. Returning home they get a weak Kent State team to take out their frustrations on. The Bobcats getting trounced two weeks in a row has brought this number down to a fantastic value so you have to hit it hard, especially if they have killed you the last couple of times - I admit I was a victim.

Rob Vinciletti

Phoenix vs. Sacramento
Play: Over 192

This game fits a solid totals system that plays to the over for home teams like Sacramento with rest if they are favored by 4 or less, vs an opponent like Phoenix that are off a home spread loss while scoring 90 or more. If the total is posted at 190 or higher 14 of 17 have played over since 1995. Both teams are of tough home losses and the Kings have played over in 9 of 10 at home if they scored 90 or less in their last home game. The Suns have flown over in 3 of 4 vs losing teams. Look for this one to go over the total tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Boston Celtics +11

Boston plays good defense for their new coach, 9th in the NBA in points allowed. The Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. This is a sandwich spot for Houston, off a game against uptempo Denver and with a game at state rival Dallas on deck. The Rockets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, plus 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win. With Dwight Howard clanking free throws all game, grab the hustling big dog. Play the Celtics.

Frank Jordan

Atlanta vs. Miami
Play: Over 206.5

Atlanta and Miami are both run and gun teams and have shown as Atlanta is scoring over 104 per game and Miami even more 106 per game. No one is scoring 20 per game for Atlanta as Teague is their leading scorer at 19.4 points per game, but they will raise their game to keep up with LeBron and his 27 points per game. Look for a shoot out with both teams going well over the century mark in this game. Play the Over

Carlos Salazar

Buffalo at Miami
Play:Buffalo -24

Carlos says that this one won't be close and he's even stating it right here that Buffalo will win by at least 40. Buffalo has beat up on the bad teams in the conference. Look for the Buffalo defense to step up this week after giving up 51 the previous Tuesday.

Carlos Salazar's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

ARIZONA STATE AT UNLV
PLAY:ARIZONA STATE -4.5

Two teams that have opened the season in dramatically different directions hook up tonight right here on Las Vegas. Arizona State has come out of the gate on fire, while the Runnin’ Rebels of UNLV have yet to put together a good 40 minutes.

The Sun Devils own a stat package that is right in line with them having blown out each of their first three opponents. Granted, the opposition has been mediocre. But ASU is knocking down treys at nearly 45%, they’re a robust 56.5% on deuces, and the Sun Devils are also doing a good job of earning their way to the foul line.

The Rebels are having a rough time of it. The turnover percentage is way too high, they’re not getting good looks in the paint, and UNLV has been nothing short of dreadful at the stripe. The Rebels are looking like a team that’s going to need some time to develop, and right now there’s no question this is that cannot be backed with any degree of confidence.

It certainly has not taken much time for the numbers to adjust. The fact that UNLV has been ragged at every aspect of the game has not been lost on the oddsmakers, while ASU is looking like a legit squad, and as a result, a game that UNLF would have been favored in prior to the season now sees the Rebels as a decided home underdog.

As far as the keys to the game are concerned, UNLV is going to have to contest the threes that will be fired up by Arizona State. The Sun Devils have launched 85 bombs already in just three games, and they’ve been knocking down loads of the long shots. If the Rebels allow the Sun Devils looks beyond the arc, they’re probably in some trouble.

The other issue is the UNLV free throw shooting, which has been truly abysmal. Only six schools is all of D-1 are shooting the fouls shots worse than the Rebels, and that could be a significant problem tonight.

I know there’s no particular value here with the number where it is, but the line seems totally justified. Until UNLV shows much more than they have to start the campaign, they’re a team to either fade of simply leave alone. I’ll opt for the former this evening and will take my chances with Arizona State minus the points.

Mid-Major Matt

Detroit at James Madison
Pick: James Madison -3

James Madison plays their only home game for a month on Tuesday as they host Detroit. The Dukes are 2-2 on the young season having beaten Northern Illinois and San Jose State in a tournament setting. The Dukes have losses to UVA and Wisconsin Milwaukee. Ron Curry is the leading scorer putting up 12.3 points per game. Charles Cooke and Andrey Semenov also put up over 10 points per contest. The Titans are 1-2 and are coming off a 101-55 loss at UConn. This is a team that is revamping it's roster after losing a boatload of players. They still have Juwan Howard Jr. who leads the team in four categories and that's because he's the best player. There is not much around him. Detroit has failed to cover in 10 of their last 15 November games and may struggle against JMU's defense. The Dukes should take this one easily.

The Prez

Iona at Kansas
Play: Kansas

For most teams, especially young ones like the Jayhawks, coming back from a week layoff after defeating highly ranked Duke in a tournament setting would be a lot to ask for, but for Bill Self teams it isn't... especially at home in the Phog giving less than 20 points to a MAAC squad. The Gaels of Iona have made the NCAA Tournament two straight years and send an experienced team to the hardcourt of one of the most legendary courts in College Basketball, Allen Fieldhouse, and led by senior Sean Armand (18.5 scoring average) and junior David Laury (17.0) the oddsmakers are giving this team a fighting chance -- making KU only a 17-point home chalk. However, coming off a four-point loss at Cleveland State in its opener, followed by a home court win over Wofford 76-55 on Saturday, the Gaels have to be perfect to be in this game with 10 minutes to go in the second half.

Rookie, and one and done phenom, Andrew Wiggins has taken 24 shots and 12 free throws through two games and with the return of point man Naadir Tharpe, Wiggins won't be asked to distribute the ball -- something he hasn't done recording only two assists. But this young Jayhawk group is overwhelming talented, and deep, and even though coach Bill Self's team was squared up against the likes of Duke last Tuesday night the coach made sure his bench has played, mega minutes, giving his young team an infusion of experience, as nine of his players are averaging at least 13 minutes per game.

Iona's opening loss this season, a four point set back to Cleveland State, saw the group fold under some pressure and surrender a 15-point halftime lead. Iona and head coach Tim Cluess enter the 2013-14 season with only one objective: Make the NCAA tournament for the third straight season. Cluess has built something special in New Rochelle. While the Gaels finished just 11-7 during the regular season, they stormed back to take the tournament title and advance to the field of 68, but they didn't have any quality road wins that would make one believe they can stay with this Jayhawk team for 40 minutes.. in fact we are counting on KU to cover this number by halftime and extend the lead in the final 20 minutes

The Gaels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 20 points while the Jayhawks are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.

Ben Burns

Boston Bruins at New York Rangers
Prediction: New York Rangers

While the Rangers had last night off, the Bruins were busy beating up on Carolina. Admittedly, Boston isn't typically a team bothered by playing back-to-back games. I'd still rather back the well-rested team playing on home ice. Note that the Bruins did lose 4-2 the last time that they played the second of b2b games.

The Rangers have payback on their minds, as the Bruins knocked them out of the playoffs last season. They're outscoring teams by an average of 2.4 to 1.6 here at home and I feel they've got an excellent shot at finishing on top. With a price in the pick'em range, consider NY.

Steve Janus

Washington Wizards +5

The public is all over the Timberwolves here and I believe they have driven this line up to where there's a ton of value on the Wizards getting 5-points at home. Washington will certainly be motivated coming in off four straight losses. No surprise they dropped 3 in a row on the road to Oklahoma City, Dallas and San Antonio, but their recent 96-103 overtime loss at home to the Cavaliers was a tough one to swallow. I look for Washington to come out extremely focused and I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game outright. Minnesota is just 2-3 on the road and will find it hard to not look ahead to tomorrows huge home game against the Clippers after falling 107-109 at Los Angeles last week.

Washington is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games when listed as the underdog, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games vs teams with a winning record, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs good passing teams (23 or more assists/game) and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games when they come in having lost at least 4 of their last 6.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Islanders +122 over TORONTO

OT included. We’ll continue to fade the overvalued Maple Leafs until they give us reason not to. Toronto has two wins over their past seven contests. One of those wins occurred against the Devils in a shootout and the other victory occurred Saturday night against the Sabres in a game the Leafs were outshot 35-22. We’ve maintained all season that Toronto can’t keep winning at this pace when they get so heavily outshot every night. The Leafs have won four straight at home but their good fortune is likely to end there too. Over those four games, they have been outshot and out-chanced in all of them and in fact, they have been outshot in every home game this year with the exception of their opener against Ottawa. Is there a correlation between losing and getting outshot? Damn straight there is. Since 1926, only four teams have been outshot in more than 80% of their games the entire season. All four teams finished dead last in the standings by the end of the year. The Leafs have outshot the opposition three times in 20 games and the only reason they are winning is because of sick goaltending and an unsustainable percentage of their shots that are going in.

By contrast, the Islanders have lost a lot of games because of Evgeni Nabokov’s putrid save % of .892. Hello Dave Poulin. Poulin is now the #1 goaltender for the Islanders and his save % isn’t much better at .909 he’s been sitting on the bench for four years and has not had much playing time. In fact, his highest minute totals for the entire year up was back in 2010-11 when he played 491 minutes. He already has played 477 this season and he’s looking sharper all the time. The Islanders have won two of their last three games with only loss coming at home against the Kings in a game they had a 2-0 lead going to the third period. In any event, this one is more about fading Toronto. There is so much profit potential wagering against the Maple Leafs because they are in the same class as the Flames, Oilers, Panthers and Sabres but continue to be favored like a second-tier squad.

Minnesota +100 over MONTREAL

The Canadiens have two wins over their past eight games. Those two victories occurred against the Blue Jackets and Islanders. Over that eight-game span, Montreal has scored 15 goals and things aren’t about to get any easier against this defensive juggernaut that just keeps winning while holding the opposition to few scoring chances.

Minnesota embarks on a four-game trip beginning here and we can guarantee you this team is jacked up. Jason Pominville is from Montreal and so, too, is Marco Scandella, who grew up as a Habs fan and lived five minutes from the rink. The Wild have played here just once since 2009. This is as an exciting road game for the Wild and they figure to be in top form. Minnesota has picked up 15 out of a possible 16 points over its last eight games. They have allowed one goal or less in four of those and two goals or less in seven of them. In terms of current form, momentum, situation and motivation levels, give a big edge to the superior club and then pencil us in for that.

EDMONTON +100 over Columbus

OT included. Is there anything to like about the Blue Jackets as a road favorite? We think not. Columbus is weak down the middle. They have less pure scorers and point producers than any team in the NHL. They have two wins over their past 10 games and have scored two goals or less in half their games this season. Last year’s Vezina winner, Sergei Bobrovsky is proving that last year was an aberration, as he’s now playing like the average goaltender that he’s always been. Columbus may have some value as a dog in certain situations but as a road favorite they have none.

If there’s a turning point in the Oilers season, now is the time to prove so. Down 2-0 in Calgary on Saturday night heading into the third period, Edmonton rallied for four unanswered goals to steal the victory. A loss tonight and that comeback win will mean nothing. Despite losing one night earlier, the Oilers had a decent game against San Jose on Friday. The Oilers have won consecutive games just one time this entire season. They have just one home win in eight games and it was not supposed to be like this after a quarter ways through the season. Edmonton was projected to be a factor this season but early injuries to its two top centers and a poor start has snowballed into them being a non-factor. However, the Oilers are on the rise again and now is the time to buy low. They have some healthy bodies back and they can use that win on Saturday as a springboard to better things. Wrong side favored.

Pass CFB, CBB, NBA

Will Rogers

Chicago vs. Colorado
Pick: Chicago

The Chicago Blackhawks are the defending Stanley Cup champs, and they started last season by breaking the record for the most consecutive games without a regulation loss. Not surprisingly they are sitting at the top of the NHL standings with 32 points, but Colorado is not far behind and has two games in hand. The young Avs will be in for a tough test on home ice tonight, and we'll see if they are up for the challenge.

Here are my keys to the game:

1: Injuries - The Avs lost Matt Duschene to an oblique injury in the loss to Florida. He will be missed, as he leads the team with 12 goals and 20 points.

2: Goaltending - Semyon Varlamov will be the scheduled starter for the Avs tonight, and he's lost three straight starts, and allowed four goals on 33 shots in the loss to Florida.

3: X-Factor - Chicago is the highest scoring team in the NHL, averaging 3.6 goals per game. They also own one of the most potent power-plays, clicking at a rate of 21%.

Wunderdog

Columbus at Edmonton
Pick: Columbus -106

We have passed the quarter pole in the NHL season, and one thing is for certain, the Edmonton Oilers are not going to win a lot of games. Through 22 games this season, the Oilers have managed to win just five times. Columbus has long been the road doormat in the NHL, but things are changing as this team is competitive. They are 3-4-1 on the road, and will smell a win here. Edmonton has been awful on home ice where they have just a single win on the season in nine tries. They have not been close to being competitive, as they have been outscored 23-3 in their last six on home ice - and this is as bad as it gets. Make the play on Columbus.