Joe Gavazzi
Buffalo -24.5
The Miami offense was even more putrid than usual in last week’s game against Kent. In the 24-6 loss, they gained just 174 yards. That dropped their year to date average to less than 10 PPG and only 223 YPG. The Bulls were also getting embarrassed on their ESPN broadcast vs. Toledo last week. A team that had dominated the have nots of the MAC for 6 consecutive weeks was exposed to Toledo when they were outrushed 323-104by the Rockets. A late game rush, however, closed the final score to a respectable 51-41 with 497 passing yards. It proved the Bulls will not give up. Led by QB Licata and RB Oliver, look for a huge offensive performance. A defense led by LB Mack will consider this to be a redemption game for a team that had allowed a total of only 53 points in 6 games prior to last week’s drubbing. Issues with the selection are a price tag that has been inflated by more than 3 TDs from where it would have been opening week and the fact that Buffalo may be caught looking ahead in the late stages to their showdown for MAC East supremacy vs. Bowling Green next week. In any event, you want no part of offensively impotent Miami.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Buffalo Miami Under 49: Miami averages just 9.6 ppg on the year and I do not expect more than 7 points in this one vs a Buffalo defense that has been very good for much of the year. The Bulls allowed Toledo 51 points last week, but prior to that game they had allowed just 8.8 ppg in their previous 6 games. You can bet that this defense is angry after the poor showing vs the Rockets. On offense the bulls have been solid this year but they are not an explosive offense, but more of a methodical offense that will use clock. I also look for Buffalo to really play conservative should they get up big as expected as they have a huge game on deck with Bowling Green, in a game that will decide who will move on to the MAC title game. Buffalo won't need allot of offense t win this game and that should really keep the scoring down. 31-7 sounds about right.
2 UNIT PLAY
Ohio/ Kent Under 51.5: The Bobcat offense has disappeared as they have scored just 3 points in their last 2 games and it will be hard for them to get that offense going in this one vs a Kent defense that has allowed only 11 ppg 240 ypg in their past two outings. Ohio has put up big numbers on the really weak defenses on their schedule, but vs good defenses like Louisville, Bowling Green and Buffalo they have struggled, scoring a TOTAL of 10 points in those 3 games, so they should have problems vs this improving Kent defense. On defense, Bobcats ave played very well at home, allowing just 18.8 ppg, while Kent has scored just 16.3 ppg on the road and just 18.6 ppg on the season overall. The final piece of the puzzle here is the fact that the last 5 in this series have all gone under the total, with an average of 34.2 ppg being scored in those games. This one has the makings of another low scoring affair.
Jimmy Boyd
Boston Celtics +10½
The Boston Celtics are not getting enough credit from the oddsmakers today. Their defense has played well on the road, holding opponents to just 96.7 points per game. They should be able to slow the Rockets down, especially since Houston has shot below 45% from the field in four of their last six games.
Defensively the Rockets have been horrible this season. They are allowing 106.3 points per game, a welcome sign for a Celtics team that has played some defensively strong opponents this year. Boston averages 94.2 points per game, but they should have no problem exceeding that average against Houston. The Rockets may win this game, but it should be a lot closer than this line indicates.
Rickie Robbins
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Play: Atlanta Hawks +9½
The Atlanta Hawks are 7-3 ATS this season, while the Miami Heat are 4-6 ATS. The Hawks average +4.4 point differential against their opponents. The Heat are +7.5 point differential. Both teams are used to winning and I see this line way too high for the Heat to cover. Atlanta leads the league with 26.3 assists per game. Paul Millsap is back in the Hawks lineup and he will help control the glass. Each team is evenly matched on three points allowed, and points in the paint. Take the Hawks +9.5 on the road.
Doug Upstone
La Salle vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -3
On Tuesday, Play On home favorites of 3 to 9.5 points like Penn State after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half, with four starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season. This easy to understand system has a veteran team playing well and presumably facing a weaker schedule to build victories. This college basketball system is 39-10 ATS, 79.6% the past 15 years with the margin of victory 12.1 points.
Dave Price
Sacramento Kings -1.5
The Suns are off to a surprising start but are starting to show signs of coming back down to earth with back-to-back defeats. The road hasn't treated them well either as they are just 1-3 outside Phoenix. Sacramento has lost seven of eight since a season-opening win over Denver. The start is troubling because it has played just two games on the road thus far. This is the Kings last home game before three in a row on the road, and you can bet it does not want to head out on the road with zero momentum. The Kings play Phoenix again tomorrow on the road so they are looking at these two games as an opportunity to get back on track. The Kings have won two straight in the series by nine and 14 points, respectively. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Suns are a soft 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games versus losing teams and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games versus teams with a winning percentage below .400. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Lay the number.
Jack Jones
Kent State +6
This will be the final game of the season for the Golden Flashes. They certainly want to close out their season on a positive note with a win, and it’s clear that they have not packed it in after last week’s performance. They beat Miami Ohio 24-6 at home in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained the Redhawks 447-176 for the game behind 300 yards rushing.
If there’s one strength that Kent State has offensively, it’s the running game. It is averaging 171 yards per game on the ground and 4.8 per carry. Trayion Durham has rushed for 749 yards and six touchdowns, while Dri Archer has added 389 yards and three scores on an eye-opening 7.3 per carry. Ohio is giving up 170 yards per game and 4.3 per carry on the ground this season. It has allowed 207 or more rushing yards in four of its past five games overall.
Ohio has appeared to pack it in at this point. After losing 3-30 at Buffalo on November 5, it went on the road again last week and lost 0-49 at Bowling Green. As you can see, it has been outscored a combined 3-79 in its past two contests overall. This is an Ohio team that lost at home by a final of 23-26 to Central Michigan earlier this season. There’s no question that Kent State is capable of going on the road and beating the Bobcats, especially with its running game.
The road team is 10-3 against the spread in the last 13 meetings in this series. Kent State is a perfect 6-0 against the number in its last six meetings at Ohio. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games following a win by 10 points or more against a conference rival. Ohio is 3-11 against the number in its last 14 MAC games. The Bobcats are 13-31 against the spread in their last 44 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Ohio is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Kent State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet Kent State Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
Boston Celtics +10.5
First off, Houston is on a 43-65 ATS slide as a favorite of 10 or more points. Additionally, playing against Tuesday night favorites of 10 or more points that are off a home win by 10 points or more has resulted in an 84-44 ATS record since 1996. Playing against home favorites of 10 or more points that average 103 ppg or more has resulted in a 122-73 ATS record since 1996 when they're up against a team that is off a loss of 10 points or more. Playing on road underdogs of 10 or more points that have a losing record and are off a road loss by 10 points or more has resulted in a 98-56 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Bet Boston.
Chris Jordan
On an 8-2-1 run with complimentary releases after a 2-0 Sweep on Sunday, giving you the Over in the Jets/Bills game and the Lakers in blowout fashion over the Pistons on Sunday, and scoring Eastern Michigan over Cleveland State last night.
Tonight I want you playing the Minnesota Timberwolves over the Washington Wizards.
Could this really be? Have the Timberwolves turned a corner, and are they embarking on their first winning season after losing eight straight? I can't be sure, no one can, but the fact is they're playing at a mighty high level right now and should destroy a Washington team that looks like same ol', same ol'.
To put it in perspective how well the 'Wolves are playing right now, they'd be in first place if they were in the Atlantic Division and a half-game out in the Southeast Division. They have more wins than the Memphis Grizzlies, L.A. Lakers, Chicago Bulls and the entire Atlantic.
Minnesota is playing well.
And coming in well-rested, after Kevin Love recorded his 10th double-double with 23 points and 12 rebounds in a 106-88 win over Boston on Saturday, I like the Timberwolves to dominate for its fifth win in seven games. What's most intriguing about this team is the offense, which is averaging 108.5 points to rank near the top of the league in scoring. That couples perfectly with the fact the Wizards allow 104.6 points per game, one of the worst marks in the league.
Forget the fact Minnesota has lost eight of nine in Washington, this is a brand new T'Wolves team that is far superior to the Wizards, who are 2-7 and have lost four in a row.
Lay the road chalk.
1♦ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Heat over the Hawks.
Atlanta does come into Miami riding a little hot streak, as the Hawks have won their last pair and four of five overall straight up, while going 6-1 against the spread their last 7 games overall.
Don't think Miami hasn't noticed, and will be on point tonight when they face an Atlanta team that lost touch in all 4 meetings a season ago both straight up and against the spread. Miami winning by 17, 13, 9 and 6 points.
Miami has picked their game up of late as well, winners of three straight and six of their last seven straight up. Miami has also covered in two of their last three wins.
I see this one staying close for a while, but since Atlanta is just 1-9 straight up and 2-8 against the spread the past ten series meetings, I would tend to believe the Hawks will eventually wave the white flag and absorb another straight up and against the spread setback.
3♦ MIAMI
Craig Davis
Your free play winner this Tuesday night is the Minnesota Timberwolves.
While it's way too early to tell how this Washington team is going to finish the season, the early returns are not good. Granted, they've played a lot more roadies than home games thus far, but Minnesota will surely give them a good gauge of where they are right now and where they need to go in order to compete in the Eastern Conference.
The Wizards are 1-2 at home and 1-5 on the road so far this season for an overall record of 2-7. Ouch. This from the team that really dominated at the betting window in the second half of last season.
Funny how the average bettor remembers so much about the prior season and carries it over to the current year, even though the two have nothing to do with each other.
Sure, Washington won a lot of people a lot of money and I remember releasing them several times myself. But I'm also not blind enough to realize this isn't the same team and they are still trying to find their identity.
Minnesota, on the other hand, has had some early success because everyone's healthy and playing well. The Wolves also own the advantage in every single statistical category through the first few weeks of the season (points, FG%, FT%, overall defense, boards, turnovers, bench play, etc.).
Washington just isn't ready yet, and I see the Wolves by 8 tonight.
1♦ MINNESOTA
Scott Delaney
My free winner is in college basketball, as I like Norfolk State to get it done tonight, seeing how it should have won last night against East Carolina.
While the NIT tip-off classic has teams like Arizona, Duke, Alabama and Rutgers - the top four seeds in the event - this Norfolk State team is a program on the rise and certainly looking to prove its worthiness on the D-I level. Fact is, the Spartans should have won last night, rather than letting East Carolina come back and improve to 4-0.
The Pirates, who trailed by 17 points with just over nine minutes in regulation, rallied to defeat Norfolk State, 76-74, in the opening round, at Duke's Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Tonight I expect the Spartans to avenge that loss and win with ease. After all, there are big expectations on campus at Norfolk State, which is favored to win the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, and after last night I can see why.
Keep in mind, these are the same Spartans who went undefeated in MEAC play last season, only to be upset by Bethune-Cookman in the tournament. With a solid nucleus back from last year, including Pendarvis Williams and Rob Johnson, the Spartans know they have to win the tournament to get to the dance, cause nobody else from the MEAC is getting an at-large bid.
Prior to last night's loss, NSU had scored 80 or more points for three straight, and even poured in 90 or more in its previous two contests.
I'll take the Spartans tonight.
3♦ NORFOLK STATE
Brad Wilton
Tonight I am taking underdog Memphis as they play at Oklahoma State as my comp play release.
The Tigers have played just one game thus far - win over Austin Peay by a million - yet they are ranked #11 in the polls. Oklahoma State is off to a 3-0 start and are ranked # 9 in the polls. Travis Ford has a ton of talent back from last year's team, and they are expecting big things in Stillwater this season.
That is all fine and well, but to ask the Cowboys to cover over two baskets seems a little risky against a Memphis team that does not exactly have a "bare cup board" for coach Josh Pastner.
Oklahoma State has been frequently asked to cover some big numbers on their home floor, and after three non-lined games, we shall see if the Pokes can improve on their 1-6-1 against the spread record their last 8 lined home dates. I do not think they can.
Take Memphis plus the points in a game that will be decided by 4 points win or lose.
3♦ MEMPHIS
Sean Michaels
UNLV is 37-5 SU at Thomas & Mack Center during coach Dave Rice's tenture. One of those five losses came in an 86-65 blowout to Cal-Santa Barb last Tuesday, the Rebels' worst home setback since 2003. And that should tell you all you need to know about Rice's team this year.
No more Anthony Bennett. Minus three starters from last season's 25-win team. And now taking on a superior Arizona State club.
The Sun Devils averaged 71.8 points last season with freshman Jahii Carson running the show, a 10-point increase from the year prior. Now the diminutive point guard has them averaging 91.3 points.
For years ASU coach Herb Sendek was not for his defensive schemes. But with Carson at point he's stressing an up-tempo attack. He wants the ball to cross midcourt in three seconds. He wants a good shot taken in 12 seconds. And he makes his team practice using the NBA's 24-second clock.
Carson is averaging a team-leading 18.7 points and five assists through three games. But he's got help in backcourt mate Jermaine Marshall (18 ppg) and 7-2 center Jordan Bachynski (12.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, 4.3 blocks; 120 blocks last year). The Devils are shooting over 59 percent from the field and hitting over 44 percent of their three's.
I'm in Vegas. I follow the Rebels religiously. And tonight I believe ASU simply has too much offensive firepower for UNLV to contend with.
2♦ ARIZONA STATE
Bryan Power
New York vs. Detroit
Pick: New York
Both teams enter this game at 3-6 SU on the year and have struggled of late. So I believe taking the points is the way to go in this Tuesday night matchup, especially considering the Knicks have owned the Pistons of late, going a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS the last seven matchups.....
All seven wins by the Knicks at the Pistons' expense over the last two seasons have come by double digit margins (18.8 PPG). It has been an ugly stretch of basketball in the Motor City of late with the Pistons having not shot 50% in any game since the season opener vs. Washington. Even more disconcerting has been the poor defense as opponents have shot 50% or better against them in five of the last eight contests. Golden State shot a sizzling 60% in a 113-95 win last Tuesday. Having gone just 1-5 SU/ATS its last six overall, the Pistons have allowed 109+ points in four of those losses.
While the Pistons are coming off a 15-point road loss to the Lakers, the Knicks are coming off a 20 point loss - at home - against Atlanta. Fortunately, New York's defense has been much better on the road where they are allowing an average of just 88 points per game. Detroit ranks dead last in the league in opponents' field goal percentage at 48.9%. Look for the inconsistent Knicks to have a hot shooting night.