Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 22

Rob Vinciletti

Yale vs. Seton Hall
Play: Yale +10

Yale taking the points tonight is the free pick as we note that Yale is 6-1 ats in games vs Big East Teams and has covered 28 of the last 38 after scoring 80 or more points last out. Seton Hall has failed to cover 17 of the last 23 times vs an opponents that allow 64 or less points at any time in the season. The Pirates are also a dismal 2-10 ats after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Look for Yale to cover in what looks like a classic big conference vs small conference win and no cover. Take the points tonight with Yale.

David Chan

Edmonton Oilers @ Nashville Predators
PICK: Nashville Predators

The 10-8-2 Edmonton Oilers rumble into Nashville to take on the 10-5-4 Predators.

Devan Dubnyk gets the call in net for the Oilers in the second game of the back to back; he'll be opposed by Pekka Rinne in the first game of a back to back for Nashville.

The Oilers are struggling on the road, and the Predators are dominating at home.

This is the final game of a five game home stand for Nashville.

A big bonus for the Preds tonight is the return David Legwand, whose 15-points tie him with Craig Smith for the team lead.

But also note that Mike Fisher, Martin Erat and Sergei Kostitsyn are all due back in the lineup for the home side:

“For the most part, we’re pretty healthy,” coach Barry Trotz said. “It’s been awhile.”

Rinne is 7-3-1 with a 2.77 GAA in his career vs. the Oilers, but was tagged with the loss in a 3-1 setback on October 17th in Edmonton; the "revenge" factor comes into play here.

The Oilers are continuing their spiral back down into mediocrity, and have dropped five of their last six; after crushing the Blackhawks 9-2 on Saturday, they managed just 18 shots in a 4-1 setback to the Stars last night.

They were 0 for 6 with the man advantage, and have now been outscored 24-9 in their last five losses.

In my humble opinion, this is the very definition of "good line value"; all signs point to a comfortable home victory!

Ben Burns

Maple Leafs @ Lightning
PICK: Under 5.5

We're able to get "plus money" on the "under 5.5" goals here. To put that another way, we're able to get the "under" as a slight underdog. I feel that's providing us with solid value.

For the season, the Lightning have seen the "under" go 4-3 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Meanwhile, the Leafs have seen the "under" go 5-2, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. That's a combined 9-5 (64%) mark. Keep in mind the underdog return on the "under" here.

The Lightning lost 4-2 last time out. They've still seen three of their last five games fall below the total though. Those five games average just 4.8 combined goals.

The Leafs did score seven goals vs. Washington recently, which was impressive. However, they've still seen three of their last four games stay below the total. The "outburst" against the Capitals was the only time in their last eight games in which the Leafs had scored more than three goals. In those other seven games, they averaged a mere 1.57 goals.

The Leafs last visit here was on 1/25. The Lightning won that one by a score of 2-0. Including that result, the "under" is 3-0 the last three times that the Lightning hosted the Leafs. Going back further finds the "under" at 8-3-1 the Leafs' last 12 visits here. Consider grabbing the "plus money" with the "under" 5.5 here.

Mike Davis

La Salle vs. Pittsburgh
Play: La Salle +15½

La Salle has a solid basketball team and they are getting little respect with this line. It is true that Pittsburgh is motivated after an embarrassing loss at home vs. Long Beach State. However, motivation can only take you so far. And I certainly understand that Pittsburgh is one of the premier basketball teams in the country year in and year out lately. And yes, it's true that Pittsburgh doesn't rebuild, they reload. However, this team may be different. It obviously is already a little different as LBSU proved last Wednesday. Pitt lost a good bit off of last year's team and it may take this squad a while to gel.

The line indicates that Pittsburgh will come out and pummel La Salle due in large part to the revenge factor. That has to be it, right? Because this is the same La Salle team that took Villanova to overtime last Tuesday @ Villanova. I understand that Pitt is supposed to be better than Villanova but this line is showing no respect to La Salle.

La Salle has a solid ball club. They are led by their guards; Tyreek Duren, Sam Mills, and Earl Pettis. These three combined for 55 of the 69 points vs. Villanova. We all know that college hoops is guard driven. The Explorers have guards. As a matter of fact, the only thing keeping me from making this a Premium Pick is that one of their best players, Ramon Galloway (transfer from South Carolina), is doubtful with a concussion. When he returns, the Explorers will have 4 very solid guards and they could be a team to watch in the Atlantic 10.

I will gladly take the 15.5 points and make a small play on La Salle.

Red Dog Sports

Yale vs. Seton Hall
Play: Yale +10½

Take Yale +10.5 points as Seton Hall won their home game to start the season in overtime vs. St. Francis. Seton Hall is not deep as only 5 players scored in a recent game. They just played 3 games in 4 days and now return home to play a decent Yale team, that is led by inside threat Greg Mangano, who scored 23 points and 13 rebounds in a game.

Yale gets points from Reggie Willhite, Morgan, Kreisberg, Grace and Martin. Seton Hall does have Pope, Theodore and Fuquan who are good players but I like the underdog getting 10.5 as I write this early Tuesday morning.

Jim Feist

Boise State vs Long Beach State
Pick: Boise State

Boise State is off to a great start (3-0), the third highest scoring team in the nation with 92 ppg. The Broncos are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. the Big West and face struggling Long Beach State. The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Mountain West and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They have had a difficult schedule and have been getting beat badly under the glass. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Play Boise State!

EZWINNERS

Ohio Bobcats -9

Ohio comes into this game having won four straight games and the MAC East Division. Ohio has one of the most balanced offenses in the MAC as they average 208 yards per game rushing to go along with 255 yards through the air. Miami has struggled on offense for most of the season and I expect them to have trouble with Ohio in this game. The Redhawks have struggled on the road and they have struggled in this series. The Bobcats match up very well with the Redhawks and they have had their number in recent years. Ohio has defeated Miami five straight times and all five times have been by double digit margins and I look for that to continue in this game. Lay the points.

JR O'Donnell

Long Beach -9.5

The O'ster looks for the 49ers to bounce back tonight as we have Boise State Broncs visiting the super deep & stung Long Beach State at 10:05 PM EST with each team wanting more recognition. LBS is coming off a huge upset of PITT on their home court (Petersen Event Center) where they have been 58-2 since it's opening against non-conference teams & a tough loss to Sandy St! This is a 49er team that returns all starters from last year, and has all world Casper Ware who we believe will play in the NBA next year. Boise is a good team, but guys PITT is really good at home, and now these Boise Broncos must come to California to face the 49ers off a loss. Take Long Beach State, and lay the 9.5

Lenny Del Genio

Miami (OH) at Ohio
Play: Under

Yes, we know it's the MAC, and yes, we know we've been having a TON of success playing these games Over the total (like last Tues w/ Ball St/N Illinois), but this particular matchup is a different story. Miami is averaging just 17.4 PPG on the road this season while Ohio is allowing just 14 PPG at home. The teams have combined to go Under the total each of the L2 yrs, both big Ohio wins, and we look for another low scoring affair here. Don't miss Lenny's Oddsmaker Mismatch on the side of this game.

Vegas Experts

Edmonton Oilers at Nashville Predators

Might as well play against Edmonton again as they are playing in the second night of back to backs tonight in Nashville. The Predators are off a surprising OT loss to Columbus Saturday night and have revenge here for a 3-1 loss in Edmonton last month. Look for a strong effort by the rested home team. Nashville has only five losses in regulation this season, second fewest in the league. Edmonton has been on a major slide of late, dropping five of six with every loss coming by three goals or more.

Play on: Nashville

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Ohio/ Miami Under 53: Seems like the total is a bit low for a MAC game, but i still can't see these teams hitting 53 in this one. The Ohio Bobcats are 8-3 on the year and they have alrready wrapped up the MAC East, so I can't really see them going all out on offense in this one. I expect them to use that 21st ranked ground attack and their solid defense to shorten the game and get out of there healthy. The Ohio defense has been very good this year, allowing just 343 ypg (31st) and 22.7 ppg (37th). At home this defense has been very stingy, allowing just 14.8 ppg and 292 ypg. The Bobcats at home have allowed just 126 ypg through the air and that is Miami's only means of attack as they are 16th in passing (292.5 ypg), but dead last in the nation in rushing (75 ypg). That 16th ranked passing attack will be tested by not only asolid Ohio pass defense, but by mother nature, as they are expecting heavy rain in the area tonight. The Miami defense has not been that bad for a 4-7 team as they 41st overall (357 ypg) and 39th in points allowed (23.1 ppg). Miami is 25th vs the pass (194.5 ypg) but 69th vs the run (162.7 ypg) and that is another reason I expect Ohio to stick more with the run game. Miami has allowed just 16 ppg in their last 4 games and their last 3 games overall have averaged just 42.7 ppg, while Ohio's home games have averaged just 44 ppg. The weather will play a huge role tonight as this field should be a sloppy mess and that won't translate into a ton of points. Ohio is just looking to get out of this game healthy so expect them to keep more on the ground and just run that clock down. I don't expect this game to put more than 41 points on the board.

Matt Fargo

UCLA vs. Kansas
Play: UCLA +8½

UCLA is coming off its first win of the season following two embarrassing home losses to open the season against Loyola-Marymount and Middle Tennessee St. Granted a win over Chaminade is far from a season changer but it was a very dominating victory and will provide confidence heading into tonight. The 32-point win was good for that as well as the fact the Bruins were able to go deep into their bench to get some needed minutes for the reserves. That meant a break for the starters playing in back-to-back days.

Kansas meanwhile is coming off a tough win over Georgetown that was not decided until the final minute. The Jayhawks are a tough team to figure out early in the season because they are so young and inexperienced but one thing is for sure and that is they should not be laying this many points against a quality team just yet. Some may laugh at calling UCLA a quality team but let's not forget the Bruins came into season ranked in the top 20 so talent is there even though they are off to a slow start.

UCLA outrebounded Chaminade 49-27 and it will have a big edge down low Tuesday as well. The Bruins possess six players on scholarship that are 6'8" or taller while Kansas used only three similar sized players against Georgetown last night. The loss of the Morris twins really put Kansas in a hole down low and they are trying to get a lot of new faces involved even if they don't belong. Kansas has been outrebounded in two of three games this year and the Bruins will have a significant edge on the offensive glass.

Tyshawn Taylor is the lone returning starter and gives the Jayhawks a proven leader up top but the Bruins counter with Lazeric Jones and Jerime Anderson, two senior leaders as well. This has the makings of a back and forth game making the points available here a big premium. The Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record and the Jayhawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. 3* UCLA Bruins

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Yale +9½

Fatigue will be an issue for Seton Hall tonight as it plays its 4th game in 6 days. That alone gives this experienced Yale squad, which hasn't played since Nov. 17, a solid opportunity to cover this number. Yale brings back 4 of 5 starters, including last season's leading scorer Greg Mangano. Seton Hall returns 3 of 5 starters but lost its two leading scorers - Jeremy Hazell and Jeff Robinson. The Bulldogs often don't get the respect they deserve when matched up against the Big East and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the conference as a result. The Pirates are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-10 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games since the beginning of the 2009 season. We'll take the points as Yale keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.

Steve Janus

Kansas -8½

While Kansas might not be as talented as they were a season ago, they are still one of the top teams in the country. Senior guard Tyshawn Taylor and junior forward Thomas Robinson both come in averaging just over 16 ppg and Robinson is averaging a double-double with 11.5 rpg. The Jayhawys only loss is a 10-point setback against a very good Kentucky team, and are coming off a solid win over Georgetown. UCLA is not the team we thought they were coming into the year. The Bruins opened up with back-to-back ugly losses at home to Loyola-Marymount and Middle Tenn St, each by double-digits. Don't be fooled by their latest 92-60 win over a terrible Chaminade program, as UCLA is in for a beating tonight.