SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +118 over ST. LOUIS
Ken Hitchcock has coached the Blues for six games now and they have yet to lose in regulation. St. Louis has won four of those games and lost in OT in the other two. Hitchcock stresses defensive hockey and the Blue Notes have responded by playing a better brand of defense. In the aforementioned four wins they allowed a total of two goals against. That said, this one sets up beautifully for the Kings because the Blue Notes have the Penguins on deck tomorrow night in Pittsburgh and all anyone has heard for two days is Sidney Crosby. No doubt the Blues are looking forward to that tilt and could definitely be caught off guard here. It’s also interesting that Ken Hitchcock has named his goaltenders for these two games. Jaroslav Halak goes tonight and Brian Elliott goes tomorrow, which suggests even the coach wants his best out there for tomorrow. The Kings are coming on. They’ve won three of four with only loss over that span coming against a hungry Detroit team that had dropped five in a row. The Kings have a significant edge in net tonight and they’re also in a favorable situation with the Blues playing the Pens tomorrow. Play: Los Angeles +118 (Risking 2 units).
WUNDERDOG
Florida Int. at Oral Roberts
Pick: Oral Roberts -13
Florida International with their season opening win, put one in the win column for just the 28th time in 3+ seasons. This is a program that has yet to find itself and is headed for another sub-.500 season this year. Oral Roberts had some success making waves in the Big Dance and could be headed for more this season. They have four double-digit scorers and shoot the ball very well at 46.1% for the season. That should be good enough for a big win vs. a Golden panther team struggling to less than 40% of their attempts from the field and have managed just two of their last seven following an ATS loss, while the Golden eagles have rebounded from an ATS loss to go 5-1 ATS in their next outing and have cashed nine of their last 13 as a favorite. Oral Roberts in this one.
OC DOOLEY
Michigan +6.5
This is a major REVENGE game for Michigan who in last year’s NCAA tournament lost an extremely close 73-71 decision versus Duke in a contest which saw the Wolverines climb back from a substantial 15 point deficit. In a Maui Invitational contest yesterday Michigan passed with flying colors in their initial game against a quality opponent as they upset #8 ranked Memphis as an underdog. I will admit that yesterday Duke made it 13 wins in a row in the Maui Invitational with a double-digit triumph over Tennessee, but this relatively inexperienced squad who is minus-three starters from last campaign may be a bit worn down after taking the court 5 different times in a 10-day span. Tonight just happens to mark the first time this season that Duke is facing a “nationally ranked” opponent so one can argue that the Blue Devils (#6 ranking) are once again being the victim of overpricing. Even though Coach K has set an all-time wins records and Duke is 5-0 straight-up, the team is struggling (1-4 ATS) where it counts. My research indicates that tonight is a situation where the Wolverines normally thrive. In the past three years Michigan has gone a most productive 13-3 ATS when facing “top caliber” opposition that outscore the opposition by an average of at least 12 points per game. In the past two campaigns Michigan is UNDEFEATED where it counts (6-0 ATS) when cast as an underdog in a “neutral court” setting such as this
Dave Price
1 Unit Long Beach state -9.5
The fact an undefeated Boise State team is nearly a double-digit dog following a 42-point win smells fishy. History confirms we have reason to red flag this line. In fact, road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOISE ST) that are outscoring their foes by 12 points or more per game on the season, after giving up 65 points or less in consecutive games, are just 41-79 ATS the last 5 seasons. That's just a 34.2 percent win rate. We'll fade the Broncos.
Black Widow
1* La Salle +15
Pitt is simply a team in rebuilding mode right now. The Panthers have yet to cover a spread this season. They barely beat Rider 86-78 as a 22.5-point favorite while allowing 53.6% shooting, and they proceeded to lose to Long Beach State 76-86 as a 13.5-point favorite while allowing 59.3% shooting. Once again, the Panthers are getting way too much respect from odds makers tonight. La Salle is 2-1, with their only loss coming at Villanova 69-76 in overtime as a 15-point underdog. That game certainly showed what this team is capable of, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off the upset tonight. "We have a lot of work to do," Pitt head coach Jamie Dixon said of the loss to Long Beach. "We've been talking about that. We have to get better. We know that. This was disappointing. We recognized going in that we have to be a better team, especially defensively. We always get better as the year goes on.” Apparently, Dixon is more worried about down the road than he is about the here and now. La Salle is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. Big East opponents, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Pittsburgh is 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. Take La Salle and the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arkansas State +22.5
We'll fade the Cardinals this evening as plays against favorites of 10 or more points following 3 straight wins by 15 points or more, provided they are matched up against an opponent that has had a combined score of 125 points or less 2 in straight games, have produced a 26-5 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams falling into this pattern have been favored by an average of 18.3 points but have won by just 13.6 points on average. We'll take the points.
Hollywood Sports
Cleveland State at Kent State
Prediction: Kent State
The Vikings (3-0) made a lot of noise with their 71-58 upset win at Vanderbilt earlier this season but don't forget about the Golden Flashes who also scored a huge upset win on the road against a major conference team when they won at West Virginia by ten points. Kent State (2-0) returns four starters from the the team was the regular season MAC champions. The Golden Flashes are loaded with talented seniors who are hungry to make some noise in the Big Dance this season. They come off a 77-58 win against Alcorn State on Friday -- and they have covered 5 of their last 6 games after a victory. Kent State also presents a tough test to teams unfamiliar with them as they have covered 4 straight games against teams outside the MAC. And this team has covered 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Cleveland State (3-0) comes off a narrow 67-64 win over St. Bonaventure as a 7-point spread -- and they have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 games coming off a win. The Vikings have also failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Horizon League. While Cleveland State does return four starters from their 27-9 team last season that made it to the second round of the NIT, they still will need time to adjust to the graduation of Norris Cole who was the Horizon League's Player of the Year as well as the league's Defensive Player of the Year. The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of under 7 points. This Kent State team may be too much for them tonight. Lay the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Bradley/ Wofford Under 127: Wofford has won BB SoCon titles, but this year they have lost 4 starters and 5 seniors overall from that team, including about 66 ppg. That's alot of offense gone and it has showed in their first 2 games vs Division 1 opponents as they have averaged just 41 ppg and shot 30.7% from the floor, including 20.6% from beyond the Arc. THat's pathetic and today they will be taking on a Bradley team that plays pretty good defense. The Braves have allowed just 64 ppg and 39.4% shooting, plus they have allow teams to hit just 24.6% from beyond the arc. The Braves don't to to push the ball, but they have put up 70.7 ppg. They are pretty efficient team as they have hit 49.4% from the floor, but Wofford has allowed teams to hit just 41.7% of their shots. The Wofford offense is just so bad right now to think that they can score enough for for this game to go Over. both teams like to walk the ball up the floor and both teams play good defense, while only 1 team can score. All the ingredients for a low scoring game.
4 UNIT PLAY
Florida Atlantic +2.5 over Hofstra: The Owls of FAU are just 2-3 on the year, but a solid 3-1 ATS mark vs a schedule that has seen them on the road in 4 of their first 5 games. On that first road trip they had two games out west and lost by just 6 points to Washington and by just 5 points to Portland. FAU is loaded this year with 4 starters back from a team that went 13-3 and won the regular season Sun Belt Title last year, plus their verteran backcourt is among the best of the Mid-Major schools. The Hofstra Pride is not so fortunate as they have lost 3 starters from last years 21-12 team and while they are 2-1 on the year they have not really impressed, especially in their last game when they beat St Francis (NY) by just 4 points and shot just 38.7% from the floor in the process. Hofstra will really miss Charles Jenkins this year (Drafted by G.S.) as he accounted for 45.5% of their scoring last year and while their starting lineup has 2 fifth year senions and 2 fourth year juniors, the bench is very young, so depth will be aproblem for them early one. FAU has the better overall talented and they have already been battle tested with their early schedule so far. I look for them to pull away in the second half as Hofstra just doesn't have the horses to stay with this team for a full 40 minutes.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tennessee/ Memphis Over 144.5: The Vols have really been pushing the ball this year as they have averaged 81.3 ppg so far. Last night they put up just 67 points, but that was vs a tough duke defense and today they will be facing a Memphis defense that has allowed 77 ppg in their two games. last night Tennessee did not hit a 3 points for the first time in over 400 games, so I expect a bunch to drop in this one as they have hit 42.6% from beyond the arc so far. This Memphis team is highly athletic and they like to push the ball as well as they have averaged 79 ppg thus far. last night they were stymied by Michigan and only put up 61 points, but I expect them to put up a lot more tonight vs Tennessee, who did allow 77 points last night to Duke. This should be a fun one to watch.
Lasalle +14.5 over PITTSBURGH: The Pitt panthers are a very talented team, but they are also a very young team and they really haven't played all that well in the early going so far. Pitt is off a home loss to Long Beach State and in their previous game they did not play well as a big favorite vs Rider. The defense for pitt has been shaky as they have allowed 73.3 ppg and 52.6% shooting and they are coming off a game in which they allowed 86 points and 59% shooting. Now they get to face the uptempo game of Lasalle. The Explorers like to push the ball and it has resulted in them putting up 80 ppg and while they have shot just 44.8% overall, they have hit 45.1% from downtown. Pitt can score (83.7 ppg) and Lasalle has allowed 70.7 ppg, due to their uptempo game, bet they have also allowed teams to shoot for just 39.4% from the field and 29.8% from beyond the Arc. I expect the Pitt Youth to struggle in the second half and allow this very good Lasalle team to keep this one close.
2 UNIT PLAY
Notre Dame/ Georgia Under 129: After last night My irish must realize that they are anot a run an gun team like in years past. With all the offense they lost this is a now a half court offense that must also rely on their defense to win games. They played little defense last night, but they did in their previous 4 games where they allowed just 57.5 ppg. Tonight they take on a weak Georgia offense that has averaged just 50.8 ppg and have shot just 38.4% from the floor. The Dawgs can play defense though as they have allowed just 58 ppg and 40.1% shooting from the floor. The Irish got caught up in a run game last night, but in order for this team to win they must slow it down and that is also the way Georgia plays. Not sure this one will hit 120.
1 UNIT PLAY
North Caolina / Tennessee State over 146.5: The Heels offense has exploded the last 2 games as they have put up 96 ppg over that stretch. The Heels have allowed 68.3 ppg on the year and this week shooting Tennessee State squad should be able to break out a bit today. Carolina hits 90+, while state gets around 60.