Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 2,2010

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

When the Cavaliers host the Hawks at the 'Q' in Cleveland Tuesday night they will do so knowing they are 24-5 straight up in the last 29 games in this series. With the Cavs returning home off a straight up home favorite loss and the Hawks off a win, look for Atlanta to dip to 12-18 ATS in this series here tonight. Look for history and the situation surrounding tonight's game to work again. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Tom Freese

Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat

Miami is 3-1 straight up this year. The Heat are 41-17-1 ATS their last 59 games vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%. The Heat are 11-4 ATS when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. Miami is 5-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest and they are 7-3 ATS vs. Western Conference teams. Minnesota is 1-2 straight up this year. The Timberwolves are 7-18-1 ATS their last 26 games overall and they are 3-7 ATS their last 10 road games. The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS when playing with two days of rest. Minnesota is 1-6 ATS on Tuesday.

Scott Spreitzer

Orlando @ New York
PICK: Orlando -6.5

While the Knicks are a different team than the one Orlando has recently dominated, I expect similar results tonight. The Magic are off a horrible shooting performance against the Heat on Friday, but they've had three nights to stew about it and get over it. And that's what Jameer Nelson has said his team is doing. The Magic also went through a grueling practice session on Saturday after playing so badly in the Friday night loss. Orlando is a terrific 18-4 ATS off a double digit road loss during the Stan Van Gundy era. They've also won six of the last seven meetings with New York since their first meeting of the 2009 season. Orlando won those six games by almost 10 ppg, including a current 3-0 SU/ATS run, winning by an average score of 116.7 to 103. The Knicks are going to be better, thanks to their off-season moves and the "reunion" of Amare Stoudemire and Mike D'Antoni. But right now, four of their five starters are new to the team, including a pair of rookies, and I expect growing pains along the way. I'm laying the points with the Magic on Tuesday night.

Jim Feist

Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks
Take: New York Knicks +6½

The NY Knicks have some rebounding muscle with Amare Stoudemire and Wilson Chandler, though they are still uptempo getting outscored by a 99-98 average. Orlando has been much more reserved on offense to start the season, 28th in scoring with 91 ppg. The Knicks will be fired up in front of the home fans against one of the top teams in the East, offering great value as a home dog. Play the NY Knicks.

Frank Jordan

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Portland Trail Blazers +3

Portland suffered their first lost of the season after a 3-0 start as they Bulls beat them in Chicago. Milwaukee is out to a slow start with a 1-2 record, but are coming off their first win. Look for Brandon Roy and company to bounce back off their first lost and hunt down the Bucks in Milwaukee.

Tom Stryker

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Portland Trail Blazers +3

After opening the season with three consecutive wins, Portland ran into a hot-shooting Chicago team last night and dropped its first contest of the season. Off that 12-point loss, the Trailblazers will bounce back nicely at the Bradley Center on Tuesday night.

If you take a look at the series history between these two teams, you'll notice that Portland has the advantage posting a solid 23-12 SU and 21-14 ATS record in the last 35 meetings. Overall, Milwaukee has experienced some trouble with teams from the Western Conference too. In fact, as a non-conference home favorite, the Bucks are a dismal 64-96 ATS including a stiff 8-22 ATS in this role provided the Bucks own a won/loss percentage of .527 or less.

If you're worried about this back-to-back for Portland, rest at ease. The Trailblazers are one of the best teams in the league when coming off a game the night before. Since the 1990-91 season, on foreign soil in the second of a back-to-back, Portland is a respectable 158-113-5 ATS. That's not the best part. If the Blazers were on the road last, enter off a straight up loss and face a foe that holds a won/loss percentage less than .550, this team trend explodes to a phenomenal 44-16-3 ATS!

Quietly, the Trailblazers have produced a profitable 38-20-1 ATS record in their last 59 road games including a juicy 24-9 ATS in this role priced as a favorite or an underdog of +3 or less. Last night, Portland head coach Nate McMillan wasn't pleased with his team's defensive performance and he'll have the Blazers focused on shutting down the Bucks especially on that side of the floor. Take Portland.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Trail Blazers/Bucks UNDER 187

The Under is looking good in the Blazers/Bucks matchup this evening when you consider that plays Under on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more, are 22-4 since 1996. The average posted total in these contests has been 186.1 points, but we have only seen an average of 178.4 points scored in these games. With Portland playing back-to-back, the Blazers will look to slow this game down to give themselves the best chance to win. As a result, I expect this one to come in Under the number.

Larry Ness

Orlando @ New York
PICK: Orlando -7

The Magic should be anxious to get back on the court, having last played Friday night in Miami The Magic and Heat had traded verbal 'shots' at each other all summer long and in the the season's first meeting between the two clubs, it was a clear 'knockout' for the Heat. Miami trounced Orlando 96-70, as the Magic shot a pathetic 30.4 percent from the floor, including a woeful 4-of-24 from three-point range. The "new-look" Knicks have seen Stoudmire (21.3-7.7) and PG Felton make major contributions early on with holdover Chandler (21.0-10.0) also off to a terrific start. The Knicks opened with a five-point win at Toronto but have dropped two games since, by four points in Boston and by five points at home to Portland, blowing a late nine-point lead. The Knicks will be more competitive this season but currently are starting four new players, rookies Timofey Mozgov (Russian center) and second-round pick Landry Fields (Stanford) plus Stoudemire and Felton. This is not a good spot for them, as I expect the Magic to take out some of their frustrations of that loss in Miami on the New Yorkers. Take the road favorite.

EZWINNERS

Arkansas St. Red Wolves +1.5

The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have been a big disappointment this season. Many picked them to win the Sun Belt this season, but they have not lived up to the hype and should not be laying points on the road in my opinion. The Arkansas State Red Wolves are battle tested after playing a schedule that includes non conference games against Auburn, Louisville and Indiana. There was also a lot of hype surrounding MTSU quarterback Dwight Dasher and after some off the field issues he has not yet found the grove, but Arkansas State has a very good quarterback themselves. Ryan Aplin has already passed for over 2,000 yards this season and is completing 60.3 percent of his passes. Aplin has thrown for 13 touchdowns and has rushed for 294 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. The home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams and I look for that success to continue. Take the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +1.53 over WASHINGTON

Rarely do you see NBA teams playing with a sense of desperation this early in the year but that’s exactly the case tonight with this Philadelphia team. New coach Doug Collins was brought in this Off-season expecting to coach a playoff contender and this 0-3 start can’t be what he envisioned when he signed on in the offseason. Collins is a no-nonsense guy who ripped his team after a loss to the lowly Pacers on Saturday and has undoubtedly practiced his team extremely hard since that defeat. The Sixers actually do have talent but have wasted minutes on guys like Spencer Hawes and Jason Kapono who are rightfully now out of the rotation. Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams and Evan Turner are all talented players and on paper are just better than the guys the Wizards will put on the court tonight. Without Gilbert Arenas the Wizards roster is extremely thin with castoffs like Yi Jianlian and Al Thornton playing big minutes while the bench produces the likes of Cartier Martin, Nick Young and Hilton Armstrong. In no universe are any of the five guys just mentioned even rotation caliber players and it’s a result of years of brutal cap management and trades on the part of GM Ernie Grunfeld. For Washington to be -170 on the moneyline is simply a mistake on the books part. The Sixers offer up tremendous value because of their desperation and the fact that they simply have more talented players than the Wizards. Consider this one of the few early season oversights on the bookmakers part. Play: Philadelphia +1.53 (Risking 2 units).

Ottawa +1.27 over TORONTO

Maple Leaf fans everywhere have more conviction, hope and optimism than any fan base in the world. Here’s an outfit that has been selling them and has them convinced that “poo doesn’t stink” for years. They brought in Ron Wilson and Brian Burke, two guys who actually believe in their own mind that they’re smarter than everyone. They’re not. Wilson is a sarcastic, egotistical wise guy that’s easy to dislike. The Leafs aren’t scoring and Wilson keeps mixing up lines trying to find chemistry anywhere. Dion Phaneuf is garbage. He’s got a great shot but he hits the net once every 10 times and he’s a big defensive liability. That’s their captain. The Leafs have been shutout two games in a row and have scored seven goals over its last six games. Lucky for them they’ve been getting good goaltending otherwise they’d have a few 7-0 and 6-1 losses. Ottawa got off to a little bit of a shaky start but don’t put too much into that. They had some key guys on the rack that included Jason Spezza but he’s back and the Sens are playing a whole lot better. In fact, they’ve won three of its last five with only losses coming against Montreal and Boston. Furthermore, when these two met earlier in the year, the Sens played its worst game of the season and lost 5-1 to these Leafs. That’s something they haven’t forgotten and you can be damn sure they’ll show up tonight and give it everything they have. Leafs a huge false favorite and anytime you’re wagering against them at this point you’re getting true value. When your second leading goal scorer is Colton Orr, nothing more needs to be said. Play: Ottawa +1.27 (Risking 2 units).

Sam Martin

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Boston Celtics

Value lies with the road favorite here, as Detroit not only comes into this game winless at 0-3, but have both Villanueva and Hamilton banged up (both are listed as questionable). Boston should give a focused effort after dropping their lone road contest to this point against Cleveland, and traditionally this is a very good road team. Celts know they can't afford to drop to 0-2 on the road, thus losing any intimidation factor in future road contests. Detroit can't match up here position by position, and we expect Boston to win this one by double-digits!

Hollywood Sports

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

Memphis (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 109-89 win over Minnesota but they remain banged up in the middle. Marc Gasol returned to play in that game but remains hobbled while Zach Randolph is listed as questionable tonight with a back injury. The result is that the Grizzlies are limited in their ability to bang on the boards -- as evidenced by the their -7.0 net rebounding margin so far this season. Los Angeles (3-0) on the other hand is cruising right along this season and should control the boards tonight as they enjoy a +2.3 net rebounding margin this season. The Lakers have added some new pieces in Steve Blake, Matt Barnes and Theo Ratliff this year. Said Phil Jackson about the improvement of the defending NBA Champions: "This year, I think we have better chemistry, in terms of the pieces fitting better together coming off the bench ... I knew as soon as we signed those free agents that we would be better, just because you know what they bring." The Lakers come off a decisive 107-83 win over Golden State Sunday night -- and they have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Lay the points with the Lakers tonight.

John Ryan

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Ottawa Senators

5* graded play on Ottawa as they take on Toronto in NHL action set to start at 7:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Ottawa will win this road game tonight. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-14 making 22.5 units since 2005. Play on road teams against the money line after a blowout loss by three goals or more in their previous game facing an opponent after getting shutout in their previous game. Toronto is just 4-12 against the money line (-10.8 Units) when playing against a bad team with a win percentage of 25% to 40% over the last two seasons. Ottawa is a solid 14-2 against the money line (+13.2 Units) when playing with two days rest over the last two seasons. Take Ottawa.

Rocketman

Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa comes in with a 4-7 record on the season while Toronto is now 5-5 overall this year. Ottawa is 1-5 this year against division opponents. Ottawa is 1-4 on the road this season. Toronto is 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs Ottawa the past 3 years. Senators are 5-11 in their last 16 overall. Senators are 4-11 in their last 15 vs. Eastern Conference. Senators are 2-7 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Senators are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Senators are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Senators are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog. Senators are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. Northeast. Maple Leafs are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. Northeast. Home team is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. Senators are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Toronto. Senators are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!