Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Trail Blazers/Bucks UNDER 187
The Under is looking good in the Blazers/Bucks matchup this evening when you consider that plays Under on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more, are 22-4 since 1996. The average posted total in these contests has been 186.1 points, but we have only seen an average of 178.4 points scored in these games. With Portland playing back-to-back, the Blazers will look to slow this game down to give themselves the best chance to win. As a result, I expect this one to come in Under the number.
Black Widow
1* on Memphis Grizzlies +8.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are overvalued tonight as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. L.A. doesn't have a 100% Kobe Bryant on the floor, and they will be without Andrew Bynum until late November. The Grizzlies did get blown out in their first game of the season by the Atlanta Hawks, but Marc Gasol missed that game and Zach Randolph went out with a back injury in the first quarter. Both big men are expected to start tonight and the Grizzlies should be at full strength. Even without Randolph in their last 2 games, the Grizzlies won at Dallas 91-90 and thumped Minnesota 109-89 at home. This is one of the best young teams in the league and they have proven they can play with the Lakers. These teams split their two most recent meetings, with L.A. winning 99-98 on a last-second shot by Kobe Bryant and Memphis winning 95-93 in their victory. The Grizzlies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Lakers, including 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in L.A. Take Memphis and the points.
Jack Jones
Detroit Pistons +6.5
I know the Pistons have started 0-3 this season, but with their slow start comes some nice value on Detroit tonight. The Pistons and Celtics have one of the better rivalries in the Eastern Conference, and Detroit certainly won't lay down to the defending Eastern Conference champs. Two of the Pistons losses this season have come by 1 and 3 points, and their lone home loss was a 104-105 setback against the Oklahoma City Thunder as 5-point underdogs. So really, they don't have a bad loss yet considering they've been at least a 4-point dog in every game they've played, covering two of them.
Boston has injury problems early in the season that will prevent them from reaching their potential. Kendrick Perkins is out until early February with a knee injury and Shaq also has a knee ailment that has him listed as doubtful tonight. Not to mention, guard Delonte West won't be eligible until November 17 as he continues serving his 10-game suspension. The Pistons still have plenty of talent to be competitive, with veterans like Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, sharpshooter Ben Gordon and the up-and-coming Rodney Stuckey who is one of the more underrated point guard in the game. The Pistons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Roll with Detroit Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks -3
This is a tough spot for Portland. This will be Portland's 4th straight road game. Plus, the Trail Blazers just played in Chicago last night. Playing back-to-back on the road against a rested Milwaukee team will not be an easy situation to overcome. The last time Portland paid Milwaukee a visit, it was handed a 108-101 defeat. I'm expecting a similar result this evening.
The Bucks were one of the best investments in the NBA last season. In fact, they are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games. They have especially been valuable when laying points. The Bucks are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this matchup.
The Bucks got a big boost of confidence from Saturday night's double-digit win over Charlotte, and considering they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a home win by 10 points or more, I'm ready to lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5
Reasons the Cavs cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games. This is a 34-9 ATS System hitting 79.1% since 1996.
2.) This Cleveland team still has a lot of talent despite losing Lebron James. That was evident when they beat the Boston Celtics in their season-opener 95-87. Coming off back-to-back losses, this team is showing great value as a home dog tonight. The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued right now after their 3-0 start. Bet the Cavs at home.
OC Dooley
Blazers +3
The intangible surrounds the untimely early death yesterday of legendary Portland enforcer Maurice Lucas who was a key cog of the franchise back in the glory days of the 1970’s. Even though the current Blazers are for the most part unaware of his exploits, they have been informed in the past 24 hours what he meant to the franchise courtesy of various media outlets. More importantly Portland has WON 3 of 4 games this campaign and in the triumphs they have outscored the opposition by a whopping 85-49 point count in the final quarter. I will admit that the Blazers endured their first loss last night in Chicago, but my database research indicates that they have gone an outstanding 16-4 ATS long term in “unrested” situations such as this. In addition Portland has enjoyed great success when playing AT Milwaukee where star Brandon Roy has a career average of 23 points per game. The last couple of times he has played at the Bradley Center, Portland big man LaMarcus Aldridge (52 points, 8 rebounds) has literally been off the charts. As for Milwaukee they have begun a brand new season without star guard Michael Redd (knee) who is out indefinitely while another guard Chris Douglas-Roberts (eye) is also on the shelf for most likely most of this month. The Bucks best active player Brandon Jennings is coming off a massive “triple double” but all that has done is inflate tonight’s price tag which has risen from an opening figure of 2 points. In the past two years the Blazers are 9-1 ATS/ROAD versus poor passing opponents averaging “20 or less” assists per contest. As mentioned earlier Portland is on a mamouth 16-4 ATS roll when taking the court “unrested”