VEGAS EXPERTS
New Jersey Nets at Denver Nuggets
Points have certainly been at a premium in Nets games this season with the team averaging an NBA low 84.9 PPG, a big reason why they've gone Under in eight straight and 11 of 13 games overall. Denver contributes to the Under tendencies of tonight's game with a 7-0 Under mark following a game where the combined score was 205 points or more. They come off a 112-93 win over Chicago.
Play on: Under
LT Profits
Florida A&M Rattlers vs Rider Broncs
There is almost nothing better than getting up in the morning and tuning in to some early college hoops during the holiday season, and that is the case here when the Florida A&M Rattlers face the Rider Broncs with an 11:00 AM ET tip-off at Cancun, Mexico.
This may seem like a high spread at first glance, but we feel that it is justified as we see Rider winning this contest by at least 20 points. The Bromcs have been bridesmaids in the MAAC the last several years, and they are looking to take the next step this season.
They certainly made an immediate impression, going into Starkville and upsetting the Mississippi State Bulldogs 88-74 as 15-point underdogs in their season opener. Sure, they have now lost two straight, but those were on the road at Kentucky and Virginia, which is certainly forgivable. They will appreciate this drastic drop n class, and they will have the best player on the court in dominant senior guard Ryan Thompson.
While we feel that Rider us ready for some stiffer competition that past seasons, we do not feel the same is true about Florida A&M. The Rattlers are trying to build on their NCAA Tournament appearance, but they are off to an 0-4 start whle losing by a whopping average of -27.6 points per game. Granted, they have yet to play a home game, but their closest defeat was by 14 points at Cleveland State, and Rider does not represent a drop in class from CSU.
We look or Rider to make an impression in this tournament with a romp today.
Pick: Rider -15.5
BIG AL
Ball St. at Western Michigan
Prediction: Ball St.
Last week, Ball State played its final home game of the season, and was blown out by Central Michigan, 35-3. Now, off that disappointing loss, the Cardinals must travel to Kalamazoo for their final game of the season to take on the Broncos, who won their previous game in blowout fashion, 35-14, over Eastern Michigan. The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade Ball State in this situation, but I wouldn't do that if I were you. Consider that, over the last 30 seasons, Road teams are a 67% ATS play in their final game, if they lost at home the previous week by 10+ points, and their foe is off a win by 10+ points. This system has had one play this year, and it came last week when Kansas State got the $$$$ over Nebraska (after getting drilled 38-12 by Missouri the previous week in its final home game). Take the points with Ball State.
Marc Lawrence
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors return home off an eight-point home loss to Orlando Sunday evening knowing they are are 9-1 ATS as a favorite on this floor against the Pacers. With Indiana 1-4 ATS in games off a loss this season, look for the Raptors to get back on the win track tonight.
ALEX SMART
Delaware @ Siena
PICK: Delaware +19
The Siena Saints have to be angry with the fact that they lost to the strongest opponent on their schedule to date when they lost to the Temple Owls over the weekend, but on Tuesday night, the Delaware Blue Hens are going to get the better of the ATS proceedings.
The Saints are inevitably going to score their points against a Delaware team that has struggled defensively this season. However, out of the blocks this season, there has to be some concern about how the loss of G Kenny Hasbrouck has affected the offense. Averaging 71.0 points per game won't cut it for a team that is hoping to make a lot of noise out of the Metro Atlantic this season, and neither will a 25.8% shooting percentage from downtown. The Saints are also going to have to shoot free throws better to cover numbers, as 64.5% from the charity stripe leaves a lot to be desired.
The Blue Hens are coming off of an awful season, but down the stretch of the year, they started to figure it out by beating a bunch of team that they maybe had no business beating. Delaware was fantastic in out-of-conference play against mid-majors last season, going 5-0 ATS in their first five games of the '08-'09 season. Even though they were blown away by Temple and Bucknell, a 97-94 victory for the Blue Hens has to be encouraging.
Delaware is also 7-2 ATS in its L/9 conference games, while Siena is 0-7 ATS in its L/7 against teams from the Colonial Athletic Conference. These two teams haven't met in recent memory, but Delaware is 3-0 SU against the Saints since '97. The Blue Hens probably won't win it in Albany, but expect to see this game a heck of a lot closer than the oddsmakers are banking on. Book it!!!
Play: Delaware Blue Hens
Rob Vinciletti
Ball State vs. Western Michigan
Play: Ball State +10.5
Ball.St has really taken it on the chin this year after going 12-2 last year. Tonight they finish their abysmal season at Western Michigan. Though the Cardinals have just one win on the year they have played decent on defense against some better conference teams than W. Michigan. In games against Temple and N. Illinois they were right in the game at the end. Losing by 5 and 6 points respectively. Ball.St has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and are 10-1 ats off a double digit loss,if tonight's opponent is off a double digit win. Western Michigan needs this game to become bowl eligible as they are 5-6 on the year. However 10.5 points seems just to much to lay here tonight. The Broncos are just 3-7 ats on the year and should get a good game out of Ball.St tonight.
Jim Feist
New Jersey Nets vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Under 203
The Nets are terrible at 0-13, but the only way possible for them to try and compete is to slow the pace WAY down. The Nets shoot 40% from the field as a team and average 85 ppg, both last in the. New Jersey is 11-2 under the total and on an 8-0 run under. There's no way they can run with uptempo Denver, especially in the thin, mountain air. Denver can play good defense, despite an uptempo offense, and they are on a 4-2 run under the total. Look for the awful visitors to slow the pace to a crawl. Play the Nets/Nuggets Under the total.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets -12.5
Bottom Line: Nobody wants to be the team that gives New Jersey win No. 1 and I don't see Denver being that team tonight. The Nuggets have already beaten the Nets by 28 points in New Jersey this season. Denver is just too deep and too talented not to take care of business by at least 15 points at home tonight. Denver is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 16.4 points in these games. Lastly, plays on home teams - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game), are 24-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.
EZWINNERS
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -5
The home team has won and covered the spread in four straight meetings between Toronto and Indiana and I look for that trend to continue in this meeting. The Pacers are 2-2 on the road this season, but their two wins are against New York and New Jersey, two of the worst teams in the league that have a combined record of 3-23. In Indiana's two losses against Atlanta and Charlotte the Pacers were beat by double digits. The Raptors are 4-2 at home this season and should not have a hard time covering this small number. Lay the points.
Tom Freese
New York at La Lakers
New York is 24-8 ATS their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning record and they are 25-10-1 ATS their last 36 games as road dogs. The Knicks are 9-3-1 vs. an opponent that scored 100 or more points in their last game and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 visits at the Lakers. Los Angeles is in a 60-31 ATS Play Against System that says to play against home favorites of 10 or more points on Tuesday. NBA Double Digit favorites are just 7-16-1 ATS this year. PLAY ON NEW YORK +
Bryan Leonard
Wofford at Illinois
The Terriers are a veteran team that returns five starters from a year ago. They have already proven themselves on the road by winning at Georgia and posting close losses at Pittsburgh by 3 and Bradley by 2. Wofford spreads the scoring around and is led by junior Noah Dahlman who averages 14.8 ppg. The Terriers slow the game down and take great care of the ball. They rank in the Top 10% of the country in assist to turnover ratio. This is a veteran team that won't be intimidated in this building. Illinois is led in scoring by two freshman. While they enter play tonight at 3-0 they have played a very easy schedule of Southern Illinois- Edwardsville, Northern Illinois and Presbyterian. This is a team with a lot of talent but they haven't faced a quality team like the one they will see tonight. Wofford keeps this one very close as they easily stay within the posted number.
PLAY WOFFORD
DUNKEL INDEX
Ball State at Western Michigan
The Cardinals look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10 1/2 points or more. Ball State is the pick (+11) according to Dunkel, which has Western Michigan favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+11)
Game 101-102: Ball State at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 71.194; Western Michigan 75.964
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 5; 48
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 11; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+11); Under
NBA
Indiana at Toronto
The Raptors look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a favorite. Toronto is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Raptors favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-5)
Game 501-502: Indiana at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.758; Toronto 120.906
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 7; 207 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 5; 214
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-5); Under
Game 503-504: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 110.578; Washington 112.973
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 195 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3; 198
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under
Game 505-506: Golden State at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 115.941; Dallas 125.533
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 9 1/2; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 13; 217
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+13); Over
Game 507-508: New Jersey at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 110.764; Denver 125.714
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 15; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 13; 203
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-13); Over
Game 509-510: Oklahoma City at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 117.064; Utah 125.419
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 7; 197
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-7); Under
Game 511-512: New York at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.702; LA Lakers 122.739
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 10; 204
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 13 1/2; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+13 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Colgate at TCU
The Horned Frogs look to build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 Monday games. TCU is the pick (-15) according to Dunkel, which has the Horned Frogs favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: TCU (-15)
Game 513-514: Florida State at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 68.592; Florida 69.578
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1
Vegas Line: Florida by 4
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+4)
Game 515-516: Princeton at George Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 50.316; George Washington 55.297
Dunkel Line: George Washington by 5
Vegas Line: George Washington by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+10 1/2)
Game 517-518: Cornell at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 60.821; Syracuse 77.573
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-13 1/2)
Game 519-520: Ball State at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 49.826; Temple 69.474
Dunkel Line: Temple by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Temple by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-17 1/2)
Game 521-522: Central Michigan at Wright State
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 48.495; Wright State 64.252
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 16
Vegas Line: Wright State by 15
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-15)
Game 523-524: Drexel at Pennsylvania
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 52.434; Pennsylvania 49.352
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 3
Vegas Line: Drexel by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+3 1/2)
Game 525-526: Loyola Marymount at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 52.083; Tulsa 68.640
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-15 1/2)
Game 527-528: Troy at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 56.066; UAB 66.401
Dunkel Line: UAB by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: UAB by 11
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+11)
Game 529-530: New Mexico State at CS-Fullerton
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 52.806; CS-Fullerton 59.496
Dunkel Line: CS-Fullerton by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 5
Dunkel Pick: CS-Fullerton (-5)
Game 531-532: Oral Roberts vs. Sam Houston State
Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 55.392; Sam Houston State 54.854
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 1
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts
Game 533-534: Florida A&M vs. Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Florida A&M 37.075; Rider 51.591
Dunkel Line: Rider by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Rider by 16
Dunkel Pick: Florida A&M (+16)
Game 535-536: Kentucky vs. Cleveland State
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 68.330; Cleveland State 57.644
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (+12 1/2)
Game 537-538: Virginia vs. Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 56.870; Stanford 61.979
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 5
Vegas Line: Stanford by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-3 1/2)
Game 571-572: The Citadel at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 50.842; West Virginia 77.845
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 27
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 24
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-24)
Game 573-574: Delaware at Siena
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 50.336; Siena 67.881
Dunkel Line: Siena by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 19
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+19)
Game 575-576: Loyola-MD at Dartmouth
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 52.280; Dartmouth 44.367
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 8
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-5 1/2)
Game 577-578: Canisius at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 51.979; Buffalo 57.857
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 6
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+8 1/2)
Game 579-580: Eastern Michigan at SE Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 51.241; SE Missouri State 39.468
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 12
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-8 1/2)
Game 581-582: Chattanooga at Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 52.541; Missouri 78.173
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 25 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri by 29
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (+29)
Game 583-584: Tennessee State at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 42.586; Iowa State 68.321
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 25 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 23
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-23)
Game 585-586: Wofford at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 55.226; Illinois 69.849
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-13 1/2)
Game 587-588: Furman at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 42.222; Rice 57.898
Dunkel Line: Rice by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Rice by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (-10 1/2)
Game 589-590: Idaho State at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 48.780; Utah State 65.440
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-14 1/2)
Game 591-592: Sacramento State at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 40.598; Idaho 57.779
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 17
Vegas Line: Idaho by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (+18 1/2)
Game 593-594: Boise State at Eastern Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 47.113; Eastern Washington 53.498
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (-2)
NHL
Columbus at Montreal
The Canadiens look to take advantage of a Columbus team that is coming off a 7-4 loss to the Rangers and is 2-7 in its last 9 games following a loss by 3 or more goals in the previous game. Montreal is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Candiens favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135)
Game 1-2: Columbus at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.303; Montreal 12.527
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135); Under
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Ball State (1-10, 5-5 ATS) at Western Michigan (5-6, 3-7 ATS)
The Cardinals conclude a miserable 2009 season when they visit Western Michigan in a battle between Mid-American Conference West Division rivals.
Ball State went through the 2008 regular season undefeated at 12-0, capped by a 45-22 home rout of Western Michigan as a 10-point home favorite. But the Cardinals were stunned in the MAC Championship Game, losing 42-24 to Butler as a 15-point favorite, precipitating a 1-12 SU slide (5-7 ATS in lined action). On Wednesday, Ball State hosted West Division-leader Central Michigan in a nationally televised contest and got blown out 35-3 as a 14½-point underdog, finishing on the wrong end of a 511-233 yardage discrepancy.
The Broncos are coming off three consecutive road games, losing the first two to Kent State (26-14 as a 2½-point underdog) and Michigan State (49-14 as a 20½-point pup) before knocking off Eastern Michigan 35-14 as a 14-point chalk 10 days ago. Western Michigan hasn’t defeated consecutive Division I-A opponents all year, and its easy spread-cover against Eastern Michigan ended an 0-4 ATS slide. Prior to shutting down still-winless Eastern Michigan, the Broncos’ defense had been torched for at least 26 points in eight of their first nine Division I-A contests.
The Cardinals’ only victory in its last 13 games was a 29-27 road triumph at lowly Eastern Michigan as a 2½-point favorite. Ball State was at least competitive in its other three MAC road games, losing all three by seven, five and six points, going 3-0 ATS (all as an underdog). Meanwhile, Western Michigan has played just four home games so far (three lined contests), winning three but failing to cover in the last two.
Including last year’s 23-point home rout, Ball State has won two in a row, four out of five and six out of eight in this rivalry, with the SU winner covering the spread in all eight contests. In fact, the winner has gotten the money in each of the last 10 meetings.
Despite their miserable SU record this season, the Cardinals do carry several positive pointspread trends, including 21-7 on the road, 16-5 as a road underdog, 5-1 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points, 12-5 in November, 9-3 after a double-digit home loss and 12-5 after a non-cover. However, they have failed to cover in four straight games against opponents with a losing record.
The ATS trends are all negative for Western Michigan, including 3-10 overall, 1-3 at home, 6-14-1 against MAC opponents, 0-5 after a SU win, 5-12 as a favorite, 3-8 as a home chalk, 2-6 when laying 3½ to 10 points and 1-3-1 after a bye.
Ball State is riding a slew of “under” streaks, including 5-1 overall (all in MAC play), 8-2 on the road, 4-1 on Tuesday, 5-0 as an underdog and 9-2 in November. The Broncos are on “under” runs of 10-5 overall, 4-2 at home and 3-0 after a SU win, but the over is 13-5 in their last 18 as a home favorite and 8-0 in their last eight as a home chalk of 3½ to 10 points. Finally, four of the last five series meetings have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE
NBA
Oklahoma City (7-7, 8-6 ATS) at Utah (7-6, 6-7 ATS)
The Jazz, who are in the midst of a six-game homestand, shoot for their fourth consecutive victory when they host the Thunder in a Northwest Division clash at EnergySolutions Arena.
Oklahoma City is coming off Sunday’s 101-85 loss at the Lakers, failing to cover as a 10½-point road underdog. The Thunder have followed up a three-game road winning streak with consecutive losses in Los Angeles and Orlando (108-94 on Wednesday). In fact, Oklahoma City has struggled with consistency all year and has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last six outings, scoring 101, 100 and 127 points in three victories and 93, 94 and 85 points in three defeats. The SU winner is 13-1 ATS in Thunder games this year (10-0 ATS in the last 10).
Utah needed overtime to dispose of Detroit 100-97 on Saturday, coming up short as an 8½-point home favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run. The Jazz have picked up the pace defensively, holding seven of their last 10 opponents under 100 points after giving up an average of 108.3 points in their first three contests.
The Jazz are 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) in the last eight meetings with Oklahoma City, with Utah winning and covering the final two matchups last year. In the last four battles in Salt Lake City, the Jazz are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, winning by point margins of 21, 14, 7 and 20 points. Still, Oklahoma City has cashed in six of its last eight trips to EnergySolutions Arena, and the ‘dog has gotten the money in 11 of the last 16 meetings.
The Thunder are on ATS runs of 36-17 after a SU defeat, 21-7 after a non-cover and 15-5 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, although they’ve covered in four of five overall, the Jazz are in pointspread ruts of 0-4 against Northwest Division rivals, 2-10 after a SU win and 1-6 after two days of rest. Also, the underdog is 7-2 ATS in Utah’s last nine games and 6-3 ATS in Oklahoma City’s last nine.
Oklahoma City carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 9-3-1 on the road, 4-0-1 on Tuesday, 10-3 after a SU loss and 9-2 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-0 in Utah’s last four divisional games, 9-3 in its last 12 after a SU win and 12-5 in its last 17 after a non-cover. On the flip side, 15 of the Jazz’s last 21 home games have stayed low, and the under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
Freddy Wills
Florida State vs. Florida
Play: Florida State +4
I really like the length of the FSU team as they return all key members with the exception of Toney Douglas. This team is now scoring points coming from all different places. In the front court Dulkys, Kitchen, and Louks all can score in double figures and in the front court Reid, Singleton, Alabi, and Gibson are as big of a front court you will see. Gibson/Alabi have 19 blocks already and they will play against a Florida team that struggles against teams with length and size. FSU a 25 win team also adds in McDonalds All America Michael Snaer 6'5 guard is an outside threat averaging 8 ppg thus far. Like I said this team just has too man weapons and there are too many unkowns for Florida that lost their two best players in Calathes to Greece pro contract, and Speights NBA.
Rocketman
Gonzaga vs Wisconsin
Play: Gonzaga +2
Gonzaga is 14-2 SU and 10-3 ATS last 3 years when playing in November. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS on Tuesday the past 3 years. Gonzaga is scoring 82.2 points per game overall this year. Badgers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Badgers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Tuesday games. Badgers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. We'll recommend a small play on Gonzaga tonight!