Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 25

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Alabama vs. Iowa State
The Cyclones take on an Alabama team that is coming off an 81-67 win over Southern Miss and is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games following a SU victory in their previous game. Iowa State is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Cyclones favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-6).

Game 511-512: Houston at Harvard (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 52.429; Harvard 65.802
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-11 1/2)

Game 513-514: TX-Arlington at Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Arlington 50.980; Kentucky 83.621
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 32 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 30 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-30 1/2)

Game 515-516: Troy at Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 52.302; Southern Mississippi 60.419
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 8
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+10 1/2)

Game 517-518: Hofstra at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 57.598; South Florida 59.028
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: South Florida by 4
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (+4)

Game 519-520: Pennsylvania at Temple (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 46.235; Temple 57.293
Dunkel Line: Temple by 11
Vegas Line: Temple by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+14 1/2)

Game 521-522: Akron at Penn State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 57.949; Penn State 59.572
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+4)

Game 523-524: Arkansas at SMU (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 62.797; SMU 70.373
Dunkel Line: SMU by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: SMU by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-5 1/2)

Game 525-526: Loyola-Chicago at TX-San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 56.340; TX-San Antonio 43.755
Dunkel Line: Loyola Chicago by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 1
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (-1)

Game 527-528: Miami (FL) at Charlotte (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 64.424; Charlotte 63.977
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+5 1/2)

Game 529-530: Air Force at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 51.074; Colorado 61.065
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 10
Vegas Line: Colorado by 16
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+16)

Game 531-532: CS-Fullerton at USC (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 51.888; USC 54.108
Dunkel Line: USC by 2
Vegas Line: USC by 5
Dunkel Pick: CS-Fullerton (+5)

Game 533-534: Delaware at Stanford (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 50.334; Stanford 70.736
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 23 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+23 1/2)

Game 559-560: Virginia Tech vs. Northern Iowa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 51.625; Northern Iowa 60.216
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 10
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+10)

Game 561-562:Miami (OH) vs. Northwestern (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 50.047; Northwestern 56.398
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+8 1/2)

Game 571-572: Western Illinois at William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 47.302; William & Mary 54.427
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 7
Vegas Line: William & Mary by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (+9 1/2)

Game 573-574: Tennessee State at Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 45.001; Virginia 75.331
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 30 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia by 33
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+33)

Game 575-576: SE Missouri State at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 49.018; Bowling Green 54.473
Dunkel Line Bowling Green by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+7 1/2)

Game 577-578: The Citadel at Florida State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 42.889; Florida State 62.912
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 20
Vegas Line: Florida State by 22
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+22)

Game 579-580: St. Peter's at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 46.929; Rutgers 58.945
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 12
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-9 1/2)

Game 581-582: NE-Omaha at Nebraska (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 51.585; Nebraska 69.367
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 18
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-15 1/2)

Game 583-584: Eastern Illinois at Creighton (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 46.444; Creighton 72.054
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 25 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-17 1/2)

Game 585-586: Northern Arizona at Middle Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 52.147; Middle Tennessee State 61.367
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 9
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-6 1/2)

Game 587-588: IUPUI at Drake (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 42.640; Drake 49.201
Dunkel Line: Drake by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Drake by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: IUPUI (+9 1/2)

Game 589-590: Idaho at Boise State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 49.536; Boise State 61.428
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 12
Vegas Line: Boise State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+14 1/2)

Rob Vinciletti

Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards -6.5

The Wizards have covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. The Hawks are in a tough spot as road dogs with 3 or more days rest that are off a home favored win and cover have covered just once the last 19 seasons vs an opponent off a road favored win and cover at -4 or less like the Wizards losing by an average 12 points. The Hawks are an up and down team and have failed to cover 14 of 18 on Tuesdays. Look for the Wizards to win and cover.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets
Pick: Denver Nuggets

A tough situational spot for Chicago, a long way from home and playing the second of a back to back, at Utah last night. Making matters worse is the team isn't healthy. Derrick Rose missed his fourth straight game due to a sore left hamstring, Pau Gasol sat his third in a row with a left calf strain and Kirk Hinrich was out with a chest contusion for Friday's 105-87 loss at Portland. Taj Gibson is also banged up. Aftrer beating the Los Angeles Clippers for its sixth straight road win, short-handed Chicago lost at Sacramento and Portland by a combined 33 points. The Bulls are on a 6-13 ATS run, 2-6 ATS vs. the West. Denver is a tough place to play with the thin mountain air, so look for the rested Nuggets to run at the tired visitors. The Nuggets are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 8-2 ATS against the Eastern Conference. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Bulls are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Denver.

Jesse Schule

New Jersey vs. Vancouver
Pick: Vancouver

The Canucks will host former backup netminder Corey Schneider and the New Jersey Devils Tuesday night. They look to ride remain hot, off a 4-1 thrashing of the Chicago Blackhawks at home on Sunday night.

The Devils are in a tough spot, playing the final game of a four game West Coast road trip, and they've lost two of three so far. Goals haven't come easy for New Jersey, ranking 22nd in the league averaging 2.5 goals per game.

Poor special teams have also plagued the Devils, who rank 28th in the NHL on the penalty kill, with a kill rate of just 74%. They have been slightly better than average on the power play, but the Canucks own one of the league's top penalty killing units, holding the opposition off the scoreboard better than 85% of the time.

Ryan Miller owns the top record in the NHL among "starting" goaltenders, going 13-3. He's also owned the Devils in his career, going 7-2-2 with a 1.54 GAA in his last 11 starts.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Larry Ness

Edmonton vs. Dallas
Pick: Under

The Edmonton defense and goaltending has been so bad that after the team’s 7-1 drubbing at the hands of the Blackhawks on Saturday the Oilers fired goaltenders' coach Frederik Chabot. It will be interesting to see if that change will be a difference for this team but the fact remains that the combination of Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth has resulted in a listless 3.36 goals-against-average along with an .888 save percentage between the both of them. On the road, the Oilers are allowing 4.1 goals-per-game. Edmonton has also played EIGHT of its last 11 games over the number after a loss at home by at least three goals. Dallas has won two straight games after a 5-4 win over the LA Kings on Saturday. The Stars average 3.0 goals-per-game on their home ice while surrendering 3.5 goals-per-game. Even worse, over the last five games, Dallas has allowed 3.8 goals-per-game. Goaltender Kari Lehtonen has been a big disappointment at home this season where he has a 3.17 goals-against-average along with a .897 save percentage. Take the Over.

DAVE COKIN

HOFSTRA AT SOUTH FLORIDA
PLAY: HOFSTRA +4

Hofstra is projected to be one of the most improved teams in the land this season. Joe Mihalich didn’t just say so long to Niagara when he took the job with the Pride, he also took a couple of star players with him. I think it speaks volumes that both Juan’ya Green and Ameen Tanksley opted to sit out an entire season as they followed their coach to his new gig.

Green and Tanksley are off to good starts with Hofstra and the Pride, while not the favorite, are looking as though they’re going to be serious title contenders in the CAA this season. Hofstra will have some occasional issues on the glass as they’re not blessed with a great deal of height. But the Mihalich touch is already evident in several other aspects of their game, and the on court chemistry is strong according to onlookers.

South Florida is also looking as though it’s a program on the rise. Orlando Antigua is a rookie head coach, but he’s been sitting next to John Caliper for the last several years. That is almost certainly going to pay off when it comes to recruiting, and the on court results thus far have been pretty good as well. Chris Perry, wo enjoyed a solid freshman season for the Bulls, has taken what sure looks to be a substantial step forward, and he’s going to be a handful inside for any team that lines up against South Florida.

There’s already a common opponent for these two teams, as each took a road loss at North Carolina State. South Florida gave the Wolfpack a tougher battle, but that could actually work against them a bit here. That duel took place on Sunday, so it’s a fairly quick turnaround for USF. Hofstra also played on Sunday, but they were able to coast some against Wagner in a game that was pretty much done at halftime.

Hofstra was a scrappy bunch last season that earned a decent dividend for those who backed the Pride on the road. That task might be a bit tougher this time around, as the big lines won’t be nearly as plentiful, and I think it’s safe to say that the major improvement being projected for the Pride is not even remotely under the radar for college hoop junkies. But that doesn’t mean they won’t be a worthwhile play in the right spots.

I’m going to be interested to see if things get better at home for USF. The Bulls have been a miserable spread team at home lately, but with the arrival of Antigua there will hopefully be a boost in excitement. But, and I don’t mean this to sound insulting, Tampa is not exactly the most intense sports town on the planet, and USF really has troubles attracting crowds to its home games. It’s just not an imposing scenario for the guests, and until that changes I’ll likely continue to give the Bulls what amounts to a minimal home court edge.

I can see tonight’s game being tight all the way, and while the power ratings indicate the number is about where it should be, I feel as though there’s still a little value to be had with emerging Hofstra. I’ll go ahead and snare the available points with the Pride tonight.

EZWINNERS

Arkansas +5

SMU is just 2-2 to start this season and the absence of Marcus Kennedy is a big reason for their struggles. The Mustangs have also struggled taking care of the ball as they are turning it over at an alarming rate. Arkansas is a very solid team and I expect their full court pressure to add to SMU's troubles of taking care of the ball. This is Arkansas first road game of the season, but the Hogs have experience and shouldn't be phased. Take the points.

LT Profits

Arkansas vs. SMU
Pick: Arkansas +4

The SMU Mustangs were probably the most notable snub by the NCAA Tournament committee last season with the committee citing their weaker schedule as a reason, so the ‘Stangs have scheduled more power conference schools in non-conference play this year such as the Arkansas Razorbacks of the SEC. Unfortunately 2-2 SMU lost its first major challenge vs. an Indiana team that lost at home to Eastern Washington last night, and it also lost its other tough game at Gonzaga. Things do not get any easier here vs. 25th ranked Arkansas, as the 3-0 Razorbacks rank 22nd in the country in effective field goal percentage at 58.8 percent thanks to ranking fourth in three-point shooting at a tremendous 51.4 percent! The Hogs should be able to take advantage of SMU’s 203rd ranked three-point defense, even here in Dallas. SMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.

Joe Gavazzi

Ohio -3

Miami has covered the last 3 in this MAC East series rivalry. Red Hawks are an improving 4-1 ATS of late, after they covered a 14 point road impost in a 34-27 loss at Central Michigan 2 weeks ago, when the Chips scorched them for 209+ yards, both running and passing. Still, they are just 2-9 SU overall with yet another season that they will spend home for the holidays. Ohio U played a valiant game in a 21-14 loss to perennial league champion N. Illinois last Tuesday night. They out-rushed the Huskies 203-141 and out-gained them 344-325. At 5-6 SU, they have the added incentive of becoming Bowl eligible with this victory. With the leadership of HC Solich, the superior defense and the better balanced offense, look for them to get the job done tonight.

Jack Jones

Washington Wizards -4

The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value as a small home favorite to the Atlanta Hawks tonight. We'll take advantage and back them as they continue their run toward the top of the Eastern Conference with another victory Tuesday.

The Wizards have opened 9-3 this season and find themselves in second place in the Eastern Conference. They have even been battling through injuries during this start, but now are getting healthy with the recent return of Bradley Beal. The addition of Paul Pierce this offseason to provide leadership has certainly helped this young, talented squad.

I have been very impressed with the Wizards of late as they have won five of their last six with their only loss coming by a mere three points to Dallas. They beat Cleveland 91-78 in their last home game, then avoided a letdown in a 111-100 win at Milwaukee last time out on Saturday. They have had two days of rest since and should be well-rested and ready to go.

Atlanta is 6-5 this season, but it has done most of its damage at home, where it is 5-1. It has been another story on the road as the Hawks are 1-4 away from home, getting outscored by an average of 7.8 points per game. Their defense is yielding a whopping 107.4 points per game on the road this season.

Washington has had Atlanta's number over the past two years. It is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Atlanta with its only loss coming on the road last year by a final of 99-101 in overtime. All four victories came by four points or more, including two by double-digits.

The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a win by more than 10 points. Washington is 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Atlanta.

Jimmy Boyd

USC Trojans -5

The books have missed the mark on this one. USC should be a much bigger favorite at home against Cal State Fullerton. These two teams played last year at USC and the Trojans won convincingly 76-62 as a 6-point favorite. While both of these teams lost a good sized amount of talent from their teams a year ago, USC is in a much better shape to rebound, as they just brought in the No. 18 ranked recruiting class this season.

Fullerton is just 1-2 on the season with the only win come at home against San Jose State 70-66, who is 1-3 to start the year. The Trojans are simply being undervalued after losing a two of their last three, but both defeats came against quality opponents in Akron and Penn State. USC is going to be looking to take out that frustration on Cal State and I see any reason why they don't win here by double-digits.

USC is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Big West Conference and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 against teams who have won 40% or less of their games. Fullerton is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games, 2-9-1 in their last 12 following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a % (35-9) system in favor of the Trojans.

Red Dog Sports

Citadel vs. Florida State
Play: Citadel +21½

The Citadel is 2-2 with a one point loss at VMI and a 13 point loss to Air Force. Horgan, Moore, Harris and Marshall can all score. Florida State is an average ACC team that has to have their eyes set on Thanksgiving and the football team's rivalry game with Florida on Saturday. I think FSU wins by 15 to 20 so take the Citadel +21.5.

Steve Janus

Nebraska-Omaha +15½

I think we are getting some great value here Nebraska-Omaha against in-state counterpart Nebraska. The Mavericks went on the road and beat Marquette 97-89 as a 17-point underdog last time out, while the Cornhuskers were upset on the road by Rhode Island. This Nebraska-Omaha team has a couple of talented guards back from last year in C.J. Carter and Devin Patterson, who combined for 51 points 11 assists and 8 rebounds against Marquette. They also added in Wichita State transfer Jake White, a talented freshman in Tre'Shawn Thurman and get back a rebounding machine in senior Mike Rostampour. I look for the Mavericks to give Nebraska all they can handle and easily keep this game within 15-points.

Key Trends - Omaha is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Nebraska is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

John Ryan

Michigan vs. Villanova
Play: Villanova -4½

Villanova essentially muscled their way into the final with a strong win over VCU 77-53 and easily covered the two points favorite spread. The Wildctas had been struggling mightily from beyond the arc hitting on just 26% of those shots. However, against No. 14 VCU they connected at a high rate. The Wildcats shot 58.6 percent from the field in the second half and knocked down six of 10 three-point tries. Things really heated up after the Rams (3-1) scored the first six points of the period to lead, 36-32, and prompt coach Jay Wright to call a timeout. They added a bit more motion and made increased ball movement speed and had several wide open perimeter shots. This more aggressive play led to a 16-0 run and the game was essentially over at that point. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 100-54 ATS mark for 65% winners since 1997. Play on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (VILLANOVA) after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game committing eight or less turnovers.

John Ryan's Featured Package